In malaria, individuals are often infected with different parasite strains. The complexity of infection (COI) is defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains in an individual. Changes in the mean COI in a population have been shown to be informative of changes in transmission intensity with a number of probabilistic likelihood and Bayesian models now developed to estimate the COI. However, rapid, direct measures based on heterozygosity or FwS do not properly represent the COI. In this work, we present two new methods that use easily calculated measures to directly estimate the COI from allele frequency data. Using a simulation framework, we show that our methods are computationally efficient and comparably accurate to current approaches in the literature. Through a sensitivity analysis, we characterize how the distribution of parasite densities, the assumed sequencing depth, and the number of sampled loci impact the bias and accuracy of our two methods. Using our developed methods, we further estimate the COI globally from Plasmodium falciparum sequencing data and compare the results against the literature. We show significant differences in the estimated COI globally between continents and a weak relationship between malaria prevalence and COI.

Humans can quickly recognize objects in a dynamically changing world. This ability is showcased by the fact that observers succeed at recognizing objects in rapidly changing image sequences, at up to 13 ms/image. To date, the mechanisms that govern dynamic object recognition remain poorly understood. Here, we developed deep learning models for dynamic recognition and compared different computational mechanisms, contrasting feedforward and recurrent, single-image and sequential processing as well as different forms of adaptation. We found that only models that integrate images sequentially via lateral recurrence mirrored human performance (N = 36) and were predictive of trial-by-trial responses across image durations (13-80 ms/image). Importantly, models with sequential lateral-recurrent integration also captured how human performance changes as a function of image presentation durations, with models processing images for a few time steps capturing human object recognition at shorter presentation durations and models processing images for more time steps capturing human object recognition at longer presentation durations. Furthermore, augmenting such a recurrent model with adaptation markedly improved dynamic recognition performance and accelerated its representational dynamics, thereby predicting human trial-by-trial responses using fewer processing resources. Together, these findings provide new insights into the mechanisms rendering object recognition so fast and effective in a dynamic visual world.

Synthetic lethality (SL) occurs when mutations in two genes together lead to cell or organism death, while a single mutation in either gene does not have a significant impact. This concept can also be extended to three or more genes for SL. Computational and experimental methods have been developed to predict and verify SL gene pairs, especially for yeast and Escherichia coli. However, there is currently a lack of a specialized platform to collect microbial SL gene pairs. Therefore, we designed a synthetic interaction database for microbial genetics that collects 13,313 SL and 2,994 Synthetic Rescue (SR) gene pairs that are reported in the literature, as well as 86,981 putative SL pairs got through homologous transfer method in 281 bacterial genomes. Our database website provides multiple functions such as search, browse, visualization, and Blast. Based on the SL interaction data in the S. cerevisiae, we review the issue of duplications' essentiality and observed that the duplicated genes and singletons have a similar ratio of being essential when we consider both individual and SL. The Microbial Synthetic Lethal and Rescue Database (Mslar) is expected to be a useful reference resource for researchers interested in the SL and SR genes of microorganisms. Mslar is open freely to everyone and available on the web at http://guolab.whu.edu.cn/Mslar/.

To interpret the sensory environment, the brain combines ambiguous sensory measurements with knowledge that reflects context-specific prior experience. But environmental contexts can change abruptly and unpredictably, resulting in uncertainty about the current context. Here we address two questions: how should context-specific prior knowledge optimally guide the interpretation of sensory stimuli in changing environments, and do human decision-making strategies resemble this optimum? We probe these questions with a task in which subjects report the orientation of ambiguous visual stimuli that were drawn from three dynamically switching distributions, representing different environmental contexts. We derive predictions for an ideal Bayesian observer that leverages knowledge about the statistical structure of the task to maximize decision accuracy, including knowledge about the dynamics of the environment. We show that its decisions are biased by the dynamically changing task context. The magnitude of this decision bias depends on the observer's continually evolving belief about the current context. The model therefore not only predicts that decision bias will grow as the context is indicated more reliably, but also as the stability of the environment increases, and as the number of trials since the last context switch grows. Analysis of human choice data validates all three predictions, suggesting that the brain leverages knowledge of the statistical structure of environmental change when interpreting ambiguous sensory signals.

Interactions between stressed organisms and their microbiome environments may provide new routes for understanding and controlling biological systems. However, microbiomes are a form of high-dimensional data, with thousands of taxa present in any given sample, which makes untangling the interaction between an organism and its microbial environment a challenge. Here we apply Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a technique for language modeling, which decomposes the microbial communities into a set of topics (non-mutually-exclusive sub-communities) that compactly represent the distribution of full communities. LDA provides a lens into the microbiome at broad and fine-grained taxonomic levels, which we show on two datasets. In the first dataset, from the literature, we show how LDA topics succinctly recapitulate many results from a previous study on diseased coral species. We then apply LDA to a new dataset of maize soil microbiomes under drought, and find a large number of significant associations between the microbiome topics and plant traits as well as associations between the microbiome and the experimental factors, e.g. watering level. This yields new information on the plant-microbial interactions in maize and shows that LDA technique is useful for studying the coupling between microbiomes and stressed organisms.

In vitro studies using isolated or skinned muscle fibers suggest that the sigmoidal relationship between the intracellular calcium concentration and force production may depend upon muscle type and activity. The goal of this study was to investigate whether and how the calcium-force relationship changes during force production under physiological conditions of muscle excitation and length in fast skeletal muscles. A computational framework was developed to identify the dynamic variation in the calcium-force relationship during force generation over a full physiological range of stimulation frequencies and muscle lengths in cat gastrocnemius muscles. In contrast to the situation in slow muscles such as the soleus, the calcium concentration for the half-maximal force needed to drift rightward to reproduce the progressive force decline, or sag behavior, observed during unfused isometric contractions at the intermediate length under low-frequency stimulation (i.e., 20 Hz). The slope at the calcium concentration for the half-maximal force was required to drift upward for force enhancement during unfused isometric contractions at the intermediate length under high-frequency stimulation (i.e., 40 Hz). The slope variation in the calcium-force relationship played a crucial role in shaping sag behavior across different muscle lengths. The muscle model with dynamic variations in the calcium-force relationship also accounted for the length-force and velocity-force properties measured under full excitation. These results imply that the calcium sensitivity and cooperativity of force-inducing crossbridge formation between actin and myosin filaments may be operationally altered in accordance with the mode of neural excitation and muscle movement in intact fast muscles.

Implementation of effective cancer treatment strategies requires consideration of how the spatiotemporal heterogeneities within the tumor microenvironment (TME) influence tumor progression and treatment response. Here, we developed a multi-scale three-dimensional mathematical model of the TME to simulate tumor growth and angiogenesis and then employed the model to evaluate an array of single and combination therapy approaches. Treatments included maximum tolerated dose or metronomic (i.e., frequent low doses) scheduling of anti-cancer drugs combined with anti-angiogenic therapy. The results show that metronomic therapy normalizes the tumor vasculature to improve drug delivery, modulates cancer metabolism, decreases interstitial fluid pressure and decreases cancer cell invasion. Further, we find that combining an anti-cancer drug with anti-angiogenic treatment enhances tumor killing and reduces drug accumulation in normal tissues. We also show that combined anti-angiogenic and anti-cancer drugs can decrease cancer invasiveness and normalize the cancer metabolic microenvironment leading to reduced hypoxia and hypoglycemia. Our model simulations suggest that vessel normalization combined with metronomic cytotoxic therapy has beneficial effects by enhancing tumor killing and limiting normal tissue toxicity.

Much guidance on statistical training in STEM fields has been focused largely on the undergraduate cohort, with graduate education often being absent from the equation. Training in quantitative methods and reasoning is critical for graduate students in biomedical and science programs to foster reproducible and responsible research practices. We argue that graduate student education should more center around fundamental reasoning and integration skills rather than mainly on listing 1 statistical test method after the other without conveying the bigger context picture or critical argumentation skills that will enable student to improve research integrity through rigorous practice. Herein, we describe the approach we take in a quantitative reasoning course in the R3 program at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, with an error-focused lens, based on visualization and communication competencies. Specifically, we take this perspective stemming from the discussed causes of irreproducibility and apply it specifically to the many aspects of good statistical practice in science, ranging from experimental design to data collection and analysis, and conclusions drawn from the data. We also provide tips and guidelines for the implementation and adaptation of our course material to various graduate biomedical and STEM science programs.

