Statistical analysis of microbial genomic data within epidemiological cohort studies holds the promise to assess the influence of environmental exposures on both the host and the host-associated microbiome. However, the observational character of prospective cohort data and the intricate characteristics of microbiome data make it challenging to discover causal associations between environment and microbiome. Here, we introduce a causal inference framework based on the Rubin Causal Model that can help scientists to investigate such environment-host microbiome relationships, to capitalize on existing, possibly powerful, test statistics, and test plausible sharp null hypotheses. Using data from the German KORA cohort study, we illustrate our framework by designing two hypothetical randomized experiments with interventions of (i) air pollution reduction and (ii) smoking prevention. We study the effects of these interventions on the human gut microbiome by testing shifts in microbial diversity, changes in individual microbial abundances, and microbial network wiring between groups of matched subjects via randomization-based inference. In the smoking prevention scenario, we identify a small interconnected group of taxa worth further scrutiny, including Christensenellaceae and Ruminococcaceae genera, that have been previously associated with blood metabolite changes. These findings demonstrate that our framework may uncover potentially causal links between environmental exposure and the gut microbiome from observational data. We anticipate the present statistical framework to be a good starting point for further discoveries on the role of the gut microbiome in environmental health.

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

Actin networks are essential for living cells to move, reproduce, and sense their environments. The dynamic and rheological behavior of actin networks is modulated by actin-binding proteins such as α-actinin, Arp2/3, and myosin. There is experimental evidence that actin-binding proteins modulate the cooperation of myosin motors by connecting the actin network. In this work, we present an analytical mean field model, using the Flory-Stockmayer theory of gelation, to understand how different actin-binding proteins change the connectivity of the actin filaments as the networks are formed. We follow the kinetics of the networks and estimate the concentrations of actin-binding proteins that are needed to reach connectivity percolation as well as to reach rigidity percolation. We find that Arp2/3 increases the actomyosin connectivity in the network in a non-monotonic way. We also describe how changing the connectivity of actomyosin networks modulates the ability of motors to exert forces, leading to three possible phases of the networks with distinctive dynamical characteristics: a sol phase, a gel phase, and an active phase. Thus, changes in the concentration and activity of actin-binding proteins in cells lead to a phase transition of the actin network, allowing the cells to perform active contraction and change their rheological properties.

Phase separation of biomolecules could be mediated by both specific and non-specific interactions. How the interplay between non-specific and specific interactions along with polymer entropy influences phase separation is an open question. We address this question by simulating self-associating molecules as polymer chains with a short core stretch that forms the specifically interacting functional interface and longer non-core regions that participate in non-specific/promiscuous interactions. Our results show that the interplay of specific (strength, ϵsp) and non-specific interactions (strength, ϵns) could result in phase separation of polymers and its transition to solid-like aggregates (mature state). In the absence of ϵns, the polymer chains do not dwell long enough in the vicinity of each other to undergo phase separation and transition into a mature state. On the other hand, in the limit of strong ϵns, the assemblies cannot transition into the mature state and form a non-specific assembly, suggesting an optimal range of interactions favoring mature multimers. In the scenario where only a fraction (Nfrac) of the non-core regions participate in attractive interactions, we find that slight modifications to either ϵns or Nfrac can result in dramatically altered self-assembled states. Using a combination of heterogeneous and homogeneous mix of polymers, we establish how this interplay between interaction energies dictates the propensity of biomolecules to find the correct binding partner at dilute concentrations in crowded environments.

Apathy is a debilitating feature of many neuropsychiatric diseases, that is typically described as a reduction of goal-directed behaviour. Despite its prevalence and prognostic importance, the mechanisms underlying apathy remain controversial. Degeneration of the locus coeruleus-noradrenaline system is known to contribute to motivational deficits, including apathy. In healthy people, noradrenaline has been implicated in signalling the uncertainty of expectations about the environment. We proposed that noradrenergic deficits contribute to apathy by modulating the relative weighting of prior beliefs about action outcomes. We tested this hypothesis in the clinical context of Parkinson's disease, given its associations with apathy and noradrenergic dysfunction. Participants with mild-to-moderate Parkinson's disease (N = 17) completed a randomised double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study with 40 mg of the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine. Prior weighting was inferred from psychophysical analysis of performance in an effort-based visuomotor task, and was confirmed as negatively correlated with apathy. Locus coeruleus integrity was assessed in vivo using magnetisation transfer imaging at ultra-high field 7T. The effect of atomoxetine depended on locus coeruleus integrity: participants with a more degenerate locus coeruleus showed a greater increase in prior weighting on atomoxetine versus placebo. The results indicate a contribution of the noradrenergic system to apathy and potential benefit from noradrenergic treatment of people with Parkinson's disease, subject to stratification according to locus coeruleus integrity. More broadly, these results reconcile emerging predictive processing accounts of the role of noradrenaline in goal-directed behaviour with the clinical symptom of apathy and its potential pharmacological treatment.

Chemical synapses exhibit a diverse array of internal mechanisms that affect the dynamics of transmission efficacy. Many of these processes, such as release of neurotransmitter and vesicle recycling, depend strongly on activity-dependent influx and accumulation of Ca2+. To model how each of these processes may affect the processing of information in neural circuits, and how their dysfunction may lead to disease states, requires a computationally efficient modelling framework, capable of generating accurate phenomenology without incurring a heavy computational cost per synapse. Constructing a phenomenologically realistic model requires the precise characterization of the timing and probability of neurotransmitter release. Difficulties arise in that functional forms of instantaneous release rate can be difficult to extract from noisy data without running many thousands of trials, and in biophysical synapses, facilitation of per-vesicle release probability is confounded by depletion. To overcome this, we obtained traces of free Ca2+ concentration in response to various action potential stimulus trains from a molecular MCell model of a hippocampal Schaffer collateral axon. Ca2+ sensors were placed at varying distance from a voltage-dependent calcium channel (VDCC) cluster, and Ca2+ was buffered by calbindin. Then, using the calcium traces to drive deterministic state vector models of synaptotagmin 1 and 7 (Syt-1/7), which respectively mediate synchronous and asynchronous release in excitatory hippocampal synapses, we obtained high-resolution profiles of instantaneous release rate, to which we applied functional fits. Synchronous vesicle release occurred predominantly within half a micron of the source of spike-evoked Ca2+ influx, while asynchronous release occurred more consistently at all distances. Both fast and slow mechanisms exhibited multi-exponential release rate curves, whose magnitudes decayed exponentially with distance from the Ca2+ source. Profile parameters facilitate on different time scales according to a single, general facilitation function. These functional descriptions lay the groundwork for efficient mesoscale modelling of vesicular release dynamics.

The spreading of bacterial populations is central to processes in agriculture, the environment, and medicine. However, existing models of spreading typically focus on cells in unconfined settings-despite the fact that many bacteria inhabit complex and crowded environments, such as soils, sediments, and biological tissues/gels, in which solid obstacles confine the cells and thereby strongly regulate population spreading. Here, we develop an extended version of the classic Keller-Segel model of bacterial spreading via motility that also incorporates cellular growth and division, and explicitly considers the influence of confinement in promoting both cell-solid and cell-cell collisions. Numerical simulations of this extended model demonstrate how confinement fundamentally alters the dynamics and morphology of spreading bacterial populations, in good agreement with recent experimental results. In particular, with increasing confinement, we find that cell-cell collisions increasingly hinder the initial formation and the long-time propagation speed of chemotactic pulses. Moreover, also with increasing confinement, we find that cellular growth and division plays an increasingly dominant role in driving population spreading-eventually leading to a transition from chemotactic spreading to growth-driven spreading via a slower, jammed front. This work thus provides a theoretical foundation for further investigations of the influence of confinement on bacterial spreading. More broadly, these results help to provide a framework to predict and control the dynamics of bacterial populations in complex and crowded environments.

Feedback mechanisms within cell lineages are thought to be important for maintaining tissue homeostasis. Mathematical models that assume well-mixed cell populations, together with experimental data, have suggested that negative feedback from differentiated cells on the stem cell self-renewal probability can maintain a stable equilibrium and hence homeostasis. Cell lineage dynamics, however, are characterized by spatial structure, which can lead to different properties. Here, we investigate these dynamics using spatially explicit computational models, including cell division, differentiation, death, and migration / diffusion processes. According to these models, the negative feedback loop on stem cell self-renewal fails to maintain homeostasis, both under the assumption of strong spatial restrictions and fast migration / diffusion. Although homeostasis cannot be maintained, this feedback can regulate cell density and promote the formation of spatial structures in the model. Tissue homeostasis, however, can be achieved if spatially restricted negative feedback on self-renewal is combined with an experimentally documented spatial feedforward loop, in which stem cells regulate the fate of transit amplifying cells. This indicates that the dynamics of feedback regulation in tissue cell lineages are more complex than previously thought, and that combinations of spatially explicit control mechanisms are likely instrumental.

