Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimize wealth over time, agents should adapt their utility function according to the dynamical setting they face. Linear utility is optimal for additive dynamics, whereas logarithmic utility is optimal for multiplicative dynamics. Whether humans approximate time optimal behavior across different dynamics is unknown. Here we compare the effects of additive versus multiplicative gamble dynamics on risky choice. We show that utility functions are modulated by gamble dynamics in ways not explained by prevailing decision theories. Instead, as predicted by time optimality, risk aversion increases under multiplicative dynamics, distributing close to the values that maximize the time average growth of in-game wealth. We suggest that our findings motivate a need for explicitly grounding theories of decision-making on ergodic considerations.

Accumulating evidence from human-based research has highlighted that the prevalent one-size-fits-all approach for neural and behavioral interventions is inefficient. This approach can benefit one individual, but be ineffective or even detrimental for another. Studying the efficacy of the large range of different parameters for different individuals is costly, time-consuming and requires a large sample size that makes such research impractical and hinders effective interventions. Here an active machine learning technique is presented across participants-personalized Bayesian optimization (pBO)-that searches available parameter combinations to optimize an intervention as a function of an individual's ability. This novel technique was utilized to identify transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) frequency and current strength combinations most likely to improve arithmetic performance, based on a subject's baseline arithmetic abilities. The pBO was performed across all subjects tested, building a model of subject performance, capable of recommending parameters for future subjects based on their baseline arithmetic ability. pBO successfully searches, learns, and recommends parameters for an effective neurointervention as supported by behavioral, simulation, and neural data. The application of pBO in human-based research opens up new avenues for personalized and more effective interventions, as well as discoveries of protocols for treatment and translation to other clinical and non-clinical domains.

Mathematical models of biochemical networks can largely facilitate the comprehension of the mechanisms at the basis of cellular processes, as well as the formulation of hypotheses that can be tested by means of targeted laboratory experiments. However, two issues might hamper the achievement of fruitful outcomes. On the one hand, detailed mechanistic models can involve hundreds or thousands of molecular species and their intermediate complexes, as well as hundreds or thousands of chemical reactions, a situation generally occurring in rule-based modeling. On the other hand, the computational analysis of a model typically requires the execution of a large number of simulations for its calibration, or to test the effect of perturbations. As a consequence, the computational capabilities of modern Central Processing Units can be easily overtaken, possibly making the modeling of biochemical networks a worthless or ineffective effort. To the aim of overcoming the limitations of the current state-of-the-art simulation approaches, we present in this paper FiCoS, a novel "black-box" deterministic simulator that effectively realizes both a fine-grained and a coarse-grained parallelization on Graphics Processing Units. In particular, FiCoS exploits two different integration methods, namely, the Dormand-Prince and the Radau IIA, to efficiently solve both non-stiff and stiff systems of coupled Ordinary Differential Equations. We tested the performance of FiCoS against different deterministic simulators, by considering models of increasing size and by running analyses with increasing computational demands. FiCoS was able to dramatically speedup the computations up to 855×, showing to be a promising solution for the simulation and analysis of large-scale models of complex biological processes.

Epidemiological models can provide the dynamic evolution of a pandemic but they are based on many assumptions and parameters that have to be adjusted over the time the pandemic lasts. However, often the available data are not sufficient to identify the model parameters and hence infer the unobserved dynamics. Here, we develop a general framework for building a trustworthy data-driven epidemiological model, consisting of a workflow that integrates data acquisition and event timeline, model development, identifiability analysis, sensitivity analysis, model calibration, model robustness analysis, and projection with uncertainties in different scenarios. In particular, we apply this framework to propose a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, including new compartments and model vaccination in order to project the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC). We find that we can uniquely estimate the model parameters and accurately project the daily new infection cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, in agreement with the available data from NYC's government's website. In addition, we employ the calibrated data-driven model to study the effects of vaccination and timing of reopening indoor dining in NYC.

BEEM-Static provides new opportunities for mining ecologically interpretable interactions and systems insights from the growing corpus of microbiome data.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic highlights the need for a detailed molecular understanding of protective antibody responses. This is underscored by the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Delta (B.1.617.2), some of which appear to be less effectively targeted by current monoclonal antibodies and vaccines. Here we report a high resolution and comprehensive map of antibody recognition of the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD), which is the target of most neutralizing antibodies, using computational structural analysis. With a dataset of nonredundant experimentally determined antibody-RBD structures, we classified antibodies by RBD residue binding determinants using unsupervised clustering. We also identified the energetic and conservation features of epitope residues and assessed the capacity of viral variant mutations to disrupt antibody recognition, revealing sets of antibodies predicted to effectively target recently described viral variants. This detailed structure-based reference of antibody RBD recognition signatures can inform therapeutic and vaccine design strategies.

We construct a recursive Bayesian smoother, termed EpiFilter, for estimating the effective reproduction number, R, from the incidence of an infectious disease in real time and retrospectively. Our approach borrows from Kalman filtering theory, is quick and easy to compute, generalisable, deterministic and unlike many current methods, requires no change-point or window size assumptions. We model R as a flexible, hidden Markov state process and exactly solve forward-backward algorithms, to derive R estimates that incorporate all available incidence information. This unifies and extends two popular methods, EpiEstim, which considers past incidence, and the Wallinga-Teunis method, which looks forward in time. We find that this combination of maximising information and minimising assumptions significantly reduces the bias and variance of R estimates. Moreover, these properties make EpiFilter more statistically robust in periods of low incidence, where several existing methods can become destabilised. As a result, EpiFilter offers improved inference of time-varying transmission patterns that are advantageous for assessing the risk of upcoming waves of infection or the influence of interventions, in real time and at various spatial scales.

Regulatory elements control gene expression through transcription initiation (promoters) and by enhancing transcription at distant regions (enhancers). Accurate identification of regulatory elements is fundamental for annotating genomes and understanding gene expression patterns. While there are many attempts to develop computational promoter and enhancer identification methods, reliable tools to analyze long genomic sequences are still lacking. Prediction methods often perform poorly on the genome-wide scale because the number of negatives is much higher than that in the training sets. To address this issue, we propose a dynamic negative set updating scheme with a two-model approach, using one model for scanning the genome and the other one for testing candidate positions. The developed method achieves good genome-level performance and maintains robust performance when applied to other vertebrate species, without re-training. Moreover, the unannotated predicted regulatory regions made on the human genome are enriched for disease-associated variants, suggesting them to be potentially true regulatory elements rather than false positives. We validated high scoring "false positive" predictions using reporter assay and all tested candidates were successfully validated, demonstrating the ability of our method to discover novel human regulatory regions.

Outbreak investigations use data from interviews, healthcare providers, laboratories and surveillance systems. However, integrated use of data from multiple sources requires a patchwork of software that present challenges in usability, interoperability, confidentiality, and cost. Rapid integration, visualization and analysis of data from multiple sources can guide effective public health interventions. We developed MicrobeTrace to facilitate rapid public health responses by overcoming barriers to data integration and exploration in molecular epidemiology. MicrobeTrace is a web-based, client-side, JavaScript application (https://microbetrace.cdc.gov) that runs in Chromium-based browsers and remains fully operational without an internet connection. Using publicly available data, we demonstrate the analysis of viral genetic distance networks and introduce a novel approach to minimum spanning trees that simplifies results. We also illustrate the potential utility of MicrobeTrace in support of contact tracing by analyzing and displaying data from an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in South Korea in early 2020. MicrobeTrace is developed and actively maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Users can email microbetrace@cdc.gov for support. The source code is available at https://github.com/cdcgov/microbetrace.

