The origin of plastids was a major evolutionary event that paved the way for an astonishing diversification of photosynthetic eukaryotes. Plastids originated by endosymbiosis between a heterotrophic eukaryotic host and cyanobacteria, presumably in a common ancestor of the primary photosynthetic eukaryotes (Archaeplastida). A single origin of primary plastids is well supported by plastid evidence but not by nuclear phylogenomic analyses, which have consistently failed to recover the monophyly of Archaeplastida hosts. Importantly, plastid monophyly and nonmonophyletic hosts could be explained under scenarios of independent or serial eukaryote-to-eukaryote endosymbioses. Here, we assessed the strength of the signal for the monophyly of Archaeplastida hosts in four available phylogenomic data sets. The effect of phylogenetic methodology, data quality, alignment trimming strategy, gene and taxon sampling, and the presence of outlier genes were investigated. Our analyses revealed a lack of support for host monophyly in the shorter individual data sets. However, when analyzed together under rigorous data curation and complex mixture models, the combined nuclear data sets supported the monophyly of primary photosynthetic eukaryotes (Archaeplastida) and recovered a putative association with plastid-lacking Picozoa. This study represents an important step toward better understanding deep eukaryotic evolution and the origin of plastids. [Archaeplastida; Bayesian; chloroplast; maximum likelihood; mixture model; ortholog; outlier loci; paralog; protist.].

Evolutionary models account for either population- or species-level processes but usually not both. We introduce a new model, the FBD-MSC, which makes it possible for the first time to integrate both the genealogical and fossilization phenomena, by means of the multispecies coalescent (MSC) and the fossilized birth-death (FBD) processes. Using this model, we reconstruct the phylogeny representing all extant and many fossil Caninae, recovering both the relative and absolute time of speciation events. We quantify known inaccuracy issues with divergence time estimates using the popular strategy of concatenating molecular alignments and show that the FBD-MSC solves them. Our new integrative method and empirical results advance the paradigm and practice of probabilistic total evidence analyses in evolutionary biology.[Caninae; fossilized birth-death; molecular clock; multispecies coalescent; phylogenetics; species trees.].

Birth-death stochastic processes are the foundations of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth-death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is nontrivial. Here, we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This unification includes both models where the process is the same for all lineages and those in which it varies across types. We also outline a straightforward procedure for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth-death(-sampling) models that will hopefully allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. By rederiving existing single-type birth-death sampling models, we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models. [Birth-death processes; epidemiology; macroevolution; phylogenetics; statistical inference.].

Color polymorphism-two or more heritable color phenotypes maintained within a single breeding population-is an extreme type of intraspecific diversity widespread across the tree of life. Color polymorphism is hypothesized to be an engine for speciation, where morph loss or divergence between distinct color morphs within a species results in the rapid evolution of new lineages, and thus, color polymorphic lineages are expected to display elevated diversification rates. Multiple species in the lizard family Lacertidae are color polymorphic, making them an ideal group to investigate the evolutionary history of this trait and its influence on macroevolution. Here, we produce a comprehensive species-level phylogeny of the lizard family Lacertidae to reconstruct the evolutionary history of color polymorphism and test if color polymorphism has been a driver of diversification. Accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty with multiple phylogenies and simulation studies, we estimate an ancient origin of color polymorphism (111 Ma) within the Lacertini tribe (subfamily Lacertinae). Color polymorphism most likely evolved few times in the Lacertidae and has been lost at a much faster rate than gained. Evolutionary transitions to color polymorphism are associated with shifts in increased net diversification rate in this family of lizards. Taken together, our empirical results support long-standing theoretical expectations that color polymorphism is a driver of diversification.[Color polymorphism; Lacertidae; state-dependent speciation extinction models; trait-dependent diversification.].

In Bayesian phylogenetics, the coalescent process provides an informative framework for inferring changes in the effective size of a population from a phylogeny (or tree) of sequences sampled from that population. Popular coalescent inference approaches such as the Bayesian Skyline Plot, Skyride, and Skygrid all model these population size changes with a discontinuous, piecewise-constant function but then apply a smoothing prior to ensure that their posterior population size estimates transition gradually with time. These prior distributions implicitly encode extra population size information that is not available from the observed coalescent data or tree. Here, we present a novel statistic, $\Omega$, to quantify and disaggregate the relative contributions of the coalescent data and prior assumptions to the resulting posterior estimate precision. Our statistic also measures the additional mutual information introduced by such priors. Using $\Omega$ we show that, because it is surprisingly easy to overparametrize piecewise-constant population models, common smoothing priors can lead to overconfident and potentially misleading inference, even under robust experimental designs. We propose $\Omega$ as a useful tool for detecting when effective population size estimates are overly reliant on prior assumptions and for improving quantification of the uncertainty in those estimates.[Coalescent processes; effective population size; information theory; phylodynamics; prior assumptions; skyline plots.].