Gene expression is inherently stochastic and pervasively regulated. While substantial work combining theory and experiments has been carried out to study how noise propagates through transcriptional regulations, the stochastic behavior of genes regulated at the level of translation is poorly understood. Here, we engineered a synthetic genetic system in which a target gene is down-regulated by a protein translation factor, which in turn is regulated transcriptionally. By monitoring both the expression of the regulator and the regulated gene at the single-cell level, we quantified the stochasticity of the system. We found that with a protein translation factor a tight repression can be achieved in single cells, noise propagation from gene to gene is buffered, and the regulated gene is sensitive in a nonlinear way to global perturbations in translation. A suitable mathematical model was instrumental to predict the transfer functions of the system. We also showed that a Gamma distribution parameterized with mesoscopic parameters, such as the mean expression and coefficient of variation, provides a deep analytical explanation about the system, displaying enough versatility to capture the cell-to-cell variability in genes regulated both transcriptionally and translationally. Overall, these results contribute to enlarge our understanding on stochastic gene expression, at the same time they provide design principles for synthetic biology.

A large literature has accumulated suggesting that human and animal decision making is driven by at least two systems, and that important functions of these systems can be captured by reinforcement learning algorithms. The "model-free" system caches and uses stimulus-value or stimulus-response associations, and the "model-based" system implements more flexible planning using a model of the world. However, it is not clear how the two systems interact during deliberation and how a single decision emerges from this process, especially when they disagree. Most previous work has assumed that while the systems operate in parallel, they do so independently, and they combine linearly to influence decisions. Using an integrated reinforcement learning/drift-diffusion model, we tested the hypothesis that the two systems interact in a non-linear fashion similar to other situations with cognitive conflict. We differentiated two forms of conflict: action conflict, a binary state representing whether the systems disagreed on the best action, and value conflict, a continuous measure of the extent to which the two systems disagreed on the difference in value between the available options. We found that decisions with greater value conflict were characterized by reduced model-based control and increased caution both with and without action conflict. Action conflict itself (the binary state) acted in the opposite direction, although its effects were less prominent. We also found that between-system conflict was highly correlated with within-system conflict, and although it is less clear a priori why the latter might influence the strength of each system above its standard linear contribution, we could not rule it out. Our work highlights the importance of non-linear conflict effects, and provides new constraints for more detailed process models of decision making. It also presents new avenues to explore with relation to disorders of compulsivity, where an imbalance between systems has been implicated.

Schizophrenia is a debilitating psychiatric disorder, leading to both physical and social morbidity. Worldwide 1% of the population is struggling with the disease, with 100,000 new cases annually only in the United States. Despite its importance, the goal of finding effective treatments for schizophrenia remains a challenging task, and previous work conducted expensive large-scale phenotypic screens. This work investigates the benefits of Machine Learning for graphs to optimize drug phenotypic screens and predict compounds that mitigate abnormal brain reduction induced by excessive glial phagocytic activity in schizophrenia subjects. Given a compound and its concentration as input, we propose a method that predicts a score associated with three possible compound effects, i.e., reduce, increase, or not influence phagocytosis. We leverage a high-throughput screening to prove experimentally that our method achieves good generalization capabilities. The screening involves 2218 compounds at five different concentrations. Then, we analyze the usability of our approach in a practical setting, i.e., prioritizing the selection of compounds in the SWEETLEAD library. We provide a list of 64 compounds from the library that have the most potential clinical utility for glial phagocytosis mitigation. Lastly, we propose a novel approach to computationally validate their utility as possible therapies for schizophrenia.

Heterogeneity of cancer means many tumorigenic genes are only aberrantly expressed in a subset of patients and thus follow a bimodal distribution, having two modes of expression within a single population. Traditional statistical techniques that compare sample means between cancer patients and healthy controls fail to detect bimodally expressed genes. We utilize a mixture modeling approach to identify bimodal microRNA (miRNA) across cancers, find consistent sources of heterogeneity, and identify potential oncogenic miRNA that may be used to guide personalized therapies. Pathway analysis was conducted using target genes of the bimodal miRNA to identify potential functional implications in cancer. In vivo overexpression experiments were conducted to elucidate the clinical importance of bimodal miRNA in chemotherapy treatments. In nine types of cancer, tumors consistently displayed greater bimodality than normal tissue. Specifically, in liver and lung cancers, high expression of miR-105 and miR-767 was indicative of poor prognosis. Functional pathway analysis identified target genes of miR-105 and miR-767 enriched in the phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K) pathway, and analysis of over 200 cancer drugs in vitro showed that drugs targeting the same pathway had greater efficacy in cell lines with high miR-105 and miR-767 levels. Overexpression of the two miRNA facilitated response to PI3K inhibitor treatment. We demonstrate that while cancer is marked by considerable genetic heterogeneity, there is between-cancer concordance regarding the particular miRNA that are more variable. Bimodal miRNA are ideal biomarkers that can be used to stratify patients for prognosis and drug response in certain types of cancer.

The high-level organization of the cell is embedded in indirect relationships that connect distinct cellular processes. Existing computational approaches for detecting indirect relationships between genes typically consist of propagating abstract information through network representations of the cell. However, the selection of genes to serve as the source of propagation is inherently biased by prior knowledge. Here, we sought to derive an unbiased view of the high-level organization of the cell by identifying the genes that propagate and receive information most effectively in the cell, and the indirect relationships between these genes. To this aim, we adapted a perturbation-response scanning strategy initially developed for identifying allosteric interactions within proteins. We deployed this strategy onto an elastic network model of the yeast genetic interaction profile similarity network. This network revealed a superior propensity for information propagation relative to simulated networks with similar topology. Perturbation-response scanning identified the major distributors and receivers of information in the network, named effector and sensor genes, respectively. Effectors formed dense clusters centrally integrated into the network, whereas sensors formed loosely connected antenna-shaped clusters and contained genes with previously characterized involvement in signal transduction. We propose that indirect relationships between effector and sensor clusters represent major paths of information flow between distinct cellular processes. Genetic similarity networks for fission yeast and human displayed similarly strong propensities for information propagation and clusters of effector and sensor genes, suggesting that the global architecture enabling indirect relationships is evolutionarily conserved across species. Our results demonstrate that elastic network modeling of cellular networks constitutes a promising strategy to probe the high-level organization and cooperativity in the cell.

Since its introduction in 2011 the variant call format (VCF) has been widely adopted for processing DNA and RNA variants in practically all population studies-as well as in somatic and germline mutation studies. The VCF format can represent single nucleotide variants, multi-nucleotide variants, insertions and deletions, and simple structural variants called and anchored against a reference genome. Here we present a spectrum of over 125 useful, complimentary free and open source software tools and libraries, we wrote and made available through the multiple vcflib, bio-vcf, cyvcf2, hts-nim and slivar projects. These tools are applied for comparison, filtering, normalisation, smoothing and annotation of VCF, as well as output of statistics, visualisation, and transformations of files variants. These tools run everyday in critical biomedical pipelines and countless shell scripts. Our tools are part of the wider bioinformatics ecosystem and we highlight best practices. We shortly discuss the design of VCF, lessons learnt, and how we can address more complex variation through pangenome graph formats, variation that can not easily be represented by the VCF format.

SARS-CoV-2 variants with enhanced transmissibility represent a serious threat to global health. Here we report machine learning models that can predict the impact of receptor-binding domain (RBD) mutations on receptor (ACE2) affinity, which is linked to infectivity, and escape from human serum antibodies, which is linked to viral neutralization. Importantly, the models predict many of the known impacts of RBD mutations in current and former Variants of Concern on receptor affinity and antibody escape as well as novel sets of mutations that strongly modulate both properties. Moreover, these models reveal key opposing impacts of RBD mutations on transmissibility, as many sets of RBD mutations predicted to increase antibody escape are also predicted to reduce receptor affinity and vice versa. These models, when used in concert, capture the complex impacts of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on properties linked to transmissibility and are expected to improve the development of next-generation vaccines and biotherapeutics.