Chlamydia trachomatis is a common sexually transmitted infection that is associated with a range of serious reproductive tract sequelae including in women Pelvic Inflammatory Disease (PID), tubal factor infertility, and ectopic pregnancy. Ascension of the pathogen beyond the cervix and into the upper reproductive tract is thought to be necessary for these pathologies. However, Chlamydia trachomatis does not encode a mechanism for movement on its genome, and so the processes that facilitate ascension have not been elucidated. Here, we evaluate the factors that may influence chlamydial ascension in women. We constructed a mathematical model based on a set of stochastic dynamics to elucidate the moderating factors that might influence ascension of infections in the first month of an infection. In the simulations conducted from the stochastic model, 36% of infections ascended, but only 9% had more than 1000 bacteria ascend. The results of the simulations indicated that infectious load and the peristaltic contractions moderate ascension and are inter-related in impact. Smaller initial loads were much more likely to ascend. Ascension was found to be dependent on the neutrophil response. Overall, our results indicate that infectious load, menstrual cycle timing, and the neutrophil response are critical factors in chlamydial ascension in women.

Cell culture-derived defective interfering particles (DIPs) are considered for antiviral therapy due to their ability to inhibit influenza A virus (IAV) production. DIPs contain a large internal deletion in one of their eight viral RNAs (vRNAs) rendering them replication-incompetent. However, they can propagate alongside their homologous standard virus (STV) during infection in a competition for cellular and viral resources. So far, experimental and modeling studies for IAV have focused on either the intracellular or the cell population level when investigating the interaction of STVs and DIPs. To examine these levels simultaneously, we conducted a series of experiments using highly different multiplicities of infections for STVs and DIPs to characterize virus replication in Madin-Darby Canine Kidney suspension cells. At several time points post infection, we quantified virus titers, viable cell concentration, virus-induced apoptosis using imaging flow cytometry, and intracellular levels of vRNA and viral mRNA using real-time reverse transcription qPCR. Based on the obtained data, we developed a mathematical multiscale model of STV and DIP co-infection that describes dynamics closely for all scenarios with a single set of parameters. We show that applying high DIP concentrations can shut down STV propagation completely and prevent virus-induced apoptosis. Interestingly, the three observed viral mRNAs (full-length segment 1 and 5, defective interfering segment 1) accumulated to vastly different levels suggesting the interplay between an internal regulation mechanism and a growth advantage for shorter viral RNAs. Furthermore, model simulations predict that the concentration of DIPs should be at least 10000 times higher than that of STVs to prevent the spread of IAV. Ultimately, the model presented here supports a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between STVs and DIPs during co-infection providing an ideal platform for the prediction and optimization of vaccine manufacturing as well as DIP production for therapeutic use.

Coronary artery thrombosis is the major risk associated with Kawasaki disease (KD). Long-term management of KD patients with persistent aneurysms requires a thrombotic risk assessment and clinical decisions regarding the administration of anticoagulation therapy. Computational fluid dynamics has demonstrated that abnormal KD coronary artery hemodynamics can be associated with thrombosis. However, the underlying mechanisms of clot formation are not yet fully understood. Here we present a new model incorporating data from patient-specific simulated velocity fields to track platelet activation and accumulation. We use a system of Reaction-Advection-Diffusion equations solved with a stabilized finite element method to describe the evolution of non-activated platelets and activated platelet concentrations [AP], local concentrations of adenosine diphosphate (ADP) and poly-phosphate (PolyP). The activation of platelets is modeled as a function of shear-rate exposure and local concentration of agonists. We compared the distribution of activated platelets in a healthy coronary case and six cases with coronary artery aneurysms caused by KD, including three with confirmed thrombosis. Results show spatial correlation between regions of higher concentration of activated platelets and the reported location of the clot, suggesting predictive capabilities of this model towards identifying regions at high risk for thrombosis. Also, the concentration levels of ADP and PolyP in cases with confirmed thrombosis are higher than the reported critical values associated with platelet aggregation (ADP) and activation of the intrinsic coagulation pathway (PolyP). These findings suggest the potential initiation of a coagulation pathway even in the absence of an extrinsic factor. Finally, computational simulations show that in regions of flow stagnation, biochemical activation, as a result of local agonist concentration, is dominant. Identifying the leading factors to a pro-coagulant environment in each case-mechanical or biochemical-could help define improved strategies for thrombosis prevention tailored for each patient.

Update of medRxiv. 2020 Dec 26;:

The B cells in our body generate protective antibodies by introducing somatic hypermutations (SHM) into the variable region of immunoglobulin genes (IgVs). The mutations are generated by activation induced deaminase (AID) that converts cytosine to uracil in single stranded DNA (ssDNA) generated during transcription. Attempts have been made to correlate SHM with ssDNA using bisulfite to chemically convert cytosines that are accessible in the intact chromatin of mutating B cells. These studies have been complicated by using different definitions of "bisulfite accessible regions" (BARs). Recently, deep-sequencing has provided much larger datasets of such regions but computational methods are needed to enable this analysis. Here we leveraged the deep-sequencing approach with unique molecular identifiers and developed a novel Hidden Markov Model based Bayesian Segmentation algorithm to characterize the ssDNA regions in the IGHV4-34 gene of the human Ramos B cell line. Combining hierarchical clustering and our new Bayesian model, we identified recurrent BARs in certain subregions of both top and bottom strands of this gene. Using this new system, the average size of BARs is about 15 bp. We also identified potential G-quadruplex DNA structures in this gene and found that the BARs co-locate with G-quadruplex structures in the opposite strand. Using various correlation analyses, there is not a direct site-to-site relationship between the bisulfite accessible ssDNA and all sites of SHM but most of the highly AID mutated sites are within 15 bp of a BAR. In summary, we developed a novel platform to study single stranded DNA in chromatin at a base pair resolution that reveals potential relationships among BARs, SHM and G-quadruplexes. This platform could be applied to genome wide studies in the future.

Although combination antiretroviral therapies seem to be effective at controlling HIV-1 infections regardless of the viral subtype, there is increasing evidence for subtype-specific drug resistance mutations. The order and rates at which resistance mutations accumulate in different subtypes also remain poorly understood. Most of this knowledge is derived from studies of subtype B genotypes, despite not being the most abundant subtype worldwide. Here, we present a methodology for the comparison of mutational networks in different HIV-1 subtypes, based on Hidden Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (H-CBN), a probabilistic model for inferring mutational networks from cross-sectional genotype data. We introduce a Monte Carlo sampling scheme for learning H-CBN models for a larger number of resistance mutations and develop a statistical test to assess differences in the inferred mutational networks between two groups. We apply this method to infer the temporal progression of mutations conferring resistance to the protease inhibitor lopinavir in a large cross-sectional cohort of HIV-1 subtype C genotypes from South Africa, as well as to a data set of subtype B genotypes obtained from the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We find strong support for different initial mutational events in the protease, namely at residue 46 in subtype B and at residue 82 in subtype C. The inferred mutational networks for subtype B versus C are significantly different sharing only five constraints on the order of accumulating mutations with mutation at residue 54 as the parental event. The results also suggest that mutations can accumulate along various alternative paths within subtypes, as opposed to a unique total temporal ordering. Beyond HIV drug resistance, the statistical methodology is applicable more generally for the comparison of inferred mutational networks between any two groups.

