We introduce a methodology to study the possible matter flows of an ecosystem defined by observational biomass data and realistic biological constraints. The flows belong to a polyhedron in a multi dimensional space that may make statistical exploration difficult in practice; instead, we propose to solve a convex optimization problem. Seven criteria based on ecological network indices have been selected to be used as convex goal functions. Numerical results show that the method is fast and can be used for large systems. Minimum flow solutions are analyzed using flow decomposition in paths and circuits. Their consistency is also tested by introducing a system of differential equations for the biomasses and examining the stability of the biomass fixed point. The method is illustrated and explained throughout the text on an ecosystem toy model. It is also applied to realistic food models.

Measures of phylogenetic balance, such as the Colless and Sackin indices, play an important role in phylogenetics. Unfortunately, these indices are specifically designed for phylogenetic trees, and do not extend naturally to phylogenetic networks (which are increasingly used to describe reticulate evolution). This led us to consider a lesser-known balance index, whose definition is based on a probabilistic interpretation that is equally applicable to trees and to networks. This index, known as the [Formula: see text] index, was first proposed by Shao and Sokal (Syst Zool 39(3): 266-276, 1990). Surprisingly, it does not seem to have been studied mathematically since. Likewise, it is used only sporadically in the biological literature, where it tends to be viewed as arcane. In this paper, we study mathematical properties of [Formula: see text] such as its expectation and variance under the most common models of random trees and its extremal values over various classes of phylogenetic networks. We also assess its relevance in biological applications, and find it to be comparable to that of the Colless and Sackin indices. Altogether, our results call for a reevaluation of the status of this somewhat forgotten measure of phylogenetic balance.

Comment on Science. 2020 May 8;368(6491):

Biological evolution has endowed the plant Arabidopsis thaliana with genetically regulated circadian rhythms. A number of authors have published kinetic models for these oscillating chemical reactions based on a network of interacting genes. To investigate the hypothesis that the Arabidopsis circadian dynamical system is poised near a Hopf bifurcation like some other biological oscillators, we varied the kinetic parameters in the models and searched for bifurcations. Finding that each model does exhibit a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, we performed a weakly nonlinear analysis near the bifurcation points to derive the Stuart-Landau amplitude equation. To illustrate a common dynamical structure, we scaled the numerical solutions to the models with the asymptotic solutions to the Stuart-Landau equation to collapse the circadian oscillations onto two universal curves-one for amplitude, and one for frequency. However, some models are close to bifurcation while others are far, some models are post-bifurcation while others are pre-bifurcation, and kinetic parameters that lead to a bifurcation in some models do not lead to a bifurcation in others. Future kinetic modeling can make use of our analysis to ensure models are consistent with each other and with the dynamics of the Arabidopsis circadian rhythm.

Climate change models predict increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. As ecosystems equilibrate with the atmosphere, stimulation of photosynthesis is expected to occur. However, growth limitation due to soil nutrients may potentially limit sequestration of carbon. Additionally, changes in producer nutritional quality may cause a decline in grazer populations. Here we extend the WKL model to allow for consideration of the impacts of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on producer-grazer dynamics. We do so by explicitly tracking the free carbon in the medium and allowing the producer's growth rate to be limited by available carbon instead of light. This model is analyzed using primarily local bifurcation analysis. Overall, these analyses show that carbon sequestration due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide can be limited by insufficient available phosphorus. Furthermore, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause decreased stoichiometric quality of producers where available phosphorus is limiting.

Bumble bees provide valuable pollination services to crops around the world. However, their populations are declining in intensively farmed landscapes. Understanding the dispersal behaviour of these bees is a key step in determining how agricultural landscapes can best be enhanced for bumble bee survival. Here we develop a partial integro-differential equation model to predict the spatial distribution of foraging bumble bees in dynamic heterogeneous landscapes. In our model, the foraging population is divided into two subpopulations, one engaged in an intensive search mode (modeled by diffusion) and the other engaged in an extensive search mode (modeled by advection). Our model considers the effects of resource-dependent switching rates between movement modes, resource depletion, central-place foraging behaviour, and memory. We use our model to investigate how crop pollination services are affected by wildflower enhancements. We find that planting wildflowers such that the crop is located in between the wildflowers and the nest site can benefit crop pollination in two different scenarios. If the bees do not have a strong preference for wildflowers, a small or low density wildflower patch is beneficial. If, on the other hand, the bees strongly prefer the wildflowers, then a large or high density wildflower patch is beneficial. The increase of the crop pollination services in the later scenario is of remarkable magnitude.