With the frenetic growth of high-dimensional datasets in different biomedical domains, there is an urgent need to develop predictive methods able to deal with this complexity. Feature selection is a relevant strategy in machine learning to address this challenge. We introduce a novel feature selection algorithm for linear regression called BOSO (Bilevel Optimization Selector Operator). We conducted a benchmark of BOSO with key algorithms in the literature, finding a superior accuracy for feature selection in high-dimensional datasets. Proof-of-concept of BOSO for predicting drug sensitivity in cancer is presented. A detailed analysis is carried out for methotrexate, a well-studied drug targeting cancer metabolism.

There is a growing interest in biomedical engineering in developing procedures that provide accurate simulations of the neural response to electrical stimulus produced by implants. Moreover, recent research focuses on models that take into account individual patient characteristics. We present a phenomenological computational model that is customized with the patient's data provided by the electrically evoked compound action potential (ECAP) for simulating the neural response to electrical stimulus produced by the electrodes of cochlear implants (CIs). The model links the input currents of the electrodes to the simulated ECAP. Potentials and currents are calculated by solving the quasi-static approximation of the Maxwell equations with the finite element method (FEM). In ECAPs recording, an active electrode generates a current that elicits action potentials in the surrounding auditory nerve fibers (ANFs). The sum of these action potentials is registered by other nearby electrode. Our computational model emulates this phenomenon introducing a set of line current sources replacing the ANFs by a set of virtual neurons (VNs). To fit the ECAP amplitudes we assign a suitable weight to each VN related with the probability of an ANF to be excited. This probability is expressed by a cumulative beta distribution parameterized by two shape parameters that are calculated by means of a differential evolution algorithm (DE). Being the weights function of the current density, any change in the design of the CI affecting the current density produces changes in the weights and, therefore, in the simulated ECAP, which confers to our model a predictive capacity. The results of the validation with ECAP data from two patients are presented, achieving a satisfactory fit of the experimental data with those provided by the proposed computational model.

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death, but mortality can be reduced by detecting tumors earlier so that treatment is initiated at a less aggressive stage. The tradeoff between costs associated with screening and its benefit makes the decision of whom to screen and when a challenge. To enable comparisons across screening strategies for any cancer type, we demonstrate a mathematical modeling platform based on the theory of queuing networks designed for quantifying the benefits of screening strategies. Our methodology can be used to design optimal screening protocols and to estimate their benefits for specific patient populations. Our method is amenable to exact analysis, thus circumventing the need for simulations, and is capable of exactly quantifying outcomes given variability in the age of diagnosis, rate of progression, and screening sensitivity and intervention outcomes. We demonstrate the power of this methodology by applying it to data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Our approach estimates the benefits that various novel screening programs would confer to different patient populations, thus enabling us to formulate an optimal screening allocation and quantify its potential effects for any cancer type and intervention.

Rapid testing strategies that replace the isolation of close contacts through the use of lateral flow device tests (LFTs) have been suggested as a way of controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools that maintain low levels of pupil absences. We developed an individual-based model of a secondary school formed of exclusive year group bubbles (five year groups, with 200 pupils per year) to assess the likely impact of strategies using LFTs in secondary schools over the course of a seven-week half-term on transmission, absences, and testing volume, compared to a policy of isolating year group bubbles upon a pupil returning a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. We also considered the sensitivity of results to levels of participation in rapid testing and underlying model assumptions. While repeated testing of year group bubbles following case detection is less effective at reducing infections than a policy of isolating year group bubbles, strategies involving twice weekly mass testing can reduce infections to lower levels than would occur under year group isolation. By combining regular testing with serial contact testing or isolation, infection levels can be reduced further still. At high levels of pupil participation in lateral flow testing, strategies replacing the isolation of year group bubbles with testing substantially reduce absences, but require a high volume of testing. Our results highlight the conflict between the goals of minimising within-school transmission, minimising absences and minimising testing burden. While rapid testing strategies can reduce school transmission and absences, they may lead to a large number of daily tests.

To accurately predict rewards associated with states or actions, the variability of observations has to be taken into account. In particular, when the observations are noisy, the individual rewards should have less influence on tracking of average reward, and the estimate of the mean reward should be updated to a smaller extent after each observation. However, it is not known how the magnitude of the observation noise might be tracked and used to control prediction updates in the brain reward system. Here, we introduce a new model that uses simple, tractable learning rules that track the mean and standard deviation of reward, and leverages prediction errors scaled by uncertainty as the central feedback signal. We show that the new model has an advantage over conventional reinforcement learning models in a value tracking task, and approaches a theoretic limit of performance provided by the Kalman filter. Further, we propose a possible biological implementation of the model in the basal ganglia circuit. In the proposed network, dopaminergic neurons encode reward prediction errors scaled by standard deviation of rewards. We show that such scaling may arise if the striatal neurons learn the standard deviation of rewards and modulate the activity of dopaminergic neurons. The model is consistent with experimental findings concerning dopamine prediction error scaling relative to reward magnitude, and with many features of striatal plasticity. Our results span across the levels of implementation, algorithm, and computation, and might have important implications for understanding the dopaminergic prediction error signal and its relation to adaptive and effective learning.

Biological circuits such as neural or gene regulation networks use internal states to map sensory input to an adaptive repertoire of behavior. Characterizing this mapping is a major challenge for systems biology. Though experiments that probe internal states are developing rapidly, organismal complexity presents a fundamental obstacle given the many possible ways internal states could map to behavior. Using C. elegans as an example, we propose a protocol for systematic perturbation of neural states that limits experimental complexity and could eventually help characterize collective aspects of the neural-behavioral map. We consider experimentally motivated small perturbations-ones that are most likely to preserve natural dynamics and are closer to internal control mechanisms-to neural states and their impact on collective neural activity. Then, we connect such perturbations to the local information geometry of collective statistics, which can be fully characterized using pairwise perturbations. Applying the protocol to a minimal model of C. elegans neural activity, we find that collective neural statistics are most sensitive to a few principal perturbative modes. Dominant eigenvalues decay initially as a power law, unveiling a hierarchy that arises from variation in individual neural activity and pairwise interactions. Highest-ranking modes tend to be dominated by a few, "pivotal" neurons that account for most of the system's sensitivity, suggesting a sparse mechanism of collective control.

Finding the right amount of deliberation, between insufficient and excessive, is a hard decision making problem that depends on the value we place on our time. Average-reward, putatively encoded by tonic dopamine, serves in existing reinforcement learning theory as the opportunity cost of time, including deliberation time. Importantly, this cost can itself vary with the environmental context and is not trivial to estimate. Here, we propose how the opportunity cost of deliberation can be estimated adaptively on multiple timescales to account for non-stationary contextual factors. We use it in a simple decision-making heuristic based on average-reward reinforcement learning (AR-RL) that we call Performance-Gated Deliberation (PGD). We propose PGD as a strategy used by animals wherein deliberation cost is implemented directly as urgency, a previously characterized neural signal effectively controlling the speed of the decision-making process. We show PGD outperforms AR-RL solutions in explaining behaviour and urgency of non-human primates in a context-varying random walk prediction task and is consistent with relative performance and urgency in a context-varying random dot motion task. We make readily testable predictions for both neural activity and behaviour.

Hoogsteen (HG) base pairing is characterized by a 180° rotation of the purine base with respect to the Watson-Crick-Franklin (WCF) motif. Recently, it has been found that both conformations coexist in a dynamical equilibrium and that several biological functions require HG pairs. This relevance has motivated experimental and computational investigations of the base-pairing transition. However, a systematic simulation of sequence variations has remained out of reach. Here, we employ advanced path-based methods to perform unprecedented free-energy calculations. Our methodology enables us to study the different mechanisms of purine rotation, either remaining inside or after flipping outside of the double helix. We study seven different sequences, which are neighbor variations of a well-studied A⋅T pair in A6-DNA. We observe the known effect of A⋅T steps favoring HG stability, and find evidence of triple-hydrogen-bonded neighbors hindering the inside transition. More importantly, we identify a dominant factor: the direction of the A rotation, with the 6-ring pointing either towards the longer or shorter segment of the chain, respectively relating to a lower or higher barrier. This highlights the role of DNA's relative flexibility as a modulator of the WCF/HG dynamic equilibrium. Additionally, we provide a robust methodology for future HG proclivity studies.