Over-representation analysis (ORA) is one of the commonest pathway analysis approaches used for the functional interpretation of metabolomics datasets. Despite the widespread use of ORA in metabolomics, the community lacks guidelines detailing its best-practice use. Many factors have a pronounced impact on the results, but to date their effects have received little systematic attention. Using five publicly available datasets, we demonstrated that changes in parameters such as the background set, differential metabolite selection methods, and pathway database used can result in profoundly different ORA results. The use of a non-assay-specific background set, for example, resulted in large numbers of false-positive pathways. Pathway database choice, evaluated using three of the most popular metabolic pathway databases (KEGG, Reactome, and BioCyc), led to vastly different results in both the number and function of significantly enriched pathways. Factors that are specific to metabolomics data, such as the reliability of compound identification and the chemical bias of different analytical platforms also impacted ORA results. Simulated metabolite misidentification rates as low as 4% resulted in both gain of false-positive pathways and loss of truly significant pathways across all datasets. Our results have several practical implications for ORA users, as well as those using alternative pathway analysis methods. We offer a set of recommendations for the use of ORA in metabolomics, alongside a set of minimal reporting guidelines, as a first step towards the standardisation of pathway analysis in metabolomics.

Electrical stimulation and block of peripheral nerves hold great promise for treatment of a range of disease and disorders, but promising results from preclinical studies often fail to translate to successful clinical therapies. Differences in neural anatomy across species require different electrodes and stimulation parameters to achieve equivalent nerve responses, and accounting for the consequences of these factors is difficult. We describe the implementation, validation, and application of a standardized, modular, and scalable computational modeling pipeline for biophysical simulations of electrical activation and block of nerve fibers within peripheral nerves. The ASCENT (Automated Simulations to Characterize Electrical Nerve Thresholds) pipeline provides a suite of built-in capabilities for user control over the entire workflow, including libraries for parts to assemble electrodes, electrical properties of biological materials, previously published fiber models, and common stimulation waveforms. We validated the accuracy of ASCENT calculations, verified usability in beta release, and provide several compelling examples of ASCENT-implemented models. ASCENT will enable the reproducibility of simulation data, and it will be used as a component of integrated simulations with other models (e.g., organ system models), to interpret experimental results, and to design experimental and clinical interventions for the advancement of peripheral nerve stimulation therapies.

Human Papillomaviruses (HPV) are one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted infections (STI) and the most oncogenic viruses known to humans. The vast majority of HPV infections clear in less than 3 years, but the underlying mechanisms, especially the involvement of the immune response, are still poorly known. Building on earlier work stressing the importance of randomness in the type of cell divisions in the clearance of HPV infection, we develop a stochastic mathematical model of HPV dynamics that combines the previous aspect with an explicit description of the intracellular level. We show that the random partitioning of virus episomes upon stem cell division and the occurrence of symmetric divisions dramatically affect viral persistence. These results call for more detailed within-host studies to better understand the relative importance of stochasticity and immunity in HPV infection clearance.

In behavioral learning, reward-related events are encoded into phasic dopamine (DA) signals in the brain. In particular, unexpected reward omission leads to a phasic decrease in DA (DA dip) in the striatum, which triggers long-term potentiation (LTP) in DA D2 receptor (D2R)-expressing spiny-projection neurons (D2 SPNs). While this LTP is required for reward discrimination, it is unclear how such a short DA-dip signal (0.5-2 s) is transferred through intracellular signaling to the coincidence detector, adenylate cyclase (AC). In the present study, we built a computational model of D2 signaling to determine conditions for the DA-dip detection. The DA dip can be detected only if the basal DA signal sufficiently inhibits AC, and the DA-dip signal sufficiently disinhibits AC. We found that those two requirements were simultaneously satisfied only if two key molecules, D2R and regulators of G protein signaling (RGS) were balanced within a certain range; this balance has indeed been observed in experimental studies. We also found that high level of RGS was required for the detection of a 0.5-s short DA dip, and the analytical solutions for these requirements confirmed their universality. The imbalance between D2R and RGS is associated with schizophrenia and DYT1 dystonia, both of which are accompanied by abnormal striatal LTP. Our simulations suggest that D2 SPNs in patients with schizophrenia and DYT1 dystonia cannot detect short DA dips. We finally discussed that such psychiatric and movement disorders can be understood in terms of the imbalance between D2R and RGS.

Numerous stages of organismal development rely on the cellular interpretation of gradients of secreted morphogens including members of the Bone Morphogenetic Protein (BMP) family through transmembrane receptors. Early gradients of BMPs drive dorsal/ventral patterning throughout the animal kingdom in both vertebrates and invertebrates. Growing evidence in Drosophila, zebrafish, murine and other systems suggests that BMP ligand heterodimers are the primary BMP signaling ligand, even in systems in which mixtures of BMP homodimers and heterodimers are present. Signaling by heterodimers occurs through a hetero-tetrameric receptor complex comprising of two distinct type one BMP receptors and two type II receptors. To understand the system dynamics and determine whether kinetic assembly of heterodimer-heterotetramer BMP complexes is favored, as compared to other plausible BMP ligand-receptor configurations, we developed a kinetic model for BMP tetramer formation based on current measurements for binding rates and affinities. We find that contrary to a common hypothesis, heterodimer-heterotetramer formation is not kinetically favored over the formation of homodimer-tetramer complexes under physiological conditions of receptor and ligand concentrations and therefore other mechanisms, potentially including differential kinase activities of the formed heterotetramer complexes, must be the cause of heterodimer-heterotetramer signaling primacy. Further, although BMP complex assembly favors homodimer and homomeric complex formation over a wide range of parameters, ignoring these signals and instead relying on the heterodimer improves the range of morphogen interpretation in a broad set of conditions, suggesting a performance advantage for heterodimer signaling in patterning multiple cell types in a gradient.

We show how anomalous time reversal of stimuli and their associated responses can exist in very small connectionist models. These networks are built from dynamical toy model neurons which adhere to a minimal set of biologically plausible properties. The appearance of a "ghost" response, temporally and spatially located in between responses caused by actual stimuli, as in the phi phenomenon, is demonstrated in a similar small network, where it is caused by priming and long-distance feedforward paths. We then demonstrate that the color phi phenomenon can be present in an echo state network, a recurrent neural network, without explicitly training for the presence of the effect, such that it emerges as an artifact of the dynamical processing. Our results suggest that the color phi phenomenon might simply be a feature of the inherent dynamical and nonlinear sensory processing in the brain and in and of itself is not related to consciousness.