A musician's spontaneous rate of movement, called spontaneous motor tempo (SMT), can be measured while spontaneously playing a simple melody. Data shows that the SMT influences the musician's tempo and synchronization. In this study we present a model that captures these phenomena. We review the results from three previously-published studies: solo musical performance with a pacing metronome tempo that is different from the SMT, solo musical performance without a metronome at a tempo that is faster or slower than the SMT, and duet musical performance between musicians with matching or mismatching SMTs. These studies showed, respectively, that the asynchrony between the pacing metronome and the musician's tempo grew as a function of the difference between the metronome tempo and the musician's SMT, musicians drifted away from the initial tempo toward the SMT, and the absolute asynchronies were smaller if musicians had matching SMTs. We hypothesize that the SMT constantly acts as a pulling force affecting musical actions at a tempo different from a musician's SMT. To test our hypothesis, we developed a model consisting of a non-linear oscillator with Hebbian tempo learning and a pulling force to the model's spontaneous frequency. While the model's spontaneous frequency emulates the SMT, elastic Hebbian learning allows for frequency learning to match a stimulus' frequency. To test our hypothesis, we first fit model parameters to match the data in the first of the three studies and asked whether this same model would explain the data the remaining two studies without further tuning. Results showed that the model's dynamics allowed it to explain all three experiments with the same set of parameters. Our theory offers a dynamical-systems explanation of how an individual's SMT affects synchronization in realistic music performance settings, and the model also enables predictions about performance settings not yet tested.

Current mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroup classification tools map reads to a single reference genome and perform inference based on the detected mutations to this reference. This approach biases haplogroup assignments towards the reference and prohibits accurate calculations of the uncertainty in assignment. We present HaploCart, a probabilistic mtDNA haplogroup classifier which uses a pangenomic reference graph framework together with principles of Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms available tools by being more robust to lower coverage or incomplete consensus sequences and producing phylogenetically-aware confidence scores that are unbiased towards any haplogroup. HaploCart is available both as a command-line tool and through a user-friendly web interface. The C++ program accepts as input consensus FASTA, FASTQ, or GAM files, and outputs a text file with the haplogroup assignments of the samples along with the level of confidence in the assignments. Our work considerably reduces the amount of data required to obtain a confident mitochondrial haplogroup assignment.

Aquatic systems worldwide can exist in multiple ecosystem states (i.e., a recurring collection of biological and chemical attributes), and effectively characterizing multidimensionality will aid protection of desirable states and guide rehabilitation. The Upper Mississippi River System is composed of a large floodplain river system spanning 2200 km and multiple federal, state, tribal and local governmental units. Multiple ecosystem states may occur within the system, and characterization of the variables that define these ecosystem states could guide river rehabilitation. We coupled a long-term (30-year) highly dimensional water quality monitoring dataset with multiple topological data analysis (TDA) techniques to classify ecosystem states, identify state variables, and detect state transitions over 30 years in the river to guide conservation. Across the entire system, TDA identified five ecosystem states. State 1 was characterized by exceptionally clear, clean, and cold-water conditions typical of winter (i.e., a clear-water state); State 2 had the greatest range of environmental conditions and contained most the data (i.e., a status-quo state); and States 3, 4, and 5 had extremely high concentrations of suspended solids (i.e., turbid states, with State 5 as the most turbid). The TDA mapped clear patterns of the ecosystem states across several riverine navigation reaches and seasons that furthered ecological understanding. State variables were identified as suspended solids, chlorophyll a, and total phosphorus, which are also state variables of shallow lakes worldwide. The TDA change detection function showed short-term state transitions based on seasonality and episodic events, and provided evidence of gradual, long-term changes due to water quality improvements over three decades. These results can inform decision making and guide actions for regulatory and restoration agencies by assessing the status and trends of this important river and provide quantitative targets for state variables. The TDA change detection function may serve as a new tool for predicting the vulnerability to undesirable state transitions in this system and other ecosystems with sufficient data. Coupling ecosystem state concepts and TDA tools can be transferred to any ecosystem with large data to help classify states and understand their vulnerability to state transitions.

The physiology of biological cells evolved under physical and chemical constraints, such as mass conservation across the network of biochemical reactions, nonlinear reaction kinetics, and limits on cell density. For unicellular organisms, the fitness that governs this evolution is mainly determined by the balanced cellular growth rate. We previously introduced growth balance analysis (GBA) as a general framework to model and analyze such nonlinear systems, revealing important analytical properties of optimal balanced growth states. It has been shown that at optimality, only a minimal subset of reactions can have nonzero flux. However, no general principles have been established to determine if a specific reaction is active at optimality. Here, we extend the GBA framework to study the optimality of each biochemical reaction, and we identify the mathematical conditions determining whether a reaction is active or not at optimal growth in a given environment. We reformulate the mathematical problem in terms of a minimal number of dimensionless variables and use the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to identify fundamental principles of optimal resource allocation in GBA models of any size and complexity. Our approach helps to identify from first principles the economic values of biochemical reactions, expressed as marginal changes in cellular growth rate; these economic values can be related to the costs and benefits of proteome allocation into the reactions' catalysts. Our formulation also generalizes the concepts of Metabolic Control Analysis to models of growing cells. We show how the extended GBA framework unifies and extends previous approaches of cellular modeling and analysis, putting forward a program to analyze cellular growth through the stationarity conditions of a Lagrangian function. GBA thereby provides a general theoretical toolbox for the study of fundamental mathematical properties of balanced cellular growth.

Neural ensembles are found throughout the brain and are believed to underlie diverse cognitive functions including memory and perception. Methods to activate ensembles precisely, reliably, and quickly are needed to further study the ensembles' role in cognitive processes. Previous work has found that ensembles in layer 2/3 of the visual cortex (V1) exhibited pattern completion properties: ensembles containing tens of neurons were activated by stimulation of just two neurons. However, methods that identify pattern completion neurons are underdeveloped. In this study, we optimized the selection of pattern completion neurons in simulated ensembles. We developed a computational model that replicated the connectivity patterns and electrophysiological properties of layer 2/3 of mouse V1. We identified ensembles of excitatory model neurons using K-means clustering. We then stimulated pairs of neurons in identified ensembles while tracking the activity of the entire ensemble. Our analysis of ensemble activity quantified a neuron pair's power to activate an ensemble using a novel metric called pattern completion capability (PCC) based on the mean pre-stimulation voltage across the ensemble. We found that PCC was directly correlated with multiple graph theory parameters, such as degree and closeness centrality. To improve selection of pattern completion neurons in vivo, we computed a novel latency metric that was correlated with PCC and could potentially be estimated from modern physiological recordings. Lastly, we found that stimulation of five neurons could reliably activate ensembles. These findings can help researchers identify pattern completion neurons to stimulate in vivo during behavioral studies to control ensemble activation.

Recent advances in biological technologies, such as multi-way chromosome conformation capture (3C), require development of methods for analysis of multi-way interactions. Hypergraphs are mathematically tractable objects that can be utilized to precisely represent and analyze multi-way interactions. Here we present the Hypergraph Analysis Toolbox (HAT), a software package for visualization and analysis of multi-way interactions in complex systems.

Mutational processes and their exposures in particular genomes are key to our understanding of how these genomes are shaped. However, current analyses assume that these processes are uniformly active across the genome without accounting for potential covariates such as strand or genomic region that could impact such activities. Here we suggest the first mutation-covariate models that explicitly model the effect of different covariates on the exposures of mutational processes. We apply these models to test the impact of replication strand on these processes and compare them to strand-oblivious models across a range of data sets. Our models capture replication strand specificity, point to signatures affected by it, and score better on held-out data compared to standard models that do not account for mutation-level covariate information.