Responding to change is a fundamental property of life, making time-series data invaluable in biology. For microbes, plate readers are a popular, convenient means to measure growth and also gene expression using fluorescent reporters. Nevertheless, the difficulties of analysing the resulting data can be a bottleneck, particularly when combining measurements from different wells and plates. Here we present omniplate, a Python module that corrects and normalises plate-reader data, estimates growth rates and fluorescence per cell as functions of time, calculates errors, exports in different formats, and enables meta-analysis of multiple plates. The software corrects for autofluorescence, the optical density's non-linear dependence on the number of cells, and the effects of the media. We use omniplate to measure the Monod relationship for the growth of budding yeast in raffinose, showing that raffinose is a convenient carbon source for controlling growth rates. Using fluorescent tagging, we study yeast's glucose transport. Our results are consistent with the regulation of the hexose transporter (HXT) genes being approximately bipartite: the medium and high affinity transporters are predominately regulated by both the high affinity glucose sensor Snf3 and the kinase complex SNF1 via the repressors Mth1, Mig1, and Mig2; the low affinity transporters are predominately regulated by the low affinity sensor Rgt2 via the co-repressor Std1. We thus demonstrate that omniplate is a powerful tool for exploiting the advantages offered by time-series data in revealing biological regulation.

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpes virus (KSHV) is a human oncovirus. KSHV relies on manipulating the host cell N6-methyl adenosine (m6A) RNA modification pathway to enhance virus replication. Methylation within a RNA stem loop of the open reading frame 50 (ORF50) increases transcript stability via the recruitment of the m6A reader, SND1. In this contribution we explore the energy landscapes of the unmethylated and methylated RNA stem loops of ORF50 to investigate the effect of methylation on the structure of the stem loop. We observe a significant shift upon methylation between an open and closed configuration of the top of the stem loop. In the unmethylated stem loop the closed configuration is much lower in energy, and, as a result, exhibits higher occupancy.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase/cyclohydrolase (MTHFD2) is a new drug target that is expressed in cancer cells but not in normal adult cells, which provides an Achilles heel to selectively kill cancer cells. Despite the availability of crystal structures of MTHFD2 in the inhibitor- and cofactor-bound forms, key information is missing due to technical limitations, including (a) the location of absolutely required Mg2+ ion, and (b) the substrate-bound form of MTHFD2. Using computational modeling and simulations, we propose that two magnesium ions are present at the active site whereby (i) Arg233, Asp225, and two water molecules coordinate [Formula: see text], while [Formula: see text] together with Arg233 stabilize the inorganic phosphate (Pi); (ii) Asp168 and three water molecules coordinate [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] further stabilizes Pi by forming a hydrogen bond with two oxygens of Pi; (iii) Arg201 directly coordinates the Pi; and (iv) through three water-mediated interactions, Asp168 contributes to the positioning and stabilization of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and Pi. Our computational study at the empirical valence bond level allowed us also to elucidate the detailed reaction mechanisms. We found that the dehydrogenase activity features a proton-coupled electron transfer with charge redistribution connected to the reorganization of the surrounding water molecules which further facilitates the subsequent cyclohydrolase activity. The cyclohydrolase activity then drives the hydration of the imidazoline ring and the ring opening in a concerted way. Furthermore, we have uncovered that two key residues, Ser197/Arg233, are important factors in determining the cofactor (NADP+/NAD+) preference of the dehydrogenase activity. Our work sheds new light on the structural and kinetic framework of MTHFD2, which will be helpful to design small molecule inhibitors that can be used for cancer treatment.

We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha variant. We consider six sub-national regions and study the effect of vaccines in terms of number of averted deaths, infections, and reduction in the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with respect to counterfactual scenarios with the actual non-pharmaceuticals interventions but no vaccine administration. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness in counterfactual scenarios with different vaccines allocation strategies and vaccination rates. Our results show that, as of 2021/07/05, vaccines averted 29, 350 (IQR: [16, 454-42, 826]) deaths and 4, 256, 332 (IQR: [1, 675, 564-6, 980, 070]) infections and a new pandemic wave in the country. During the same period, they achieved a -22.2% (IQR: [-31.4%; -13.9%]) IFR reduction. We show that a campaign that would have strictly prioritized age groups at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, besides frontline workers and the fragile population, would have implied additional benefits both in terms of avoided fatalities and reduction in the IFR. Strategies targeting the most active age groups would have prevented a higher number of infections but would have been associated with more deaths. Finally, we study the effects of different vaccination intake scenarios by rescaling the number of available doses in the time period under study to those administered in other countries of reference. The modeling framework can be applied to other countries to provide a mechanistic characterization of vaccination campaigns worldwide.

The fraction of cases reported, known as 'reporting', is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an epidemic which is, by definition, not observed. We introduce a simple statistical method for estimating reporting, initially developed for the response to Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018-2020. This approach uses transmission chain data typically gathered through case investigation and contact tracing, and uses the proportion of investigated cases with a known, reported infector as a proxy for reporting. Using simulated epidemics, we study how this method performs for different outbreak sizes and reporting levels. Results suggest that our method has low bias, reasonable precision, and despite sub-optimal coverage, usually provides estimates within close range (5-10%) of the true value. Being fast and simple, this method could be useful for estimating reporting in real-time in settings where person-to-person transmission is the main driver of the epidemic, and where case investigation is routinely performed as part of surveillance and contact tracing activities.

Exploiting biological processes to recycle renewable carbon into high value platform chemicals provides a sustainable and greener alternative to current reliance on petrochemicals. In this regard Cupriavidus necator H16 represents a particularly promising microbial chassis due to its ability to grow on a wide range of low-cost feedstocks, including the waste gas carbon dioxide, whilst also naturally producing large quantities of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) during nutrient-limited conditions. Understanding the complex metabolic behaviour of this bacterium is a prerequisite for the design of successful engineering strategies for optimising product yields. We present a genome-scale metabolic model (GSM) of C. necator H16 (denoted iCN1361), which is directly constructed from the BioCyc database to improve the readability and reusability of the model. After the initial automated construction, we have performed extensive curation and both theoretical and experimental validation. By carrying out a genome-wide essentiality screening using a Transposon-directed Insertion site Sequencing (TraDIS) approach, we showed that the model could predict gene knockout phenotypes with a high level of accuracy. Importantly, we indicate how experimental and computational predictions can be used to improve model structure and, thus, model accuracy as well as to evaluate potential false positives identified in the experiments. Finally, by integrating transcriptomics data with iCN1361 we create a condition-specific model, which, importantly, better reflects PHB production in C. necator H16. Observed changes in the omics data and in-silico-estimated alterations in fluxes were then used to predict the regulatory control of key cellular processes. The results presented demonstrate that iCN1361 is a valuable tool for unravelling the system-level metabolic behaviour of C. necator H16 and can provide useful insights for designing metabolic engineering strategies.

While hierarchical experimental designs are near-ubiquitous in neuroscience and biomedical research, researchers often do not take the structure of their datasets into account while performing statistical hypothesis tests. Resampling-based methods are a flexible strategy for performing these analyses but are difficult due to the lack of open-source software to automate test construction and execution. To address this, we present Hierarch, a Python package to perform hypothesis tests and compute confidence intervals on hierarchical experimental designs. Using a combination of permutation resampling and bootstrap aggregation, Hierarch can be used to perform hypothesis tests that maintain nominal Type I error rates and generate confidence intervals that maintain the nominal coverage probability without making distributional assumptions about the dataset of interest. Hierarch makes use of the Numba JIT compiler to reduce p-value computation times to under one second for typical datasets in biomedical research. Hierarch also enables researchers to construct user-defined resampling plans that take advantage of Hierarch's Numba-accelerated functions.

Social interactions influence people's feelings and behavior. Here, we propose that a person's well-being is influenced not only by interactions they experience themselves, but also by those they observe. In particular, we test and quantify the influence of observed selfishness and observed inequality on a bystanders' feelings and non-costly punishment decisions. We developed computational models that relate others' (un)selfish acts to observers' emotional reactions and punishment decisions. These characterize the rules by which others' interactions are transformed into bystanders' reactions, and successfully predict those reactions in out-of-sample participants. The models highlight the impact of two social values-'selfishness aversion' and 'inequality aversion'. As for the latter we find that even small violations from perfect equality have a disproportionately large impact on feelings and punishment. In this age of internet and social media we constantly observe others' online interactions, in addition to in-person interactions. Quantifying the consequences of such observations is important for predicting their impact on society.

Growing cells adopt common basic strategies to achieve optimal resource allocation under limited resource availability. Our current understanding of such "growth laws" neglects degradation, assuming that it occurs slowly compared to the cell cycle duration. Here we argue that this assumption cannot hold at slow growth, leading to important consequences. We propose a simple framework showing that at slow growth protein degradation is balanced by a fraction of "maintenance" ribosomes. Consequently, active ribosomes do not drop to zero at vanishing growth, but as growth rate diminishes, an increasing fraction of active ribosomes performs maintenance. Through a detailed analysis of compiled data, we show that the predictions of this model agree with data from E. coli and S. cerevisiae. Intriguingly, we also find that protein degradation increases at slow growth, which we interpret as a consequence of active waste management and/or recycling. Our results highlight protein turnover as an underrated factor for our understanding of growth laws across kingdoms.