The Neotropics harbor the most species-rich freshwater fish fauna on the planet, but the timing of that exceptional diversification remains unclear. Did the Neotropics accumulate species steadily throughout their long history, or attain their remarkable diversity recently? Biologists have long debated the relative support for these museum and cradle hypotheses, but few phylogenies of megadiverse tropical clades have included sufficient taxa to distinguish between them. We used 1288 ultraconserved element loci spanning 293 species, 211 genera, and 21 families of characoid fishes to reconstruct a new, fossil-calibrated phylogeny and infer the most likely diversification scenario for a clade that includes a third of Neotropical fish diversity. This phylogeny implies paraphyly of the traditional delimitation of Characiformes because it resolves the largely Neotropical Characoidei as the sister lineage of Siluriformes (catfishes), rather than the African Citharinodei. Time-calibrated phylogenies indicate an ancient origin of major characoid lineages and reveal a much more recent emergence of most characoid species. Diversification rate analyses infer increased speciation and decreased extinction rates during the Oligocene at around 30 Ma during a period of mega-wetland formation in the proto-Orinoco-Amazonas. Three species-rich and ecomorphologically diverse lineages (Anostomidae, Serrasalmidae, and Characidae) that originated more than 60 Ma in the Paleocene experienced particularly notable bursts of Oligocene diversification and now account collectively for 68% of the approximately 2150 species of Characoidei. In addition to paleogeographic changes, we discuss potential accelerants of diversification in these three lineages. While the Neotropics accumulated a museum of ecomorphologically diverse characoid lineages long ago, this geologically dynamic region also cradled a much more recent birth of remarkable species-level diversity. [Biodiversity; Characiformes; macroevolution; Neotropics; phylogenomics; ultraconserved elements.].

Application of genetic data to species delimitation often builds confidence in delimitations previously hypothesized using morphological, ecological, and geographic data and frequently yields recognition of previously undescribed cryptic diversity. However, a recent critique of genomic data-based species delimitation approaches is that they have the potential to conflate population structure with species diversity, resulting in taxonomic oversplitting. The need for an integrative approach to species delimitation, in which molecular, morphological, ecological, and geographic lines of evidence are evaluated together, is becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we integrate phylogenetic, population genetic, and coalescent analyses of genome-wide sequence data with investigation of variation in multiple morphological traits to delimit species within the Antarctic barbeled plunderfishes (Artedidraconidae: Pogonophryne). Pogonophryne currently comprises 29 valid species, most of which are distinguished solely by variation in the ornamentation of the mental barbel that projects from the lower jaw, a structure previously shown to vary widely within a single species. However, our genomic and phenotypic analyses result in a dramatic reduction in the number of distinct species recognized within the clade, providing evidence to support the recognition of no more than six species. We propose to synonymize 24 of the currently recognized species with five species of Pogonophryne. We find genomic and phenotypic evidence for a new species of Pogonophryne from specimens collected in the Ross Sea. Our findings represent a rare example in which the application of molecular data provides evidence of taxonomic oversplitting on the basis of morphology, clearly demonstrating the utility of an integrative species delimitation framework.[ddRADseq; multispecies coalescent; Notothenioidei; SNPs; Southern Ocean.].

The evolution of key innovations-unique features that enable a lineage to interact with the environment in a novel way-may drive broad patterns of adaptive diversity. However, traditional tests of the key innovation hypothesis, those which attempt to identify the evolutionary effect of a purported key innovation by comparing patterns of diversity between lineages with and without the key trait, have been challenged on both conceptual and statistical grounds. Here, we explore alternative, untested hypotheses of the key innovation framework. In lizards, adhesive toepad structures increase grip strength on vertical and smooth surfaces such as tree trunks and leaves and have independently evolved multiple times. As such, toepads have been posited as a key innovation for the evolution of arboreality. Leveraging a habitat use data set applied to a global phylogeny of 2692 lizard species, we estimated multiple origins of toepads in three major clades and more than 100 origins of arboreality widely across the phylogeny. Our results suggest that toepads arise adaptively in arboreal lineages and are subsequently rarely lost while maintaining arboreal ecologies. Padless lineages transition away from arboreality at a higher rate than those with toepads, and high rates of invasion of arboreal niches by nonarboreal padbearing lineages provide further evidence that toepads may be a key to unlocking evolutionary access to the arboreal zone. Our results and analytical framework provide novel insights to understand and evaluate the ecological and evolutionary consequences of key innovations.[Arboreality; ecological transition; key innovation; macroevolution; phylogenetic comparative methods.].