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), large-scale social contact surveys are now longitudinally measuring the fundamental changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we present a model-based Bayesian approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model. The model can also quantify time trends and adjust for reporting fatigue emerging in longitudinal surveys through the use of computationally efficient Hilbert Space Gaussian process priors. We illustrate estimation accuracy on simulated data as well as social contact data from Europe and Africa for which the exact age of contacts is reported, and then apply the model to social contact data with coarse information on the age of contacts that were collected in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic from April to June 2020 across five longitudinal survey waves. We estimate the fine age structure in social contacts during the early stages of the pandemic and demonstrate that social contact intensities rebounded in an age-structured, non-homogeneous manner. The Bayesian rate consistency model provides a model-based, non-parametric, computationally tractable approach for estimating the fine structure and longitudinal trends in social contacts and is applicable to contemporary survey data with coarsely reported age of contacts as long as the exact age of survey participants is reported.

Supervised learning, such as regression and classification, is an essential tool for analyzing modern high-throughput sequencing data, for example in microbiome research. However, due to the compositionality and sparsity, existing techniques are often inadequate. Either they rely on extensions of the linear log-contrast model (which adjust for compositionality but cannot account for complex signals or sparsity) or they are based on black-box machine learning methods (which may capture useful signals, but lack interpretability due to the compositionality). We propose KernelBiome, a kernel-based nonparametric regression and classification framework for compositional data. It is tailored to sparse compositional data and is able to incorporate prior knowledge, such as phylogenetic structure. KernelBiome captures complex signals, including in the zero-structure, while automatically adapting model complexity. We demonstrate on par or improved predictive performance compared with state-of-the-art machine learning methods on 33 publicly available microbiome datasets. Additionally, our framework provides two key advantages: (i) We propose two novel quantities to interpret contributions of individual components and prove that they consistently estimate average perturbation effects of the conditional mean, extending the interpretability of linear log-contrast coefficients to nonparametric models. (ii) We show that the connection between kernels and distances aids interpretability and provides a data-driven embedding that can augment further analysis. KernelBiome is available as an open-source Python package on PyPI and at https://github.com/shimenghuang/KernelBiome.

Human interactions can take the form of social dilemmas: collectively, people fare best if all cooperate but each individual is tempted to free ride. Social dilemmas can be resolved when individuals interact repeatedly. Repetition allows them to adopt reciprocal strategies which incentivize cooperation. The most basic model for direct reciprocity is the repeated donation game, a variant of the prisoner's dilemma. Two players interact over many rounds; in each round they decide whether to cooperate or to defect. Strategies take into account the history of the play. Memory-one strategies depend only on the previous round. Even though they are among the most elementary strategies of direct reciprocity, their evolutionary dynamics has been difficult to study analytically. As a result, much previous work has relied on simulations. Here, we derive and analyze their adaptive dynamics. We show that the four-dimensional space of memory-one strategies has an invariant three-dimensional subspace, generated by the memory-one counting strategies. Counting strategies record how many players cooperated in the previous round, without considering who cooperated. We give a partial characterization of adaptive dynamics for memory-one strategies and a full characterization for memory-one counting strategies.

Intestinal epithelial cells play important roles in the absorption of nutrients, secretion of electrolytes and food digestion. The function of these cells is strongly influenced by purinergic signalling activated by extracellular ATP (eATP) and other nucleotides. The activity of several ecto-enzymes determines the dynamic regulation of eATP. In pathological contexts, eATP may act as a danger signal controlling a variety of purinergic responses aimed at defending the organism from pathogens present in the intestinal lumen. In this study, we characterized the dynamics of eATP on polarized and non-polarized Caco-2 cells. eATP was quantified by luminometry using the luciferin-luciferase reaction. Results show that non-polarized Caco-2 cells triggered a strong but transient release of intracellular ATP after hypotonic stimuli, leading to low micromolar eATP accumulation. Subsequent eATP hydrolysis mainly determined eATP decay, though this effect could be counterbalanced by eATP synthesis by ecto-kinases kinetically characterized in this study. In polarized Caco-2 cells, eATP showed a faster turnover at the apical vs the basolateral side. To quantify the extent to which different processes contribute to eATP regulation, we created a data-driven mathematical model of the metabolism of extracellular nucleotides. Model simulations showed that eATP recycling by ecto-AK is more efficient a low micromolar eADP concentrations and is favored by the low eADPase activity of Caco-2 cells. Simulations also indicated that a transient eATP increase could be observed upon the addition of non-adenine nucleotides due the high ecto-NDPK activity in these cells. Model parameters showed that ecto-kinases are asymmetrically distributed upon polarization, with the apical side having activity levels generally greater in comparison with the basolateral side or the non-polarized cells. Finally, experiments using human intestinal epithelial cells confirmed the presence of functional ecto-kinases promoting eATP synthesis. The adaptive value of eATP regulation and purinergic signalling in the intestine is discussed.

The peripheral structures of mammalian sensory organs often serve to support their functionality, such as alignment of hair cells to the mechanical properties of the inner ear. Here, we examined the structure-function relationship for mammalian olfaction by creating an anatomically accurate computational nasal model for the domestic cat (Felis catus) based on high resolution microCT and sequential histological sections. Our results showed a distinct separation of respiratory and olfactory flow regimes, featuring a high-speed dorsal medial stream that increases odor delivery speed and efficiency to the ethmoid olfactory region without compromising the filtration and conditioning purpose of the nose. These results corroborated previous findings in other mammalian species, which implicates a common theme to deal with the physical size limitation of the head that confines the nasal airway from increasing in length infinitely as a straight tube. We thus hypothesized that these ethmoid olfactory channels function as parallel coiled chromatograph channels, and further showed that the theoretical plate number, a widely-used indicator of gas chromatograph efficiency, is more than 100 times higher in the cat nose than an "amphibian-like" straight channel fitting the similar skull space, at restful breathing state. The parallel feature also reduces airflow speed within each coil, which is critical to achieve the high plate number, while feeding collectively from the high-speed dorsal medial stream so that total odor sampling speed is not sacrificed. The occurrence of ethmoid turbinates is an important step in the evolution of mammalian species that correlates to their expansive olfactory function and brain development. Our findings reveal novel mechanisms on how such structure may facilitate better olfactory performance, furthering our understanding of the successful adaptation of mammalian species, including F. catus, a popular pet, to diverse environments.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM), a serious complication during pregnancy which is defined by abnormal glucose regulation, is commonly treated by diabetic diet and lifestyle changes. While recent findings place the microbiome as a natural mediator between diet interventions and diverse disease states, its role in GDM is still unknown. Here, based on observation data from healthy pregnant control group and GDM patients, we developed a new network approach using patterns of co-abundance of microorganism to construct microbial networks that represent human-specific information about gut microbiota in different groups. By calculating network similarity in different groups, we analyze the gut microbiome from 27 GDM subjects collected before and after two weeks of diet therapy compared with 30 control subjects to identify the health condition of microbial community balance in GDM subjects. Although the microbial communities remain similar after the diet phase, we find that the structure of their inter-species co-abundance network is significantly altered, which is reflected in that the ecological balance of GDM patients was not "healthier" after the diet intervention. In addition, we devised a method for individualized network analysis of the microbiome, thereby a pattern is found that GDM individuals whose microbial networks are with large deviations from the GDM group are usually accompanied by their abnormal glucose regulation. This approach may help the development of individualized diagnosis strategies and microbiome-based therapies in the future.

The recent advances in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) techniques have stimulated efforts to identify and characterize the cellular composition of complex tissues. With the advent of various sequencing techniques, automated cell-type annotation using a well-annotated scRNA-seq reference becomes popular. But it relies on the diversity of cell types in the reference, which may not capture all the cell types present in the query data of interest. There are generally unseen cell types in the query data of interest because most data atlases are obtained for different purposes and techniques. Identifying previously unseen cell types is essential for improving annotation accuracy and uncovering novel biological discoveries. To address this challenge, we propose mtANN (multiple-reference-based scRNA-seq data annotation), a new method to automatically annotate query data while accurately identifying unseen cell types with the aid of multiple references. Key innovations of mtANN include the integration of deep learning and ensemble learning to improve prediction accuracy, and the introduction of a new metric that considers three complementary aspects to distinguish between unseen cell types and shared cell types. Additionally, we provide a data-driven method to adaptively select a threshold for identifying previously unseen cell types. We demonstrate the advantages of mtANN over state-of-the-art methods for unseen cell-type identification and cell-type annotation on two benchmark dataset collections, as well as its predictive power on a collection of COVID-19 datasets. The source code and tutorial are available at https://github.com/Zhangxf-ccnu/mtANN.