Identifying structural differences among proteins can be a non-trivial task. When contrasting ensembles of protein structures obtained from molecular dynamics simulations, biologically-relevant features can be easily overshadowed by spurious fluctuations. Here, we present SINATRA Pro, a computational pipeline designed to robustly identify topological differences between two sets of protein structures. Algorithmically, SINATRA Pro works by first taking in the 3D atomic coordinates for each protein snapshot and summarizing them according to their underlying topology. Statistically significant topological features are then projected back onto a user-selected representative protein structure, thus facilitating the visual identification of biophysical signatures of different protein ensembles. We assess the ability of SINATRA Pro to detect minute conformational changes in five independent protein systems of varying complexities. In all test cases, SINATRA Pro identifies known structural features that have been validated by previous experimental and computational studies, as well as novel features that are also likely to be biologically-relevant according to the literature. These results highlight SINATRA Pro as a promising method for facilitating the non-trivial task of pattern recognition in trajectories resulting from molecular dynamics simulations, with substantially increased resolution.

Working memory is a core component of critical cognitive functions such as planning and decision-making. Persistent activity that lasts long after the stimulus offset has been considered a neural substrate for working memory. Attractor dynamics based on network interactions can successfully reproduce such persistent activity. However, it requires a fine-tuning of network connectivity, in particular, to form continuous attractors which were suggested for encoding continuous signals in working memory. Here, we investigate whether a specific form of synaptic plasticity rules can mitigate such tuning problems in two representative working memory models, namely, rate-coded and location-coded persistent activity. We consider two prominent types of plasticity rules, differential plasticity correcting the rapid activity changes and homeostatic plasticity regularizing the long-term average of activity, both of which have been proposed to fine-tune the weights in an unsupervised manner. Consistent with the findings of previous works, differential plasticity alone was enough to recover a graded-level persistent activity after perturbations in the connectivity. For the location-coded memory, differential plasticity could also recover persistent activity. However, its pattern can be irregular for different stimulus locations under slow learning speed or large perturbation in the connectivity. On the other hand, homeostatic plasticity shows a robust recovery of smooth spatial patterns under particular types of synaptic perturbations, such as perturbations in incoming synapses onto the entire or local populations. However, homeostatic plasticity was not effective against perturbations in outgoing synapses from local populations. Instead, combining it with differential plasticity recovers location-coded persistent activity for a broader range of perturbations, suggesting compensation between two plasticity rules.

Understanding the inherited nature of how biological processes dynamically change over time and exhibit intra- and inter-individual variability, due to the different responses to environmental stimuli and when interacting with other processes, has been a major focus of systems biology. The rise of single-cell fluorescent microscopy has enabled the study of those phenomena. The analysis of single-cell data with mechanistic models offers an invaluable tool to describe dynamic cellular processes and to rationalise cell-to-cell variability within the population. However, extracting mechanistic information from single-cell data has proven difficult. This requires statistical methods to infer unknown model parameters from dynamic, multi-individual data accounting for heterogeneity caused by both intrinsic (e.g. variations in chemical reactions) and extrinsic (e.g. variability in protein concentrations) noise. Although several inference methods exist, the availability of efficient, general and accessible methods that facilitate modelling of single-cell data, remains lacking. Here we present a scalable and flexible framework for Bayesian inference in state-space mixed-effects single-cell models with stochastic dynamic. Our approach infers model parameters when intrinsic noise is modelled by either exact or approximate stochastic simulators, and when extrinsic noise is modelled by either time-varying, or time-constant parameters that vary between cells. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach by studying how cell-to-cell variation in carbon source utilisation affects heterogeneity in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae SNF1 nutrient sensing pathway. We identify hexokinase activity as a source of extrinsic noise and deduce that sugar availability dictates cell-to-cell variability.

We present a simple model which can account for the stereoscopic sensitivity of praying mantis predatory strikes. The model consists of a single "disparity sensor": a binocular neuron sensitive to stereoscopic disparity and thus to distance from the animal. The model is based closely on the known behavioural and neurophysiological properties of mantis stereopsis. The monocular inputs to the neuron reflect temporal change and are insensitive to contrast sign, making the sensor insensitive to interocular correlation. The monocular receptive fields have a excitatory centre and inhibitory surround, making them tuned to size. The disparity sensor combines inputs from the two eyes linearly, applies a threshold and then an exponent output nonlinearity. The activity of the sensor represents the model mantis's instantaneous probability of striking. We integrate this over the stimulus duration to obtain the expected number of strikes in response to moving targets with different stereoscopic disparity, size and vertical disparity. We optimised the parameters of the model so as to bring its predictions into agreement with our empirical data on mean strike rate as a function of stimulus size and disparity. The model proves capable of reproducing the relatively broad tuning to size and narrow tuning to stereoscopic disparity seen in mantis striking behaviour. Although the model has only a single centre-surround receptive field in each eye, it displays qualitatively the same interaction between size and disparity as we observed in real mantids: the preferred size increases as simulated prey distance increases beyond the preferred distance. We show that this occurs because of a stereoscopic "false match" between the leading edge of the stimulus in one eye and its trailing edge in the other; further work will be required to find whether such false matches occur in real mantises. Importantly, the model also displays realistic responses to stimuli with vertical disparity and to pairs of identical stimuli offering a "ghost match", despite not being fitted to these data. This is the first image-computable model of insect stereopsis, and reproduces key features of both neurophysiology and striking behaviour.

Ethanol alters many subsystems of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, including the cell cycle. Two ethanol-responsive lncRNAs in yeast interact with cell cycle proteins, and here, we investigated the role of these RNAs in cell cycle. Our network dynamic modeling showed that higher and lower ethanol-tolerant strains undergo cell cycle arrest in mitosis and G1 phases, respectively, during ethanol stress. The higher population rebound of the lower ethanol-tolerant phenotype after stress relief responds to the late phase arrest. We found that the lncRNA lnc9136 of SEY6210 (a lower ethanol-tolerant strain) induces cells to skip mitosis arrest. Simulating an overexpression of lnc9136 and analyzing CRISPR-Cas9 mutants lacking this lncRNA suggest that lnc9136 induces a regular cell cycle even under ethanol stress, indirectly regulating Swe1p and Clb1/2 by binding to Gin4p and Hsl1p. Notably, lnc10883 of BY4742 (a higher ethanol-tolerant strain) does not prevent G1 arrest in this strain under ethanol stress. However, lnc19883 circumvents DNA and spindle damage checkpoints, maintaining a functional cell cycle by interacting with Mec1p or Bub1p even in the presence of DNA/spindle damage. Overall, we present the first evidence of direct roles for lncRNAs in regulating yeast cell cycle proteins, the dynamics of this system in different ethanol-tolerant phenotypes, and a new yeast cell cycle model.

Epithelial tissues act as barriers and, therefore, must repair themselves, respond to environmental changes and grow without compromising their integrity. Consequently, they exhibit complex viscoelastic rheological behavior where constituent cells actively tune their mechanical properties to change the overall response of the tissue, e.g., from solid-like to fluid-like. Mesoscopic mechanical properties of epithelia are commonly modeled with the vertex model. While previous studies have predominantly focused on the rheological properties of the vertex model at long time scales, we systematically studied the full dynamic range by applying small oscillatory shear and bulk deformations in both solid-like and fluid-like phases for regular hexagonal and disordered cell configurations. We found that the shear and bulk responses in the fluid and solid phases can be described by standard spring-dashpot viscoelastic models. Furthermore, the solid-fluid transition can be tuned by applying pre-deformation to the system. Our study provides insights into the mechanisms by which epithelia can regulate their rich rheological behavior.

