Recent experimental works have implicated astrocytes as a significant cell type underlying several neuronal processes in the mammalian brain, from encoding sensory information to neurological disorders. Despite this progress, it is still unclear how astrocytes are communicating with and driving their neuronal neighbors. While previous computational modeling works have helped propose mechanisms responsible for driving these interactions, they have primarily focused on interactions at the synaptic level, with microscale models of calcium dynamics and neurotransmitter diffusion. Since it is computationally infeasible to include the intricate microscale details in a network-scale model, little computational work has been done to understand how astrocytes may be influencing spiking patterns and synchronization of large networks. We overcome this issue by first developing an "effective" astrocyte that can be easily implemented to already established network frameworks. We do this by showing that the astrocyte proximity to a synapse makes synaptic transmission faster, weaker, and less reliable. Thus, our "effective" astrocytes can be incorporated by considering heterogeneous synaptic time constants, which are parametrized only by the degree of astrocytic proximity at that synapse. We then apply our framework to large networks of exponential integrate-and-fire neurons with various spatial structures. Depending on key parameters, such as the number of synapses ensheathed and the strength of this ensheathment, we show that astrocytes can push the network to a synchronous state and exhibit spatially correlated patterns.

The impact of variants of concern (VoC) on SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics remains poorly understood and essentially relies on observational studies subject to various sorts of biases. In contrast, experimental models of infection constitute a powerful model to perform controlled comparisons of the viral dynamics observed with VoC and better quantify how VoC escape from the immune response. Here we used molecular and infectious viral load of 78 cynomolgus macaques to characterize in detail the effects of VoC on viral dynamics. We first developed a mathematical model that recapitulate the observed dynamics, and we found that the best model describing the data assumed a rapid antigen-dependent stimulation of the immune response leading to a rapid reduction of viral infectivity. When compared with the historical variant, all VoC except beta were associated with an escape from this immune response, and this effect was particularly sensitive for delta and omicron variant (p<10-6 for both). Interestingly, delta variant was associated with a 1.8-fold increased viral production rate (p = 0.046), while conversely omicron variant was associated with a 14-fold reduction in viral production rate (p<10-6). During a natural infection, our models predict that delta variant is associated with a higher peak viral RNA than omicron variant (7.6 log10 copies/mL 95% CI 6.8-8 for delta; 5.6 log10 copies/mL 95% CI 4.8-6.3 for omicron) while having similar peak infectious titers (3.7 log10 PFU/mL 95% CI 2.4-4.6 for delta; 2.8 log10 PFU/mL 95% CI 1.9-3.8 for omicron). These results provide a detailed picture of the effects of VoC on total and infectious viral load and may help understand some differences observed in the patterns of viral transmission of these viruses.

The purple non-sulfur bacterium Rhodopseudomonas palustris is recognized as a critical microorganism in the nitrogen and carbon cycle and one of the most common members in wastewater treatment communities. This bacterium is metabolically extremely versatile. It is capable of heterotrophic growth under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, but also able to grow photoautotrophically as well as mixotrophically. Therefore R. palustris can adapt to multiple environments and establish commensal relationships with other organisms, expressing various enzymes supporting degradation of amino acids, carbohydrates, nucleotides, and complex polymers. Moreover, R. palustris can degrade a wide range of pollutants under anaerobic conditions, e.g., aromatic compounds such as benzoate and caffeate, enabling it to thrive in chemically contaminated environments. However, many metabolic mechanisms employed by R. palustris to breakdown and assimilate different carbon and nitrogen sources under chemoheterotrophic or photoheterotrophic conditions remain unknown. Systems biology approaches, such as metabolic modeling, have been employed extensively to unravel complex mechanisms of metabolism. Previously, metabolic models have been reconstructed to study selected capabilities of R. palustris under limited experimental conditions. Here, we developed a comprehensive metabolic model (M-model) for R. palustris Bis A53 (iDT1294) consisting of 2,721 reactions, 2,123 metabolites, and comprising 1,294 genes. We validated the model using high-throughput phenotypic, physiological, and kinetic data, testing over 350 growth conditions. iDT1294 achieved a prediction accuracy of 90% for growth with various carbon and nitrogen sources and close to 80% for assimilation of aromatic compounds. Moreover, the M-model accurately predicts dynamic changes of growth and substrate consumption rates over time under nine chemoheterotrophic conditions and demonstrated high precision in predicting metabolic changes between photoheterotrophic and photoautotrophic conditions. This comprehensive M-model will help to elucidate metabolic processes associated with the assimilation of multiple carbon and nitrogen sources, anoxygenic photosynthesis, aromatic compound degradation, as well as production of molecular hydrogen and polyhydroxybutyrate.

A pedestrian crossing a street during rush hour often looks and listens for potential danger. When they hear several different horns, they localize the cars that are honking and decide whether or not they need to modify their motor plan. How does the pedestrian use this auditory information to pick out the corresponding cars in visual space? The integration of distributed representations like these is called the assignment problem, and it must be solved to integrate distinct representations across but also within sensory modalities. Here, we identify and analyze a solution to the assignment problem: the representation of one or more common stimulus features in pairs of relevant brain regions-for example, estimates of the spatial position of cars are represented in both the visual and auditory systems. We characterize how the reliability of this solution depends on different features of the stimulus set (e.g., the size of the set and the complexity of the stimuli) and the details of the split representations (e.g., the precision of each stimulus representation and the amount of overlapping information). Next, we implement this solution in a biologically plausible receptive field code and show how constraints on the number of neurons and spikes used by the code force the brain to navigate a tradeoff between local and catastrophic errors. We show that, when many spikes and neurons are available, representing stimuli from a single sensory modality can be done more reliably across multiple brain regions, despite the risk of assignment errors. Finally, we show that a feedforward neural network can learn the optimal solution to the assignment problem, even when it receives inputs in two distinct representational formats. We also discuss relevant results on assignment errors from the human working memory literature and show that several key predictions of our theory already have support.

Significant research has investigated synchronisation in brain networks, but the bulk of this work has explored the contribution of brain networks at the macroscale. Here we explore the effects of changing network topology on functional dynamics in spatially constrained random networks representing mesoscale neocortex. We use the Kuramoto model to simulate network dynamics and explore synchronisation and critical dynamics of the system as a function of topology in randomly generated networks with a distance-related wiring probability and no preferential attachment term. We show networks which predominantly make short-distance connections smooth out the critical coupling point and show much greater metastability, resulting in a wider range of coupling strengths demonstrating critical dynamics and metastability. We show the emergence of cluster synchronisation in these geometrically-constrained networks with functional organisation occurring along structural connections that minimise the participation coefficient of the cluster. We show that these cohorts of internally synchronised nodes also behave en masse as weakly coupled nodes and show intra-cluster desynchronisation and resynchronisation events related to inter-cluster interaction. While cluster synchronisation appears crucial to healthy brain function, it may also be pathological if it leads to unbreakable local synchronisation which may happen at extreme topologies, with implications for epilepsy research, wider brain function and other domains such as social networks.

Population structure is a well-known catalyst for the evolution of cooperation and has traditionally been considered to be static in the course of evolution. Conversely, real-world populations, such as microbiome communities and online social networks, frequently show a progression from tiny, active groups to huge, stable communities, which is insufficient to be captured by constant structures. Here, we propose sequential temporal networks to characterize growing networked populations, and we extend the theory of evolutionary games to these temporal networks with arbitrary structures and growth rules. We derive analytical rules under which a sequential temporal network has a higher fixation probability for cooperation than its static counterpart. Under neutral drift, the rule is simply a function of the increment of nodes and edges in each time step. But if the selection is weak, the rule is related to coalescence times on networks. In this case, we propose a mean-field approximation to calculate fixation probabilities and critical benefit-to-cost ratios with lower calculation complexity. Numerical simulations in empirical datasets also prove the cooperation-promoting effect of population growth. Our research stresses the significance of population growth in the real world and provides a high-accuracy approximation approach for analyzing the evolution in real-life systems.

The activity of neurons in the visual cortex is often characterized by tuning curves, which are thought to be shaped by Hebbian plasticity during development and sensory experience. This leads to the prediction that neural circuits should be organized such that neurons with similar functional preference are connected with stronger weights. In support of this idea, previous experimental and theoretical work have provided evidence for a model of the visual cortex characterized by such functional subnetworks. A recent experimental study, however, have found that the postsynaptic preferred stimulus was defined by the total number of spines activated by a given stimulus and independent of their individual strength. While this result might seem to contradict previous literature, there are many factors that define how a given synaptic input influences postsynaptic selectivity. Here, we designed a computational model in which postsynaptic functional preference is defined by the number of inputs activated by a given stimulus. Using a plasticity rule where synaptic weights tend to correlate with presynaptic selectivity, and is independent of functional-similarity between pre- and postsynaptic activity, we find that this model can be used to decode presented stimuli in a manner that is comparable to maximum likelihood inference.

Recurrent network models are instrumental in investigating how behaviorally-relevant computations emerge from collective neural dynamics. A recently developed class of models based on low-rank connectivity provides an analytically tractable framework for understanding of how connectivity structure determines the geometry of low-dimensional dynamics and the ensuing computations. Such models however lack some fundamental biological constraints, and in particular represent individual neurons in terms of abstract units that communicate through continuous firing rates rather than discrete action potentials. Here we examine how far the theoretical insights obtained from low-rank rate networks transfer to more biologically plausible networks of spiking neurons. Adding a low-rank structure on top of random excitatory-inhibitory connectivity, we systematically compare the geometry of activity in networks of integrate-and-fire neurons to rate networks with statistically equivalent low-rank connectivity. We show that the mean-field predictions of rate networks allow us to identify low-dimensional dynamics at constant population-average activity in spiking networks, as well as novel non-linear regimes of activity such as out-of-phase oscillations and slow manifolds. We finally exploit these results to directly build spiking networks that perform nonlinear computations.

Mechanical forces are critical for the emergence of diverse three-dimensional morphologies of multicellular systems. However, it remains unclear what kind of mechanical parameters at cellular level substantially contribute to tissue morphologies. This is largely due to technical limitations of live measurements of cellular forces. Here we developed a framework for inferring and modeling mechanical forces of cell-cell interactions. First, by analogy to coarse-grained models in molecular and colloidal sciences, we approximated cells as particles, where mean forces (i.e. effective forces) of pairwise cell-cell interactions are considered. Then, the forces were statistically inferred by fitting the mathematical model to cell tracking data. This method was validated by using synthetic cell tracking data resembling various in vivo situations. Application of our method to the cells in the early embryos of mice and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans revealed that cell-cell interaction forces can be written as a pairwise potential energy in a manner dependent on cell-cell distances. Importantly, the profiles of the pairwise potentials were quantitatively different among species and embryonic stages, and the quantitative differences correctly described the differences of their morphological features such as spherical vs. distorted cell aggregates, and tightly vs. non-tightly assembled aggregates. We conclude that the effective pairwise potential of cell-cell interactions is a live measurable parameter whose quantitative differences can be a parameter describing three-dimensional tissue morphologies.