Fluid-filled biological cavities are ubiquitous, but their collective dynamics has remained largely unexplored from a physical perspective. Based on experimental observations in early embryos, we propose a model where a cavity forms through the coarsening of myriad of pressurized micrometric lumens, that interact by ion and fluid exchanges through the intercellular space. Performing extensive numerical simulations, we find that hydraulic fluxes lead to a self-similar coarsening of lumens in time, characterized by a robust dynamic scaling exponent. The collective dynamics is primarily controlled by hydraulic fluxes, which stem from lumen pressures differences and are dampened by water permeation through the membrane. Passive osmotic heterogeneities play, on the contrary, a minor role on cavity formation but active ion pumping can largely modify the coarsening dynamics: it prevents the lumen network from a collective collapse and gives rise to a novel coalescence-dominated regime exhibiting a distinct scaling law. Interestingly, we prove numerically that spatially biasing ion pumping may be sufficient to position the cavity, suggesting a novel mode of symmetry breaking to control tissue patterning. Providing generic testable predictions, our model forms a comprehensive theoretical basis for hydro-osmotic interaction between biological cavities, that shall find wide applications in embryo and tissue morphogenesis.

In visual search tasks, repeating features or the position of the target results in faster response times. Such inter-trial 'priming' effects occur not just for repetitions from the immediately preceding trial but also from trials further back. A paradigm known to produce particularly long-lasting inter-trial effects-of the target-defining feature, target position, and response (feature)-is the 'priming of pop-out' (PoP) paradigm, which typically uses sparse search displays and random swapping across trials of target- and distractor-defining features. However, the mechanisms underlying these inter-trial effects are still not well understood. To address this, we applied a modeling framework combining an evidence accumulation (EA) model with different computational updating rules of the model parameters (i.e., the drift rate and starting point of EA) for different aspects of stimulus history, to data from a (previously published) PoP study that had revealed significant inter-trial effects from several trials back for repetitions of the target color, the target position, and (response-critical) target feature. By performing a systematic model comparison, we aimed to determine which EA model parameter and which updating rule for that parameter best accounts for each inter-trial effect and the associated n-back temporal profile. We found that, in general, our modeling framework could accurately predict the n-back temporal profiles. Further, target color- and position-based inter-trial effects were best understood as arising from redistribution of a limited-capacity weight resource which determines the EA rate. In contrast, response-based inter-trial effects were best explained by a bias of the starting point towards the response associated with a previous target; this bias appeared largely tied to the position of the target. These findings elucidate how our cognitive system continually tracks, and updates an internal predictive model of, a number of separable stimulus and response parameters in order to optimize task performance.

Insights from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), as well as recordings of large numbers of neurons, reveal that many cognitive, emotional, and motor functions depend on the multivariate interactions of brain signals. To decode brain dynamics, we propose an architecture based on recurrent neural networks to uncover distributed spatiotemporal signatures. We demonstrate the potential of the approach using human fMRI data during movie-watching data and a continuous experimental paradigm. The model was able to learn spatiotemporal patterns that supported 15-way movie-clip classification (∼90%) at the level of brain regions, and binary classification of experimental conditions (∼60%) at the level of voxels. The model was also able to learn individual differences in measures of fluid intelligence and verbal IQ at levels comparable to that of existing techniques. We propose a dimensionality reduction approach that uncovers low-dimensional trajectories and captures essential informational (i.e., classification related) properties of brain dynamics. Finally, saliency maps and lesion analysis were employed to characterize brain-region/voxel importance, and uncovered how dynamic but consistent changes in fMRI activation influenced decoding performance. When applied at the level of voxels, our framework implements a dynamic version of multivariate pattern analysis. Our approach provides a framework for visualizing, analyzing, and discovering dynamic spatially distributed brain representations during naturalistic conditions.

The bacterial elongation factor RfaH promotes the expression of virulence factors by specifically binding to RNA polymerases (RNAP) paused at a DNA signal. This behavior is unlike that of its paralog NusG, the major representative of the protein family to which RfaH belongs. Both proteins have an N-terminal domain (NTD) bearing an RNAP binding site, yet NusG C-terminal domain (CTD) is folded as a β-barrel while RfaH CTD is forming an α-hairpin blocking such site. Upon recognition of the specific DNA exposed by RNAP, RfaH is activated via interdomain dissociation and complete CTD structural rearrangement into a β-barrel structurally identical to NusG CTD. Although RfaH transformation has been extensively characterized computationally, little attention has been given to the role of the NTD in the fold-switching process, as its structure remains unchanged. Here, we used Associative Water-mediated Structure and Energy Model (AWSEM) molecular dynamics to characterize the transformation of RfaH, spotlighting the sequence-dependent effects of NTD on CTD fold stabilization. Umbrella sampling simulations guided by native contacts recapitulate the thermodynamic equilibrium experimentally observed for RfaH and its isolated CTD. Temperature refolding simulations of full-length RfaH show a high success towards α-folded CTD, whereas the NTD interferes with βCTD folding, becoming trapped in a β-barrel intermediate. Meanwhile, NusG CTD refolding is unaffected by the presence of RfaH NTD, showing that these NTD-CTD interactions are encoded in RfaH sequence. Altogether, these results suggest that the NTD of RfaH favors the α-folded RfaH by specifically orienting the αCTD upon interdomain binding and by favoring β-barrel rupture into an intermediate from which fold-switching proceeds.

The dynamics by which polymeric protein filaments divide in the presence of negligible growth, for example due to the depletion of free monomeric precursors, can be described by the universal mathematical equations of 'pure fragmentation'. The rates of fragmentation reactions reflect the stability of the protein filaments towards breakage, which is of importance in biology and biomedicine for instance in governing the creation of amyloid seeds and the propagation of prions. Here, we devised from mathematical theory inversion formulae to recover the division rates and division kernel information from time-dependent experimental measurements of filament size distribution. The numerical approach to systematically analyze the behaviour of pure fragmentation trajectories was also developed. We illustrate how these formulae can be used, provide some insights on their robustness, and show how they inform the design of experiments to measure fibril fragmentation dynamics. These advances are made possible by our central theoretical result on how the length distribution profile of the solution to the pure fragmentation equation aligns with a steady distribution profile for large times.

For various species, high quality sequences and complete genomes are nowadays available for many individuals. This makes data analysis challenging, as methods need not only to be accurate, but also time efficient given the tremendous amount of data to process. In this article, we introduce an efficient method to infer the evolutionary history of individuals under the multispecies coalescent model in networks (MSNC). Phylogenetic networks are an extension of phylogenetic trees that can contain reticulate nodes, which allow to model complex biological events such as horizontal gene transfer, hybridization and introgression. We present a novel way to compute the likelihood of biallelic markers sampled along genomes whose evolution involved such events. This likelihood computation is at the heart of a Bayesian network inference method called SnappNet, as it extends the Snapp method inferring evolutionary trees under the multispecies coalescent model, to networks. SnappNet is available as a package of the well-known beast 2 software. Recently, the MCMC_BiMarkers method, implemented in PhyloNet, also extended Snapp to networks. Both methods take biallelic markers as input, rely on the same model of evolution and sample networks in a Bayesian framework, though using different methods for computing priors. However, SnappNet relies on algorithms that are exponentially more time-efficient on non-trivial networks. Using simulations, we compare performances of SnappNet and MCMC_BiMarkers. We show that both methods enjoy similar abilities to recover simple networks, but SnappNet is more accurate than MCMC_BiMarkers on more complex network scenarios. Also, on complex networks, SnappNet is found to be extremely faster than MCMC_BiMarkers in terms of time required for the likelihood computation. We finally illustrate SnappNet performances on a rice data set. SnappNet infers a scenario that is consistent with previous results and provides additional understanding of rice evolution.