INTRODUCTION: The Taenia solium tapeworm is responsible for cysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease presenting as larvae in the body of a host following taenia egg ingestion. Neurocysticercosis (NCC), the name of the disease when it affects the human central nervous system, is a major cause of epilepsy in developing countries, and can also cause intracranial hypertension, hydrocephalus and death. Simulation models can help identify the most cost-effective interventions before their implementation. Modelling NCC should enable the comparison of a broad range of interventions, from treatment of human taeniasis (presence of an adult taenia worm in the human intestine) to NCC mitigation. It also allows a focus on the actual impact of the disease, rather than using proxies as is the case for other models. METHODS: This agent-based model is the first model that simulates human NCC and associated pathologies. It uses the output of another model, CystiAgent, which simulates the evolution of pig cysticercosis and human taeniasis, adding human and cyst agents, including a model of cyst location and stage, human symptoms, and treatment. CystiHuman also accounts for delays in the appearance of NCC-related symptoms. It comprises three modules detailing cyst development, seizure probability and timing, and intracranial hypertension/hydrocephalus, respectively. It has been implemented in Java MASON and calibrated in three endemic villages in Peru, then applied to another village (Rica Playa) to compare simulation results with field data in that village. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Despite limitations in available field data, parameter values found through calibration are plausible and simulated outcomes in Rica Playa are close to actual values for NCC prevalence and the way it increases with age and cases with single lesions. Initial simulations further suggest that short-term interventions followed by a rapid increase in taeniasis prevalence back to original levels may have limited impacts on NCC prevalence.

While much effort has gone into building predictive models of the COVID-19 pandemic, some have argued that early exponential growth combined with the stochastic nature of epidemics make the long-term prediction of contagion trajectories impossible. We conduct two complementary studies to assess model features supporting better long-term predictions. First, we leverage the diverse models contributing to the CDC repository of COVID-19 USA death projections to identify factors associated with prediction accuracy across different projection horizons. We find that better long-term predictions correlate with: (1) capturing the physics of transmission (instead of using black-box models); (2) projecting human behavioral reactions to an evolving pandemic; and (3) resetting state variables to account for randomness not captured in the model before starting projection. Second, we introduce a very simple model, SEIRb, that incorporates these features, and few other nuances, offers informative predictions for as far as 20-weeks ahead, with accuracy comparable with the best models in the CDC set. Key to the long-term predictive power of multi-wave COVID-19 trajectories is capturing behavioral responses endogenously: balancing feedbacks where the perceived risk of death continuously changes transmission rates through the adoption and relaxation of various Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs).

Research in human-associated microbiomes often involves the analysis of taxonomic count tables generated via high-throughput sequencing. It is difficult to apply statistical tools as the data is high-dimensional, sparse, and compositional. An approachable way to alleviate high-dimensionality and sparsity is to aggregate variables into pre-defined sets. Set-based analysis is ubiquitous in the genomics literature and has demonstrable impact on improving interpretability and power of downstream analysis. Unfortunately, there is a lack of sophisticated set-based analysis methods specific to microbiome taxonomic data, where current practice often employs abundance summation as a technique for aggregation. This approach prevents comparison across sets of different sizes, does not preserve inter-sample distances, and amplifies protocol bias. Here, we attempt to fill this gap with a new single-sample taxon enrichment method that uses a novel log-ratio formulation based on the competitive null hypothesis commonly used in the enrichment analysis literature. Our approach, titled competitive balances for taxonomic enrichment analysis (CBEA), generates sample-specific enrichment scores as the scaled log-ratio of the subcomposition defined by taxa within a set and the subcomposition defined by its complement. We provide sample-level significance testing by estimating an empirical null distribution of our test statistic with valid p-values. Herein, we demonstrate, using both real data applications and simulations, that CBEA controls for type I error, even under high sparsity and high inter-taxa correlation scenarios. Additionally, CBEA provides informative scores that can be inputs to downstream analyses such as prediction tasks.

Natural Killer (NK) cells provide key resistance against viral infections and tumors. A diverse set of activating and inhibitory NK cell receptors (NKRs) interact with cognate ligands presented by target host cells, where integration of dueling signals initiated by the ligand-NKR interactions determines NK cell activation or tolerance. Imaging experiments over decades have shown micron and sub-micron scale spatial clustering of activating and inhibitory NKRs. The mechanistic roles of these clusters in affecting downstream signaling and activation are often unclear. To this end, we developed a predictive in silico framework by combining spatially resolved mechanistic agent based modeling, published TIRF imaging data, and parameter estimation to determine mechanisms by which formation and spatial movements of activating NKG2D microclusters affect early time NKG2D signaling kinetics in a human cell line NKL. We show co-clustering of NKG2D and the guanosine nucleotide exchange factor Vav1 in NKG2D microclusters plays a dominant role over ligand (ULBP3) rebinding in increasing production of phospho-Vav1(pVav1), an activation marker of early NKG2D signaling. The in silico model successfully predicts several scenarios of inhibition of NKG2D signaling and time course of NKG2D spatial clustering over a short (~3 min) interval. Modeling shows the presence of a spatial positive feedback relating formation and centripetal movements of NKG2D microclusters, and pVav1 production offers flexibility towards suppression of activating signals by inhibitory KIR ligands organized in inhomogeneous spatial patterns (e.g., a ring). Our in silico framework marks a major improvement in developing spatiotemporal signaling models with quantitatively estimated model parameters using imaging data.

The motility of neutrophils and their ability to sense and to react to chemoattractants in their environment are of central importance for the innate immunity. Neutrophils are guided towards sites of inflammation following the activation of G-protein coupled chemoattractant receptors such as CXCR2 whose signaling strongly depends on the activity of Ca2+ permeable TRPC6 channels. It is the aim of this study to analyze data sets obtained in vitro (murine neutrophils) and in vivo (zebrafish neutrophils) with a stochastic mathematical model to gain deeper insight into the underlying mechanisms. The model is based on the analysis of trajectories of individual neutrophils. Bayesian data analysis, including the covariances of positions for fractional Brownian motion as well as for exponentially and power-law tempered model variants, allows the estimation of parameters and model selection. Our model-based analysis reveals that wildtype neutrophils show pure superdiffusive fractional Brownian motion. This so-called anomalous dynamics is characterized by temporal long-range correlations for the movement into the direction of the chemotactic CXCL1 gradient. Pure superdiffusion is absent vertically to this gradient. This points to an asymmetric 'memory' of the migratory machinery, which is found both in vitro and in vivo. CXCR2 blockade and TRPC6-knockout cause tempering of temporal correlations in the chemotactic gradient. This can be interpreted as a progressive loss of memory, which leads to a marked reduction of chemotaxis and search efficiency of neutrophils. In summary, our findings indicate that spatially differential regulation of anomalous dynamics appears to play a central role in guiding efficient chemotactic behavior.

A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is the limiting of in-person contacts. However, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible for the many disabled people who do not live in care facilities but still require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living. We seek to determine which interventions can best prevent infections of disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model that includes susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatically ill, hospitalized, and removed/recovered individuals. The networks on which we simulate disease spread incorporate heterogeneity in the risk levels of different types of interactions, time-dependent lockdown and reopening measures, and interaction distributions for four different groups (caregivers, disabled people, essential workers, and the general population). Of these groups, we find that the probability of becoming infected is largest for caregivers and second largest for disabled people. Consistent with this finding, our analysis of network structure illustrates that caregivers have the largest modal eigenvector centrality of the four groups. We find that two interventions-contact-limiting by all groups and mask-wearing by disabled people and caregivers-most reduce the number of infections in disabled and caregiver populations. We also test which group of people spreads COVID-19 most readily by seeding infections in a subset of each group and comparing the total number of infections as the disease spreads. We find that caregivers are the most potent spreaders of COVID-19, particularly to other caregivers and to disabled people. We test where to use limited infection-blocking vaccine doses most effectively and find that (1) vaccinating caregivers better protects disabled people from infection than vaccinating the general population or essential workers and that (2) vaccinating caregivers protects disabled people from infection about as effectively as vaccinating disabled people themselves. Our results highlight the potential effectiveness of mask-wearing, contact-limiting throughout society, and strategic vaccination for limiting the exposure of disabled people and their caregivers to COVID-19.

Social insect colonies use negative as well as positive feedback signals to regulate foraging behaviour. In ants and bees individual foragers have been observed to use negative pheromones or mechano-auditory signals to indicate that forage sources are not ideal, for example being unrewarded, crowded, or dangerous. Here we propose an additional function for negative feedback signals during foraging, variance reduction. We show that while on average populations will converge to desired distributions over forage patches both with and without negative feedback signals, in small populations negative feedback reduces variation around the target distribution compared to the use of positive feedback alone. Our results are independent of the nature of the target distribution, providing it can be achieved by foragers collecting only local information. Since robustness is a key aim for biological systems, and deviation from target foraging distributions may be costly, we argue that this could be a further important and hitherto overlooked reason that negative feedback signals are used by foraging social insects.