Because SARS-CoV-2 constantly mutates to escape from the immune response, there is a reduction of neutralizing capacity of antibodies initially targeting the historical strain against emerging Variants of Concern (VoC)s. That is why the measure of the protection conferred by vaccination cannot solely rely on the antibody levels, but also requires to measure their neutralization capacity. Here we used a mathematical model to follow the humoral response in 26 individuals that received up to three vaccination doses of Bnt162b2 vaccine, and for whom both anti-S IgG and neutralization capacity was measured longitudinally against all main VoCs. Our model could identify two independent mechanisms that led to a marked increase in measured humoral response over the successive vaccination doses. In addition to the already known increase in IgG levels after each dose, we identified that the neutralization capacity was significantly increased after the third vaccine administration against all VoCs, despite large inter-individual variability. Consequently, the model projects that the mean duration of detectable neutralizing capacity against non-Omicron VoC is between 348 days (Beta variant, 95% Prediction Intervals PI [307; 389]) and 587 days (Alpha variant, 95% PI [537; 636]). Despite the low neutralization levels after three doses, the mean duration of detectable neutralizing capacity against Omicron variants varies between 173 days (BA.5 variant, 95% PI [142; 200]) and 256 days (BA.1 variant, 95% PI [227; 286]). Our model shows the benefit of incorporating the neutralization capacity in the follow-up of patients to better inform on their level of protection against the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Trial registration: This clinical trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial IDs NCT04750720 and NCT05315583.

Complexome profiling allows large-scale, untargeted, and comprehensive characterization of protein complexes in a biological sample using a combined approach of separating intact protein complexes e.g., by native gel electrophoresis, followed by mass spectrometric analysis of the proteins in the resulting fractions. Over the last decade, its application has resulted in a large collection of complexome profiling datasets. While computational methods have been developed for the analysis of individual datasets, methods for large-scale comparative analysis of complexomes from multiple species are lacking. Here, we present Comparative Clustering (CompaCt), that performs fully automated integrative analysis of complexome profiling data from multiple species, enabling systematic characterization and comparison of complexomes. CompaCt implements a novel method for leveraging orthology in comparative analysis to allow systematic identification of conserved as well as taxon-specific elements of the analyzed complexomes. We applied this method to a collection of 53 complexome profiles spanning the major branches of the eukaryotes. We demonstrate the ability of CompaCt to robustly identify the composition of protein complexes, and show that integrated analysis of multiple datasets improves characterization of complexes from specific complexome profiles when compared to separate analyses. We identified novel candidate interactors and complexes in a number of species from previously analyzed datasets, like the emp24, the V-ATPase and mitochondrial ATP synthase complexes. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of CompaCt for the automated large-scale characterization of the complexome of the mosquito Anopheles stephensi shedding light on the evolution of metazoan protein complexes. CompaCt is available from https://github.com/cmbi/compact-bio.

Undetected infections fuel the dissemination of many infectious agents. However, identification of unobserved infectious individuals remains challenging due to limited observations of infections and imperfect knowledge of key transmission parameters. Here, we use an ensemble Bayesian inference method to infer unobserved infections using partial observations. The ensemble inference method can represent uncertainty in model parameters and update model states using all ensemble members collectively. We perform extensive experiments in both model-generated and real-world networks in which individuals have differential but unknown transmission rates. The ensemble method outperforms several alternative approaches for a variety of network structures and observation rates, despite that the model is mis-specified. Additionally, the computational complexity of this algorithm scales almost linearly with the number of nodes in the network and the number of observations, respectively, exhibiting the potential to apply to large-scale networks. The inference method may support decision-making under uncertainty and be adapted for use for other dynamical models in networks.

Walking balance is central to independent mobility, and falls due to loss of balance are a leading cause of death for people 65 years of age and older. Bipedal gait is typically unstable, but healthy humans use corrective torques to counteract perturbations and stabilize gait. Exoskeleton assistance could benefit people with neuromuscular deficits by providing stabilizing torques at lower-limb joints to replace lost muscle strength and sensorimotor control. However, it is unclear how applied exoskeleton torques translate to changes in walking kinematics. This study used musculoskeletal simulation to investigate how exoskeleton torques applied to the ankle and subtalar joints alter center of mass kinematics during walking. We first created muscle-driven walking simulations using OpenSim Moco by tracking experimental kinematics and ground reaction forces recorded from five healthy adults. We then used forward integration to simulate the effect of exoskeleton torques applied to the ankle and subtalar joints while keeping muscle excitations fixed based on our previous tracking simulation results. Exoskeleton torque lasted for 15% of the gait cycle and was applied between foot-flat and toe-off during the stance phase, and changes in center of mass kinematics were recorded when the torque application ended. We found that changes in center of mass kinematics were dependent on both the type and timing of exoskeleton torques. Plantarflexion torques produced upward and backward changes in velocity of the center of mass in mid-stance and upward and smaller forward velocity changes near toe-off. Eversion and inversion torques primarily produced lateral and medial changes in velocity in mid-stance, respectively. Intrinsic muscle properties reduced kinematic changes from exoskeleton torques. Our results provide mappings between ankle plantarflexion and inversion-eversion torques and changes in center of mass kinematics which can inform designers building exoskeletons aimed at stabilizing balance during walking. Our simulations and software are freely available and allow researchers to explore the effects of applied torques on balance and gait.

Long-range horizontal connections (LRCs) are conspicuous anatomical structures in the primary visual cortex (V1) of mammals, yet their detailed functions in relation to visual processing are not fully understood. Here, we show that LRCs are key components to organize a "small-world network" optimized for each size of the visual cortex, enabling the cost-efficient integration of visual information. Using computational simulations of a biologically inspired model neural network, we found that sparse LRCs added to networks, combined with dense local connections, compose a small-world network and significantly enhance image classification performance. We confirmed that the performance of the network appeared to be strongly correlated with the small-world coefficient of the model network under various conditions. Our theoretical model demonstrates that the amount of LRCs to build a small-world network depends on each size of cortex and that LRCs are beneficial only when the size of the network exceeds a certain threshold. Our model simulation of various sizes of cortices validates this prediction and provides an explanation of the species-specific existence of LRCs in animal data. Our results provide insight into a biological strategy of the brain to balance functional performance and resource cost.

The cerebellum implements error-based motor learning via synaptic gain adaptation of an inverse model, i.e. the mapping of a spatial movement goal onto a motor command. Recently, we modeled the motor and perceptual changes during learning of saccadic eye movements, showing that learning is actually a threefold process. Besides motor recalibration of (1) the inverse model, learning also comprises perceptual recalibration of (2) the visuospatial target map and (3) of a forward dynamics model that estimates the saccade size from corollary discharge. Yet, the site of perceptual recalibration remains unclear. Here we dissociate cerebellar contributions to the three stages of learning by modeling the learning data of eight cerebellar patients and eight healthy controls. Results showed that cerebellar pathology restrains short-term recalibration of the inverse model while the forward dynamics model is well informed about the reduced saccade change. Adaptation of the visuospatial target map trended in learning direction only in control subjects, yet without reaching significance. Moreover, some patients showed a tendency for uncompensated oculomotor fatigue caused by insufficient upregulation of saccade duration. According to our model, this could induce long-term perceptual compensation, consistent with the overestimation of target eccentricity found in the patients' baseline data. We conclude that the cerebellum mediates short-term adaptation of the inverse model, especially by control of saccade duration, while the forward dynamics model was not affected by cerebellar pathology.

Single-cell approaches are revealing a high degree of heterogeneity, or noise, in gene expression in isogenic bacteria. How gene circuits modulate this noise in gene expression to generate robust output dynamics is unclear. Here we use the Bacillus subtilis alternative sigma factor σB as a model system for understanding the role of noise in generating circuit output dynamics. σB controls the general stress response in B. subtilis and is activated by a range of energy and environmental stresses. Recent single-cell studies have revealed that the circuit can generate two distinct outputs, stochastic pulsing and a single pulse response, but the conditions under which each response is generated are under debate. We implement a stochastic mathematical model of the σB circuit to investigate this and find that the system's core circuit can generate both response types. This is despite one response (stochastic pulsing) being stochastic in nature, and the other (single response pulse) being deterministic. We demonstrate that the main determinant for whichever response is generated is the degree with which the input pathway activates the core circuit, although the noise properties of the input pathway also biases the system towards one or the other type of output. Thus, our work shows how stochastic modelling can reveal the mechanisms behind non-intuitive gene circuit output dynamics.

Accumulating evidence suggests that circRNAs play crucial roles in human diseases. CircRNA-disease association prediction is extremely helpful in understanding pathogenesis, diagnosis, and prevention, as well as identifying relevant biomarkers. During the past few years, a large number of deep learning (DL) based methods have been proposed for predicting circRNA-disease association and achieved impressive prediction performance. However, there are two main drawbacks to these methods. The first is these methods underutilize biometric information in the data. Second, the features extracted by these methods are not outstanding to represent association characteristics between circRNAs and diseases. In this study, we developed a novel deep learning model, named iCircDA-NEAE, to predict circRNA-disease associations. In particular, we use disease semantic similarity, Gaussian interaction profile kernel, circRNA expression profile similarity, and Jaccard similarity simultaneously for the first time, and extract hidden features based on accelerated attribute network embedding (AANE) and dynamic convolutional autoencoder (DCAE). Experimental results on the circR2Disease dataset show that iCircDA-NEAE outperforms other competing methods significantly. Besides, 16 of the top 20 circRNA-disease pairs with the highest prediction scores were validated by relevant literature. Furthermore, we observe that iCircDA-NEAE can effectively predict new potential circRNA-disease associations.

Numerous computational methods based on sequences or structures have been developed for the characterization of protein function, but they are still unsatisfactory to deal with the multiple functions of multi-domain protein families. Here we propose an original approach based on 1) the detection of conserved sequence modules using partial local multiple alignment, 2) the phylogenetic inference of species/genes/modules/functions evolutionary histories, and 3) the identification of co-appearances of modules and functions. Applying our framework to the multidomain ADAMTS-TSL family including ADAMTS (A Disintegrin-like and Metalloproteinase with ThromboSpondin motif) and ADAMTS-like proteins over nine species including human, we identify 45 sequence module signatures that are associated with the occurrence of 278 Protein-Protein Interactions in ancestral genes. Some of these signatures are supported by published experimental data and the others provide new insights (e.g. ADAMTS-5). The module signatures of ADAMTS ancestors notably highlight the dual variability of the propeptide and ancillary regions suggesting the importance of these two regions in the specialization of ADAMTS during evolution. Our analyses further indicate convergent interactions of ADAMTS with COMP and CCN2 proteins. Overall, our study provides 186 sequence module signatures that discriminate distinct subgroups of ADAMTS and ADAMTSL and that may result from selective pressures on novel functions and phenotypes.

Artificial intelligence-powered protein structure prediction methods have led to a paradigm-shift in computational structural biology, yet contemporary approaches for predicting the interfacial residues (i.e., sites) of protein-protein interaction (PPI) still rely on experimental structures. Recent studies have demonstrated benefits of employing graph convolution for PPI site prediction, but ignore symmetries naturally occurring in 3-dimensional space and act only on experimental coordinates. Here we present EquiPPIS, an E(3) equivariant graph neural network approach for PPI site prediction. EquiPPIS employs symmetry-aware graph convolutions that transform equivariantly with translation, rotation, and reflection in 3D space, providing richer representations for molecular data compared to invariant convolutions. EquiPPIS substantially outperforms state-of-the-art approaches based on the same experimental input, and exhibits remarkable robustness by attaining better accuracy with predicted structural models from AlphaFold2 than what existing methods can achieve even with experimental structures. Freely available at https://github.com/Bhattacharya-Lab/EquiPPIS, EquiPPIS enables accurate PPI site prediction at scale.