Humans play major roles in shaping and transforming the ecology of Earth. Unlike natural drivers of ecosystem change, which are erratic and unpredictable, human intervention in ecosystems generally involves planning and management, but often results in detrimental outcomes. Using model studies and aerial-image analysis, we argue that the design of a successful human intervention form calls for the identification of the self-organization modes that drive ecosystem change, and for studying their dynamics. We demonstrate this approach with two examples: grazing management in drought-prone ecosystems, and rehabilitation of degraded vegetation by water harvesting. We show that grazing can increase the resilience to droughts, rather than imposing an additional stress, if managed in a spatially non-uniform manner, and that fragmental restoration along contour bunds is more resilient than the common practice of continuous restoration in vegetation stripes. We conclude by discussing the need for additional studies of self-organization modes and their dynamics.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting.

Understanding relationships between spontaneous cancer in companion (pet) canines and humans can facilitate biomarker and drug development in both species. Towards this end we developed an experimental-bioinformatic protocol that analyzes canine transcriptomics data in the context of existing human data to evaluate comparative relevance of canine to human cancer. We used this protocol to characterize five canine cancers: melanoma, osteosarcoma, pulmonary carcinoma, B- and T-cell lymphoma, in 60 dogs. We applied an unsupervised, iterative clustering method that yielded five co-expression modules and found that each cancer exhibited a unique module expression profile. We constructed cancer models based on the co-expression modules and used the models to successfully classify the canine data. These canine-derived models also successfully classified human tumors representing the same cancers, indicating shared cancer biology between canines and humans. Annotation of the module genes identified cancer specific pathways relevant to cells-of-origin and tumor biology. For example, annotations associated with melanin production (PMEL, GPNMB, and BACE2), synthesis of bone material (COL5A2, COL6A3, and COL12A1), synthesis of pulmonary surfactant (CTSH, LPCAT1, and NAPSA), ribosomal proteins (RPL8, RPS7, and RPLP0), and epigenetic regulation (EDEM1, PTK2B, and JAK1) were unique to melanoma, osteosarcoma, pulmonary carcinoma, B- and T-cell lymphoma, respectively. In total, 152 biomarker candidates were selected from highly expressing modules for each cancer type. Many of these biomarker candidates are under-explored as drug discovery targets and warrant further study. The demonstrated transferability of classification models from canines to humans enforces the idea that tumor biology, biomarker targets, and associated therapeutics, discovered in canines, may translate to human medicine.

Persistent destruction of pancreatic β-cells in type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from multifaceted pancreatic cellular interactions in various phase progressions. Owing to the inherent heterogeneity of coupled nonlinear systems, computational modeling based on T1D etiology help achieve a systematic understanding of biological processes and T1D health outcomes. The main challenge is to design such a reliable framework to analyze the highly orchestrated biology of T1D based on the knowledge of cellular networks and biological parameters. We constructed a novel hybrid in-silico computational model to unravel T1D onset, progression, and prevention in a non-obese-diabetic mouse model. The computational approach that integrates mathematical modeling, agent-based modeling, and advanced statistical methods allows for modeling key biological parameters and time-dependent spatial networks of cell behaviors. By integrating interactions between multiple cell types, model results captured the individual-specific dynamics of T1D progression and were validated against experimental data for the number of infiltrating CD8+T-cells. Our simulation results uncovered the correlation between five auto-destructive mechanisms identifying a combination of potential therapeutic strategies: the average lifespan of cytotoxic CD8+T-cells in islets; the initial number of apoptotic β-cells; recruitment rate of dendritic-cells (DCs); binding sites on DCs for naïve CD8+T-cells; and time required for DCs movement. Results from therapy-directed simulations further suggest the efficacy of proposed therapeutic strategies depends upon the type and time of administering therapy interventions and the administered amount of therapeutic dose. Our findings show modeling immunogenicity that underlies autoimmune T1D and identifying autoantigens that serve as potential biomarkers are two pressing parameters to predict disease onset and progression.

Trisomy of human chromosome 21 (HSA21) causes Down syndrome (DS). The trisomy does not simply result in the upregulation of HSA21--encoded genes but also leads to a genome-wide transcriptomic deregulation, which affect differently each tissue and cell type as a result of epigenetic mechanisms and protein-protein interactions. We performed a meta-analysis integrating the differential expression (DE) analyses of all publicly available transcriptomic datasets, both in human and mouse, comparing trisomic and euploid transcriptomes from different sources. We integrated all these data in a "DS network". We found that genome wide deregulation as a consequence of trisomy 21 is not arbitrary, but involves deregulation of specific molecular cascades in which both HSA21 genes and HSA21 interactors are more consistently deregulated compared to other genes. In fact, gene deregulation happens in "clusters", so that groups from 2 to 13 genes are found consistently deregulated. Most of these events of "co-deregulation" involve genes belonging to the same GO category, and genes associated with the same disease class. The most consistent changes are enriched in interferon related categories and neutrophil activation, reinforcing the concept that DS is an inflammatory disease. Our results also suggest that the impact of the trisomy might diverge in each tissue due to the different gene set deregulation, even though the triplicated genes are the same. Our original method to integrate transcriptomic data confirmed not only the importance of known genes, such as SOD1, but also detected new ones that could be extremely useful for generating or confirming hypotheses and supporting new putative therapeutic candidates. We created "metaDEA" an R package that uses our method to integrate every kind of transcriptomic data and therefore could be used with other complex disorders, such as cancer. We also created a user-friendly web application to query Ensembl gene IDs and retrieve all the information of their differential expression across the datasets.

Quantitative traits are measurable phenotypes that show continuous variation over a wide phenotypic range. Enormous effort has recently been put into determining the genetic influences on a variety of quantitative traits with mixed success. We identified a quantitative trait in a tractable model system, the GAL pathway in yeast, which controls the uptake and metabolism of the sugar galactose. GAL pathway activation depends both on galactose concentration and on the concentrations of competing, preferred sugars such as glucose. Natural yeast isolates show substantial variation in the behavior of the pathway. All studied yeast strains exhibit bimodal responses relative to external galactose concentration, i.e. a set of galactose concentrations existed at which both GAL-induced and GAL-repressed subpopulations were observed. However, these concentrations differed in different strains. We built a mechanistic model of the GAL pathway and identified parameters that are plausible candidates for capturing the phenotypic features of a set of strains including standard lab strains, natural variants, and mutants. In silico perturbation of these parameters identified variation in the intracellular galactose sensor, Gal3p, the negative feedback node within the GAL regulatory network, Gal80p, and the hexose transporters, HXT, as the main sources of the bimodal range variation. We were able to switch the phenotype of individual yeast strains in silico by tuning parameters related to these three elements. Determining the basis for these behavioral differences may give insight into how the GAL pathway processes information, and into the evolution of nutrient metabolism preferences in different strains. More generally, our method of identifying the key parameters that explain phenotypic variation in this system should be generally applicable to other quantitative traits.