Macroscopic oscillations in the brain have been observed to be involved in many cognitive tasks but their role is not completely understood. One of the suggested functions of the oscillations is to dynamically modulate communication between neural circuits. The Communication Through Coherence (CTC) theory proposes that oscillations reflect rhythmic changes in excitability of the neuronal populations. Thus, populations need to be properly phase-locked so that input volleys arrive at the peaks of excitability of the receiving population to communicate effectively. Here, we present a modeling study to explore synchronization between neuronal circuits connected with unidirectional projections. We consider an Excitatory-Inhibitory (E-I) network of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons modeling a Pyramidal-Interneuronal Network Gamma (PING) rhythm. The network receives an external periodic input from either one or two sources, simulating the inputs from other oscillating neural groups. We use recently developed mean-field models which provide an exact description of the macroscopic activity of the spiking network. This low-dimensional mean field model allows us to use tools from bifurcation theory to identify the phase-locked states between the input and the target population as a function of the amplitude, frequency and coherence of the inputs. We identify the conditions for optimal phase-locking and effective communication. We find that inputs with high coherence can entrain the network for a wider range of frequencies. Besides, faster oscillatory inputs than the intrinsic network gamma cycle show more effective communication than inputs with similar frequency. Our analysis further shows that the entrainment of the network by inputs with higher frequency is more robust to distractors, thus giving them an advantage to entrain the network and communicate effectively. Finally, we show that pulsatile inputs can switch between attended inputs in selective attention.

The evolutionary variability of a protein's residues is highly dependent on protein region and function. Solvent-exposed residues, excluding those at interaction interfaces, are more variable than buried residues whereas active site residues are considered to be conserved. The abovementioned rules apply also to α/β-hydrolase fold proteins-one of the oldest and the biggest superfamily of enzymes with buried active sites equipped with tunnels linking the reaction site with the exterior. We selected soluble epoxide hydrolases as representative of this family to conduct the first systematic study on the evolution of tunnels. We hypothesised that tunnels are lined by mostly conserved residues, and are equipped with a number of specific variable residues that are able to respond to evolutionary pressure. The hypothesis was confirmed, and we suggested a general and detailed way of the tunnels' evolution analysis based on entropy values calculated for tunnels' residues. We also found three different cases of entropy distribution among tunnel-lining residues. These observations can be applied for protein reengineering mimicking the natural evolution process. We propose a 'perforation' mechanism for new tunnels design via the merging of internal cavities or protein surface perforation. Based on the literature data, such a strategy of new tunnel design could significantly improve the enzyme's performance and can be applied widely for enzymes with buried active sites.

Genomewide association studies (GWAS) have identified a large number of loci associated with neuropsychiatric traits, however, understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying these loci remains difficult. To help prioritize causal variants and interpret their functions, computational methods have been developed to predict regulatory effects of non-coding variants. An emerging approach to variant annotation is deep learning models that predict regulatory functions from DNA sequences alone. While such models have been trained on large publicly available dataset such as ENCODE, neuropsychiatric trait-related cell types are under-represented in these datasets, thus there is an urgent need of better tools and resources to annotate variant functions in such cellular contexts. To fill this gap, we collected a large collection of neurodevelopment-related cell/tissue types, and trained deep Convolutional Neural Networks (ResNet) using such data. Furthermore, our model, called MetaChrom, borrows information from public epigenomic consortium to improve the accuracy via transfer learning. We show that MetaChrom is substantially better in predicting experimentally determined chromatin accessibility variants than popular variant annotation tools such as CADD and delta-SVM. By combining GWAS data with MetaChrom predictions, we prioritized 31 SNPs for Schizophrenia, suggesting potential risk genes and the biological contexts where they act. In summary, MetaChrom provides functional annotations of any DNA variants in the neuro-development context and the general method of MetaChrom can also be extended to other disease-related cell or tissue types.

Inferring protein-protein interactions from sequences is an important task in computational biology. Recent methods based on Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA) or Mutual Information (MI) allow to find interaction partners among paralogs of two protein families. Does successful inference mainly rely on correlations from structural contacts or from phylogeny, or both? Do these two types of signal combine constructively or hinder each other? To address these questions, we generate and analyze synthetic data produced using a minimal model that allows us to control the amounts of structural constraints and phylogeny. We show that correlations from these two sources combine constructively to increase the performance of partner inference by DCA or MI. Furthermore, signal from phylogeny can rescue partner inference when signal from contacts becomes less informative, including in the realistic case where inter-protein contacts are restricted to a small subset of sites. We also demonstrate that DCA-inferred couplings between non-contact pairs of sites improve partner inference in the presence of strong phylogeny, while deteriorating it otherwise. Moreover, restricting to non-contact pairs of sites preserves inference performance in the presence of strong phylogeny. In a natural data set, as well as in realistic synthetic data based on it, we find that non-contact pairs of sites contribute positively to partner inference performance, and that restricting to them preserves performance, evidencing an important role of phylogeny.

We analyze the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under an increasing number of vaccinations in Germany. For the spread of SARS-CoV-2 we employ a SIR-type model that accounts for age-dependence and includes realistic contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of NPIs occurs on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. We account for spatial heterogeneity and commuting activities in between regions in Germany, and the testing of commuters is considered as a further NPI. We include the ongoing vaccination process and analyze the effect of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is considered to be 40%-60% more infectious then the currently dominant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. We explore different opening scenarios under the ongoing vaccination process by assuming that local restrictions are either lifted in early July or August with or without continued wearing of masks and testing. Our results indicate that we can counteract the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 despite the Delta variant with appropriate timing for the relaxation of NPIs. In all cases, however, school children are hit the hardest.

Knee osteoarthritis is a progressive disease mediated by high joint loads. Foot progression angle modifications that reduce the knee adduction moment (KAM), a surrogate of knee loading, have demonstrated efficacy in alleviating pain and improving function. Although changes to the foot progression angle are overall beneficial, KAM reductions are not consistent across patients. Moreover, customized interventions are time-consuming and require instrumentation not commonly available in the clinic. We present a regression model that uses minimal clinical data-a set of six features easily obtained in the clinic-to predict the extent of first peak KAM reduction after toe-in gait retraining. For such a model to generalize, the training data must be large and variable. Given the lack of large public datasets that contain different gaits for the same patient, we generated this dataset synthetically. Insights learned from a ground-truth dataset with both baseline and toe-in gait trials (N = 12) enabled the creation of a large (N = 138) synthetic dataset for training the predictive model. On a test set of data collected by a separate research group (N = 15), the first peak KAM reduction was predicted with a mean absolute error of 0.134% body weight * height (%BW*HT). This error is smaller than the standard deviation of the first peak KAM during baseline walking averaged across test subjects (0.306%BW*HT). This work demonstrates the feasibility of training predictive models with synthetic data and provides clinicians with a new tool to predict the outcome of patient-specific gait retraining without requiring gait lab instrumentation.

Characterising gene function for the ever-increasing number and diversity of species with annotated genomes relies almost entirely on computational prediction methods. These software are also numerous and diverse, each with different strengths and weaknesses as revealed through community benchmarking efforts. Meta-predictors that assess consensus and conflict from individual algorithms should deliver enhanced functional annotations. To exploit the benefits of meta-approaches, we developed CrowdGO, an open-source consensus-based Gene Ontology (GO) term meta-predictor that employs machine learning models with GO term semantic similarities and information contents. By re-evaluating each gene-term annotation, a consensus dataset is produced with high-scoring confident annotations and low-scoring rejected annotations. Applying CrowdGO to results from a deep learning-based, a sequence similarity-based, and two protein domain-based methods, delivers consensus annotations with improved precision and recall. Furthermore, using standard evaluation measures CrowdGO performance matches that of the community's best performing individual methods. CrowdGO therefore offers a model-informed approach to leverage strengths of individual predictors and produce comprehensive and accurate gene functional annotations.

Myeloid-derived monocyte and macrophages are key cells in the bone that contribute to remodeling and injury repair. However, their temporal polarization status and control of bone-resorbing osteoclasts and bone-forming osteoblasts responses is largely unknown. In this study, we focused on two aspects of monocyte/macrophage dynamics and polarization states over time: 1) the injury-triggered pro- and anti-inflammatory monocytes/macrophages temporal profiles, 2) the contributions of pro- versus anti-inflammatory monocytes/macrophages in coordinating healing response. Bone healing is a complex multicellular dynamic process. While traditional in vitro and in vivo experimentation may capture the behavior of select populations with high resolution, they cannot simultaneously track the behavior of multiple populations. To address this, we have used an integrated coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs)-based framework describing multiple cellular species to in vivo bone injury data in order to identify and test various hypotheses regarding bone cell populations dynamics. Our approach allowed us to infer several biological insights including, but not limited to,: 1) anti-inflammatory macrophages are key for early osteoclast inhibition and pro-inflammatory macrophage suppression, 2) pro-inflammatory macrophages are involved in osteoclast bone resorptive activity, whereas osteoblasts promote osteoclast differentiation, 3) Pro-inflammatory monocytes/macrophages rise during two expansion waves, which can be explained by the anti-inflammatory macrophages-mediated inhibition phase between the two waves. In addition, we further tested the robustness of the mathematical model by comparing simulation results to an independent experimental dataset. Taken together, this novel comprehensive mathematical framework allowed us to identify biological mechanisms that best recapitulate bone injury data and that explain the coupled cellular population dynamics involved in the process. Furthermore, our hypothesis testing methodology could be used in other contexts to decipher mechanisms in complex multicellular processes.