The actin cytoskeleton is essential in eukaryotes, not least in the plant kingdom where it plays key roles in cell expansion, cell division, environmental responses and pathogen defence. Yet, the precise structure-function relationships of properties of the actin network in plants are still to be unravelled, including details of how the network configuration depends upon cell type, tissue type and developmental stage. Part of the problem lies in the difficulty of extracting high-quality, quantitative measures of actin network features from microscopy data. To address this problem, we have developed DRAGoN, a novel image analysis algorithm that can automatically extract the actin network across a range of cell types, providing seventeen different quantitative measures that describe the network at a local level. Using this algorithm, we then studied a number of cases in Arabidopsis thaliana, including several different tissues, a variety of actin-affected mutants, and cells responding to powdery mildew. In many cases we found statistically-significant differences in actin network properties. In addition to these results, our algorithm is designed to be easily adaptable to other tissues, mutants and plants, and so will be a valuable asset for the study and future biological engineering of the actin cytoskeleton in globally-important crops.

Multi-scale mathematical bioelectrical models of organs such as the uterus, stomach or heart present challenges both for accuracy and computational tractability. These multi-scale models are typically founded on models of biological cells derived from the classic Hodkgin-Huxley (HH) formalism. Ion channel behaviour is tracked with dynamical variables representing activation or inactivation of currents that relax to steady-state dependencies on cellular membrane voltage. Timescales for relaxation may be orders of magnitude faster than companion ion channel variables or phenomena of physiological interest for the entire cell (such as bursting sequences of action potentials) or the entire organ (such as electromechanical coordination). Exploiting these time scales with steady-state approximations for relatively fast-acting systems is a well-known but often overlooked approach as evidenced by recent published models. We thus investigate feasibility of an extensive reduction of order for an HH-type cell model with steady-state approximations to the full dynamical activation and inactivation ion channel variables. Our effort utilises a published comprehensive uterine smooth muscle cell model that encompasses 19 ordinary differential equations and 105 formulations overall. The numerous ion channel submodels in the published model exhibit relaxation times ranging from order 10-1 to 105 milliseconds. Substitution of the faster dynamic variables with steady-state formulations demonstrates both an accurate reproduction of the full model and substantial improvements in time-to-solve, for test cases performed. Our demonstration here of an effective and relatively straightforward reduction method underlines the particular importance of considering time scales for model simplification before embarking on large-scale computations or parameter sweeps. As a preliminary complement to more intensive reduction of order methods such as parameter sensitivity and bifurcation analysis, this approach can rapidly and accurately improve computational tractability for challenging multi-scale organ modelling efforts.

T cells form transient cell-to-cell contacts with antigen presenting cells (APCs) to facilitate surface interrogation by membrane bound T cell receptors (TCRs). Upon recognition of molecular signatures (antigen) of pathogen, T cells may initiate an adaptive immune response. The duration of the T cell/APC contact is observed to vary widely, yet it is unclear what constructive role, if any, such variations might play in immune signaling. Modeling efforts describing antigen discrimination often focus on steady-state approximations and do not account for the transient nature of cellular contacts. Within the framework of a kinetic proofreading (KP) mechanism, we develop a stochastic First Receptor Activation Model (FRAM) describing the likelihood that a productive immune signal is produced before the expiry of the contact. Through the use of extreme statistics, we characterize the probability that the first TCR triggering is induced by a rare agonist antigen and not by that of an abundant self-antigen. We show that defining positive immune outcomes as resilience to extreme statistics and sensitivity to rare events mitigates classic tradeoffs associated with KP. By choosing a sufficient number of KP steps, our model is able to yield single agonist sensitivity whilst remaining non-reactive to large populations of self antigen, even when self and agonist antigen are similar in dissociation rate to the TCR but differ largely in expression. Additionally, our model achieves high levels of accuracy even when agonist positive APCs encounters are rare. Finally, we discuss potential biological costs associated with high classification accuracy, particularly in challenging T cell environments.

Over the past 40 years, there has been a strong focus on the development of mathematical models of angiogenesis, while developmental remodelling has received little such attention from the mathematical community. Sprouting angiogenesis can be seen as a very crude way of laying out a primitive vessel network (the raw material), while remodelling (understood as pruning of redundant vessels, diameter control, and the establishment of vessel identity and hierarchy) is the key to turning that primitive network into a functional network. This multiscale problem is of prime importance in the development of a functional vasculature. In addition, defective remodelling (either during developmental remodelling or due to a reactivation of the remodelling programme caused by an injury) is associated with a significant number of diseases. In this review, we discuss existing mathematical models of developmental remodelling and explore the important contributions that these models have made to the field of vascular development. These mathematical models are effectively used to investigate and predict vascular development and are able to reproduce experimentally observable results. Moreover, these models provide a useful means of hypothesis generation and can explain the underlying mechanisms driving the observed structural and functional network development. However, developmental vascular remodelling is still a relatively new area in mathematical biology, and many biological questions remain unanswered. In this review, we present the existing modelling paradigms and define the key challenges for the field.

The thalamus is a central brain structure that serves as a relay station for sensory inputs from the periphery to the cortex and regulates cortical arousal. Traditionally, it has been regarded as a passive relay that transmits information between brain regions. However, recent studies have suggested that the thalamus may also play a role in shaping functional connectivity (FC) in a task-based context. Based on this idea, we hypothesized that due to its centrality in the network and its involvement in cortical activation, the thalamus may also contribute to resting-state FC, a key neurological biomarker widely used to characterize brain function in health and disease. To investigate this hypothesis, we constructed ten in-silico brain network models based on neuroimaging data (MEG, MRI, and dwMRI), and simulated them including and excluding the thalamus, and raising the noise into thalamus to represent the afferences related to the reticular activating system (RAS) and the relay of peripheral sensory inputs. We simulated brain activity and compared the resulting FC to their empirical MEG counterparts to evaluate model's performance. Results showed that a parceled version of the thalamus with higher noise, able to drive damped cortical oscillators, enhanced the match to empirical FC. However, with an already active self-oscillatory cortex, no impact on the dynamics was observed when introducing the thalamus. We also demonstrated that the enhanced performance was not related to the structural connectivity of the thalamus, but to its higher noisy inputs. Additionally, we highlighted the relevance of a balanced signal-to-noise ratio in thalamus to allow it to propagate its own dynamics. In conclusion, our study sheds light on the role of the thalamus in shaping brain dynamics and FC in resting-state and allowed us to discuss the general role of criticality in the brain at the mesoscale level.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection kinetics in immunodeficient mice reconstituted with humanized livers from inoculation to steady state is highly dynamic despite the absence of an adaptive immune response. To recapitulate the multiphasic viral kinetic patterns, we developed an agent-based model that includes intracellular virion production cycles reflecting the cyclic nature of each individual virus lifecycle. The model fits the data well predicting an increase in production cycles initially starting with a long production cycle of 1 virion per 20 hours that gradually reaches 1 virion per hour after approximately 3-4 days before virion production increases dramatically to reach to a steady state rate of 4 virions per hour per cell. Together, modeling suggests that it is the cyclic nature of the virus lifecycle combined with an initial slow but increasing rate of HBV production from each cell that plays a role in generating the observed multiphasic HBV kinetic patterns in humanized mice.

Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate epidemiological forecasts are the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), which can be seen as measures of the absolute distance between the forecast distribution and the observation. However, applying these scores directly to predicted and observed incidence counts may not be the most appropriate due to the exponential nature of epidemic processes and the varying magnitudes of observed values across space and time. In this paper, we argue that transforming counts before applying scores such as the CRPS or WIS can effectively mitigate these difficulties and yield epidemiologically meaningful and easily interpretable results. Using the CRPS on log-transformed values as an example, we list three attractive properties: Firstly, it can be interpreted as a probabilistic version of a relative error. Secondly, it reflects how well models predicted the time-varying epidemic growth rate. And lastly, using arguments on variance-stabilizing transformations, it can be shown that under the assumption of a quadratic mean-variance relationship, the logarithmic transformation leads to expected CRPS values which are independent of the order of magnitude of the predicted quantity. Applying a transformation of log(x + 1) to data and forecasts from the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, we find that it changes model rankings regardless of stratification by forecast date, location or target types. Situations in which models missed the beginning of upward swings are more strongly emphasised while failing to predict a downturn following a peak is less severely penalised when scoring transformed forecasts as opposed to untransformed ones. We conclude that appropriate transformations, of which the natural logarithm is only one particularly attractive option, should be considered when assessing the performance of different models in the context of infectious disease incidence.

Inferring dependencies between mixed-type biological traits while accounting for evolutionary relationships between specimens is of great scientific interest yet remains infeasible when trait and specimen counts grow large. The state-of-the-art approach uses a phylogenetic multivariate probit model to accommodate binary and continuous traits via a latent variable framework, and utilizes an efficient bouncy particle sampler (BPS) to tackle the computational bottleneck-integrating many latent variables from a high-dimensional truncated normal distribution. This approach breaks down as the number of specimens grows and fails to reliably characterize conditional dependencies between traits. Here, we propose an inference pipeline for phylogenetic probit models that greatly outperforms BPS. The novelty lies in 1) a combination of the recent Zigzag Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (Zigzag-HMC) with linear-time gradient evaluations and 2) a joint sampling scheme for highly correlated latent variables and correlation matrix elements. In an application exploring HIV-1 evolution from 535 viruses, the inference requires joint sampling from an 11,235-dimensional truncated normal and a 24-dimensional covariance matrix. Our method yields a 5-fold speedup compared to BPS and makes it possible to learn partial correlations between candidate viral mutations and virulence. Computational speedup now enables us to tackle even larger problems: we study the evolution of influenza H1N1 glycosylations on around 900 viruses. For broader applicability, we extend the phylogenetic probit model to incorporate categorical traits, and demonstrate its use to study Aquilegia flower and pollinator co-evolution.

Linear parametric state-space models are a ubiquitous tool for analyzing neural time series data, providing a way to characterize the underlying brain dynamics with much greater statistical efficiency than non-parametric data analysis approaches. However, neural time series data are frequently time-varying, exhibiting rapid changes in dynamics, with transient activity that is often the key feature of interest in the data. Stationary methods can be adapted to time-varying scenarios by employing fixed-duration windows under an assumption of quasi-stationarity. But time-varying dynamics can be explicitly modeled by switching state-space models, i.e., by using a pool of state-space models with different dynamics selected by a probabilistic switching process. Unfortunately, exact solutions for state inference and parameter learning with switching state-space models are intractable. Here we revisit a switching state-space model inference approach first proposed by Ghahramani and Hinton. We provide explicit derivations for solving the inference problem iteratively after applying a variational approximation on the joint posterior of the hidden states and the switching process. We introduce a novel initialization procedure using an efficient leave-one-out strategy to compare among candidate models, which significantly improves performance compared to the existing method that relies on deterministic annealing. We then utilize this state inference solution within a generalized expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate model parameters of the switching process and the linear state-space models with dynamics potentially shared among candidate models. We perform extensive simulations under different settings to benchmark performance against existing switching inference methods and further validate the robustness of our switching inference solution outside the generative switching model class. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our method for sleep spindle detection in real recordings, showing how switching state-space models can be used to detect and extract transient spindles from human sleep electroencephalograms in an unsupervised manner.

