Cancer cells obtain mutations which rely on the production of diffusible growth factors to confer a fitness benefit. These mutations can be considered cooperative, and studied as public goods games within the framework of evolutionary game theory. The population structure, benefit function and update rule all influence the evolutionary success of cooperators. We model the evolution of cooperation in epithelial cells using the Voronoi tessellation model. Unlike traditional evolutionary graph theory, this allows us to implement global updating, for which birth and death events are spatially decoupled. We compare, for a sigmoid benefit function, the conditions for cooperation to be favoured and/or beneficial for well-mixed and structured populations. We find that when population structure is combined with global updating, cooperation is more successful than if there were local updating or the population were well-mixed. Interestingly, the qualitative behaviour for the well-mixed population and the Voronoi tessellation model is remarkably similar, but the latter case requires significantly lower incentives to ensure cooperation.

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but typically do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility. Here we combine a generalized analytical framework of contagion with computational models of epidemic dynamics to show that variation strongly influences the rate of infection, while the infection process simultaneously sculpts the susceptibility distribution. These joint dynamics influence the force of infection and are, in turn, influenced by the shape of the initial variability. We find that certain susceptibility distributions (the exponential and the gamma) are unchanged through the course of the outbreak, and lead naturally to power-law behavior in the force of infection; other distributions are often sculpted towards these "eigen-distributions" through the process of contagion. The power-law behavior fundamentally alters predictions of the long-term infection rate, and suggests that first-order epidemic models that are parameterized in the exponential-like phase may systematically and significantly over-estimate the final severity of the outbreak. In summary, our study suggests the need to examine the shape of susceptibility in natural populations as part of efforts to improve prediction models and to prioritize interventions that leverage heterogeneity to mitigate against spread.

Meiotic recombination and the factors affecting its rate and fate in nature have inspired many studies in theoretical evolutionary biology. Classical theoretical models have inferred that recombination can be favored under a rather restricted parameter range. Thus, the ubiquity of recombination in nature remains an open question. However, these models assumed constant recombination with an equal rate across all individuals within the population, whereas empirical evidence suggests that recombination may display certain sensitivity to ecological stressors and/or genotype fitness. Models assuming condition-dependent recombination show that such a strategy can often be favored over constant recombination. Moreover, in our recent model with panmictic populations subjected to purifying selection, fitness-dependent recombination was quite often favored even when any constant recombination was rejected. By using numerical modeling, we test whether such a 'recombination-rescuing potential' of fitness dependence holds also beyond panmixia, given the recognized effect of mating strategy on the evolution of recombination. We show that deviations from panmixia generally increase the recombination-rescuing potential of fitness dependence, with the strongest effect under intermediate selfing or high clonality. We find that under partial clonality, the evolutionary advantage of fitness-dependent recombination is determined mostly by selection against heterozygotes and additive-by-additive epistasis, while under partial selfing, additive-by-dominance epistasis is also a driver.

Tissue growth in three-dimensional (3D) printed scaffolds enables exploration and control of cell behaviour in more biologically realistic geometries than that allowed by traditional 2D cell culture. Cell proliferation and migration in these experiments have yet to be explicitly characterised, limiting the ability of experimentalists to determine the effects of various experimental conditions, such as scaffold geometry, on cell behaviour. We consider tissue growth by osteoblastic cells in melt electro-written scaffolds that comprise thin square pores with sizes that were deliberately increased between experiments. We collect highly detailed temporal measurements of the average cell density, tissue coverage, and tissue geometry. To quantify tissue growth in terms of the underlying cell proliferation and migration processes, we introduce and calibrate a mechanistic mathematical model based on the Porous-Fisher reaction-diffusion equation. Parameter estimates and uncertainty quantification through profile likelihood analysis reveal consistency in the rate of cell proliferation and steady-state cell density between pore sizes. This analysis also serves as an important model verification tool: while the use of reaction-diffusion models in biology is widespread, the appropriateness of these models to describe tissue growth in 3D scaffolds has yet to be explored. We find that the Porous-Fisher model is able to capture features relating to the cell density and tissue coverage, but is not able to capture geometric features relating to the circularity of the tissue interface. Our analysis identifies two distinct stages of tissue growth, suggests several areas for model refinement, and provides guidance for future experimental work that explores tissue growth in 3D printed scaffolds.

