A theoretical study of cell evolution is presented here. By using a toolbox containing an intracellular catalytic reaction network model and a mutation-selection process, four distinct phases of self-organization were unveiled. First, the nutrients prevail as the central substrate of the chemical reactions. Second, the cell becomes a small-world. Third, a highly connected core component emerges, concurrently with the nutrient carriers becoming the central product of reactions. Finally, the cell reaches a steady configuration where the concentrations of the core chemical species are described by Zipf's law.

In this paper we use simulation methods to investigate the proliferation of deletion mutations of mitochondrial DNA in neurons. We simulate three mtDNA proliferation mechanisms, namely, random drift, replicative advantage and vicious cycle. For each mechanism, we investigated the effect mutation rates have on neuron loss within a human host. We also compare heteroplasmy of each mechanism at mutation rates that yield the levels neuron loss that would be associated with dementia. Both random drift and vicious cycle predicted high levels of heteroplasmy, while replicative advantage showed a small number of dominant clones with a low background of heteroplasmy.

There are two phases of Wnt signalling in early vertebrate embryogenesis: very early, maternal Wnt signalling promotes dorsal development, and slightly later, zygotic Wnt signalling promotes ventral and lateral mesoderm induction. However, recent molecular biology analysis has revealed more complexity among the direct Wnt target genes, with at least five classes. Here in order to test the logic and the dynamics of a new Gene Regulatory Network model suggested by these discoveries we use mathematical modelling based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our mathematical modelling of this Gene Regulatory Network reveals that a simplified model, with one "super-gene" for each class is sufficient to a large extent to describe the regulatory behaviour previously observed experimentally.

This paper develops and analyzes a Markov chain model for the treatment of cancer. Cancer therapy is modeled as the patient's Markov Decision Problem, with the objective of maximizing the patient's discounted expected quality of life years. Patients make decisions on the duration of therapy based on the progression of the disease as well as their own preferences. We obtain a powerful analytic decision tool through which patients may select their preferred treatment strategy. We illustrate the tradeoffs patients in a numerical example and calculate the value lost to a cohort in suboptimal strategies. In a second model patients may make choices to include drug holidays. By delaying therapy, the patient temporarily forgoes the gains of therapy in order to delay its side effects. We obtain an analytic tool that allows numerical approximations of the optimal times of delay.

BACKGROUND: Measles has re-emerged globally due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals and immunity gap, which causes challenges in eliminating measles. Routine vaccination and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have greatly improved measles control, but the impact of SIAs on the measles transmission dynamics remains unclear as the vaccine-induced immunity wanes. METHODS: We developed a comprehensive measles transmission dynamics model by taking into account population demographics, age-specific contact patterns, seasonality, routine vaccination, SIAs, and the waning vaccine-induced immunity. The model was calibrated by the monthly age-specific cases data from 2005 to 2018 in Jiangsu Province, China, and validated by the dynamic sero-prevalence data. We aimed to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of three-time SIAs during 2009-2012 (9.68 million and 4.25 million children aged 8 months-14 years in March 2009 and September 2010, respectively, and 140,000 children aged 8 months-6 years in March 2012) on the measles disease burden and explored whether additional SIAs could accelerate the measles elimination. RESULTS: We estimated that the cumulative numbers of measles cases from March 2009 to December 2012 (in the short run) and to December 2018 (in the long run) after three-time SIAs (base case) were 6,699 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2,928-10,469), and 22,411 (15,146-29,675), which averted 45.0% (42.9%-47.0%) and 34.3% (30.7%-37.9%) of 12,226 (4,916-19,537) and 34,274 (21,350-47,199) cases without SIAs, respectively. The fraction of susceptibles for children aged 8-23 months and 2-14 years decreased from 8.3% and 10.8% in March 2009 to 5.8% and 5.8% in April 2012, respectively. However, the fraction of susceptibles aged 15-49 years and above 50 years increased gradually to about 15% in 2018 irrespective of SIAs due to the waning immunity. The measles elimination goal would be reached in 2028, and administrating additional one-off SIAs in September 2022 to children aged 8-23 months, or young adolescents aged 15-19 years could accelerate the elimination one year earlier. CONCLUSIONS: SIAs have greatly reduced the measles incidence and the fraction of susceptibles, but the benefit may wane over time. Under the current interventions, Jiangsu province would reach the measles elimination goal in 2028. Additional SIAs may accelerate the measles elimination one year earlier.