DNA methylation takes on critical significance to the regulation of gene expression by affecting the stability of DNA and changing the structure of chromosomes. DNA methylation modification sites should be identified, which lays a solid basis for gaining more insights into their biological functions. Existing machine learning-based methods of predicting DNA methylation have not fully exploited the hidden multidimensional information in DNA gene sequences, such that the prediction accuracy of models is significantly limited. Besides, most models have been built in terms of a single methylation type. To address the above-mentioned issues, a deep learning-based method was proposed in this study for DNA methylation site prediction, termed the MEDCNN model. The MEDCNN model is capable of extracting feature information from gene sequences in three dimensions (i.e., positional information, biological information, and chemical information). Moreover, the proposed method employs a convolutional neural network model with double convolutional layers and double fully connected layers while iteratively updating the gradient descent algorithm using the cross-entropy loss function to increase the prediction accuracy of the model. Besides, the MEDCNN model can predict different types of DNA methylation sites. As indicated by the experimental results,the deep learning method based on coding from multiple dimensions outperformed single coding methods, and the MEDCNN model was highly applicable and outperformed existing models in predicting DNA methylation between different species. As revealed by the above-described findings, the MEDCNN model can be effective in predicting DNA methylation sites.

Influenza affects millions of people every year. It causes a considerable amount of medical visits and hospitalisations as well as hundreds of thousands of deaths. Forecasting influenza prevalence with good accuracy can significantly help public health agencies to timely react to seasonal or novel strain epidemics. Although significant progress has been made, influenza forecasting remains a challenging modelling task. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework that improves over the state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy of influenza-like illness (ILI) rates in the United States. We achieve this by using Web search activity time series in conjunction with historical ILI rates as observations for training neural network (NN) architectures. The proposed models incorporate Bayesian layers to produce associated uncertainty intervals to their forecast estimates, positioning themselves as legitimate complementary solutions to more conventional approaches. The best performing NN, referred to as the iterative recurrent neural network (IRNN) architecture, reduces mean absolute error by 10.3% and improves skill by 17.1% on average in nowcasting and forecasting tasks across 4 consecutive flu seasons.

The study of viral communities has revealed the enormous diversity and impact these biological entities have on various ecosystems. These observations have sparked widespread interest in developing computational strategies that support the comprehensive characterisation of viral communities based on sequencing data. Here we introduce VIRify, a new computational pipeline designed to provide a user-friendly and accurate functional and taxonomic characterisation of viral communities. VIRify identifies viral contigs and prophages from metagenomic assemblies and annotates them using a collection of viral profile hidden Markov models (HMMs). These include our manually-curated profile HMMs, which serve as specific taxonomic markers for a wide range of prokaryotic and eukaryotic viral taxa and are thus used to reliably classify viral contigs. We tested VIRify on assemblies from two microbial mock communities, a large metagenomics study, and a collection of publicly available viral genomic sequences from the human gut. The results showed that VIRify could identify sequences from both prokaryotic and eukaryotic viruses, and provided taxonomic classifications from the genus to the family rank with an average accuracy of 86.6%. In addition, VIRify allowed the detection and taxonomic classification of a range of prokaryotic and eukaryotic viruses present in 243 marine metagenomic assemblies. Finally, the use of VIRify led to a large expansion in the number of taxonomically classified human gut viral sequences and the improvement of outdated and shallow taxonomic classifications. Overall, we demonstrate that VIRify is a novel and powerful resource that offers an enhanced capability to detect a broad range of viral contigs and taxonomically classify them.

The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is an important measure of epidemic transmissibility that directly informs policy decisions and the optimisation of control measures. EpiEstim is a widely used opensource software tool that uses case incidence and the serial interval (SI, time between symptoms in a case and their infector) to estimate Rt in real-time. The incidence and the SI distribution must be provided at the same temporal resolution, which can limit the applicability of EpiEstim and other similar methods, e.g. for contexts where the time window of incidence reporting is longer than the mean SI. In the EpiEstim R package, we implement an expectation-maximisation algorithm to reconstruct daily incidence from temporally aggregated data, from which Rt can then be estimated. We assess the validity of our method using an extensive simulation study and apply it to COVID-19 and influenza data. For all datasets, the influence of intra-weekly variability in reported data was mitigated by using aggregated weekly data. Rt estimated on weekly sliding windows using incidence reconstructed from weekly data was strongly correlated with estimates from the original daily data. The simulation study revealed that Rt was well estimated in all scenarios and regardless of the temporal aggregation of the data. In the presence of weekend effects, Rt estimates from reconstructed data were more successful at recovering the true value of Rt than those obtained from reported daily data. These results show that this novel method allows Rt to be successfully recovered from aggregated data using a simple approach with very few data requirements. Additionally, by removing administrative noise when daily incidence data are reconstructed, the accuracy of Rt estimates can be improved.

Controller motifs are simple biomolecular reaction networks with negative feedback. They can explain how regulatory function is achieved and are often used as building blocks in mathematical models of biological systems. In this paper we perform an extensive investigation into structural identifiability of controller motifs, specifically the so-called basic and antithetic controller motifs. Structural identifiability analysis is a useful tool in the creation and evaluation of mathematical models: it can be used to ensure that model parameters can be determined uniquely and to examine which measurements are necessary for this purpose. This is especially useful for biological models where parameter estimation can be difficult due to limited availability of measureable outputs. Our aim with this work is to investigate how structural identifiability is affected by controller motif complexity and choice of measurements. To increase the number of potential outputs we propose two methods for including flow measurements and show how this affects structural identifiability in combination with, or in the absence of, concentration measurements. In our investigation, we analyze 128 different controller motif structures using a combination of flow and/or concentration measurements, giving a total of 3648 instances. Among all instances, 34% of the measurement combinations provided structural identifiability. Our main findings for the controller motifs include: i) a single measurement is insufficient for structural identifiability, ii) measurements related to different chemical species are necessary for structural identifiability. Applying these findings result in a reduced subset of 1568 instances, where 80% are structurally identifiable, and more complex/interconnected motifs appear easier to structurally identify. The model structures we have investigated are commonly used in models of biological systems, and our results demonstrate how different model structures and measurement combinations affect structural identifiability of controller motifs.

BACKGROUND: The majority of high-throughput single-cell molecular profiling methods quantify RNA expression; however, recent multimodal profiling methods add simultaneous measurement of genomic, proteomic, epigenetic, and/or spatial information on the same cells. The development of new statistical and computational methods in Bioconductor for such data will be facilitated by easy availability of landmark datasets using standard data classes. RESULTS: We collected, processed, and packaged publicly available landmark datasets from important single-cell multimodal protocols, including CITE-Seq, ECCITE-Seq, SCoPE2, scNMT, 10X Multiome, seqFISH, and G&T. We integrate data modalities via the MultiAssayExperiment Bioconductor class, document and re-distribute datasets as the SingleCellMultiModal package in Bioconductor's Cloud-based ExperimentHub. The result is single-command actualization of landmark datasets from seven single-cell multimodal data generation technologies, without need for further data processing or wrangling in order to analyze and develop methods within Bioconductor's ecosystem of hundreds of packages for single-cell and multimodal data. CONCLUSIONS: We provide two examples of integrative analyses that are greatly simplified by SingleCellMultiModal. The package will facilitate development of bioinformatic and statistical methods in Bioconductor to meet the challenges of integrating molecular layers and analyzing phenotypic outputs including cell differentiation, activity, and disease.

Episodic memories are formed after a single exposure to novel stimuli. The plasticity mechanisms underlying such fast learning still remain largely unknown. Recently, it was shown that cells in area CA1 of the hippocampus of mice could form or shift their place fields after a single traversal of a virtual linear track. In-vivo intracellular recordings in CA1 cells revealed that previously silent inputs from CA3 could be switched on when they occurred within a few seconds of a dendritic plateau potential (PP) in the post-synaptic cell, a phenomenon dubbed Behavioral Time-scale Plasticity (BTSP). A recently developed computational framework for BTSP in which the dynamics of synaptic traces related to the pre-synaptic activity and post-synaptic PP are explicitly modelled, can account for experimental findings. Here we show that this model of plasticity can be further simplified to a 1D map which describes changes to the synaptic weights after a single trial. We use a temporally symmetric version of this map to study the storage of a large number of spatial memories in a recurrent network, such as CA3. Specifically, the simplicity of the map allows us to calculate the correlation of the synaptic weight matrix with any given past environment analytically. We show that the calculated memory trace can be used to predict the emergence and stability of bump attractors in a high dimensional neural network model endowed with BTSP.

Nucleic acid probes are valuable tools in biology and chemistry and are indispensable for PCR amplification of DNA, RNA quantification and visualization, and downregulation of gene expression. Recently, triplex-forming oligonucleotides (TFO) have received increased attention due to their improved selectivity and sensitivity in recognizing purine-rich double-stranded RNA regions at physiological pH by incorporating backbone and base modifications. For example, triplex-forming peptide nucleic acid (PNA) oligomers have been used for imaging a structured RNA in cells and inhibiting influenza A replication. Although a handful of programs are available to identify triplex target sites (TTS) in DNA, none are available that find such regions in structured RNAs. Here, we describe TFOFinder, a Python program that facilitates the identification of intramolecular purine-only RNA duplexes that are amenable to forming parallel triple helices (pyrimidine/purine/pyrimidine) and the design of the corresponding TFO(s). We performed genome- and transcriptome-wide analyses of TTS in Drosophila melanogaster and found that only 0.3% (123) of total unique transcripts (35,642) show the potential of forming 12-purine long triplex forming sites that contain at least one guanine. Using minimization algorithms, we predicted the secondary structure(s) of these transcripts, and using TFOFinder, we found that 97 (79%) of the identified 123 transcripts are predicted to fold to form at least one TTS for parallel triple helix formation. The number of transcripts with potential purine TTS increases when the strict search conditions are relaxed by decreasing the length of the probe or by allowing up to two pyrimidine inversions or 1-nucleotide bulge in the target site. These results are encouraging for the use of modified triplex forming probes for live imaging of endogenous structured RNA targets, such as pre-miRNAs, and inhibition of target-specific translation and viral replication.

The ability to acquire abstract knowledge is a hallmark of human intelligence and is believed by many to be one of the core differences between humans and neural network models. Agents can be endowed with an inductive bias towards abstraction through meta-learning, where they are trained on a distribution of tasks that share some abstract structure that can be learned and applied. However, because neural networks are hard to interpret, it can be difficult to tell whether agents have learned the underlying abstraction, or alternatively statistical patterns that are characteristic of that abstraction. In this work, we compare the performance of humans and agents in a meta-reinforcement learning paradigm in which tasks are generated from abstract rules. We define a novel methodology for building "task metamers" that closely match the statistics of the abstract tasks but use a different underlying generative process, and evaluate performance on both abstract and metamer tasks. We find that humans perform better at abstract tasks than metamer tasks whereas common neural network architectures typically perform worse on the abstract tasks than the matched metamers. This work provides a foundation for characterizing differences between humans and machine learning that can be used in future work towards developing machines with more human-like behavior.

