Biological events are often initiated when a random "searcher" finds a "target," which is called a first passage time (FPT). In some biological systems involving multiple searchers, an important timescale is the time it takes the slowest searcher(s) to find a target. For example, of the hundreds of thousands of primordial follicles in a woman's ovarian reserve, it is the slowest to leave that trigger the onset of menopause. Such slowest FPTs may also contribute to the reliability of cell signaling pathways and influence the ability of a cell to locate an external stimulus. In this paper, we use extreme value theory and asymptotic analysis to obtain rigorous approximations to the full probability distribution and moments of slowest FPTs. Though the results are proven in the limit of many searchers, numerical simulations reveal that the approximations are accurate for any number of searchers in typical scenarios of interest. We apply these general mathematical results to models of ovarian aging and menopause timing, which reveals the role of slowest FPTs for understanding redundancy in biological systems. We also apply the theory to several popular models of stochastic search, including search by diffusive, subdiffusive, and mortal searchers.

Worldwide, the recent SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected more than 670 million people and killed nearly 67.0 million. In Africa, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was approximately 12.7 million as of January 11, 2023, that is about 2% of the infections around the world. Many theories and modeling techniques have been used to explain this lower-than-expected number of reported COVID-19 cases in Africa relative to the high disease burden in most developed countries. We noted that most epidemiological mathematical models are formulated in continuous-time interval, and taking Cameroon in Sub-Saharan Africa, and New York State in the USA as case studies, in this paper we developed parameterized hybrid discrete-time-continuous-time models of COVID-19 in Cameroon and New York State. We used these hybrid models to study the lower-than-expected COVID-19 infections in developing countries. We then used error analysis to show that a time scale for a data-driven mathematical model should match that of the actual data reporting.

A stochastic hierarchical model for the evolution of low grade gliomas is proposed. Starting with the description of cell motion using a piecewise diffusion Markov process (PDifMP) at the cellular level, we derive an equation for the density of the transition probability of this Markov process based on the generalised Fokker-Planck equation. Then, a macroscopic model is derived via parabolic limit and Hilbert expansions in the moment equations. After setting up the model, we perform several numerical tests to study the role of the local characteristics and the extended generator of the PDifMP in the process of tumour progression. The main aim focuses on understanding how the variations of the jump rate function of this process at the microscopic scale and the diffusion coefficient at the macroscopic scale are related to the diffusive behaviour of the glioma cells and to the onset of malignancy, i.e., the transition from low-grade to high-grade gliomas.

Reconstructing the ancestral state of a group of species helps answer many important questions in evolutionary biology. Therefore, it is crucial to understand when we can estimate the ancestral state accurately. Previous works provide a necessary and sufficient condition, called the big bang condition, for the existence of an accurate reconstruction method under discrete trait evolution models and the Brownian motion model. In this paper, we extend this result to a wide range of continuous trait evolution models. In particular, we consider a general setting where continuous traits evolve along the tree according to stochastic processes that satisfy some regularity conditions. We verify these conditions for popular continuous trait evolution models including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, reflected Brownian Motion, bounded Brownian Motion, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross.

Some genes can promote or repress their own expressions, which is called autoregulation. Although gene regulation is a central topic in biology, autoregulation is much less studied. In general, it is extremely difficult to determine the existence of autoregulation with direct biochemical approaches. Nevertheless, some papers have observed that certain types of autoregulations are linked to noise levels in gene expression. We generalize these results by two propositions on discrete-state continuous-time Markov chains. These two propositions form a simple but robust method to infer the existence of autoregulation from gene expression data. This method only needs to compare the mean and variance of the gene expression level. Compared to other methods for inferring autoregulation, our method only requires non-interventional one-time data, and does not need to estimate parameters. Besides, our method has few restrictions on the model. We apply this method to four groups of experimental data and find some genes that might have autoregulation. Some inferred autoregulations have been verified by experiments or other theoretical works.

Recombination is a fundamental evolutionary force, but it is difficult to quantify because the effect of a recombination event on patterns of variation in a sample of genetic data can be hard to discern. Estimators for the recombination rate, which are usually based on the idea of integrating over the unobserved possible evolutionary histories of a sample, can therefore be noisy. Here we consider a related question: how would an estimator behave if the evolutionary history actually was observed? This would offer an upper bound on the performance of estimators used in practice. In this paper we derive an expression for the maximum likelihood estimator for the recombination rate based on a continuously observed, multi-locus, Wright-Fisher diffusion of haplotype frequencies, complementing existing work for an estimator of selection. We show that, contrary to selection, the estimator has unusual properties because the observed information matrix can explode in finite time whereupon the recombination parameter is learned without error. We also show that the recombination estimator is robust to the presence of selection in the sense that incorporating selection into the model leaves the estimator unchanged. We study the properties of the estimator by simulation and show that its distribution can be quite sensitive to the underlying mutation rates.