The role of human papillomavirus (HPV) as a causative agent for epithelial cancers is well-known, but many open questions remain regarding the downstream gene regulatory effects of viral proteins E6 and E7 on the cell cycle. Here, we extend a cell cycle model originally presented by Gérard and Goldbeter (2009) in order to capture the effects of E6 and E7 on key actors in the cell cycle. Results suggest that E6 is sufficient to reverse p53-induced quiescence, while E7 is sufficient to reverse p16INK4a-induced quiescence; both E6 and E7 are necessary when p53 and p16INK4a are both active. Moreover, E7 appears to play a role as a "growth factor substitute", inducing cell division in the absence of growth factor. Low levels of E7 may permit regular cell division, but the results suggest that higher levels of E7 dysregulate the cell cycle in ways that may destabilize the cellular genome. The mechanisms explored here provide opportunities for developing new treatment targets that take advantage of the cell cycle regulatory system to prevent HPV-related cancer effects.

The emergence of mutant strains of COVID-19 reduces the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing infection, but remains effective in preventing severe illness and death. This paper established a heterogeneous mixing model of age groups with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions by analyzing the transmission mechanism of breakthrough infection caused by the heterogeneity of protection period under the action of vaccine-preventable infection with the original strain. The control reproduction number Rc of the system is analyzed, and the existence and stability of equilibrium are given by the comparison principle. Numerical simulation was conducted to evaluate the vaccination program and intervention measures in the customized scenario, demonstrating that the group-3 coverage rate p3 plays a key role in Rc. It is proposed that accelerating the rate of admission and testing is conducive to epidemic control by further fitting data of COVID-19 transmission in real scenarios. The findings provide a general modeling idea for the emergence of new vaccines to prevent infection by mutant strains, as well as a solid theoretical foundation for mainland China to formulate future vaccination strategies for new vaccines. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

We developed a new parametrization of the classic Douady and Couder model of phyllotaxis based on the inhibition potential: it allowed us to accurately reproduce the vegetative meristem of Linum usitatissimum displaying Fibonacci phyllotaxis, and the reproductive meristem of Ranunculus repens. We calculated the inhibition potential within the meristem and the auxin concentration at the front. We show that phyllotaxis modes and the convergence of the divergence angles towards "noble" angles are the consequence of minimizing the inhibitory potential under the constraint of decreasing plastochron ratios. Our approach, which gives a physicochemical basis to the van Iterson diagram, produces the same results as approaches based on mechanical constraints, suggesting these are two facets of the same botanical reality.

Microtubules (MTs) are protein polymers found in all eukaryotic cells. They are crucial for normal cell development, providing structural support for the cell and aiding in the transportation of proteins and organelles. In order to perform these functions, MTs go through periods of relatively slow polymerization (growth) and very fast depolymerization (shortening), where the switch from growth to shortening is called a catastrophe and the switch from shortening to growth is called a rescue. Although MT dynamic instability has traditionally been described solely in terms of growth and shortening, MTs have been shown to pause for extended periods of time, however the reason for pausing is not well understood. Here, we present a new mathematical model to describe MT dynamics in terms of growth, shortening, and pausing. Typically, MT dynamics are defined by four key parameters which include the MT growth rate, shortening rate, frequency of catastrophe, and the frequency of rescue. We derive a mathematical expression for the catastrophe frequency in the presence of pausing, as well as expressions to describe the total time that MTs spend in a state of growth and pause. In addition to exploring MT dynamics in a control-like setting, we explore the implicit effect of stabilizing MT associated proteins (MAPs) and stabilizing and destabilizing chemotherapeutic drugs that target MTs on MT dynamics through variations in model parameters.

The colony formation in Mediterranean coral Corallium rubrum is initiated by a larva that metamorphoses into the first polyp of the emerging colony approximately two weeks after settlement. The primary polyp then sets up a slow process that eventually, at least after a few years, gives rise to a tree-like rigid colony structure on which other polyps flourish. For a mature colony, this axial skeleton provides support for new polyps. However, the first emergence of the characteristic axial skeleton can take two years or more from the larva stage. The early colony morphology, instead, is shaped exclusively by the polyps' abundant deposition of sclerites, a magnesian calcite biomineral that has a different granularity from the distinctive red-coloured skeleton. With the appearance of the first polyp, a growing sclerite heap in a mesoglea layer provides a base for the emerging colony. In this paper, to elucidate the mechanical processes of early skeleton development in C. rubrum colonies, we present a computational model whereby the mesoglea layer provides a diffusion medium for the sclerites that the polyps deposit. We show that our stochastic model with three parameters captures the dynamic variability observed in measurements on living colonies. Our simulation results provide evidence for a diffusion process whereby the interplay between polyp budding and sclerite deposition are the main determinants of structure in early colony formation. Our model demonstrates that the frequency of budding events in an early colony can be described as a function of the available mesoglea surface whereas the number of polyps on the colony plays a secondary role in determining this frequency. We show that these model predictions are confirmed by direct observations on the colonies in our sample. Moreover, our results indicate that diffusion is a prevalent mechanism of colony development also at later stages of a colony's life span.