Environmental changes play a critical role in determining the evolution of social dilemmas in many natural or social systems. Generally, the environmental changes include two prominent aspects: the global time-dependent fluctuations and the local strategy-dependent feedbacks. However, the impacts of these two types of environmental changes have only been studied separately, a complete picture of the environmental effects exerted by the combination of these two aspects remains unclear. Here we develop a theoretical framework that integrates group strategic behaviors with their general dynamic environments, where the global environmental fluctuations are associated with a nonlinear factor in public goods game and the local environmental feedbacks are described by the 'eco-evolutionary game'. We show how the coupled dynamics of local game-environment evolution differ in static and dynamic global environments. In particular, we find the emergence of cyclic evolution of group cooperation and local environment, which forms an interior irregular loop in the phase plane, depending on the relative changing speed of both global and local environments compared to the strategic change. Further, we observe that this cyclic evolution disappears and transforms into an interior stable equilibrium when the global environment is frequency-dependent. Our results provide important insights into how diverse evolutionary outcomes could emerge from the nonlinear interactions between strategies and the changing environments.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been geographically uneven. To understand the drivers of this spatial variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, in particular the role of stochasticity, we used the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 invasion in Washington state as a case study. We analysed spatially-resolved COVID-19 epidemiological data using two distinct statistical analyses. The first analysis involved using hierarchical clustering on the matrix of correlations between county-level case report time series to identify geographical patterns in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across the state. In the second analysis, we used a stochastic transmission model to perform likelihood-based inference on hospitalised cases from five counties in the Puget Sound region. Our clustering analysis identifies five distinct clusters and clear spatial patterning. Four of the clusters correspond to different geographical regions, with the final cluster spanning the state. Our inferential analysis suggests that a high degree of connectivity across the region is necessary for the model to explain the rapid inter-county spread observed early in the pandemic. In addition, our approach allows us to quantify the impact of stochastic events in determining the subsequent epidemic. We find that atypically rapid transmission during January and February 2020 is necessary to explain the observed epidemic trajectories in King and Snohomish counties, demonstrating a persisting impact of stochastic events. Our results highlight the limited utility of epidemiological measures calculated over broad spatial scales. Furthermore, our results make clear the challenges with predicting epidemic spread within spatially extensive metropolitan areas, and indicate the need for high-resolution mobility and epidemiological data.

Tumor heterogeneity is a large obstacle for cancer study and treatment. Different cancer patients may involve different combinations of gene mutations or the distinct regulatory pathways for inducing the progression of tumor. Investigating the pathways of gene mutations which can cause the formation of tumor can provide a basis for the personalized treatment of cancer. Studies suggested that KRAS, APC and TP53 are the most significant driver genes for colorectal cancer. However, it is still an open issue regarding the detailed mutation order of these genes in the development of colorectal cancer. For this purpose, we analyze the mathematical model considering all orders of mutations in oncogene, KRAS and tumor suppressor genes, APC and TP53, and fit it on data describing the incidence rates of colorectal cancer at different age from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry in the United States for the year 1973-2013. The specific orders that can induce the development of colorectal cancer are identified by the model fitting. The fitting results indicate that the mutation orders with KRAS → APC → TP53, APC → TP53 → KRAS and APC → KRAS → TP53 explain the age-specific risk of colorectal cancer with very well. Furthermore, eleven pathways of gene mutations can be accepted for the mutation order of genes with KRAS → APC → TP53, APC → TP53 → KRAS and APC → KRAS → TP53, and the alternation of APC acts as the initiating or promoting event in the colorectal cancer. The estimated mutation rates of cells in the different pathways demonstrate that genetic instability must exist in colorectal cancer with alterations of genes, KRAS, APC and TP53.

On a daily basis, humans interact with the outside world using judgments of sensorimotor confidence, constantly evaluating our actions for success. We ask, what sensory and motor-execution cues are used in making these judgements and when are they available? Two sources of temporally distinct information are prospective cues, available prior to the action (e.g., knowledge of motor noise and past performance), and retrospective cues specific to the action itself (e.g., proprioceptive measurements). We investigated the use of these two cues in two tasks, a secondary motor-awareness task and a main task in which participants reached toward a visual target with an unseen hand and then made a continuous judgment of confidence about the success of the reach. Confidence was reported by setting the size of a circle centered on the reach-target location, where a larger circle reflects lower confidence. Points were awarded if the confidence circle enclosed the true endpoint, with fewer points returned for larger circles. This incentivized accurate reaches and attentive reporting to maximize the score. We compared three Bayesian-inference models of sensorimotor confidence based on either prospective cues, retrospective cues, or both sources of information to maximize expected gain (i.e., an ideal-performance model). Our findings primarily showed two distinct strategies: participants either performed as ideal observers, using both prospective and retrospective cues to make the confidence judgment, or relied solely on prospective information, ignoring retrospective cues. Thus, participants can make use of retrospective cues, evidenced by the behavior observed in our motor-awareness task, but these cues are not always included in the computation of sensorimotor confidence.

Cardiac pump function arises from a series of highly orchestrated events across multiple scales. Computational electromechanics can encode these events in physics-constrained models. However, the large number of parameters in these models has made the systematic study of the link between cellular, tissue, and organ scale parameters to whole heart physiology challenging. A patient-specific anatomical heart model, or digital twin, was created. Cellular ionic dynamics and contraction were simulated with the Courtemanche-Land and the ToR-ORd-Land models for the atria and the ventricles, respectively. Whole heart contraction was coupled with the circulatory system, simulated with CircAdapt, while accounting for the effect of the pericardium on cardiac motion. The four-chamber electromechanics framework resulted in 117 parameters of interest. The model was broken into five hierarchical sub-models: tissue electrophysiology, ToR-ORd-Land model, Courtemanche-Land model, passive mechanics and CircAdapt. For each sub-model, we trained Gaussian processes emulators (GPEs) that were then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to retain parameters explaining 90% of the total sensitivity for subsequent analysis. We identified 45 out of 117 parameters that were important for whole heart function. We performed a GSA over these 45 parameters and identified the systemic and pulmonary peripheral resistance as being critical parameters for a wide range of volumetric and hemodynamic cardiac indexes across all four chambers. We have shown that GPEs provide a robust method for mapping between cellular properties and clinical measurements. This could be applied to identify parameters that can be calibrated in patient-specific models or digital twins, and to link cellular function to clinical indexes.

Morphometric analysis of wings has been suggested for identifying and controlling isolated populations of tsetse (Glossina spp), vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis in Africa. Single-wing images were captured from an extensive data set of field-collected tsetse wings of species Glossina pallidipes and G. m. morsitans. Morphometric analysis required locating 11 anatomical landmarks on each wing. The manual location of landmarks is time-consuming, prone to error, and infeasible for large data sets. We developed a two-tier method using deep learning architectures to classify images and make accurate landmark predictions. The first tier used a classification convolutional neural network to remove most wings that were missing landmarks. The second tier provided landmark coordinates for the remaining wings. We compared direct coordinate regression using a convolutional neural network and segmentation using a fully convolutional network for the second tier. For the resulting landmark predictions, we evaluate shape bias using Procrustes analysis. We pay particular attention to consistent labelling to improve model performance. For an image size of 1024 × 1280, data augmentation reduced the mean pixel distance error from 8.3 (95% confidence interval [4.4,10.3]) to 5.34 (95% confidence interval [3.0,7.0]) for the regression model. For the segmentation model, data augmentation did not alter the mean pixel distance error of 3.43 (95% confidence interval [1.9,4.4]). Segmentation had a higher computational complexity and some large outliers. Both models showed minimal shape bias. We deployed the regression model on the complete unannotated data consisting of 14,354 pairs of wing images since this model had a lower computational cost and more stable predictions than the segmentation model. The resulting landmark data set was provided for future morphometric analysis. The methods we have developed could provide a starting point to studying the wings of other insect species. All the code used in this study has been written in Python and open sourced.