In microorganisms, different from primary metabolism for cellular growth, secondary metabolism is for ecological interactions and stress responses and an important source of natural products widely used in various areas such as pharmaceutics and food additives. With advancements of sequencing technologies and bioinformatics tools, a large number of biosynthetic gene clusters of secondary metabolites have been discovered from microbial genomes. However, due to challenges from the difficulty of genome-scale pathway reconstruction and the limitation of conventional flux balance analysis (FBA) on secondary metabolism, the quantitative modeling of secondary metabolism is poorly established, in contrast to that of primary metabolism. This review first discusses current efforts on the reconstruction of secondary metabolic pathways in genome-scale metabolic models (GSMMs), as well as related FBA-based modeling techniques. Additionally, potential extensions of FBA are suggested to improve the prediction accuracy of secondary metabolite production. As this review posits, biosynthetic pathway reconstruction for various secondary metabolites will become automated and a modeling framework capturing secondary metabolism onset will enhance the predictive power. Expectedly, an improved FBA-based modeling workflow will facilitate quantitative study of secondary metabolism and in silico design of engineering strategies for natural product production.

Immunotherapeutic cytokines can activate immune cells against cancers and chronic infections. N-803 is an IL-15 superagonist that expands CD8+ T cells and increases their cytotoxicity. N-803 also temporarily reduced viral load in a limited subset of non-human primates infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), a model of HIV. However, viral suppression has not been observed in all SIV cohorts and may depend on pre-treatment viral load and the corresponding effects on CD8+ T cells. Starting from an existing mechanistic mathematical model of N-803 immunotherapy of SIV, we develop a model that includes activation of SIV-specific and non-SIV-specific CD8+ T cells by antigen, inflammation, and N-803. Also included is a regulatory counter-response that inhibits CD8+ T cell proliferation and function, representing the effects of immune checkpoint molecules and immunosuppressive cells. We simultaneously calibrate the model to two separate SIV cohorts. The first cohort had low viral loads prior to treatment (≈3-4 log viral RNA copy equivalents (CEQ)/mL), and N-803 treatment transiently suppressed viral load. The second had higher pre-treatment viral loads (≈5-7 log CEQ/mL) and saw no consistent virus suppression with N-803. The mathematical model can replicate the viral and CD8+ T cell dynamics of both cohorts based on different pre-treatment viral loads and different levels of regulatory inhibition of CD8+ T cells due to those viral loads (i.e. initial conditions of model). Our predictions are validated by additional data from these and other SIV cohorts. While both cohorts had high numbers of activated SIV-specific CD8+ T cells in simulations, viral suppression was precluded in the high viral load cohort due to elevated inhibition of cytotoxicity. Thus, we mathematically demonstrate how the pre-treatment viral load can influence immunotherapeutic efficacy, highlighting the in vivo conditions and combination therapies that could maximize efficacy and improve treatment outcomes.

Genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) regulate the flow of genetic information from the genome to expressed messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and thus are critical to controlling the phenotypic characteristics of cells. Numerous methods exist for profiling mRNA transcript levels and identifying protein-DNA binding interactions at the genome-wide scale. These enable researchers to determine the structure and output of transcriptional regulatory networks, but uncovering the complete structure and regulatory logic of GRNs remains a challenge. The field of GRN inference aims to meet this challenge using computational modeling to derive the structure and logic of GRNs from experimental data and to encode this knowledge in Boolean networks, Bayesian networks, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, or other modeling frameworks. However, most existing models do not incorporate dynamic transcriptional data since it has historically been less widely available in comparison to "static" transcriptional data. We report the development of an evolutionary algorithm-based ODE modeling approach (named EA) that integrates kinetic transcription data and the theory of attractor matching to infer GRN architecture and regulatory logic. Our method outperformed six leading GRN inference methods, none of which incorporate kinetic transcriptional data, in predicting regulatory connections among TFs when applied to a small-scale engineered synthetic GRN in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Moreover, we demonstrate the potential of our method to predict unknown transcriptional profiles that would be produced upon genetic perturbation of the GRN governing a two-state cellular phenotypic switch in Candida albicans. We established an iterative refinement strategy to facilitate candidate selection for experimentation; the experimental results in turn provide validation or improvement for the model. In this way, our GRN inference approach can expedite the development of a sophisticated mathematical model that can accurately describe the structure and dynamics of the in vivo GRN.

Antibodies and humoral memory are key components of the adaptive immune system. We consider and computationally model mechanisms by which humoral memory present at baseline might increase rather than decrease infection load; we refer to this effect as EI-HM (enhancement of infection by humoral memory). We first consider antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) in which antibody enhances the growth of the pathogen, typically a virus, and typically at intermediate 'Goldilocks' levels of antibody. Our ADE model reproduces ADE in vitro and enhancement of infection in vivo from passive antibody transfer. But notably the simplest implementation of our ADE model never results in EI-HM. Adding complexity, by making the cross-reactive antibody much less neutralizing than the de novo generated antibody or by including a sufficiently strong non-antibody immune response, allows for ADE-mediated EI-HM. We next consider the possibility that cross-reactive memory causes EI-HM by crowding out a possibly superior de novo immune response. We show that, even without ADE, EI-HM can occur when the cross-reactive response is both less potent and 'directly' (i.e. independently of infection load) suppressive with regard to the de novo response. In this case adding a non-antibody immune response to our computational model greatly reduces or completely eliminates EI-HM, which suggests that 'crowding out' is unlikely to cause substantial EI-HM. Hence, our results provide examples in which simple models give qualitatively opposite results compared to models with plausible complexity. Our results may be helpful in interpreting and reconciling disparate experimental findings, especially from dengue, and for vaccination.

Accurate prediction of cancer drug response (CDR) is a longstanding challenge in modern oncology that underpins personalized treatment. Current computational methods implement CDR prediction by modeling responses between entire drugs and cell lines, without the consideration that response outcomes may primarily attribute to a few finer-level 'subcomponents', such as privileged substructures of the drug or gene signatures of the cancer cell, thus producing predictions that are hard to explain. Herein, we present SubCDR, a subcomponent-guided deep learning method for interpretable CDR prediction, to recognize the most relevant subcomponents driving response outcomes. Technically, SubCDR is built upon a line of deep neural networks that enables a set of functional subcomponents to be extracted from each drug and cell line profile, and breaks the CDR prediction down to identifying pairwise interactions between subcomponents. Such a subcomponent interaction form can offer a traceable path to explicitly indicate which subcomponents contribute more to the response outcome. We verify the superiority of SubCDR over state-of-the-art CDR prediction methods through extensive computational experiments on the GDSC dataset. Crucially, we found many predicted cases that demonstrate the strength of SubCDR in finding the key subcomponents driving responses and exploiting these subcomponents to discover new therapeutic drugs. These results suggest that SubCDR will be highly useful for biomedical researchers, particularly in anti-cancer drug design.

When bacterial species with the same resource preferences share the same growth environment, it is commonly believed that direct competition will arise. A large variety of competition and more general 'interaction' models have been formulated, but what is currently lacking are models that link monoculture growth kinetics and community growth under inclusion of emerging biological interactions, such as metabolite cross-feeding. In order to understand and mathematically describe the nature of potential cross-feeding interactions, we design experiments where two bacterial species Pseudomonas putida and Pseudomonas veronii grow in liquid medium either in mono- or as co-culture in a resource-limited environment. We measure population growth under single substrate competition or with double species-specific substrates (substrate 'indifference'), and starting from varying cell ratios of either species. Using experimental data as input, we first consider a mean-field model of resource-based competition, which captures well the empirically observed growth rates for monocultures, but fails to correctly predict growth rates in co-culture mixtures, in particular for skewed starting species ratios. Based on this, we extend the model by cross-feeding interactions where the consumption of substrate by one consumer produces metabolites that in turn are resources for the other consumer, thus leading to positive feedback in the species system. Two different cross-feeding options were considered, which either lead to constant metabolite cross-feeding, or to a regulated form, where metabolite utilization is activated with rates according to either a threshold or a Hill function, dependent on metabolite concentration. Both mathematical proof and experimental data indicate regulated cross-feeding to be the preferred model to constant metabolite utilization, with best co-culture growth predictions in case of high Hill coefficients, close to binary (on/off) activation states. This suggests that species use the appearing metabolite concentrations only when they are becoming high enough; possibly as a consequence of their lower energetic content than the primary substrate. Metabolite sharing was particularly relevant at unbalanced starting cell ratios, causing the minority partner to proliferate more than expected from the competitive substrate because of metabolite release from the majority partner. This effect thus likely quells immediate substrate competition and may be important in natural communities with typical very skewed relative taxa abundances and slower-growing taxa. In conclusion, the regulated bacterial interaction network correctly describes species substrate growth reactions in mixtures with few kinetic parameters that can be obtained from monoculture growth experiments.

The accurate estimation of cell surface receptor abundance for single cell transcriptomics data is important for the tasks of cell type and phenotype categorization and cell-cell interaction quantification. We previously developed an unsupervised receptor abundance estimation technique named SPECK (Surface Protein abundance Estimation using CKmeans-based clustered thresholding) to address the challenges associated with accurate abundance estimation. In that paper, we concluded that SPECK results in improved concordance with Cellular Indexing of Transcriptomes and Epitopes by Sequencing (CITE-seq) data relative to comparative unsupervised abundance estimation techniques using only single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. In this paper, we outline a new supervised receptor abundance estimation method called STREAK (gene Set Testing-based Receptor abundance Estimation using Adjusted distances and cKmeans thresholding) that leverages associations learned from joint scRNA-seq/CITE-seq training data and a thresholded gene set scoring mechanism to estimate receptor abundance for scRNA-seq target data. We evaluate STREAK relative to both unsupervised and supervised receptor abundance estimation techniques using two evaluation approaches on six joint scRNA-seq/CITE-seq datasets that represent four human and mouse tissue types. We conclude that STREAK outperforms other abundance estimation strategies and provides a more biologically interpretable and transparent statistical model.

Bayesian Active Learning (BAL) is an efficient framework for learning the parameters of a model, in which input stimuli are selected to maximize the mutual information between the observations and the unknown parameters. However, the applicability of BAL to experiments is limited as it requires performing high-dimensional integrations and optimizations in real time. Current methods are either too time consuming, or only applicable to specific models. Here, we propose an Efficient Sampling-Based Bayesian Active Learning (ESB-BAL) framework, which is efficient enough to be used in real-time biological experiments. We apply our method to the problem of estimating the parameters of a chemical synapse from the postsynaptic responses to evoked presynaptic action potentials. Using synthetic data and synaptic whole-cell patch-clamp recordings, we show that our method can improve the precision of model-based inferences, thereby paving the way towards more systematic and efficient experimental designs in physiology.