Bacterial cells maintain their characteristic cell size over many generations. Several rod-shaped bacteria, such as Escherichia coli and the cyanobacteria Synechococcus elongatus, divide after adding a constant length to their length at birth. Through this division control known as the adder mechanism, perturbation in cell length due to physiological fluctuation decays over generations at a rate of 2-1 per cell division. However, previous experiments have shown that the circadian clock in cyanobacteria reduces cell division frequency at a specific time of day under constant light. This circadian gating should modulate the division control by the adder mechanism, but its significance remains unknown. Here we address how the circadian gating affects cell length, doubling time, and cell length stability in cyanobacteria by using mathematical models. We show that a cell subject to circadian gating grows for a long time, and gives birth to elongated daughter cells. These elongated daughter cells grow faster than the previous generation, as elongation speed is proportional to cell length and divide in a short time before the next gating. Hence, the distributions of doubling time and cell length become bimodal, as observed in experimental data. Interestingly, the average doubling time over the population of cells is independent of gating because the extension of doubling time by gating is compensated by its reduction in the subsequent generation. On the other hand, average cell length is increased by gating, suggesting that the circadian clock controls cell length. We then show that the decay rate of perturbation in cell length depends on the ratio of delay in division by the gating τG to the average doubling time τ0 as [Formula: see text] . We estimated τG≈2.5, τ0≈13.6 hours, and τG/τ0≈0.18 from experimental data, indicating that a long doubling time in cyanobacteria maintains the decay rate similar to that of the adder mechanism. Thus, our analysis suggests that the acquisition of the circadian clock during evolution did not impose a constraint on cell size homeostasis in cyanobacteria.

Understanding the coexistence of diverse species in a changing environment is an important problem in community ecology. Bet-hedging is a strategy that helps species survive in such changing environments. However, studies of bet-hedging have often focused on the expected long-term growth rate of the species by itself, neglecting competition with other coexisting species. Here we study the extinction risk of a bet-hedging species in competition with others. We show that there are three contributions to the extinction risk. The first is the usual demographic fluctuation due to stochastic reproduction and selection processes in finite populations. The second, due to the fluctuation of population growth rate caused by environmental changes, may actually reduce the extinction risk for small populations. Besides those two, we reveal a third contribution, which is unique to bet-hedging species that diversify into multiple phenotypes: The phenotype composition of the population will fluctuate over time, resulting in increased extinction risk. We compare such compositional fluctuation to the demographic and environmental contributions, showing how they have different effects on the extinction risk depending on the population size, generation overlap, and environmental correlation.

Anti-angiogenic (AA) treatments have received significant research interest due to the key role of angiogenesis in cancer progression. AA agents can have a strong effect on cancer regression, by blocking new vessels and reducing the density of the existing vasculature. Moreover, in a process termed vascular normalisation, AA drugs can improve the abnormal structure and function of the tumour vasculature, enhancing the delivery of chemotherapeutics to the tumour site. Despite their promising potential, an improved understanding of AA treatments is necessary to optimise their administration as a monotherapy or in combination with other cancer treatments. In this work we present an in silico multiscale cancer model which is used to systematically interrogate the role of individual mechanisms of action of AA drugs in tumour regression. Focus is placed on the reduction of vascular density and on vascular normalisation through a parametric study, which are considered either as monotherapies or in combination with conventional/ metronomic chemotherapy. The model is specified to data from a mammary carcinoma xenograft in immunodeficient mice, to enhance the physiological relevance of model predictions. Our results suggest that conventional chemotherapy might be more beneficial when combined with AA treatments, hindering tumour growth without causing excessive damage on healthy tissue. Notably, metronomic chemotherapy has shown significant potential in stopping tumour growth with minimal toxicity, even as a monotherapy. Our findings underpin the potential of our in silico framework for non-invasive and cost-effective evaluation of treatment strategies, which can enhance our understanding of combined therapeutic strategies and contribute towards improving cancer treatment management.