We present a phase field model for vesicle growth or shrinkage induced by an osmotic pressure due to a chemical potential gradient. The model consists of an Allen-Cahn equation describing the evolution of the phase field parameter that describes the shape of the vesicle and a Cahn-Hilliard-type equation describing the evolution of the ionic fluid. We establish conditions for vesicle growth or shrinkage via a common tangent construction using free energy curves. During the membrane deformation, the model ensures total mass conservation of the ionic fluid, and we weakly enforce a surface area constraint of the vesicle. We develop a stable numerical scheme and an efficient nonlinear multigrid solver to evolve the phase and concentration fields, and we use this to evolve the fields to near equilibrium for 2D vesicles. Convergence tests confirm an [Formula: see text] accuracy for our scheme and near-optimal convergence for our multigrid solver. Numerical results reveal that the diffuse interface model captures the main features of cell shape dynamics: for a growing vesicle, there exist circle-like equilibrium shapes if the concentration difference across the membrane and the initial osmotic pressure are large enough; while for a shrinking vesicle, there exists a rich collection of finger-like equilibrium morphologies.

The effects of habitat heterogeneity on a diffusing population are investigated here. We formulate a reaction-diffusion system of partial differential equations to analyze the effect of resource allocation in an ecosystem with resource having its own dynamics in space and time. We show a priori estimates to prove the existence of state solutions given a control. We formulate an optimal control problem of our ecosystem model such that the abundance of a single species is maximized while minimizing the cost of inflow resource allocation. In addition, we show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal control as well as the optimal control characterization. We also establish the existence of an optimal intermediate diffusion rate. Moreover, we illustrate several numerical simulations with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions with the space domain in 1D and 2D.

Theory predicts that the additive genetic covariance ([Formula: see text]) matrix determines a population's short-term (in)ability to respond to directional selection-evolvability in the Hansen-Houle sense-which is typically quantified and compared via certain scalar indices called evolvability measures. Often, interest is in obtaining the averages of these measures across all possible selection gradients, but explicit formulae for most of these average measures have not been known. Previous authors relied either on approximations by the delta method, whose accuracy is generally unknown, or Monte Carlo evaluations (including the random skewers analysis), which necessarily involve random fluctuations. This study presents new, exact expressions for the average conditional evolvability, average autonomy, average respondability, average flexibility, average response difference, and average response correlation, utilizing their mathematical structures as ratios of quadratic forms. The new expressions are infinite series involving top-order zonal and invariant polynomials of matrix arguments, and can be numerically evaluated as their partial sums with, for some measures, known error bounds. Whenever these partial sums numerically converge within reasonable computational time and memory, they will replace the previous approximate methods. In addition, new expressions are derived for the average measures under a general normal distribution for the selection gradient, extending the applicability of these measures into a substantially broader class of selection regimes.

In this paper, we revisit a predator-prey model with specialist and generalist predators proposed by Hanski et al. (J Anim Ecol 60:353-367, 1991) , where the density of generalist predators is assumed to be a constant. It is shown that the model admits a nilpotent cusp of codimension 4 or a nilpotent focus of codimension 3 for different parameter values. As the parameters vary, the model can undergo cusp type (or focus type) degenerate Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations of codimension 4 (or 3). Our results indicate that generalist predation can induce more complex dynamical behaviors and bifurcation phenomena, such as three small-amplitude limit cycles enclosing one equilibrium, one or two large-amplitude limit cycles enclosing one or three equilibria, three limit cycles appearing in a Hopf bifurcation of codimension 3 and dying in a homoclinic bifurcation of codimension 3. In addition, we show that generalist predation stabilizes the limit cycle driven by specialist predators to a stable equilibrium, which clearly explains the famous Fennoscandia phenomenon.

This study investigates the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission through mathematical modeling, incorporating exogenous reinfections and different treatment approaches for latent tuberculosis infections. We examine three types of treatment rates: saturated, unsaturated, and mass screening-then-treatment. Our results reveal that both saturated treatment and mass screening-then-treatment can lead to a backward bifurcation, while unsaturated treatment does not. To determine the global dynamics of the models, we employ a persistent approach that avoids classifying the steady mode. By applying the models to China, we demonstrate that the data favors the use of unsaturated treatment. If unsaturated treatment is not feasible, the optimal strategy is to screen high-risk groups, identify LTBIs, and administer unsaturated treatment. Saturated treatments are not recommended.

NaV1.1 (SCN1A) is a voltage-gated sodium channel mainly expressed in GABAergic neurons. Loss of function mutations of NaV1.1 lead to epileptic disorders, while gain of function mutations cause a migraine in which cortical spreading depolarizations (CSDs) are involved. It is still debated how these opposite effects initiate two different manifestations of neuronal hyperactivity: epileptic seizures and CSD. To investigate this question, we previously built a conductance-based model of two neurons (GABAergic and pyramidal), with dynamic ion concentrations (Lemaire et al. in PLoS Comput Biol 17(7):e1009239, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009239 ). When implementing either NaV1.1 migraine or epileptogenic mutations, ion concentration modifications acted as slow processes driving the system to the corresponding pathological firing regime. However, the large dimensionality of the model complicated the exploitation of its implicit multi-timescale structure. Here, we substantially simplify our biophysical model to a minimal version more suitable for bifurcation analysis. The explicit timescale separation allows us to apply slow-fast theory, where slow variables are treated as parameters in the fast singular limit. In this setting, we reproduce both pathological transitions as dynamic bifurcations in the full system. In the epilepsy condition, we shift the spike-terminating bifurcation to lower inputs for the GABAergic neuron, to model an increased susceptibility to depolarization block. The resulting failure of synaptic inhibition triggers hyperactivity of the pyramidal neuron. In the migraine scenario, spiking-induced release of potassium leads to the abrupt increase of the extracellular potassium concentration. This causes a dynamic spike-terminating bifurcation of both neurons, which we interpret as CSD initiation.