Studying the dynamical behaviors of neuronal models may help in better understanding of real nervous system. In addition, it can help researchers to understand some specific phenomena in neuronal system. The thalamocortical network is made of neurons in the thalamus and cortex. In it, the memory function is consolidated in sleep by creating up and down state oscillations (1 Hz) and fast (13-17 Hz) - slow (8-12 Hz) spindles. Recently, a nonlinear biological model for up-down oscillations and fast-slow spindles of the thalamocortical network has been proposed. In this research, the power spectral for the fast-slow spindle of the model is extracted. Dynamical properties of the model, such as the bifurcation diagrams, and attractors are investigated. The results show that the variation of the synaptic power between the excitatory neurons of the cortex and the reticular neurons in the thalamus changes the spindles' activity. According to previous experimental findings, it is an essential rule for consolidating the memory function during sleep. It is also pointed out that when the fast-slow spindles of the brain increase, the dynamics of the thalamocortical system tend to chaos.

In the predator-prey system, predators can affect the prey population (1) by direct killing and (2) by inducing predation fear, which ultimately force preys to adopt some anti-predator strategies. However, the anti-predator strategy is not the same for all individual preys of different life stages. Also, anti-predator behavior has both cost and benefit, but most of the mathematical models observed the dynamics by incorporating its cost only. In the present study, we formulate a predator-prey model dividing the prey population into two stages: juvenile and adult. We assume that adult preys are only adapting group defense as an anti-predator strategy when they are sensitive to predation. Group defense plays a positive role for adult prey by reducing their predation, but, on the negative side, it simultaneously decreases their reproductive potential. A parameter, anti-predator sensitivity is introduced to interlink both the benefit and cost of group defense. Our result shows that when adult preys are not showing anti-predator behavior, with an increase of maturation rate, the system exhibits a population cycle of abruptly increasing amplitude, which may drive all species of the system to extinction. Anti-predator sensitivity may exclude oscillation through homoclinic bifurcation and avert the prey population for any possible random extinction. Anti-predator sensitivity also decreases the predator population density and produces bistable dynamics. Higher values of anti-predator sensitivity may lead to the extinction of the predator population and benefit adult preys to persist with large population density. Below a threshold value of anti-predator sensitivity, it may possible to retain the predator population in the system by increasing the fear level of the predator. We also observe our fear-induced stage-structured model exhibits interesting and rich dynamical behaviors, various types of bistabilities in different bi-parameter planes. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of our findings.

The mutagenic chain reaction (MCR) is a genetic tool to use a CRISPR-Cas construct to introduce a homing endonuclease, allowing gene drive to influence whole populations in a minimal number of generations (Esvelt et al., 2014; Gantz and Bier, 2015; Gantz and Bier, 2016). The question arises: if an active genetic terror event is released into a population, could we prevent the total spread of the undesired allele (Gantz, et al., 2015; Webber et al., 2015)? Thus far, effective protection methods require knowledge of the terror locus (Grunwald et al., 2019). Here we introduce a novel approach, an autocatalytic-Protection for an Unknown Locus (a-PUL), whose aim is to spread through a population and arrest and decrease an active terror event's spread without any prior knowledge of the terror-modified locus, thus allowing later natural selection and ERACR drives to restore the normal locus (Hammond et al., 2017). a-PUL, using a mutagenic chain reaction, includes (i) a segment encoding a non-Cas9 endonuclease capable of homology-directed repair suggested as Type II endonuclease Cpf1 (Cas12a), (ii) a ubiquitously-expressed gene encoding a gRNA (gRNA1) with a U4AU4 3'-overhang specific to Cpf1 and with crRNA specific to some desired genomic sequence of non-coding DNA, (iii) a ubiquitously-expressed gene encoding two gRNAs (gRNA2/gRNA3) both with tracrRNA specific to Cas9 and crRNA specific to two distinct sites of the Cas9 locus, and (iv) homology arms flanking the Cpf1/gRNA1/gRNA2/gRNA3 cassette that are identical to the region surrounding the target cut directed by gRNA1 (Khan, 2016; Zetsche et al., 2015). We demonstrate the proof-of-concept and efficacy of our protection construct through a Graphical Markov model and computer simulation.