The intricate dependency structure of biological "omics" data, particularly those originating from longitudinal intervention studies with frequently sampled repeated measurements renders the analysis of such data challenging. The high-dimensionality, inter-relatedness of multiple outcomes, and heterogeneity in the studied systems all add to the difficulty in deriving meaningful information. In addition, the subtle differences in dynamics often deemed meaningful in nutritional intervention studies can be particularly challenging to quantify. In this work we demonstrate the use of quantitative longitudinal models within the repeated-measures ANOVA simultaneous component analysis+ (RM-ASCA+) framework to capture the dynamics in frequently sampled longitudinal data with multivariate outcomes. We illustrate the use of linear mixed models with polynomial and spline basis expansion of the time variable within RM-ASCA+ in order to quantify non-linear dynamics in a simulation study as well as in a metabolomics data set. We show that the proposed approach presents a convenient and interpretable way to systematically quantify and summarize multivariate outcomes in longitudinal studies while accounting for proper within subject dependency structures.

Phosphoproteomics allows one to measure the activity of kinases that drive the fluxes of signal transduction pathways involved in biological processes such as immune function, senescence and cell growth. However, deriving knowledge of signalling network circuitry from these data is challenging due to a scarcity of phosphorylation sites that define kinase-kinase relationships. To address this issue, we previously identified around 6,000 phosphorylation sites as markers of kinase-kinase relationships (that may be conceptualised as network edges), from which empirical cell-model-specific weighted kinase networks may be reconstructed. Here, we assess whether the application of community detection algorithms to such networks can identify new components linked to canonical signalling pathways. Phosphoproteomics data from acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) cells treated separately with PI3K, AKT, MEK and ERK inhibitors were used to reconstruct individual kinase networks. We used modularity maximisation to detect communities in each network, and selected the community containing the main target of the inhibitor used to treat cells. These analyses returned communities that contained known canonical signalling components. Interestingly, in addition to canonical PI3K/AKT/mTOR members, the community assignments returned TTK (also known as MPS1) as a likely component of PI3K/AKT/mTOR signalling. We drew similar insights from an external phosphoproteomics dataset from breast cancer cells treated with rapamycin and oestrogen. We confirmed this observation with wet-lab laboratory experiments showing that TTK phosphorylation was decreased in AML cells treated with AKT and MTOR inhibitors. This study illustrates the application of community detection algorithms to the analysis of empirical kinase networks to uncover new members linked to canonical signalling pathways.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011024.].

The increasing availability of high-throughput sequencing (frequently termed next-generation sequencing (NGS)) data has created opportunities to gain deeper insights into the mechanisms of a number of diseases and is already impacting many areas of medicine and public health. The area of infectious diseases stands somewhat apart from other human diseases insofar as the relevant genomic data comes from the microbes rather than their human hosts. A particular concern about the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has driven the collection and reporting of large-scale datasets containing information from microbial genomes together with antimicrobial susceptibility test (AST) results. Unfortunately, the lack of clear standards or guiding principles for the reporting of such data is hampering the field's advancement. We therefore present our recommendations for the publication and sharing of genotype and phenotype data on AMR, in the form of 10 simple rules. The adoption of these recommendations will enhance AMR data interoperability and help enable its large-scale analyses using computational biology tools, including mathematical modelling and machine learning. We hope that these rules can shed light on often overlooked but nonetheless very necessary aspects of AMR data sharing and enhance the field's ability to address the problems of understanding AMR mechanisms, tracking their emergence and spread in populations, and predicting microbial susceptibility to antimicrobials for diagnostic purposes.

Craniosynostosis is a condition with neurologic and aesthetic sequelae requiring invasive surgery. Understanding its pathobiology requires familiarity with the processes underlying physiologic suture closure. Animal studies have shown that cyclical strain from chewing and suckling influences the closure of cranial vault sutures, especially the metopic, an important locus of craniosynostosis. However, there are no human data correlating strain patterns during chewing and suckling with the physiologically early closure pattern of the metopic suture. Furthermore, differences in craniofacial morphology make it challenging to directly extrapolate animal findings to humans. Eight finite-element analysis (FEA) models were built from craniofacial computer tomography (CT) scans at varying stages of metopic suture closure, including two with isolated non-syndromic metopic craniosynostosis. Muscle forces acting on the cranium during chewing and suckling were simulated using subject-specific jaw muscle cross-sectional areas. Chewing and suckling induced tension at the metopic and sagittal sutures, and compressed the coronal, lambdoid, and squamous sutures. Relative to other cranial vault sutures, the metopic suture experienced larger magnitudes of axial strain across the suture and a lower magnitude of shear strain. Strain across the metopic suture decreased during suture closure, but other sutures were unaffected. Strain patterns along the metopic suture mirrored the anterior to posterior sequence of closure: strain magnitudes were highest at the glabella and decreased posteriorly, with minima at the nasion and the anterior fontanelle. In models of physiologic suture closure, increased degree of metopic suture closure correlated with higher maximum principal strains across the frontal bone and mid-face, a strain regime not observed in models of severe metopic craniosynostosis. In summary, our work provides human evidence that bone strain patterns from chewing and suckling correlate with the physiologically early closure pattern of the metopic suture, and that deviations from physiologic strain regimes may contribute to clinically observed craniofacial dysmorphism.

The broad receptive field of the olfactory receptors constitutes the basis of a combinatorial code that allows animals to detect and discriminate many more odorants than the actual number of receptor types that they express. One drawback is that high odor concentrations recruit lower affinity receptors which can lead to the perception of qualitatively different odors. Here we addressed the contribution that signal-processing in the antennal lobe makes to reduce concentration dependence in odor representation. By means of calcium imaging and pharmacological approach we describe the contribution that GABA receptors play in terms of the amplitude and temporal profiles of the signals that convey odor information from the antennal lobes to higher brain centers. We found that GABA reduces the amplitude of odor elicited signals and the number of glomeruli that are recruited in an odor-concentration-dependent manner. Blocking GABA receptors decreases the correlation among glomerular activity patterns elicited by different concentrations of the same odor. In addition, we built a realistic mathematical model of the antennal lobe that was used to test the viability of the proposed mechanisms and to evaluate the processing properties of the AL network under conditions that cannot be achieved in physiology experiments. Interestingly, even though based on a rather simple topology and cell interactions solely mediated by GABAergic lateral inhibitions, the AL model reproduced key features of the AL response upon different odor concentrations and provides plausible solutions for concentration invariant recognition of odors by artificial sensors.

The COVID-19 pandemy has created a radically new situation where most countries provide raw measurements of their daily incidence and disclose them in real time. This enables new machine learning forecast strategies where the prediction might no longer be based just on the past values of the current incidence curve, but could take advantage of observations in many countries. We present such a simple global machine learning procedure using all past daily incidence trend curves. Each of the 27,418 COVID-19 incidence trend curves in our database contains the values of 56 consecutive days extracted from observed incidence curves across 61 world regions and countries. Given a current incidence trend curve observed over the past four weeks, its forecast in the next four weeks is computed by matching it with the first four weeks of all samples, and ranking them by their similarity to the query curve. Then the 28 days forecast is obtained by a statistical estimation combining the values of the 28 last observed days in those similar samples. Using comparison performed by the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub with the current state of the art forecast methods, we verify that the proposed global learning method, EpiLearn, compares favorably to methods forecasting from a single past curve.

As the key for biological sequence structure and function prediction, disease diagnosis and treatment, biological sequence similarity analysis has attracted more and more attentions. However, the exiting computational methods failed to accurately analyse the biological sequence similarities because of the various data types (DNA, RNA, protein, disease, etc) and their low sequence similarities (remote homology). Therefore, new concepts and techniques are desired to solve this challenging problem. Biological sequences (DNA, RNA and protein sequences) can be considered as the sentences of "the book of life", and their similarities can be considered as the biological language semantics (BLS). In this study, we are seeking the semantics analysis techniques derived from the natural language processing (NLP) to comprehensively and accurately analyse the biological sequence similarities. 27 semantics analysis methods derived from NLP were introduced to analyse biological sequence similarities, bringing new concepts and techniques to biological sequence similarity analysis. Experimental results show that these semantics analysis methods are able to facilitate the development of protein remote homology detection, circRNA-disease associations identification and protein function annotation, achieving better performance than the other state-of-the-art predictors in the related fields. Based on these semantics analysis methods, a platform called BioSeq-Diabolo has been constructed, which is named after a popular traditional sport in China. The users only need to input the embeddings of the biological sequence data. BioSeq-Diabolo will intelligently identify the task, and then accurately analyse the biological sequence similarities based on biological language semantics. BioSeq-Diabolo will integrate different biological sequence similarities in a supervised manner by using Learning to Rank (LTR), and the performance of the constructed methods will be evaluated and analysed so as to recommend the best methods for the users. The web server and stand-alone package of BioSeq-Diabolo can be accessed at http://bliulab.net/BioSeq-Diabolo/server/.