Predictive coding is an influential model of cortical neural activity. It proposes that perceptual beliefs are furnished by sequentially minimising "prediction errors"-the differences between predicted and observed data. Implicit in this proposal is the idea that successful perception requires multiple cycles of neural activity. This is at odds with evidence that several aspects of visual perception-including complex forms of object recognition-arise from an initial "feedforward sweep" that occurs on fast timescales which preclude substantial recurrent activity. Here, we propose that the feedforward sweep can be understood as performing amortized inference (applying a learned function that maps directly from data to beliefs) and recurrent processing can be understood as performing iterative inference (sequentially updating neural activity in order to improve the accuracy of beliefs). We propose a hybrid predictive coding network that combines both iterative and amortized inference in a principled manner by describing both in terms of a dual optimization of a single objective function. We show that the resulting scheme can be implemented in a biologically plausible neural architecture that approximates Bayesian inference utilising local Hebbian update rules. We demonstrate that our hybrid predictive coding model combines the benefits of both amortized and iterative inference-obtaining rapid and computationally cheap perceptual inference for familiar data while maintaining the context-sensitivity, precision, and sample efficiency of iterative inference schemes. Moreover, we show how our model is inherently sensitive to its uncertainty and adaptively balances iterative and amortized inference to obtain accurate beliefs using minimum computational expense. Hybrid predictive coding offers a new perspective on the functional relevance of the feedforward and recurrent activity observed during visual perception and offers novel insights into distinct aspects of visual phenomenology.

A major advance in understanding learning behavior stems from experiments showing that reward learning requires dopamine inputs to striatal neurons and arises from synaptic plasticity of cortico-striatal synapses. Numerous reinforcement learning models mimic this dopamine-dependent synaptic plasticity by using the reward prediction error, which resembles dopamine neuron firing, to learn the best action in response to a set of cues. Though these models can explain many facets of behavior, reproducing some types of goal-directed behavior, such as renewal and reversal, require additional model components. Here we present a reinforcement learning model, TD2Q, which better corresponds to the basal ganglia with two Q matrices, one representing direct pathway neurons (G) and another representing indirect pathway neurons (N). Unlike previous two-Q architectures, a novel and critical aspect of TD2Q is to update the G and N matrices utilizing the temporal difference reward prediction error. A best action is selected for N and G using a softmax with a reward-dependent adaptive exploration parameter, and then differences are resolved using a second selection step applied to the two action probabilities. The model is tested on a range of multi-step tasks including extinction, renewal, discrimination; switching reward probability learning; and sequence learning. Simulations show that TD2Q produces behaviors similar to rodents in choice and sequence learning tasks, and that use of the temporal difference reward prediction error is required to learn multi-step tasks. Blocking the update rule on the N matrix blocks discrimination learning, as observed experimentally. Performance in the sequence learning task is dramatically improved with two matrices. These results suggest that including additional aspects of basal ganglia physiology can improve the performance of reinforcement learning models, better reproduce animal behaviors, and provide insight as to the role of direct- and indirect-pathway striatal neurons.

Dimensionality reduction is standard practice for filtering noise and identifying relevant features in large-scale data analyses. In biology, single-cell genomics studies typically begin with reduction to 2 or 3 dimensions to produce "all-in-one" visuals of the data that are amenable to the human eye, and these are subsequently used for qualitative and quantitative exploratory analysis. However, there is little theoretical support for this practice, and we show that extreme dimension reduction, from hundreds or thousands of dimensions to 2, inevitably induces significant distortion of high-dimensional datasets. We therefore examine the practical implications of low-dimensional embedding of single-cell data and find that extensive distortions and inconsistent practices make such embeddings counter-productive for exploratory, biological analyses. In lieu of this, we discuss alternative approaches for conducting targeted embedding and feature exploration to enable hypothesis-driven biological discovery.

Novel biomarkers are key to addressing the ongoing pandemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus. While new technologies have improved the potential of identifying such biomarkers, at the same time there is an increasing need for informed prioritization to ensure efficient downstream verification. We have built BALDR, an automated pipeline for biomarker comparison and prioritization in the context of diabetes. BALDR includes protein, gene, and disease data from major public repositories, text-mining data, and human and mouse experimental data from the IMI2 RHAPSODY consortium. These data are provided as easy-to-read figures and tables enabling direct comparison of up to 20 biomarker candidates for diabetes through the public website https://baldr.cpr.ku.dk.

The deluge of genomic data raises various challenges for computational protein annotation. The definition of superfamilies, based on conserved folds, or of families, showing more recent homology signatures, allow a first categorization of the sequence space. However, for precise functional annotation or the identification of the unexplored parts within a family, a division into subfamilies is essential. As curators of an expert database, the Carbohydrate Active Enzymes database (CAZy), we began, more than 15 years ago, to manually define subfamilies based on phylogeny reconstruction. However, facing the increasing amount of sequence and functional data, we required more scalable and reproducible methods. The recently popularized sequence similarity networks (SSNs), allows to cope with very large families and computation of many subfamily schemes. Still, the choice of the optimal SSN subfamily scheme only relies on expert knowledge so far, without any data-driven guidance from within the network. In this study, we therefore decided to investigate several network properties to determine a criterion which can be used by curators to evaluate the quality of subfamily assignments. The performance of the closeness centrality criterion, a network property to indicate the connectedness within the network, shows high similarity to the decisions of expert curators from eight distinct protein families. Closeness centrality also suggests that in some cases multiple levels of subfamilies could be possible, depending on the granularity of the research question, while it indicates when no subfamily emerged in some family evolution. We finally used closeness centrality to create subfamilies in four families of the CAZy database, providing a finer functional annotation and highlighting subfamilies without biochemically characterized members for potential future discoveries.

Cefquinome is widely used to treat respiratory tract diseases of swine. While extra-label dosages of cefquinome could improve clinical efficacy, they might lead to excessively high residues in animal-derived food. In this study, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was calibrated based on the published data and a microdialysis experiment to assess the dosage efficiency and food safety. For the microdialysis experiment, in vitro/in vivo relative recovery and concentration-time curves of cefquinome in the lung interstitium were investigated. This PBPK model is available to predict the drug concentrations in the muscle, kidney, liver, plasma, and lung interstitial fluid. Concentration-time curves of 1000 virtual animals in different tissues were simulated by applying sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses. By integrating pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target parameters, cefquinome delivered at 3-5 mg/kg twice daily is advised for the effective control of respiratory tract infections of nursery pig, which the bodyweight is around 25 kg. Based on the predicted cefquinome concentrations in edible tissues, the withdrawal interval is 2 and 3 days for label and the extra-label doses, respectively. This study provides a useful tool to optimize the dosage regimen of cefquinome against respiratory tract infections and predicts the concentration of cefquinome residues in edible tissues. This information would be helpful to improve the food safety and guide rational drug usage.

Proper characterization of cancer cell states within the tumor microenvironment is a key to accurately identifying matching experimental models and the development of precision therapies. To reconstruct this information from bulk RNA-seq profiles, we developed the XDec Simplex Mapping (XDec-SM) reference-optional deconvolution method that maps tumors and the states of constituent cells onto a biologically interpretable low-dimensional space. The method identifies gene sets informative for deconvolution from relevant single-cell profiling data when such profiles are available. When applied to breast tumors in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), XDec-SM infers the identity of constituent cell types and their proportions. XDec-SM also infers cancer cells states within individual tumors that associate with DNA methylation patterns, driver somatic mutations, pathway activation and metabolic coupling between stromal and breast cancer cells. By projecting tumors, cancer cell lines, and PDX models onto the same map, we identify in vitro and in vivo models with matching cancer cell states. Map position is also predictive of therapy response, thus opening the prospects for precision therapy informed by experiments in model systems matched to tumors in vivo by cancer cell state.

Organoids offer a powerful model to study cellular self-organisation, the growth of specific tissue morphologies in-vitro, and to assess potential medical therapies. However, the intrinsic mechanisms of these systems are not entirely understood yet, which can result in variability of organoids due to differences in culture conditions and basement membrane extracts used. Improving the standardisation of organoid cultures is essential for their implementation in clinical protocols. Developing tools to assess and predict the behaviour of these systems may produce a more robust and standardised biological model to perform accurate clinical studies. Here, we developed an algorithm to automate crypt-like structure counting on intestinal organoids in both in-vitro and in-silico images. In addition, we modified an existing two-dimensional agent-based mathematical model of intestinal organoids to better describe the system physiology, and evaluated its ability to replicate budding structures compared to new experimental data we generated. The crypt-counting algorithm proved useful in approximating the average number of budding structures found in our in-vitro intestinal organoid culture images on days 3 and 7 after seeding. Our changes to the in-silico model maintain the potential to produce simulations that replicate the number of budding structures found on days 5 and 7 of in-vitro data. The present study aims to aid in quantifying key morphological structures and provide a method to compare both in-vitro and in-silico experiments. Our results could be extended later to 3D in-silico models.

Majority of the theory on cell polarization and the understanding of cellular sensing and responsiveness to localized chemical cues has been based on the idea that non-polarized and polarized cell states can be represented by stable asymptotic switching between them. The existing model classes that describe the dynamics of signaling networks underlying polarization are formulated within the framework of autonomous systems. However these models do not simultaneously capture both, robust maintenance of polarized state longer than the signal duration, and retained responsiveness to signals with complex spatial-temporal distribution. Based on recent experimental evidence for criticality organization of biochemical networks, we challenge the current concepts and demonstrate that non-asymptotic signaling dynamics arising at criticality uniquely ensures optimal responsiveness to changing chemoattractant fields. We provide a framework to characterize non-asymptotic dynamics of system's state trajectories through a non-autonomous treatment of the system, further emphasizing the importance of (long) transient dynamics, as well as the necessity to change the mathematical formalism when describing biological systems that operate in changing environments.

Harnessing the power of microbial consortia is integral to a diverse range of sectors, from healthcare to biotechnology to environmental remediation. To fully realize this potential, it is critical to understand the mechanisms behind the interactions that structure microbial consortia and determine their functions. Constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) approaches, employing genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs), have emerged as the state-of-the-art tool to simulate the behavior of microbial communities from their constituent genomes. In the last decade, many tools have been developed that use COBRA approaches to simulate multi-species consortia, under either steady-state, dynamic, or spatiotemporally varying scenarios. Yet, these tools have not been systematically evaluated regarding their software quality, most suitable application, and predictive power. Hence, it is uncertain which tools users should apply to their system and what are the most urgent directions that developers should take in the future to improve existing capacities. This study conducted a systematic evaluation of COBRA-based tools for microbial communities using datasets from two-member communities as test cases. First, we performed a qualitative assessment in which we evaluated 24 published tools based on a list of FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) features essential for software quality. Next, we quantitatively tested the predictions in a subset of 14 of these tools against experimental data from three different case studies: a) syngas fermentation by C. autoethanogenum and C. kluyveri for the static tools, b) glucose/xylose fermentation with engineered E. coli and S. cerevisiae for the dynamic tools, and c) a Petri dish of E. coli and S. enterica for tools incorporating spatiotemporal variation. Our results show varying performance levels of the best qualitatively assessed tools when examining the different categories of tools. The differences in the mathematical formulation of the approaches and their relation to the results were also discussed. Ultimately, we provide recommendations for refining future GEM microbial modeling tools.