The response of species to perturbations strongly depends on spatial aspects in populations connected by dispersal. Asynchronous fluctuations in biomass among populations lower the risk of simultaneous local extinctions and thus reduce the regional extinction risk. However, dispersal is often seen as passive diffusion that balances species abundance between distant patches, whereas ecological constraints, such as predator avoidance or foraging for food, trigger the movement of individuals. Here, we propose a model in which dispersal rates depend on the abundance of the species interacting with the dispersing species (e.g., prey or predators) to determine how density-dependent dispersal shapes spatial synchrony in trophic metacommunities in response to stochastic perturbations. Thus, unlike those with passive dispersal, this model with density-dependent dispersal bypasses the classic vertical transmission of perturbations due to trophic interactions and deeply alters synchrony patterns. We show that the species with the highest coefficient of variation of biomass governs the dispersal rate of the dispersing species and determines the synchrony of its populations. In addition, we show that this mechanism can be modulated by the relative impact of each species on the growth rate of the dispersing species. Species affected by several constraints disperse to mitigate the strongest constraints (e.g., predation), which does not necessarily experience the highest variations due to perturbations. Our approach can disentangle the joint effects of several factors implied in dispersal and provides a more accurate description of dispersal and its consequences on metacommunity dynamics.

Invasive species, disease vectors, and pathogens are significant threats to biodiversity, ecosystem function and services, and human health. Understanding the optimal management strategy, which maximizes the effectiveness is crucial. Despite an abundance of theoretical work has conducted on projecting the optimal allocation strategy, almost no empirical work has been performed to validate the theory. We first used a consumer-resource model to simulate a series of allocation fractions of controlling treatment to determine the optimal controlling strategy. Further, we conducted rigorous laboratory experiments using spatially diffusing laboratory populations of yeast to verify our mathematical results. We found consistent results that: (1) When population growth is limited by the local resource, the controlling priority should be given to the areas with higher concentration of resource; (2) When population growth is not limited by the resource concentration, the best strategy is to allocate equal amount of controlling efforts among the regions; (3) With restricted budget, it is more efficient to prioritize the controlling effects to the areas with high population abundance, otherwise, it is better to control equally among the regions. The new theory, which was tested by laboratory experiments, will reveal new opportunities for future field interventions, thereby informing subsequent biological decision-making.

Current clinician practice for thyroid hormone regulation of patients is based upon guesswork and experience rather than quantified analysis, which exposes patients under longer risk and discomfort. To quantitatively analyze the thyroid regulation for patients of different thyroid states, we develop a two-dimensional mathematical model that can be applied to analyze the dynamic behaviors of thyroid hormones with or without drug intervention. The unified model can be employed to study the regulation of TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone) and FT4 (free thyroxine) for euthyroid (normal thyroid) subjects, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, and Graves' disease patients, respectively. The results suggest that the level of TPOAb (thyroid peroxidase antibody) may be a factor determining whether the patient would progress from euthyroid state to subclinical or clinical hypothyroidism, and that increased TRAb (TSH receptor antibody) may lead Graves' disease to deteriorate from the early stage to overt hyperthyroidism. Given the early blood-test data, we demonstrate the feasibility for healthcare professionals to apply our model in choosing an appropriate dosage regimen for patients to achieve the desired TSH and FT4 levels within a specified time frame. This proposed model has the potential to optimize personalized treatment and shorten the therapeutic time for patients suffering from Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease.

Both anti-angiogenesis and gene therapy involve complex processes depending on non-point parameters belonging to a space of values. To successfully overcome the challenges involved in their therapeutic approaches, there is a need to analyze the sensitivity of these parameters. In this paper, a new mathematical model that combines immune system stimulations, inflammatory processes associated with tumor development, and gene therapy aimed at enhancing the efficacy of both treatments are explored. Using the global sensitivity methods of Sobol and Morris, the most important parameters are estimated. Estimation of the sensitivity variance revealed a strong interdependence between the parameters. Also, determinations of the conditions for effective therapy lead to a target of reducing the cancer cell numbers by at least 50%. This opened the way for delimiting the parameter spaces making it possible to reach the treatment target in addition to enhancing the estimation of the minimum time of remission. The combination of therapies and sensitivity analysis have demonstrated the robustness of therapy success.