Accurately identifying potential piRNA-disease associations is of great importance in uncovering the pathogenesis of diseases. Recently, several machine-learning-based methods have been proposed for piRNA-disease association detection. However, they are suffering from the high sparsity of piRNA-disease association network and the Boolean representation of piRNA-disease associations ignoring the confidence coefficients. In this study, we propose a supplementarily weighted strategy to solve these disadvantages. Combined with Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs), a novel predictor called iPiDA-SWGCN is proposed for piRNA-disease association prediction. There are three main contributions of iPiDA-SWGCN: (i) Potential piRNA-disease associations are preliminarily supplemented in the sparse piRNA-disease network by integrating various basic predictors to enrich network structure information. (ii) The original Boolean piRNA-disease associations are assigned with different relevance confidence to learn node representations from neighbour nodes in varying degrees. (iii) The experimental results show that iPiDA-SWGCN achieves the best performance compared with the other state-of-the-art methods, and can predict new piRNA-disease associations.

Biological and social scientists have long been interested in understanding how to reconcile individual and collective interests in the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Many effective strategies have been proposed, and they are often categorized into one of two classes, 'partners' and 'rivals.' More recently, another class, 'friendly rivals,' has been identified in longer-memory strategy spaces. Friendly rivals qualify as both partners and rivals: They fully cooperate with themselves, like partners, but never allow their co-players to earn higher payoffs, like rivals. Although they have appealing theoretical properties, it is unclear whether they would emerge in an evolving population because most previous works focus on the memory-one strategy space, where no friendly rival strategy exists. To investigate this issue, we have conducted evolutionary simulations in well-mixed and group-structured populations and compared the evolutionary dynamics between memory-one and longer-memory strategy spaces. In a well-mixed population, the memory length does not make a major difference, and the key factors are the population size and the benefit of cooperation. Friendly rivals play a minor role because being a partner or a rival is often good enough in a given environment. It is in a group-structured population that memory length makes a stark difference: When longer-memory strategies are available, friendly rivals become dominant, and the cooperation level nearly reaches a maximum, even when the benefit of cooperation is so low that cooperation would not be achieved in a well-mixed population. This result highlights the important interaction between group structure and memory lengths that drive the evolution of cooperation.

The cell cycle consists of a series of orchestrated events controlled by molecular sensing and feedback networks that ultimately drive the duplication of total DNA and the subsequent division of a single parent cell into two daughter cells. The ability to block the cell cycle and synchronize cells within the same phase has helped understand factors that control cell cycle progression and the properties of each individual phase. Intriguingly, when cells are released from a synchronized state, they do not maintain synchronized cell division and rapidly become asynchronous. The rate and factors that control cellular desynchronization remain largely unknown. In this study, using a combination of experiments and simulations, we investigate the desynchronization properties in cervical cancer cells (HeLa) starting from the G1/S boundary following double-thymidine block. Propidium iodide (PI) DNA staining was used to perform flow cytometry cell cycle analysis at regular 8 hour intervals, and a custom auto-similarity function to assess the desynchronization and quantify the convergence to an asynchronous state. In parallel, we developed a single-cell phenomenological model the returns the DNA amount across the cell cycle stages and fitted the parameters using experimental data. Simulations of population of cells reveal that the cell cycle desynchronization rate is primarily sensitive to the variability of cell cycle duration within a population. To validate the model prediction, we introduced lipopolysaccharide (LPS) to increase cell cycle noise. Indeed, we observed an increase in cell cycle variability under LPS stimulation in HeLa cells, accompanied with an enhanced rate of cell cycle desynchronization. Our results show that the desynchronization rate of artificially synchronized in-phase cell populations can be used a proxy of the degree of variance in cell cycle periodicity, an underexplored axis in cell cycle research.

Interactions between transcription factor and target gene form the main part of gene regulation network in human, which are still complicating factors in biological research. Specifically, for nearly half of those interactions recorded in established database, their interaction types are yet to be confirmed. Although several computational methods exist to predict gene interactions and their type, there is still no method available to predict them solely based on topology information. To this end, we proposed here a graph-based prediction model called KGE-TGI and trained in a multi-task learning manner on a knowledge graph that we specially constructed for this problem. The KGE-TGI model relies on topology information rather than being driven by gene expression data. In this paper, we formulate the task of predicting interaction types of transcript factor and target genes as a multi-label classification problem for link types on a heterogeneous graph, coupled with solving another link prediction problem that is inherently related. We constructed a ground truth dataset as benchmark and evaluated the proposed method on it. As a result of the 5-fold cross experiments, the proposed method achieved average AUC values of 0.9654 and 0.9339 in the tasks of link prediction and link type classification, respectively. In addition, the results of a series of comparison experiments also prove that the introduction of knowledge information significantly benefits to the prediction and that our methodology achieve state-of-the-art performance in this problem.

Past studies have shown that incubation of human serum samples on high density peptide arrays followed by measurement of total antibody bound to each peptide sequence allows detection and discrimination of humoral immune responses to a variety of infectious diseases. This is true even though these arrays consist of peptides with near-random amino acid sequences that were not designed to mimic biological antigens. This "immunosignature" approach, is based on a statistical evaluation of the binding pattern for each sample but it ignores the information contained in the amino acid sequences that the antibodies are binding to. Here, similar array-based antibody profiles are instead used to train a neural network to model the sequence dependence of molecular recognition involved in the immune response of each sample. The binding profiles used resulted from incubating serum from 5 infectious disease cohorts (Hepatitis B and C, Dengue Fever, West Nile Virus and Chagas disease) and an uninfected cohort with 122,926 peptide sequences on an array. These sequences were selected quasi-randomly to represent an even but sparse sample of the entire possible combinatorial sequence space (~1012). This very sparse sampling of combinatorial sequence space was sufficient to capture a statistically accurate representation of the humoral immune response across the entire space. Processing array data using the neural network not only captures the disease-specific sequence-binding information but aggregates binding information with respect to sequence, removing sequence-independent noise and improving the accuracy of array-based classification of disease compared with the raw binding data. Because the neural network model is trained on all samples simultaneously, a highly condensed representation of the differential information between samples resides in the output layer of the model, and the column vectors from this layer can be used to represent each sample for classification or unsupervised clustering applications.

Predictive models, based upon epidemiological principles and fitted to surveillance data, play an increasingly important role in shaping regulatory and operational policies for emerging outbreaks. Data for parameterising these strategically important models are often scarce when rapid actions are required to change the course of an epidemic invading a new region. We introduce and test a flexible epidemiological framework for landscape-scale disease management of an emerging vector-borne pathogen for use with endemic and invading vector populations. We use the framework to analyse and predict the spread of Huanglongbing disease or citrus greening in the U.S. We estimate epidemiological parameters using survey data from one region (Texas) and show how to transfer and test parameters to construct predictive spatio-temporal models for another region (California). The models are used to screen effective coordinated and reactive management strategies for different regions.