Islands are thought to facilitate adaptive radiation by providing release from competition and predation. Anole lizards are considered a classic example of this phenomenon: different ecological specialists ("ecomorphs") evolved in the Caribbean Greater Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico), resulting in convergent assemblages that are not observed in mainland Latin America. Yet, the role of islands in facilitating adaptive radiation is more often implied than directly tested, leaving uncertain the role of biogeography in stimulating diversification. Here, we assess the proposed "island effect" on anole diversification using Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods that explicitly incorporate rate heterogeneity across the tree and demonstrate two cases of would be false positives. We discovered that rates of speciation and morphological evolution of island and mainland anoles are equivalent, implying that islands provide no special context for exceptionally rapid diversification. Likewise, rates of evolution were equivalent between island anoles that arose via in situ versus dispersal-based mechanisms, and we found no evidence for island-specific rates of speciation or morphological evolution. Nonetheless, the origin of Anolis is characterized by a speciation pulse that slowed over time-a classic signature of waning ecological opportunity. Our findings cast doubt on the notion that islands catalyzed the anole adaptive radiation and instead point to a key innovation, adhesive toe pads, which facilitated the exploitation of many arboreal niches sparsely utilized by other iguanian lizards. The selective pressures responsible for arboreal niche diversification differ between islands and the mainland, but the tempo of diversification driven by these discordant processes is indistinguishable. [Anolis; Caribbean; key innovation; morphological evolution; RevBayes; speciation.].

Changes in speciation and extinction rates are key to the dynamics of clade diversification, but attempts to infer them from phylogenies of extant species face challenges. Methods capable of synthesizing information from extant and fossil species have yielded novel insights into diversification rate variation through time, but little is known about their behavior when analyzing entirely extinct clades. Here, we use empirical and simulated data to assess how two popular methods, PyRate and Fossil BAMM, perform in this setting. We inferred the first tip-dated trees for ornithischian dinosaurs and combined them with fossil occurrence data to test whether the clade underwent an end-Cretaceous decline. We then simulated phylogenies and fossil records under empirical constraints to determine whether macroevolutionary and preservation rates can be teased apart under paleobiologically realistic conditions. We obtained discordant inferences about ornithischian macroevolution including a long-term speciation rate decline (BAMM), mostly flat rates with a steep diversification drop (PyRate) or without one (BAMM), and episodes of implausibly accelerated speciation and extinction (PyRate). Simulations revealed little to no conflation between speciation and preservation, but yielded spuriously correlated speciation and extinction estimates while time-smearing tree-wide shifts (BAMM) or overestimating their number (PyRate). Our results indicate that the small phylogenetic data sets available to vertebrate paleontologists and the assumptions made by current model-based methods combine to yield potentially unreliable inferences about the diversification of extinct clades. We provide guidelines for interpreting the results of the existing approaches in light of their limitations and suggest how the latter may be mitigated. [BAMM; diversification; fossils; macroevolutionary rates; Ornithischia; PyRate.].

Erratum in Syst Biol. 2021 Dec 16;71(1):259.

Target enrichment is becoming increasingly popular for phylogenomic studies. Although baits for enrichment are typically designed to target single-copy genes, paralogs are often recovered with increased sequencing depth, sometimes from a significant proportion of loci, especially in groups experiencing whole-genome duplication (WGD) events. Common approaches for processing paralogs in target enrichment data sets include random selection, manual pruning, and mainly, the removal of entire genes that show any evidence of paralogy. These approaches are prone to errors in orthology inference or removing large numbers of genes. By removing entire genes, valuable information that could be used to detect and place WGD events is discarded. Here, we used an automated approach for orthology inference in a target enrichment data set of 68 species of Alchemilla s.l. (Rosaceae), a widely distributed clade of plants primarily from temperate climate regions. Previous molecular phylogenetic studies and chromosome numbers both suggested ancient WGDs in the group. However, both the phylogenetic location and putative parental lineages of these WGD events remain unknown. By taking paralogs into consideration and inferring orthologs from target enrichment data, we identified four nodes in the backbone of Alchemilla s.l. with an elevated proportion of gene duplication. Furthermore, using a gene-tree reconciliation approach, we established the autopolyploid origin of the entire Alchemilla s.l. and the nested allopolyploid origin of four major clades within the group. Here, we showed the utility of automated tree-based orthology inference methods, previously designed for genomic or transcriptomic data sets, to study complex scenarios of polyploidy and reticulate evolution from target enrichment data sets.[Alchemilla; allopolyploidy; autopolyploidy; gene tree discordance; orthology inference; paralogs; Rosaceae; target enrichment; whole genome duplication.].