Group contribution (GC) methods are conventionally used in thermodynamics analysis of metabolic pathways to estimate the standard Gibbs energy change (ΔrG'o) of enzymatic reactions from limited experimental measurements. However, these methods are limited by their dependence on manually curated groups and inability to capture stereochemical information, leading to low reaction coverage. Herein, we introduce an automated molecular fingerprint-based thermodynamic analysis tool called dGPredictor that enables the consideration of stereochemistry within metabolite structures and thus increases reaction coverage. dGPredictor has comparable prediction accuracy compared to existing GC methods and can capture Gibbs energy changes for isomerase and transferase reactions, which exhibit no overall group changes. We also demonstrate dGPredictor's ability to predict the Gibbs energy change for novel reactions and seamless integration within de novo metabolic pathway design tools such as novoStoic for safeguarding against the inclusion of reaction steps with infeasible directionalities. To facilitate easy access to dGPredictor, we developed a graphical user interface to predict the standard Gibbs energy change for reactions at various pH and ionic strengths. The tool allows customized user input of known metabolites as KEGG IDs and novel metabolites as InChI strings (https://github.com/maranasgroup/dGPredictor).

Transcription factors (TFs) are proteins that promote or reduce the expression of genes by binding short genomic DNA sequences known as transcription factor binding sites (TFBS). While several tools have been developed to scan for potential occurrences of TFBS in linear DNA sequences or reference genomes, no tool exists to find them in pangenome variation graphs (VGs). VGs are sequence-labelled graphs that can efficiently encode collections of genomes and their variants in a single, compact data structure. Because VGs can losslessly compress large pangenomes, TFBS scanning in VGs can efficiently capture how genomic variation affects the potential binding landscape of TFs in a population of individuals. Here we present GRAFIMO (GRAph-based Finding of Individual Motif Occurrences), a command-line tool for the scanning of known TF DNA motifs represented as Position Weight Matrices (PWMs) in VGs. GRAFIMO extends the standard PWM scanning procedure by considering variations and alternative haplotypes encoded in a VG. Using GRAFIMO on a VG based on individuals from the 1000 Genomes project we recover several potential binding sites that are enhanced, weakened or missed when scanning only the reference genome, and which could constitute individual-specific binding events. GRAFIMO is available as an open-source tool, under the MIT license, at https://github.com/pinellolab/GRAFIMO and https://github.com/InfOmics/GRAFIMO.

Identification of biopolymer motifs represents a key step in the analysis of biological sequences. The MEME Suite is a widely used toolkit for comprehensive analysis of biopolymer motifs; however, these tools are poorly integrated within popular analysis frameworks like the R/Bioconductor project, creating barriers to their use. Here we present memes, an R package that provides a seamless R interface to a selection of popular MEME Suite tools. memes provides a novel "data aware" interface to these tools, enabling rapid and complex discriminative motif analysis workflows. In addition to interfacing with popular MEME Suite tools, memes leverages existing R/Bioconductor data structures to store the multidimensional data returned by MEME Suite tools for rapid data access and manipulation. Finally, memes provides data visualization capabilities to facilitate communication of results. memes is available as a Bioconductor package at https://bioconductor.org/packages/memes, and the source code can be found at github.com/snystrom/memes.

A number of neuroimaging techniques have been employed to understand how visual information is transformed along the visual pathway. Although each technique has spatial and temporal limitations, they can each provide important insights into the visual code. While the BOLD signal of fMRI can be quite informative, the visual code is not static and this can be obscured by fMRI's poor temporal resolution. In this study, we leveraged the high temporal resolution of EEG to develop an encoding technique based on the distribution of responses generated by a population of real-world scenes. This approach maps neural signals to each pixel within a given image and reveals location-specific transformations of the visual code, providing a spatiotemporal signature for the image at each electrode. Our analyses of the mapping results revealed that scenes undergo a series of nonuniform transformations that prioritize different spatial frequencies at different regions of scenes over time. This mapping technique offers a potential avenue for future studies to explore how dynamic feedforward and recurrent processes inform and refine high-level representations of our visual world.

Environmental information is required to stabilize estimates of head direction (HD) based on angular path integration. However, it is unclear how this happens in real-world (visually complex) environments. We present a computational model of how visual feedback can stabilize HD information in environments that contain multiple cues of varying stability and directional specificity. We show how combinations of feature-specific visual inputs can generate a stable unimodal landmark bearing signal, even in the presence of multiple cues and ambiguous directional specificity. This signal is associated with the retrosplenial HD signal (inherited from thalamic HD cells) and conveys feedback to the subcortical HD circuitry. The model predicts neurons with a unimodal encoding of the egocentric orientation of the array of landmarks, rather than any one particular landmark. The relationship between these abstract landmark bearing neurons and head direction cells is reminiscent of the relationship between place cells and grid cells. Their unimodal encoding is formed from visual inputs via a modified version of Oja's Subspace Algorithm. The rule allows the landmark bearing signal to disconnect from directionally unstable or ephemeral cues, incorporate newly added stable cues, support orientation across many different environments (high memory capacity), and is consistent with recent empirical findings on bidirectional HD firing reported in the retrosplenial cortex. Our account of visual feedback for HD stabilization provides a novel perspective on neural mechanisms of spatial navigation within richer sensory environments, and makes experimentally testable predictions.

Graph representations are traditionally used to represent protein structures in sequence design protocols in which the protein backbone conformation is known. This infrequently extends to machine learning projects: existing graph convolution algorithms have shortcomings when representing protein environments. One reason for this is the lack of emphasis on edge attributes during massage-passing operations. Another reason is the traditionally shallow nature of graph neural network architectures. Here we introduce an improved message-passing operation that is better equipped to model local kinematics problems such as protein design. Our approach, XENet, pays special attention to both incoming and outgoing edge attributes. We compare XENet against existing graph convolutions in an attempt to decrease rotamer sample counts in Rosetta's rotamer substitution protocol, used for protein side-chain optimization and sequence design. This use case is motivating because it both reduces the size of the search space for classical side-chain optimization algorithms, and allows larger protein design problems to be solved with quantum algorithms on near-term quantum computers with limited qubit counts. XENet outperformed competing models while also displaying a greater tolerance for deeper architectures. We found that XENet was able to decrease rotamer counts by 40% without loss in quality. This decreased the memory consumption for classical pre-computation of rotamer energies in our use case by more than a factor of 3, the qubit consumption for an existing sequence design quantum algorithm by 40%, and the size of the solution space by a factor of 165. Additionally, XENet displayed an ability to handle deeper architectures than competing convolutions.

Secondary metabolites (SMs) are a vast group of compounds with different structures and properties that have been utilized as drugs, food additives, dyes, and as monomers for novel plastics. In many cases, the biosynthesis of SMs is catalysed by enzymes whose corresponding genes are co-localized in the genome in biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs). Notably, BGCs may contain so-called gap genes, that are not involved in the biosynthesis of the SM. Current genome mining tools can identify BGCs, but they have problems with distinguishing essential genes from gap genes. This can and must be done by expensive, laborious, and time-consuming comparative genomic approaches or transcriptome analyses. In this study, we developed a method that allows semi-automated identification of essential genes in a BGC based on co-evolution analysis. To this end, the protein sequences of a BGC are blasted against a suitable proteome database. For each protein, a phylogenetic tree is created. The trees are compared by treeKO to detect co-evolution. The results of this comparison are visualized in different output formats, which are compared visually. Our results suggest that co-evolution is commonly occurring within BGCs, albeit not all, and that especially those genes that encode for enzymes of the biosynthetic pathway are co-evolutionary linked and can be identified with FunOrder. In light of the growing number of genomic data available, this will contribute to the studies of BGCs in native hosts and facilitate heterologous expression in other organisms with the aim of the discovery of novel SMs.