Autocatalytic Sets are reaction networks theorised as networks at the basis of life. Their main feature is the ability of spontaneously emerging and self-reproducing. The Reflexively and Food-generated theory provides a formal definition of Autocatalytic Sets in terms of graphs with peculiar topological properties. This formalisation has been proved to be a powerful tool for the study of the chemical networks underlying life, and it was able to identify autocatalytic structures in real metabolic networks. However, the dynamical behaviour of such networks has not been yet complitely clarified. In this work, I present a first attempt to connect the topology of an Autocatalytic Set with its dynamics. For this purpose, I represent Autocatalytic Sets in terms of Chemical Reaction Networks, and I use the Chemical Reaction Network theory to detect motifs in the networks'structure, that allow to determine the long-term behaviour of the system.

Protein folding, the process by which proteins attain a 3-dimensional conformation necessary for their function, remains an important unsolved problem in biology. A major gap in our understanding is how local properties of proteins relate to their global properties. In this manuscript, we use the Writhe and Torsion to introduce a new local topological/geometrical free energy that can be associated to 4 consecutive amino acids along the protein backbone. By analyzing a culled protein dataset from the PDB, our results show that high local topological free energy conformations are independent of sequence and may be involved in the rate limiting step in protein folding. By analyzing a set of 2-state single domain proteins, we find that the total local topological free energy of these proteins correlates with the experimentally observed folding rates reported in Plaxco et al. (2000).

An important function of microRNAs in gene regulation is to repress the protein synthesis in a multi-step process with implications in timing efficiency of the regulatory network. We propose a stochastic description of translation-initiation mechanism and solve for the steady state distribution of protein number in the linear regime. The time-dependent moments have been approximately calculated and the role of miRNAs in determining the First Passage Time (FPT) properties of protein dynamics has been established. We analytically show that the modulation of slow rates of the translation process will result in efficient and robust timing mechanism. For a general nonlinear model our numerical simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the linear model.

Comment on Science. 1973 Jan 5;179(4068):90-2.

One of the key epidemiological characteristics that shape the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the serial interval (SI). Although SI is commonly considered following a probability distribution at a population scale, recent studies reported a slight shrinkage (or contraction) of the mean of effective SI across transmission generations or over time. Here, we develop a likelihood-based statistical inference framework with truncation to explore the change in SI across transmission generations after adjusting the impacts of case isolation. The COVID-19 contact tracing surveillance data in Hong Kong are used for exemplification. We find that for COVID-19, the mean of individual SI is likely to shrink with a factor at 0.72 per generation (95%CI: 0.54, 0.96) as the transmission generation increases, where a threshold may exist as the lower boundary of this shrinking process. We speculate that one of the probable explanations for the shrinkage in SI might be an outcome due to the competition among multiple candidate infectors within the same case cluster. Thus, the nonpharmaceutical interventive strategies are crucially important to block the transmission chains, and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic.

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory cardiovascular disease in which arteries harden through the build-up of plaques. This work is devoted to the mathematical modeling and analysis of the inflammatory process of atherosclerosis. We propose a mathematical model formed by three coupled partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. We take into account three key-role players: the inflammatory immune cells, the inflammatory cytokines and the oxidized low density lipoproteins. A stability analysis of the kinetic system is performed. It leads to the presence of three stable fixed points relevant to appropriate biological states of atherogenesis; no inflammation, stabilized inflammation (stable plaque) and advanced inflammation (vulnerable plaque). The cases that may occur are subject to the variation of the parameters values. A detailed discussion showing how the model fits the biological phenomena is then established. We investigate as well the existence of solutions of traveling waves type along with numerical simulations that show the wave propagation in different cases. This shows that the inflammatory process propagates inside the intima as a traveling wave. Then, we consider the effect of high density lipoprotein (HDL) on the atherosclerotic plaque formation. To do that, we elaborate a map that determines the level of risk of plaque formation with respect to the prevalence of HDL in the blood. These results confirm but also generalize previous results published in the literature. They also give a deeper understanding to the propagation of the inflammation inside the artery in terms of the interplay among the different main players in the whole process.