Cycling of biologic or targeted synthetic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients due to non-response is a problem preventing and delaying disease control. We aimed to assess and validate treatment response of b/tsDMARDs among clusters of RA patients identified by deep learning. We clustered RA patients clusters at first-time b/tsDMARD (cohort entry) in the Swiss Clinical Quality Management in Rheumatic Diseases registry (SCQM) [1999-2018]. We performed comparative effectiveness analyses of b/tsDMARDs (ref. adalimumab) using Cox proportional hazard regression. Within 15 months, we assessed b/tsDMARD stop due to non-response, and separately a ≥20% reduction in DAS28-esr as a response proxy. We validated results through stratified analyses according to most distinctive patient characteristics of clusters. Clusters comprised between 362 and 1481 patients (3516 unique patients). Stratified (validation) analyses confirmed comparative effectiveness results among clusters: Patients with ≥2 conventional synthetic DMARDs and prednisone at b/tsDMARD initiation, male patients, as well as patients with a lower disease burden responded better to tocilizumab than to adalimumab (hazard ratio [HR] 5.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.76-16.94], and HR 8.44 [3.43-20.74], and HR 3.64 [2.04-6.49], respectively). Furthermore, seronegative women without use of prednisone at b/tsDMARD initiation as well as seropositive women with a higher disease burden and longer disease duration had a higher risk of non-response with golimumab (HR 2.36 [1.03-5.40] and HR 5.27 [2.10-13.21], respectively) than with adalimumab. Our results suggest that RA patient clusters identified by deep learning may have different responses to first-line b/tsDMARD. Thus, it may suggest optimal first-line b/tsDMARD for certain RA patients, which is a step forward towards personalizing treatment. However, further research in other cohorts is needed to verify our results.

BACKGROUND: Microbiome research is providing important new insights into the metabolic interactions of complex microbial ecosystems involved in fields as diverse as the pathogenesis of human diseases, agriculture and climate change. Poor correlations typically observed between RNA and protein expression datasets make it hard to accurately infer microbial protein synthesis from metagenomic data. Additionally, mass spectrometry-based metaproteomic analyses typically rely on focused search sequence databases based on prior knowledge for protein identification that may not represent all the proteins present in a set of samples. Metagenomic 16S rRNA sequencing only targets the bacterial component, while whole genome sequencing is at best an indirect measure of expressed proteomes. Here we describe a novel approach, MetaNovo, that combines existing open-source software tools to perform scalable de novo sequence tag matching with a novel algorithm for probabilistic optimization of the entire UniProt knowledgebase to create tailored sequence databases for target-decoy searches directly at the proteome level, enabling metaproteomic analyses without prior expectation of sample composition or metagenomic data generation and compatible with standard downstream analysis pipelines. RESULTS: We compared MetaNovo to published results from the MetaPro-IQ pipeline on 8 human mucosal-luminal interface samples, with comparable numbers of peptide and protein identifications, many shared peptide sequences and a similar bacterial taxonomic distribution compared to that found using a matched metagenome sequence database-but simultaneously identified many more non-bacterial peptides than the previous approaches. MetaNovo was also benchmarked on samples of known microbial composition against matched metagenomic and whole genomic sequence database workflows, yielding many more MS/MS identifications for the expected taxa, with improved taxonomic representation, while also highlighting previously described genome sequencing quality concerns for one of the organisms, and identifying an experimental sample contaminant without prior expectation. CONCLUSIONS: By estimating taxonomic and peptide level information directly on microbiome samples from tandem mass spectrometry data, MetaNovo enables the simultaneous identification of peptides from all domains of life in metaproteome samples, bypassing the need for curated sequence databases to search. We show that the MetaNovo approach to mass spectrometry metaproteomics is more accurate than current gold standard approaches of tailored or matched genomic sequence database searches, can identify sample contaminants without prior expectation and yields insights into previously unidentified metaproteomic signals, building on the potential for complex mass spectrometry metaproteomic data to speak for itself.

In clinical neuroscience, epileptic seizures have been associated with the sudden emergence of coupled activity across the brain. The resulting functional networks-in which edges indicate strong enough coupling between brain regions-are consistent with the notion of percolation, which is a phenomenon in complex networks corresponding to the sudden emergence of a giant connected component. Traditionally, work has concentrated on noise-free percolation with a monotonic process of network growth, but real-world networks are more complex. We develop a class of random graph hidden Markov models (RG-HMMs) for characterizing percolation regimes in noisy, dynamically evolving networks in the presence of edge birth and edge death. This class is used to understand the type of phase transitions undergone in a seizure, and in particular, distinguishing between different percolation regimes in epileptic seizures. We develop a hypothesis testing framework for inferring putative percolation mechanisms. As a necessary precursor, we present an EM algorithm for estimating parameters from a sequence of noisy networks only observed at a longitudinal subsampling of time points. Our results suggest that different types of percolation can occur in human seizures. The type inferred may suggest tailored treatment strategies and provide new insights into the fundamental science of epilepsy.

Antibiotic resistance poses mounting risks to human health, as current antibiotics are losing efficacy against increasingly resistant pathogenic bacteria. Of particular concern is the emergence of multidrug-resistant strains, which has been rapid among Gram-negative bacteria such as Escherichia coli. A large body of work has established that antibiotic resistance mechanisms depend on phenotypic heterogeneity, which may be mediated by stochastic expression of antibiotic resistance genes. The link between such molecular-level expression and the population levels that result is complex and multi-scale. Therefore, to better understand antibiotic resistance, what is needed are new mechanistic models that reflect single-cell phenotypic dynamics together with population-level heterogeneity, as an integrated whole. In this work, we sought to bridge single-cell and population-scale modeling by building upon our previous experience in "whole-cell" modeling, an approach which integrates mathematical and mechanistic descriptions of biological processes to recapitulate the experimentally observed behaviors of entire cells. To extend whole-cell modeling to the "whole-colony" scale, we embedded multiple instances of a whole-cell E. coli model within a model of a dynamic spatial environment, allowing us to run large, parallelized simulations on the cloud that contained all the molecular detail of the previous whole-cell model and many interactive effects of a colony growing in a shared environment. The resulting simulations were used to explore the response of E. coli to two antibiotics with different mechanisms of action, tetracycline and ampicillin, enabling us to identify sub-generationally-expressed genes, such as the beta-lactamase ampC, which contributed greatly to dramatic cellular differences in steady-state periplasmic ampicillin and was a significant factor in determining cell survival.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the deadliest infectious diseases in the world, causing ~1.5 million deaths every year. The World Health Organization initiated an End TB Strategy that aims to reduce TB-related deaths in 2035 by 95%. Recent research goals have focused on discovering more effective and more patient-friendly antibiotic drug regimens to increase patient compliance and decrease emergence of resistant TB. Moxifloxacin is one promising antibiotic that may improve the current standard regimen by shortening treatment time. Clinical trials and in vivo mouse studies suggest that regimens containing moxifloxacin have better bactericidal activity. However, testing every possible combination regimen with moxifloxacin either in vivo or clinically is not feasible due to experimental and clinical limitations. To identify better regimens more systematically, we simulated pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics of various regimens (with and without moxifloxacin) to evaluate efficacies, and then compared our predictions to both clinical trials and nonhuman primate studies performed herein. We used GranSim, our well-established hybrid agent-based model that simulates granuloma formation and antibiotic treatment, for this task. In addition, we established a multiple-objective optimization pipeline using GranSim to discover optimized regimens based on treatment objectives of interest, i.e., minimizing total drug dosage and lowering time needed to sterilize granulomas. Our approach can efficiently test many regimens and successfully identify optimal regimens to inform pre-clinical studies or clinical trials and ultimately accelerate the TB regimen discovery process.

An object's colour, brightness and pattern are all influenced by its surroundings, and a number of visual phenomena and "illusions" have been discovered that highlight these often dramatic effects. Explanations for these phenomena range from low-level neural mechanisms to high-level processes that incorporate contextual information or prior knowledge. Importantly, few of these phenomena can currently be accounted for in quantitative models of colour appearance. Here we ask to what extent colour appearance is predicted by a model based on the principle of coding efficiency. The model assumes that the image is encoded by noisy spatio-chromatic filters at one octave separations, which are either circularly symmetrical or oriented. Each spatial band's lower threshold is set by the contrast sensitivity function, and the dynamic range of the band is a fixed multiple of this threshold, above which the response saturates. Filter outputs are then reweighted to give equal power in each channel for natural images. We demonstrate that the model fits human behavioural performance in psychophysics experiments, and also primate retinal ganglion responses. Next, we systematically test the model's ability to qualitatively predict over 50 brightness and colour phenomena, with almost complete success. This implies that much of colour appearance is potentially attributable to simple mechanisms evolved for efficient coding of natural images, and is a well-founded basis for modelling the vision of humans and other animals.