Autism spectrum disorders have been proposed to arise from impairments in the probabilistic integration of prior knowledge with sensory inputs. Circular inference is one such possible impairment, in which excitation-to-inhibition imbalances in the cerebral cortex cause the reverberation and amplification of prior beliefs and sensory information. Recent empirical work has associated circular inference with the clinical dimensions of schizophrenia. Inhibition impairments have also been observed in autism, suggesting that signal reverberation might be present in that condition as well. In this study, we collected data from 21 participants with self-reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorders and 155 participants with a broad range of autistic traits in an online probabilistic decision-making task (the fisher task). We used previously established Bayesian models to investigate possible associations between autistic traits or autism and circular inference. There was no correlation between prior or likelihood reverberation and autistic traits across the whole sample. Similarly, no differences in any of the circular inference model parameters were found between autistic participants and those with no diagnosis. Furthermore, participants incorporated information from both priors and likelihoods in their decisions, with no relationship between their weights and psychiatric traits, contrary to what common theories for both autism and schizophrenia would suggest. These findings suggest that there is no increased signal reverberation in autism, despite the known presence of excitation-to-inhibition imbalances. They can be used to further contrast and refine the Bayesian theories of schizophrenia and autism, revealing a divergence in the computational mechanisms underlying the two conditions.

Cancer vaccines are an important component of the cancer immunotherapy toolkit enhancing immune response to malignant cells by activating CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Multiple successful clinical applications of cancer vaccines have shown good safety and efficacy. Despite the notable progress, significant challenges remain in obtaining consistent immune responses across heterogeneous patient populations, as well as various cancers. We present a mechanistic mathematical model describing key interactions of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine with an individual patient's immune system. Specifically, the model considers the vaccine concentration of tumor-specific antigen peptides and adjuvant, the patient's major histocompatibility complexes I and II copy numbers, tumor size, T cells, and antigen presenting cells. We parametrized the model using patient-specific data from a clinical study in which individualized cancer vaccines were used to treat six melanoma patients. Model simulations predicted both immune responses, represented by T cell counts, to the vaccine as well as clinical outcome (determined as change of tumor size). This model, although complex, can be used to describe, simulate, and predict the behavior of the human immune system to a personalized cancer vaccine.

The dispersal or mixing of cells within cellular tissue is a crucial property for diverse biological processes, ranging from morphogenesis, immune action, to tumor metastasis. With the phenomenon of 'contact inhibition of locomotion,' it is puzzling how cells achieve such processes within a densely packed cohesive population. Here we demonstrate that a proper degree of cell-cell adhesiveness can, intriguingly, enhance the super-diffusive nature of individual cells. We systematically characterize the migration trajectories of crawling MDA-MB-231 cell lines, while they are in several different clustering modes, including freely crawling singles, cohesive doublets of two cells, quadruplets, and confluent population on two-dimensional substrate. Following data analysis and computer simulation of a simple cellular Potts model, which faithfully recapitulated all key experimental observations such as enhanced diffusivity as well as periodic rotation of cell-doublets and cell-quadruplets with mixing events, we found that proper combination of active self-propelling force and cell-cell adhesion is sufficient for generating the observed phenomena. Additionally, we found that tuning parameters for these two factors covers a variety of different collective dynamic states.

Early Endosomal Antigen 1 (EEA1) is a key protein in endosomal trafficking and is implicated in both autoimmune and neurological diseases. The C-terminal FYVE domain of EEA1 binds endosomal membranes, which contain phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate (PI(3)P). Although it is known that FYVE binds PI(3)P specifically, it has not previously been described of how FYVE attaches and binds to endosomal membranes. In this study, we employed both coarse-grained (CG) and atomistic (AT) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to determine how FYVE binds to PI(3)P-containing membranes. CG-MD showed that the dominant membrane binding mode resembles the crystal structure of EEA1 FYVE domain in complex with inositol-1,3-diphospate (PDB ID 1JOC). FYVE, which is a homodimer, binds the membrane via a hinge mechanism, where the C-terminus of one monomer first attaches to the membrane, followed by the C-terminus of the other monomer. The estimated total binding energy is ~70 kJ/mol, of which 50-60 kJ/mol stems from specific PI(3)P-interactions. By AT-MD, we could partition the binding mode into two types: (i) adhesion by electrostatic FYVE-PI(3)P interaction, and (ii) insertion of amphipathic loops. The AT simulations also demonstrated flexibility within the FYVE homodimer between the C-terminal heads and coiled-coil stem. This leads to a dynamic model whereby the 200 nm long coiled coil attached to the FYVE domain dimer can amplify local hinge-bending motions such that the Rab5-binding domain at the other end of the coiled coil can explore an area of 0.1 μm2 in the search for a second endosome with which to interact.

Only a small fraction of genes deposited to databases have been experimentally characterised. The majority of proteins have their function assigned automatically, which can result in erroneous annotations. The reliability of current annotations in public databases is largely unknown; experimental attempts to validate the accuracy within individual enzyme classes are lacking. In this study we performed an overview of functional annotations to the BRENDA enzyme database. We first applied a high-throughput experimental platform to verify functional annotations to an enzyme class of S-2-hydroxyacid oxidases (EC 1.1.3.15). We chose 122 representative sequences of the class and screened them for their predicted function. Based on the experimental results, predicted domain architecture and similarity to previously characterised S-2-hydroxyacid oxidases, we inferred that at least 78% of sequences in the enzyme class are misannotated. We experimentally confirmed four alternative activities among the misannotated sequences and showed that misannotation in the enzyme class increased over time. Finally, we performed a computational analysis of annotations to all enzyme classes in the BRENDA database, and showed that nearly 18% of all sequences are annotated to an enzyme class while sharing no similarity or domain architecture to experimentally characterised representatives. We showed that even well-studied enzyme classes of industrial relevance are affected by the problem of functional misannotation.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics have been historically regarded as unfolding at broadly separated timescales. However, these two types of processes are nowadays well-documented to intersperse much more tightly than traditionally assumed, especially in communities of microorganisms. Advancing the development of mathematical and computational approaches to shed novel light onto eco-evolutionary problems is a challenge of utmost relevance. With this motivation in mind, here we scrutinize recent experimental results showing evidence of rapid evolution of tolerance by lag in bacterial populations that are periodically exposed to antibiotic stress in laboratory conditions. In particular, the distribution of single-cell lag times-i.e., the times that individual bacteria from the community remain in a dormant state to cope with stress-evolves its average value to approximately fit the antibiotic-exposure time. Moreover, the distribution develops right-skewed heavy tails, revealing the presence of individuals with anomalously large lag times. Here, we develop a parsimonious individual-based model mimicking the actual demographic processes of the experimental setup. Individuals are characterized by a single phenotypic trait: their intrinsic lag time, which is transmitted with variation to the progeny. The model-in a version in which the amplitude of phenotypic variations grows with the parent's lag time-is able to reproduce quite well the key empirical observations. Furthermore, we develop a general mathematical framework allowing us to describe with good accuracy the properties of the stochastic model by means of a macroscopic equation, which generalizes the Crow-Kimura equation in population genetics. Even if the model does not account for all the biological mechanisms (e.g., genetic changes) in a detailed way-i.e., it is a phenomenological one-it sheds light onto the eco-evolutionary dynamics of the problem and can be helpful to design strategies to hinder the emergence of tolerance in bacterial communities. From a broader perspective, this work represents a benchmark for the mathematical framework designed to tackle much more general eco-evolutionary problems, thus paving the road to further research avenues.