In previous work, we focused on the optimal therapeutic strategy with a pair of drugs which are collaterally sensitive to each other, that is, a situation in which evolution of resistance to one drug induces sensitivity to the other, and vice versa. Yoona (Bull Math Biol 8:1-34,Yoon et al. 2018) Here, we have extended this exploration to the optimal strategy with a collaterally sensitive drug sequence of an arbitrary length, N. To explore this, we have developed a dynamical model of sequential drug therapies with N drugs. In this model, tumor cells are classified as one of N subpopulations represented as [Formula: see text]. Each subpopulation, [Formula: see text], is resistant to '[Formula: see text]' and each subpopulation, [Formula: see text] (or [Formula: see text], if [Formula: see text]), is sensitive to it, so that [Formula: see text] increases under '[Formula: see text]' as it is resistant to it, and after drug-switching, decreases under '[Formula: see text]' as it is sensitive to that drug(s). Similar to our previous work examining optimal therapy with two drugs, we found that there is an initial period of time in which the tumor is 'shaped' into a specific makeup of each subpopulation, at which time all the drugs are equally effective ([Formula: see text]). After this shaping period, all the drugs are quickly switched with duration relative to their efficacy in order to maintain each subpopulation, consistent with the ideas underlying adaptive therapy. West(Canver Res 80(7):578-589Gatenby et al. 2009) and Gatenby (Cancer Res 67(11):4894-4903West et al. 2020). Additionally, we have developed methodologies to administer the optimal regimen under clinical or experimental situations in which no drug parameters and limited information of trackable populations data (all the subpopulations or only total population) are known. The therapy simulation based on these methodologies showed consistency with the theoretical effect of optimal therapy .

The chemical master equation (CME) is a fundamental description of interacting molecules commonly used to model chemical kinetics and noisy gene regulatory networks. Exact time-dependent solutions of the CME-which typically consists of infinitely many coupled differential equations-are rare, and are valuable for numerical benchmarking and getting intuition for the behavior of more complicated systems. Jahnke and Huisinga's landmark calculation of the exact time-dependent solution of the CME for monomolecular reaction systems is one of the most general analytic results known; however, it is hard to generalize, because it relies crucially on special properties of monomolecular reactions. In this paper, we rederive Jahnke and Huisinga's result on the time-dependent probability distribution and moments of monomolecular reaction systems using the Doi-Peliti path integral approach, which reduces solving the CME to evaluating many integrals. While the Doi-Peliti approach is less intuitive, it is also more mechanical, and hence easier to generalize. To illustrate how the Doi-Peliti approach can go beyond the method of Jahnke and Huisinga, we also find an explicit and exact time-dependent solution to a problem involving an autocatalytic reaction that Jahnke and Huisinga identified as not solvable using their method. Most interestingly, we are able to find a formal exact time-dependent solution for any CME whose list of reactions involves only zero and first order reactions, which may be the most general result currently known. This formal solution also yields a useful algorithm for efficiently computing numerical solutions to CMEs of this type.

In this work we propose a bone metastasis model using power law growth functions in order to describe the biochemical interactions between bone cells and cancer cells. Experimental studies indicate that bone remodeling cycles are different for human life stages: childhood, young adulthood, and adulthood. In order to include such differences in our study, we estimate the model parameter values for each human life stage via bifurcation analysis. Results reveal an intrinsic relationship between the active period of remodeling cycles and the proliferation of cancer cells. Subsequently, using optimal control theory we analyze a possible antigen receptor therapy as a new treatment for bone metastasis. Theoretical results such as existence of optimal solutions are proved. Numerical simulations for late stages of bone metastasis are presented and a discussion of our results is carried out.

Starting from recent experimental observations of starlings and jackdaws, we propose a minimal agent-based mathematical model for bird flocks based on a system of second-order delayed stochastic differential equations with discontinuous (both in space and time) right-hand side. The model is specifically designed to reproduce self-organized spontaneous sudden changes of direction, not caused by external stimuli like predator's attacks. The main novelty of the model is that every bird is a potential turn initiator, thus leadership is formed in a group of indistinguishable agents. We investigate some theoretical properties of the model and we show the numerical results. Biological insights are also discussed.