The Lesser Sunda Archipelago offers exceptional potential as a model system for studying the dynamics of dispersal-driven diversification. The geographic proximity of the islands suggests the possibility for successful dispersal, but this is countered by the permanence of the marine barriers and extreme intervening currents that are expected to hinder gene flow. Phylogenetic and species delimitation analyses of flying lizards (genus Draco) using single mitochondrial genes, complete mitochondrial genomes, and exome-capture data sets identified 9-11 deeply divergent lineages including single-island endemics, lineages that span multiple islands, and parapatrically distributed nonsister lineages on the larger islands. Population clustering and PCA confirmed these genetic boundaries with isolation-by-distance playing a role in some islands or island sets. While gdi estimates place most candidate species comparisons in the ambiguous zone, migration estimates suggest 9 or 10 species exist with nuclear introgression detected across some intra-island contact zones. Initial entry of Draco into the archipelago occurred at 5.5-7.5 Ma, with most inter-island colonization events having occurred between 1-3 Ma. Biogeographical model testing favors scenarios integrating geographic distance and historical island connectivity, including an initial stepping-stone dispersal process from the Greater Sunda Shelf through the Sunda Arc as far eastward as Lembata Island. However, rather than reaching the adjacent island of Pantar by dispersing over the 15-km wide Alor Strait, Draco ultimately reached Pantar (and much of the rest of the archipelago) by way of a circuitous route involving at least five overwater dispersal events. These findings suggest that historical geological and oceanographic conditions heavily influenced dispersal pathways and gene flow, which in turn drove species formation and shaped species boundaries. [Biogeography; genomics, Indonesia; lizards; phylogeography; reptiles].

The fairy wrasses (genus Cirrhilabrus) are among the most successful of the extant wrasse lineages (Teleostei: Labridae), with their 61 species accounting for nearly 10$\%$ of the family. Although species complexes within the genus have been diagnosed on the basis of coloration patterns and synapomorphies, attempts to resolve evolutionary relationships among these groups using molecular and morphological data have largely been unsuccessful. Here, we use a phylogenomic approach with a data set comprising 991 ultraconserved elements (UCEs) and mitochondrial COI to uncover the evolutionary history and patterns of temporal and spatial diversification of the fairy wrasses. Our analyses of phylogenetic signal suggest that most gene-tree incongruence is caused by estimation error, leading to poor resolution in a summary-coalescent analysis of the data. In contrast, analyses of concatenated sequences are able to resolve the major relationships of Cirrhilabrus. We determine the placements of species that were previously regarded as incertae sedis and find evidence for the nesting of Conniella, an unusual, monotypic genus, within Cirrhilabrus. Our relaxed-clock dating analysis indicates that the major divergences within the genus occurred around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary, followed by extensive cladogenesis of species complexes in the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Biogeographic reconstruction suggests that the fairy wrasses emerged within the Coral Triangle, with episodic fluctuations of sea levels during glacial cycles coinciding with shallow divergence events but providing few opportunities for more widespread dispersal. Our study demonstrates both the resolving power and limitations of UCEs across shallow timescales where there is substantial estimation error in individual gene trees.[Biogeography; concatenation; gene genealogy interrogation; gene trees; molecular dating; summary coalescent; UCEs.].

Erratum in Syst Biol. 2022 Apr 19;71(3):775.

In cryptic amphibian complexes, there is a growing trend to equate high levels of genetic structure with hidden cryptic species diversity. Typically, phylogenetic structure and distance-based approaches are used to demonstrate the distinctness of clades and justify the recognition of new cryptic species. However, this approach does not account for gene flow, spatial, and environmental processes that can obfuscate phylogenetic inference and bias species delimitation. As a case study, we sequenced genome-wide exons and introns to evince the processes that underlie the diversification of Philippine Puddle Frogs-a group that is widespread, phenotypically conserved, and exhibits high levels of geographically based genetic structure. We showed that widely adopted tree- and distance-based approaches inferred up to 20 species, compared to genomic analyses that inferred an optimal number of five distinct genetic groups. Using a suite of clustering, admixture, and phylogenetic network analyses, we demonstrate extensive admixture among the five groups and elucidate two specific ways in which gene flow can cause overestimations of species diversity: 1) admixed populations can be inferred as distinct lineages characterized by long branches in phylograms; and 2) admixed lineages can appear to be genetically divergent, even from their parental populations when simple measures of genetic distance are used. We demonstrate that the relationship between mitochondrial and genome-wide nuclear $p$-distances is decoupled in admixed clades, leading to erroneous estimates of genetic distances and, consequently, species diversity. Additionally, genetic distance was also biased by spatial and environmental processes. Overall, we showed that high levels of genetic diversity in Philippine Puddle Frogs predominantly comprise metapopulation lineages that arose through complex patterns of admixture, isolation-by-distance, and isolation-by-environment as opposed to species divergence. Our findings suggest that speciation may not be the major process underlying the high levels of hidden diversity observed in many taxonomic groups and that widely adopted tree- and distance-based methods overestimate species diversity in the presence of gene flow. [Cryptic species; gene flow; introgression; isolation-by-distance; isolation-by-environment; phylogenetic network; species delimitation.].