Mutations to the human kinome are known to play causal roles in cancer. The kinome regulates numerous cell processes including growth, proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis. In addition to aberrant expression, aberrant alternative splicing of cancer-driver genes is receiving increased attention as it could lead to loss or gain of functional domains, altering a kinase's downstream impact. The present study quantifies changes in gene expression and isoform ratios in the kinome of metastatic melanoma cells relative to primary tumors. We contrast 538 total kinases and 3,040 known kinase isoforms between 103 primary tumor and 367 metastatic samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We find strong evidence of differential expression (DE) at the gene level in 123 kinases (23%). Additionally, of the 468 kinases with alternative isoforms, 60 (13%) had significant difference in isoform ratios (DIR). Notably, DE and DIR have little correlation; for instance, although DE highlights enrichment in receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs), DIR identifies altered splicing in non-receptor tyrosine kinases (nRTKs). Using exon junction mapping, we identify five examples of splicing events favored in metastatic samples. We demonstrate differential apoptosis and protein localization between SLK isoforms in metastatic melanoma. We cluster isoform expression data and identify subgroups that correlate with genomic subtypes and anatomic tumor locations. Notably, distinct DE and DIR patterns separate samples with BRAF hotspot mutations and (N/K/H)RAS hotspot mutations, the latter of which lacks effective kinase inhibitor treatments. DE in RAS mutants concentrates in CMGC kinases (a group including cell cycle and splicing regulators) rather than RTKs as in BRAF mutants. Furthermore, isoforms in the RAS kinase subgroup show enrichment for cancer-related processes such as angiogenesis and cell migration. Our results reveal a new approach to therapeutic target identification and demonstrate how different mutational subtypes may respond differently to treatments highlighting possible new driver events in cancer.

Humans rely heavily on the shape of objects to recognise them. Recently, it has been argued that Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can also show a shape-bias, provided their learning environment contains this bias. This has led to the proposal that CNNs provide good mechanistic models of shape-bias and, more generally, human visual processing. However, it is also possible that humans and CNNs show a shape-bias for very different reasons, namely, shape-bias in humans may be a consequence of architectural and cognitive constraints whereas CNNs show a shape-bias as a consequence of learning the statistics of the environment. We investigated this question by exploring shape-bias in humans and CNNs when they learn in a novel environment. We observed that, in this new environment, humans (i) focused on shape and overlooked many non-shape features, even when non-shape features were more diagnostic, (ii) learned based on only one out of multiple predictive features, and (iii) failed to learn when global features, such as shape, were absent. This behaviour contrasted with the predictions of a statistical inference model with no priors, showing the strong role that shape-bias plays in human feature selection. It also contrasted with CNNs that (i) preferred to categorise objects based on non-shape features, and (ii) increased reliance on these non-shape features as they became more predictive. This was the case even when the CNN was pre-trained to have a shape-bias and the convolutional backbone was frozen. These results suggest that shape-bias has a different source in humans and CNNs: while learning in CNNs is driven by the statistical properties of the environment, humans are highly constrained by their previous biases, which suggests that cognitive constraints play a key role in how humans learn to recognise novel objects.

Phosphoproteomic experiments routinely observe thousands of phosphorylation sites. To understand the intracellular signaling processes that generated this data, one or more causal protein kinases must be assigned to each phosphosite. However, limited knowledge of kinase specificity typically restricts assignments to a small subset of a kinome. Starting from a statistical model of a high-throughput, in vitro kinase-substrate assay, I have developed an approach to high-coverage, multi-label kinase-substrate assignment called IV-KAPhE ("In vivo-Kinase Assignment for Phosphorylation Evidence"). Tested on human data, IV-KAPhE outperforms other methods of similar scope. Such computational methods generally predict a densely connected kinase-substrate network, with most sites targeted by multiple kinases, pointing either to unaccounted-for biochemical constraints or significant cross-talk and signaling redundancy. I show that such predictions can potentially identify biased kinase-site misannotations within families of closely related kinase isozymes and they provide a robust basis for kinase activity analysis.

House mice communicate through ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs), which are above the range of human hearing (>20 kHz), and several automated methods have been developed for USV detection and classification. Here we evaluate their advantages and disadvantages in a full, systematic comparison, while also presenting a new approach. This study aims to 1) determine the most efficient USV detection tool among the existing methods, and 2) develop a classification model that is more generalizable than existing methods. In both cases, we aim to minimize the user intervention required for processing new data. We compared the performance of four detection methods in an out-of-the-box approach, pretrained DeepSqueak detector, MUPET, USVSEG, and the Automatic Mouse Ultrasound Detector (A-MUD). We also compared these methods to human visual or 'manual' classification (ground truth) after assessing its reliability. A-MUD and USVSEG outperformed the other methods in terms of true positive rates using default and adjusted settings, respectively, and A-MUD outperformed USVSEG when false detection rates were also considered. For automating the classification of USVs, we developed BootSnap for supervised classification, which combines bootstrapping on Gammatone Spectrograms and Convolutional Neural Networks algorithms with Snapshot ensemble learning. It successfully classified calls into 12 types, including a new class of false positives that is useful for detection refinement. BootSnap outperformed the pretrained and retrained state-of-the-art tool, and thus it is more generalizable. BootSnap is freely available for scientific use.

The nucleocapsid (N) protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causal agent of COVID-19, is a multifunction phosphoprotein that plays critical roles in the virus life cycle, including transcription and packaging of the viral RNA. To play such diverse roles, the N protein has two globular RNA-binding modules, the N- (NTD) and C-terminal (CTD) domains, which are connected by an intrinsically disordered region. Despite the wealth of structural data available for the isolated NTD and CTD, how these domains are arranged in the full-length protein and how the oligomerization of N influences its RNA-binding activity remains largely unclear. Herein, using experimental data from electron microscopy and biochemical/biophysical techniques combined with molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations, we show that, in the absence of RNA, the N protein formed structurally dynamic dimers, with the NTD and CTD arranged in extended conformations. However, in the presence of RNA, the N protein assumed a more compact conformation where the NTD and CTD are packed together. We also provided an octameric model for the full-length N bound to RNA that is consistent with electron microscopy images of the N protein in the presence of RNA. Together, our results shed new light on the dynamics and higher-order oligomeric structure of this versatile protein.

In recent years, a wide variety of mentorship programmes targeting issues that cannot be addressed through traditional teaching and learning methods alone have been developed. Mentoring plays significant roles in the growth and development of both mentors and mentees, and the positive impacts of mentoring have been well documented. Mentorship programmes are therefore increasingly being implemented in a wide variety of fields by organisations, academic institutes, businesses, and governments. While there is a growing body of literature on mentoring and mentorship programmes, gaining a clear overview of the field is often challenging. In this article, we therefore provide a concise summary of recommendations to consider when designing and establishing mentorship programmes. These recommendations are based on the collective knowledge and experiences of 4 different emerging and established mentorship programmes and can be adapted across various mentorship settings or contexts.

Viral superinfection occurs when multiple viral particles subsequently infect the same host. In nature, several viral species are found to have evolved diverse mechanisms to prevent superinfection (superinfection exclusion) but how this strategic choice impacts the fate of mutations in the viral population remains unclear. Using stochastic simulations, we find that genetic drift is suppressed when superinfection occurs, thus facilitating the fixation of beneficial mutations and the removal of deleterious ones. Interestingly, we also find that the competitive (dis)advantage associated with variations in life history parameters is not necessarily captured by the viral growth rate for either infection strategy. Putting these together, we then show that a mutant with superinfection exclusion will easily overtake a superinfecting population even if the latter has a much higher growth rate. Our findings suggest that while superinfection exclusion can negatively impact the long-term adaptation of a viral population, in the short-term it is ultimately a winning strategy.