Kin selection means that individuals can increase their own inclusive fitness through displaying more altruistically toward their relatives. So, Hamilton's rule says kin selection will work if the coefficient of relatedness exceeds the cost-to-benefit ratio of the altruistic act. However, some studies have shown that the kin competition due to the altruism among relatives can reduce, and even totally negate, the kin-selected benefits of altruism toward relatives. In order to understand how the evolution of cooperation is influenced by both kin selection and kin competition under a general theoretical framework, we here consider the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in a finite kin population, where kin competition is incorporated into a simple Prisoner's Dilemma game between relatives. Differently from the previous studies, we emphasize that the difference between the effects of mutually and unilaterally altruistic acts on kin competition may play an important role for the evolution of cooperation. The main results not only show the conditions that Hamilton's rule still works under the kin competition but also reveal the evolutionary biological mechanism driving the evolution of cooperation in a finite kin population.

Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) signal indirectly characterizes neuronal activity by measuring hemodynamic and metabolic changes in the nearby microvasculature. A deeper understanding of how localized changes in electrical, metabolic and hemodynamic factors translate into a BOLD signal is crucial for the interpretation of functional brain imaging techniques. While positive BOLD responses (PBR) are widely considered to be linked with neuronal activation, the origins of negative BOLD responses (NBR) have remained largely unknown. As NBRs are sometimes observed in close proximity of regions with PBR, a blood "stealing" effect, i.e., redirection of blood from a passive periphery to the area with high neuronal activity, has been postulated. In this study, we used the Hagen-Poiseuille equation to model hemodynamics in an idealized microvascular network that account for the particulate nature of blood and nonlinearities arising from the red blood cell (RBC) distribution (i.e., the Fåhraeus, Fåhraeus-Lindqvist and the phase separation effects). Using this detailed model, we evaluate determinants driving this "stealing" effect in a microvascular network with geometric parameters within physiological ranges. Model simulations predict that during localized cerebral blood flow (CBF) increases due to neuronal activation-hyperemic response, blood from surrounding vessels is reallocated towards the activated region. This stealing effect depended on the resistance of the microvasculature and the uneven distribution of RBCs at vessel bifurcations. A parsimonious model consisting of two-connected windkessel regions sharing a supplying artery was proposed to simulate the stealing effect with a minimum number of parameters. Comparison with the detailed model showed that the parsimonious model can reproduce the observed response for hematocrit values within the physiological range for different species. Our novel parsimonious model promise to be of use for statistical inference (top-down analysis) from direct blood flow measurements (e.g., arterial spin labeling and laser Doppler/Speckle flowmetry), and when combined with theoretical models for oxygen extraction/diffusion will help account for some types of NBRs.

The tragedy of the commons (TOC) has been well known since it was proposed and has been widely applied not only to human society but also to many taxa. An increasing number of studies have focused on TOC in belowground competition in plants. In the presence of neighbors, plants overproduce roots to acquire more nutrients than their competitors, resulting in a reduction in reproductive yield. Game-theoretic studies on TOC in plants usually consider the amount of root biomass as a strategy and do not consider the growth of plants. However, root volume is considered an outcome of the decision-making of plants on whether they allocate more resources to the root. In this study, we incorporated resource allocation and growth dynamics into the TOC game in plants and explored the evolutionarily stable resource allocation strategy in the presence of neighbors. We demonstrated that TOC generally occurs when fitness per individual is always reduced because of the competitive response. However, the overproliferation of roots, which is emphasized as an indicator of TOC, did not necessarily occur, or was sometimes difficult to detect when fitness is largely or completely determined by root biomass. This result suggests the importance of careful observation for examining whether plant species engage in a TOC game.

In natural forests at a demographic equilibrium state, the size frequency distribution (SFD) of trees is linked with their size-dependent growth and mortality rates. While the mean growth rate (MGR) of each size class is generally used for determining the SFD, the variance in the growth rate (VGR) has always been ignored. Here, based on the analyses with Kolmogorov forward equation, we show that in general, the VGR can flatten the slope of the SFD and, in particular, can address the contradiction between the size-dependent MGR and the -2 power-law SFD in the metabolic scaling theory. We traced the origin of the VGR to the intrinsic stochasticity in the allometric growth coefficients of trees and deduced its functional form based on variance propagation. Using the forest censuses data from Barro Colorado Island, we verified the prediction of the VGR and indicated its indispensability in the theory of forest size-structure formation.