Although children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have high survival rates, approximately 15-20% of patients relapse. Risk of relapse is routinely estimated at diagnosis by biological factors, including flow cytometry data. This high-dimensional data is typically manually assessed by projecting it onto a subset of biomarkers. Cell density and "empty spaces" in 2D projections of the data, i.e. regions devoid of cells, are then used for qualitative assessment. Here, we use topological data analysis (TDA), which quantifies shapes, including empty spaces, in data, to analyse pre-treatment ALL datasets with known patient outcomes. We combine these fully unsupervised analyses with Machine Learning (ML) to identify significant shape characteristics and demonstrate that they accurately predict risk of relapse, particularly for patients previously classified as 'low risk'. We independently confirm the predictive power of CD10, CD20, CD38, and CD45 as biomarkers for ALL diagnosis. Based on our analyses, we propose three increasingly detailed prognostic pipelines for analysing flow cytometry data from ALL patients depending on technical and technological availability: 1. Visual inspection of specific biological features in biparametric projections of the data; 2. Computation of quantitative topological descriptors of such projections; 3. A combined analysis, using TDA and ML, in the four-parameter space defined by CD10, CD20, CD38 and CD45. Our analyses readily extend to other haematological malignancies.

The use of an antibiotic may lead to the emergence and spread of bacterial strains resistant to this antibiotic. Experimental and theoretical studies have investigated the drug dose that minimizes the risk of resistance evolution over the course of treatment of an individual, showing that the optimal dose will either be the highest or the lowest drug concentration possible to administer; however, no analytical results exist that help decide between these two extremes. To address this gap, we develop a stochastic mathematical model of bacterial dynamics under antibiotic treatment. We explore various scenarios of density regulation (bacterial density affects cell birth or death rates), and antibiotic modes of action (biostatic or biocidal). We derive analytical results for the survival probability of the resistant subpopulation until the end of treatment, the size of the resistant subpopulation at the end of treatment, the carriage time of the resistant subpopulation until it is replaced by a sensitive one after treatment, and we verify these results with stochastic simulations. We find that the scenario of density regulation and the drug mode of action are important determinants of the survival of a resistant subpopulation. Resistant cells survive best when bacterial competition reduces cell birth and under biocidal antibiotics. Compared to an analogous deterministic model, the population size reached by the resistant type is larger and carriage time is slightly reduced by stochastic loss of resistant cells. Moreover, we obtain an analytical prediction of the antibiotic concentration that maximizes the survival of resistant cells, which may help to decide which drug dosage (not) to administer. Our results are amenable to experimental tests and help link the within and between host scales in epidemiological models.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of surgical pain is a common reason for opioid prescriptions. Being able to predict which patients are at risk for opioid abuse, dependence, and overdose (opioid-related adverse outcomes [OR-AE]) could help physicians make safer prescription decisions. We aimed to develop a machine-learning algorithm to predict the risk of OR-AE following surgery using Medicaid data with external validation across states. METHODS: Five machine learning models were developed and validated across seven US states (90-10 data split). The model output was the risk of OR-AE 6-months following surgery. The models were evaluated using standard metrics and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used for model comparison. We assessed calibration for the top performing model and generated bootstrap estimations for standard deviations. Decision curves were generated for the top-performing model and logistic regression. RESULTS: We evaluated 96,974 surgical patients aged 15 and 64. During the 6-month period following surgery, 10,464 (10.8%) patients had an OR-AE. Outcome rates were significantly higher for patients with depression (17.5%), diabetes (13.1%) or obesity (11.1%). The random forest model achieved the best predictive performance (AUC: 0.877; F1-score: 0.57; recall: 0.69; precision:0.48). An opioid disorder diagnosis prior to surgery was the most important feature for the model, which was well calibrated and had good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning models to predict risk of OR-AE following surgery performed well in external validation. This work could be used to assist pain management following surgery for Medicaid beneficiaries and supports a precision medicine approach to opioid prescribing.

serosim is an open-source R package designed to aid inference from serological studies, by simulating data arising from user-specified vaccine and antibody kinetics processes using a random effects model. Serological data are used to assess population immunity by directly measuring individuals' antibody titers. They uncover locations and/or populations which are susceptible and provide evidence of past infection or vaccination to help inform public health measures and surveillance. Both serological data and new analytical techniques used to interpret them are increasingly widespread. This creates a need for tools to simulate serological studies and the processes underlying observed titer values, as this will enable researchers to identify best practices for serological study design, and provide a standardized framework to evaluate the performance of different inference methods. serosim allows users to specify and adjust model inputs representing underlying processes responsible for generating the observed titer values like time-varying patterns of infection and vaccination, population demography, immunity and antibody kinetics, and serological sampling design in order to best represent the population and disease system(s) of interest. This package will be useful for planning sampling design of future serological studies, understanding determinants of observed serological data, and validating the accuracy and power of new statistical methods.

Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks. However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at various stages of data gathering and reporting. As a result, recent values are biased downward, which obscures current trends. Statistical nowcasting techniques can be employed to correct these biases, allowing for accurate characterization of recent developments and thus enhancing situational awareness. In this paper, we present a preregistered real-time assessment of eight nowcasting approaches, applied by independent research teams to German 7-day hospitalization incidences during the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator played an important role in the management of the outbreak in Germany and was linked to levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions via certain thresholds. Due to its definition, in which hospitalization counts are aggregated by the date of case report rather than admission, German hospitalization incidences are particularly affected by delays and can take several weeks or months to fully stabilize. For this study, all methods were applied from 22 November 2021 to 29 April 2022, with probabilistic nowcasts produced each day for the current and 28 preceding days. Nowcasts at the national, state, and age-group levels were collected in the form of quantiles in a public repository and displayed in a dashboard. Moreover, a mean and a median ensemble nowcast were generated. We find that overall, the compared methods were able to remove a large part of the biases introduced by delays. Most participating teams underestimated the importance of very long delays, though, resulting in nowcasts with a slight downward bias. The accompanying prediction intervals were also too narrow for almost all methods. Averaged over all nowcast horizons, the best performance was achieved by a model using case incidences as a covariate and taking into account longer delays than the other approaches. For the most recent days, which are often considered the most relevant in practice, a mean ensemble of the submitted nowcasts performed best. We conclude by providing some lessons learned on the definition of nowcasting targets and practical challenges.

The sequence contexts of genomic variants play important roles in understanding biological significances of variants and potential sequencing related variant calling issues. However, methods for assessing the diverse sequence contexts of genomic variants such as tandem repeats and unambiguous annotations have been limited. Herein, we describe the Variant Sequence Context Annotation Tool (VarSCAT) for annotating the sequence contexts of genomic variants, including breakpoint ambiguities, flanking bases of variants, wildtype/mutated DNA sequences, variant nomenclatures, distances between adjacent variants, tandem repeat regions, and custom annotation with user customizable options. Our analyses demonstrate that VarSCAT is more versatile and customizable than the currently available methods or strategies for annotating variants in short tandem repeat (STR) regions or insertions and deletions (indels) with breakpoint ambiguity. Variant sequence context annotations of high-confidence human variant sets with VarSCAT revealed that more than 75% of all human individual germline and clinically relevant indels have breakpoint ambiguities. Moreover, we illustrate that more than 80% of human individual germline small variants in STR regions are indels and that the sizes of these indels correlated with STR motif sizes. VarSCAT is available from https://github.com/elolab/VarSCAT.

Adaptive rewiring provides a basic principle of self-organizing connectivity in evolving neural network topology. By selectively adding connections to regions with intense signal flow and deleting underutilized connections, adaptive rewiring generates optimized brain-like, i.e. modular, small-world, and rich club connectivity structures. Besides topology, neural self-organization also follows spatial optimization principles, such as minimizing the neural wiring distance and topographic alignment of neural pathways. We simulated the interplay of these spatial principles and adaptive rewiring in evolving neural networks with weighted and directed connections. The neural traffic flow within the network is represented by the equivalent of diffusion dynamics for directed edges: consensus and advection. We observe a constructive synergy between adaptive and spatial rewiring, which contributes to network connectedness. In particular, wiring distance minimization facilitates adaptive rewiring in creating convergent-divergent units. These units support the flow of neural information and enable context-sensitive information processing in the sensory cortex and elsewhere. Convergent-divergent units consist of convergent hub nodes, which collect inputs from pools of nodes and project these signals via a densely interconnected set of intermediate nodes onto divergent hub nodes, which broadcast their output back to the network. Convergent-divergent units vary in the degree to which their intermediate nodes are isolated from the rest of the network. This degree, and hence the context-sensitivity of the network's processing style, is parametrically determined in the evolving network model by the relative prominence of spatial versus adaptive rewiring.

Thinning is a sub-sampling technique to reduce the memory footprint of Markov chain Monte Carlo. Despite being commonly used, thinning is rarely considered efficient. For sampling constraint-based models, a highly relevant use-case in systems biology, we here demonstrate that thinning boosts computational and, thereby, sampling efficiencies of the widely used Coordinate Hit-and-Run with Rounding (CHRR) algorithm. By benchmarking CHRR with thinning with simplices and genome-scale metabolic networks of up to thousands of dimensions, we find a substantial increase in computational efficiency compared to unthinned CHRR, in our examples by orders of magnitude, as measured by the effective sample size per time (ESS/t), with performance gains growing with polytope (effective network) dimension. Using a set of benchmark models we derive a ready-to-apply guideline for tuning thinning to efficient and effective use of compute resources without requiring additional coding effort. Our guideline is validated using three (out-of-sample) large-scale networks and we show that it allows sampling convex polytopes uniformly to convergence in a fraction of time, thereby unlocking the rigorous investigation of hitherto intractable models. The derivation of our guideline is explained in detail, allowing future researchers to update it as needed as new model classes and more training data becomes available. CHRR with deliberate utilization of thinning thereby paves the way to keep pace with progressing model sizes derived with the constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) tool set. Sampling and evaluation pipelines are available at https://jugit.fz-juelich.de/IBG-1/ModSim/fluxomics/chrrt.

Studies on population coding implicitly assume that spikes from the presynaptic cells arrive simultaneously at the integrating neuron. In natural neuronal populations, this is usually not the case-neuronal signaling takes time and populations cover a certain space. The spread of spike arrival times depends on population size, cell density and axonal conduction velocity. Here we analyze the consequences of population size and axonal conduction delays on the stimulus encoding performance in the electrosensory system of the electric fish Apteronotus leptorhynchus. We experimentally locate p-type electroreceptor afferents along the rostro-caudal body axis and relate locations to neurophysiological response properties. In an information-theoretical approach we analyze the coding performance in homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. As expected, the amount of information increases with population size and, on average, heterogeneous populations encode better than the average same-size homogeneous population, if conduction delays are compensated for. The spread of neuronal conduction delays within a receptive field strongly degrades encoding of high-frequency stimulus components. Receptive field sizes typically found in the electrosensory lateral line lobe of A. leptorhynchus appear to be a good compromise between the spread of conduction delays and encoding performance. The limitations imposed by finite axonal conduction velocity are relevant for any converging network as is shown by model populations of LIF neurons. The bandwidth of natural stimuli and the maximum meaningful population sizes are constrained by conduction delays and may thus impact the optimal design of nervous systems.

