The hormone receptor oestrogen receptor-α (ER) orchestrates physiological mammary gland development, breast carcinogenesis and the progression of breast tumours into lethal, treatment-refractory systemic disease. Selective antagonism of ER signalling has been one of the most successful therapeutic approaches in oncology, benefiting patients as both a cancer preventative measure and a cancer treatment strategy. However, resistance to anti-oestrogen therapy is a major clinical challenge. Over the past decade, we have gained an understanding of how breast cancers evolve under the pressure of anti-oestrogen therapy. This is best depicted by the case of oestrogen-independent mutations in the gene encoding ER (ESR1), which are virtually absent in primary breast cancer but highly prevalent (20-40%) in anti-oestrogen-treated metastatic disease. These and other findings highlight the 'evolvability' of ER+ breast cancer and the need to understand molecular processes by which this evolution occurs. Recent development and approval of next-generation ER antagonists to target ESR1-mutant breast cancer underscores the clinical importance of this evolvability and sets a new paradigm for the treatment of ER+ breast cancers.

Cancer has been a leading cause of death for decades. This dismal statistic has increased efforts to prevent the disease or to detect it early, when treatment is less invasive, relatively inexpensive and more likely to cure. But precisely how tissues are transformed continues to provoke controversy and debate, hindering cancer prevention and early intervention strategies. Various theories of cancer origins have emerged, including the suggestion that it is 'bad luck': the inevitable consequence of random mutations in proliferating stem cells. In this Review, we discuss the principal theories of cancer origins and the relative importance of the factors that underpin them. The body of available evidence suggests that developing and ageing tissues 'walk a tightrope', retaining adequate levels of cell plasticity to generate and maintain tissues while avoiding overstepping into transformation. Rather than viewing cancer as 'bad luck', understanding the complex choreography of cell intrinsic and extrinsic factors that characterize transformation holds promise to discover effective new ways to prevent, detect and stop cancer before it becomes incurable.