Stand-alone life science training events and e-learning solutions are among the most sought-after modes of training because they address both point-of-need learning and the limited timeframes available for "upskilling." Yet, finding relevant life sciences training courses and materials is challenging because such resources are not marked up for internet searches in a consistent way. This absence of markup standards to facilitate discovery, re-use, and aggregation of training resources limits their usefulness and knowledge translation potential. Through a joint effort between the Global Organisation for Bioinformatics Learning, Education and Training (GOBLET), the Bioschemas Training community, and the ELIXIR FAIR Training Focus Group, a set of Bioschemas Training profiles has been developed, published, and implemented for life sciences training courses and materials. Here, we describe our development approach and methods, which were based on the Bioschemas model, and present the results for the 3 Bioschemas Training profiles: TrainingMaterial, Course, and CourseInstance. Several implementation challenges were encountered, which we discuss alongside potential solutions. Over time, continued implementation of these Bioschemas Training profiles by training providers will obviate the barriers to skill development, facilitating both the discovery of relevant training events to meet individuals' learning needs, and the discovery and re-use of training and instructional materials.

In the normal lung, the dominant cable is an elastic "line element" composed of elastin fibers bound to a protein scaffold. The cable line element maintains alveolar geometry by balancing surface forces within the alveolus and changes in lung volume with exercise. Recent work in the postnatal rat lung has suggested that the process of cable development is self-organized in the extracellular matrix. Early in postnatal development, a blanket of tropoelastin (TE) spheres appear in the primitive lung. Within 7 to 10 days, the TE spheres are incorporated into a distributed protein scaffold creating the mature cable line element. To study the process of extracellular assembly, we used cellular automata (CA) simulations. CA simulations demonstrated that the intermediate step of tropoelastin self-aggregation into TE spheres enhanced the efficiency of cable formation more than 5-fold. Similarly, the rate of tropoelastin production had a direct impact on the efficiency of scaffold binding. The binding affinity of the tropoelastin to the protein scaffold, potentially reflecting heritable traits, also had a significant impact on cable development. In contrast, the spatial distribution of TE monomer production, increased Brownian motion and variations in scaffold geometry did not significantly impact simulations of cable development. We conclude that CA simulations are useful in exploring the impact of concentration, geometry, and movement on the fundamental process of elastogenesis.

DNA methylation is an important regulator of gene transcription. WGBS is the gold-standard approach for base-pair resolution quantitative of DNA methylation. It requires high sequencing depth. Many CpG sites with insufficient coverage in the WGBS data, resulting in inaccurate DNA methylation levels of individual sites. Many state-of-arts computation methods were proposed to predict the missing value. However, many methods required either other omics datasets or other cross-sample data. And most of them only predicted the state of DNA methylation. In this study, we proposed the RcWGBS, which can impute the missing (or low coverage) values from the DNA methylation levels on the adjacent sides. Deep learning techniques were employed for the accurate prediction. The WGBS datasets of H1-hESC and GM12878 were down-sampled. The average difference between the DNA methylation level at 12× depth predicted by RcWGBS and that at >50× depth in the H1-hESC and GM2878 cells are less than 0.03 and 0.01, respectively. RcWGBS performed better than METHimpute even though the sequencing depth was as low as 12×. Our work would help to process methylation data of low sequencing depth. It is beneficial for researchers to save sequencing costs and improve data utilization through computational methods.

A substantial fraction of the bacterial cytosol is occupied by catalysts and their substrates. While a higher volume density of catalysts and substrates might boost biochemical fluxes, the resulting molecular crowding can slow down diffusion, perturb the reactions' Gibbs free energies, and reduce the catalytic efficiency of proteins. Due to these tradeoffs, dry mass density likely possesses an optimum that facilitates maximal cellular growth and that is interdependent on the cytosolic molecule size distribution. Here, we analyze the balanced growth of a model cell, accounting systematically for crowding effects on reaction kinetics. Its optimal cytosolic volume occupancy depends on the nutrient-dependent resource allocation into large ribosomal vs. small metabolic macromolecules, reflecting a tradeoff between the saturation of metabolic enzymes, favoring larger occupancies with higher encounter rates, and the inhibition of the ribosomes, favoring lower occupancies with unhindered diffusion of tRNAs. Our predictions across growth rates are quantitatively consistent with the experimentally observed reduction in volume occupancy on rich media compared to minimal media in E. coli. Strong deviations from optimal cytosolic occupancy only lead to minute reductions in growth rate, which are nevertheless evolutionarily relevant due to large bacterial population sizes. In sum, cytosolic density variation in bacterial cells appears to be consistent with an optimality principle of cellular efficiency.

The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010527.].

Sensory inputs in nervous systems are often encoded at the millisecond scale in a precise spike timing code. There is now growing evidence in behaviors ranging from slow breathing to rapid flight for the prevalence of precise timing encoding in motor systems. Despite this, we largely do not know at what scale timing matters in these circuits due to the difficulty of recording a complete set of spike-resolved motor signals and assessing spike timing precision for encoding continuous motor signals. We also do not know if the precision scale varies depending on the functional role of different motor units. We introduce a method to estimate spike timing precision in motor circuits using continuous MI estimation at increasing levels of added uniform noise. This method can assess spike timing precision at fine scales for encoding rich motor output variation. We demonstrate the advantages of this approach compared to a previously established discrete information theoretic method of assessing spike timing precision. We use this method to analyze the precision in a nearly complete, spike resolved recording of the 10 primary wing muscles control flight in an agile hawk moth, Manduca sexta. Tethered moths visually tracked a robotic flower producing a range of turning (yaw) torques. We know that all 10 muscles in this motor program encode the majority of information about yaw torque in spike timings, but we do not know whether individual muscles encode motor information at different levels of precision. We demonstrate that the scale of temporal precision in all motor units in this insect flight circuit is at the sub-millisecond or millisecond-scale, with variation in precision scale present between muscle types. This method can be applied broadly to estimate spike timing precision in sensory and motor circuits in both invertebrates and vertebrates.

COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted individuals depending on where they live and work, and based on their race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Studies have documented catastrophic disparities at critical points throughout the pandemic, but have not yet systematically tracked their severity through time. Using anonymized hospitalization data from March 11, 2020 to June 1, 2021 and fine-grain infection hospitalization rates, we estimate the time-varying burden of COVID-19 by age group and ZIP code in Austin, Texas. During this 15-month period, we estimate an overall 23.7% (95% CrI: 22.5-24.8%) infection rate and 29.4% (95% CrI: 28.0-31.0%) case reporting rate. Individuals over 65 were less likely to be infected than younger age groups (11.2% [95% CrI: 10.3-12.0%] vs 25.1% [95% CrI: 23.7-26.4%]), but more likely to be hospitalized (1,965 per 100,000 vs 376 per 100,000) and have their infections reported (53% [95% CrI: 49-57%] vs 28% [95% CrI: 27-30%]). We used a mixed effect poisson regression model to estimate disparities in infection and reporting rates as a function of social vulnerability. We compared ZIP codes ranking in the 75th percentile of vulnerability to those in the 25th percentile, and found that the more vulnerable communities had 2.5 (95% CrI: 2.0-3.0) times the infection rate and only 70% (95% CrI: 60%-82%) the reporting rate compared to the less vulnerable communities. Inequality persisted but declined significantly over the 15-month study period. Our results suggest that further public health efforts are needed to mitigate local COVID-19 disparities and that the CDC's social vulnerability index may serve as a reliable predictor of risk on a local scale when surveillance data are limited.

Human behavior emerges from planning over elaborate decompositions of tasks into goals, subgoals, and low-level actions. How are these decompositions created and used? Here, we propose and evaluate a normative framework for task decomposition based on the simple idea that people decompose tasks to reduce the overall cost of planning while maintaining task performance. Analyzing 11,117 distinct graph-structured planning tasks, we find that our framework justifies several existing heuristics for task decomposition and makes predictions that can be distinguished from two alternative normative accounts. We report a behavioral study of task decomposition (N = 806) that uses 30 randomly sampled graphs, a larger and more diverse set than that of any previous behavioral study on this topic. We find that human responses are more consistent with our framework for task decomposition than alternative normative accounts and are most consistent with a heuristic-betweenness centrality-that is justified by our approach. Taken together, our results suggest the computational cost of planning is a key principle guiding the intelligent structuring of goal-directed behavior.