Human airway epithelium (HAE) represents the primary site of viral infection for SARS-CoV-2. Comprising different cell populations, a lot of research has been aimed at deciphering the major cell types and infection dynamics that determine disease progression and severity. However, the cell type-specific replication kinetics, as well as the contribution of cellular composition of the respiratory epithelium to infection and pathology are still not fully understood. Although experimental advances, including Air-liquid interface (ALI) cultures of reconstituted pseudostratified HAE, as well as lung organoid systems, allow the observation of infection dynamics under physiological conditions in unprecedented level of detail, disentangling and quantifying the contribution of individual processes and cells to these dynamics remains challenging. Here, we present how a combination of experimental data and mathematical modelling can be used to infer and address the influence of cell type specific infectivity and tissue composition on SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics. Using a stepwise approach that integrates various experimental data on HAE culture systems with regard to tissue differentiation and infection dynamics, we develop an individual cell-based model that enables investigation of infection and regeneration dynamics within pseudostratified HAE. In addition, we present a novel method to quantify tissue integrity based on image data related to the standard measures of transepithelial electrical resistance measurements. Our analysis provides a first aim of quantitatively assessing cell type specific infection kinetics and shows how tissue composition and changes in regeneration capacity, as e.g. in smokers, can influence disease progression and pathology. Furthermore, we identified key measurements that still need to be assessed in order to improve inference of cell type specific infection kinetics and disease progression. Our approach provides a method that, in combination with additional experimental data, can be used to disentangle the complex dynamics of viral infection and immunity within human airway epithelial culture systems.

The vaginal microbiome (VMB) is a complex microbial community that is closely tied to reproductive health. Optimal VMB communities have compositions that are commonly defined by the dominance of certain Lactobacillus spp. and can remain stable over time or transition to non-optimal states dominated by anaerobic bacteria and associated with bacterial vaginosis (BV). The ability to remain stable or undergo transitions suggests a system with either single (mono-stable) or multiple (multi-stable) equilibrium states, though factors that contribute to stability have been difficult to determine due to heterogeneity in microbial growth characteristics and inter-species interactions. Here, we use a computational model to determine whether differences in microbial growth and interaction parameters could alter equilibrium state accessibility and account for variability in community composition after menses and antibiotic therapies. Using a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis that captures parameter sets sampled from a physiologically relevant range, model simulations predicted that 79.7% of microbial communities were mono-stable (gravitate to one composition type) and 20.3% were predicted to be multi-stable (can gravitate to more than one composition type, given external perturbations), which was not significantly different from observations in two clinical cohorts (HMP cohort, 75.2% and 24.8%; Gajer cohort, 78.1% and 21.9%, respectively). The model identified key microbial parameters that governed equilibrium state accessibility, such as the importance of non-optimal anaerobic bacteria interactions with Lactobacillus spp., which is largely understudied. Model predictions for composition changes after menses and antibiotics were not significantly different from those observed in clinical cohorts. Lastly, simulations were performed to illustrate how this quantitative framework can be used to gain insight into the development of new combinatorial therapies involving altered prebiotic and antibiotic dosing strategies. Altogether, dynamical models could guide development of more precise therapeutic strategies to manage BV.

When deciding between options that do or do not lead to future choices, humans often choose to choose. We studied choice seeking by asking subjects to first decide between a choice opportunity or performing a computer-selected action, after which they either chose freely or performed the forced action. Subjects preferred choice when these options were equally rewarded, even deterministically, and traded extrinsic rewards for opportunities to choose. We explained individual variability in choice seeking using reinforcement learning models incorporating risk sensitivity and overvaluation of rewards obtained through choice. Model fits revealed that 28% of subjects were sensitive to the worst possible outcome associated with free choice, and this pessimism reduced their choice preference with increasing risk. Moreover, outcome overvaluation was necessary to explain patterns of individual choice preference across levels of risk. We also manipulated the degree to which subjects controlled stimulus outcomes. We found that degrading coherence between their actions and stimulus outcomes diminished choice preference following forced actions, although willingness to repeat selection of choice opportunities remained high. When subjects chose freely during these repeats, they were sensitive to rewards when actions were controllable but ignored outcomes-even positive ones-associated with reduced controllability. Our results show that preference for choice can be modulated by extrinsic reward properties including reward probability and risk as well as by controllability of the environment.

Inference of gene regulatory networks has been an active area of research for around 20 years, leading to the development of sophisticated inference algorithms based on a variety of assumptions and approaches. With the ever increasing demand for more accurate and powerful models, the inference problem remains of broad scientific interest. The abstract representation of biological systems through gene regulatory networks represents a powerful method to study such systems, encoding different amounts and types of information. In this review, we summarize the different types of inference algorithms specifically based on time-series transcriptomics, giving an overview of the main applications of gene regulatory networks in computational biology. This review is intended to give an updated reference of regulatory networks inference tools to biologists and researchers new to the topic and guide them in selecting the appropriate inference method that best fits their questions, aims, and experimental data.

Women (and all gender-discriminated people) are underrepresented in science, especially in leadership positions and higher stages of the scientific career. One of the main causes of career abandonment by women is maternity, with many women leaving Academia after having their first child because of the career penalties associated with motherhood. Thus, more actions to help scientific moms to balance family and academic work are urgently needed to increase representation of women and other gender discriminated people in Academia. Besides mothers, these rules may also benefit other groups such as mothers-to-be, fathers, caregivers, and women in general. Increasing women representation in science, including mothers, is critical because equality is a fundamental right, and because more diverse working environments are more productive and get to more optimal solutions. Here, we describe 10 simple rules that can be adopted in Academia to halt the abandonment of scientific careers by women after motherhood. We strongly encourage their implementation to increase gender diversity and equality in science.

Despite extensive studies on the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, there is still a lack of understanding of the downstream epigenetic and regulatory alterations in infected cells. In this study, we investigated changes in enhancer acetylation in epithelial lung cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their influence on transcriptional regulation and pathway activity. To achieve this, we integrated and reanalyzed data of enhancer acetylation, ex-vivo infection and single cell RNA-seq data from human patients. Our findings revealed coordinated changes in enhancers and transcriptional networks. We found that infected cells lose the WT1 transcription factor and demonstrate disruption of WT1-bound enhancers and of their associated target genes. Downstream targets of WT1 are involved in the regulation of the Wnt signaling and the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade, which indeed exhibit increased activation levels. These findings may provide a potential explanation for the development of pulmonary fibrosis, a lethal complication of COVID-19. Moreover, we revealed over-acetylated enhancers associated with upregulated genes involved in cell adhesion, which could contribute to cell-cell infection of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, we demonstrated that enhancers may play a role in the activation of pro-inflammatory cytokines and contribute to excessive inflammation in the lungs, a typical complication of COVID-19. Overall, our analysis provided novel insights into the cell-autonomous dysregulation of enhancer regulation caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection, a step on the path to a deeper molecular understanding of the disease.

Reports of low transmission efficiency, of a cassava mosaic begomovirus (CMB) in Bemisia tabaci whitefly, diminished the perceived importance of whitefly in CMB epidemics. Studies indicating synergies between B. tabaci and CMB prompt a reconsideration of this assessment. In this paper, we analysed the retention period and infectiousness of CMB-carrying B. tabaci as well as B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB. We assessed the role of low laboratory insect survival in historic reports of a 9d virus retention period. To do this, we introduced Bayesian analyses to an important class of experiment in plant pathology. We were unable to reject a null hypothesis of life-long CMB retention when we accounted for low insect survival. Our analysis confirmed low insect survival, with insects surviving on average for around three days of transfers from the original infected plant to subsequent test plants. Use of the new analysis to account for insect death may lead to re-calibration of retention periods for other important insect-borne plant pathogens. In addition, we showed that B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB is substantially higher than previously thought. We also introduced a technique for high resolution analysis of retention period, showing that B. tabaci infectiousness with CMB was increasing over the first five days of infection.

All but the simplest phenotypes are believed to result from interactions between two or more genes forming complex networks of gene regulation. Sleep is a complex trait known to depend on the system of feedback loops of the circadian clock, and on many other genes; however, the main components regulating the phenotype and how they interact remain an unsolved puzzle. Genomic and transcriptomic data may well provide part of the answer, but a full account requires a suitable quantitative framework. Here we conducted an artificial selection experiment for sleep duration with RNA-seq data acquired each generation. The phenotypic results are robust across replicates and previous experiments, and the transcription data provides a high-resolution, time-course data set for the evolution of sleep-related gene expression. In addition to a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model analysis of differential expression that accounts for experimental replicates we develop a flexible Gaussian Process model that estimates interactions between genes. 145 gene pairs are found to have interactions that are different from controls. Our method appears to be not only more specific than standard correlation metrics but also more sensitive, finding correlations not significant by other methods. Statistical predictions were compared to experimental data from public databases on gene interactions. Mutations of candidate genes implicated by our results affected night sleep, and gene expression profiles largely met predicted gene-gene interactions.

This paper demonstrates how two different methods used to calculate population-level mobility from Call Detail Records (CDR) produce varying predictions of the spread of epidemics informed by these data. Our findings are based on one CDR dataset describing inter-district movement in Ghana in 2021, produced using two different aggregation methodologies. One methodology, "all pairs," is designed to retain long distance network connections while the other, "sequential" methodology is designed to accurately reflect the volume of travel between locations. We show how the choice of methodology feeds through models of human mobility to the predictions of a metapopulation SEIR model of disease transmission. We also show that this impact varies depending on the location of pathogen introduction and the transmissibility of infections. For central locations or highly transmissible diseases, we do not observe significant differences between aggregation methodologies on the predicted spread of disease. For less transmissible diseases or those introduced into remote locations, we find that the choice of aggregation methodology influences the speed of spatial spread as well as the size of the peak number of infections in individual districts. Our findings can help researchers and users of epidemiological models to understand how methodological choices at the level of model inputs may influence the results of models of infectious disease transmission, as well as the circumstances in which these choices do not alter model predictions.

The chromatin in eukaryotic cells plays a fundamental role in all processes during a cell's life cycle. This nucleoprotein is normally tightly packed but needs to be unpacked for expression and division. The linker histones are critical for such packaging processes and while most experimental and simulation works recognize their crucial importance, the focus is nearly always set on the nucleosome as the basic chromatin building block. Linker histones can undergo several modifications, but only few studies on their ubiquitylation have been conducted. Mono-ubiquitylated linker histones (HUb), while poorly understood, are expected to influence DNA compaction. The size of ubiquitin and the globular domain of the linker histone are comparable and one would expect an increased disorder upon ubiquitylation of the linker histone. However, the formation of higher order chromatin is not hindered and ubiquitylation of the linker histone may even promote gene expression. Structural data on chromatosomes is rare and HUb has never been modeled in a chromatosome so far. Descriptions of the chromatin complex with HUb would greatly benefit from computational structural data. In this study we generate molecular dynamics simulation data for six differently linked HUb variants with the help of a sampling scheme tailored to drive the exploration of phase space. We identify conformational sub-states of the six HUb variants using the sketch-map algorithm for dimensionality reduction and iterative HDBSCAN for clustering on the excessively sampled, shallow free energy landscapes. We present a highly efficient geometric scoring method to identify sub-states of HUb that fit into the nucleosome. We predict HUb conformations inside a nucleosome using on-dyad and off-dyad chromatosome structures as reference and show that unbiased simulations of HUb produce significantly more fitting than non-fitting HUb conformations. A tetranucleosome array is used to show that ubiquitylation can even occur in chromatin without too much steric clashes.