Increasing body of experimental evidence suggests that anticancer and antimicrobial therapies may themselves promote the acquisition of drug resistance by increasing mutability. The successful control of evolving populations requires that such biological costs of control are identified, quantified and included to the evolutionarily informed treatment protocol. Here we identify, characterise and exploit a trade-off between decreasing the target population size and generating a surplus of treatment-induced rescue mutations. We show that the probability of cure is maximized at an intermediate dosage, below the drug concentration yielding maximal population decay, suggesting that treatment outcomes may in some cases be substantially improved by less aggressive treatment strategies. We also provide a general analytical relationship that implicitly links growth rate, pharmacodynamics and dose-dependent mutation rate to an optimal control law. Our results highlight the important, but often neglected, role of fundamental eco-evolutionary costs of control. These costs can often lead to situations, where decreasing the cumulative drug dosage may be preferable even when the objective of the treatment is elimination, and not containment. Taken together, our results thus add to the ongoing criticism of the standard practice of administering aggressive, high-dose therapies and motivate further experimental and clinical investigation of the mutagenicity and other hidden collateral costs of therapies.

Insects can navigate efficiently in both novel and familiar environments, and this requires flexiblity in how they are guided by sensory cues. A prominent landmark, for example, can elicit strong innate behaviours (attraction or menotaxis) but can also be used, after learning, as a specific directional cue as part of a navigation memory. However, the mechanisms that allow both pathways to co-exist, interact or override each other are largely unknown. Here we propose a model for the behavioural integration of innate and learned guidance based on the neuroanatomy of the central complex (CX), adapted to control landmark guided behaviours. We consider a reward signal provided either by an innate attraction to landmarks or a long-term visual memory in the mushroom bodies (MB) that modulates the formation of a local vector memory in the CX. Using an operant strategy for a simulated agent exploring a simple world containing a single visual cue, we show how the generated short-term memory can support both innate and learned steering behaviour. In addition, we show how this architecture is consistent with the observed effects of unilateral MB lesions in ants that cause a reversion to innate behaviour. We suggest the formation of a directional memory in the CX can be interpreted as transforming rewarding (positive or negative) sensory signals into a mapping of the environment that describes the geometrical attractiveness (or repulsion). We discuss how this scheme might represent an ideal way to combine multisensory information gathered during the exploration of an environment and support optimal cue integration.

Decisions as to whether to continue with an ongoing activity or to switch to an alternative are a constant in an animal's natural world, and in particular underlie foraging behavior and performance in food preference tests. Stimuli experienced by the animal both impact the choice and are themselves impacted by the choice, in a dynamic back and forth. Here, we present model neural circuits, based on spiking neurons, in which the choice to switch away from ongoing behavior instantiates this back and forth, arising as a state transition in neural activity. We analyze two classes of circuit, which differ in whether state transitions result from a loss of hedonic input from the stimulus (an "entice to stay" model) or from aversive stimulus-input (a "repel to leave" model). In both classes of model, we find that the mean time spent sampling a stimulus decreases with increasing value of the alternative stimulus, a fact that we linked to the inclusion of depressing synapses in our model. The competitive interaction is much greater in "entice to stay" model networks, which has qualitative features of the marginal value theorem, and thereby provides a framework for optimal foraging behavior. We offer suggestions as to how our models could be discriminatively tested through the analysis of electrophysiological and behavioral data.

Neuronal activity within the premotor region HVC is tightly synchronized to, and crucial for, the articulate production of learned song in birds. Characterizations of this neural activity detail patterns of sequential bursting in small, carefully identified subsets of neurons in the HVC population. The dynamics of HVC are well described by these characterizations, but have not been verified beyond this scale of measurement. There is a rich history of using local field potentials (LFP) to extract information about behavior that extends beyond the contribution of individual cells. These signals have the advantage of being stable over longer periods of time, and they have been used to study and decode human speech and other complex motor behaviors. Here we characterize LFP signals presumptively from the HVC of freely behaving male zebra finches during song production to determine if population activity may yield similar insights into the mechanisms underlying complex motor-vocal behavior. Following an initial observation that structured changes in the LFP were distinct to all vocalizations during song, we show that it is possible to extract time-varying features from multiple frequency bands to decode the identity of specific vocalization elements (syllables) and to predict their temporal onsets within the motif. This demonstrates the utility of LFP for studying vocal behavior in songbirds. Surprisingly, the time frequency structure of HVC LFP is qualitatively similar to well-established oscillations found in both human and non-human mammalian motor areas. This physiological similarity, despite distinct anatomical structures, may give insight into common computational principles for learning and/or generating complex motor-vocal behaviors.

The increased complexity of synthetic microbial biocircuits highlights the need for distributed cell functionality due to concomitant increases in metabolic and regulatory burdens imposed on single-strain topologies. Distributed systems, however, introduce additional challenges since consortium composition and spatiotemporal dynamics of constituent strains must be robustly controlled to achieve desired circuit behaviors. Here, we address these challenges with a modeling-based investigation of emergent spatiotemporal population dynamics using cell-length control in monolayer, two-strain bacterial consortia. We demonstrate that with dynamic control of a strain's division length, nematic cell alignment in close-packed monolayers can be destabilized. We find that this destabilization confers an emergent, competitive advantage to smaller-length strains-but by mechanisms that differ depending on the spatial patterns of the population. We used complementary modeling approaches to elucidate underlying mechanisms: an agent-based model to simulate detailed mechanical and signaling interactions between the competing strains, and a reductive, stochastic lattice model to represent cell-cell interactions with a single rotational parameter. Our modeling suggests that spatial strain-fraction oscillations can be generated when cell-length control is coupled to quorum-sensing signaling in negative feedback topologies. Our research employs novel methods of population control and points the way to programming strain fraction dynamics in consortial synthetic biology.

Recurrent neural networks with memory and attention mechanisms are widely used in natural language processing because they can capture short and long term sequential information for diverse tasks. We propose an integrated deep learning model for microbial DNA sequence data, which exploits convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and attention mechanisms to predict taxonomic classifications and sample-associated attributes, such as the relationship between the microbiome and host phenotype, on the read/sequence level. In this paper, we develop this novel deep learning approach and evaluate its application to amplicon sequences. We apply our approach to short DNA reads and full sequences of 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) marker genes, which identify the heterogeneity of a microbial community sample. We demonstrate that our implementation of a novel attention-based deep network architecture, Read2Pheno, achieves read-level phenotypic prediction. Training Read2Pheno models will encode sequences (reads) into dense, meaningful representations: learned embedded vectors output from the intermediate layer of the network model, which can provide biological insight when visualized. The attention layer of Read2Pheno models can also automatically identify nucleotide regions in reads/sequences which are particularly informative for classification. As such, this novel approach can avoid pre/post-processing and manual interpretation required with conventional approaches to microbiome sequence classification. We further show, as proof-of-concept, that aggregating read-level information can robustly predict microbial community properties, host phenotype, and taxonomic classification, with performance at least comparable to conventional approaches. An implementation of the attention-based deep learning network is available at https://github.com/EESI/sequence_attention (a python package) and https://github.com/EESI/seq2att (a command line tool).

Recent neuroscience studies demonstrate that a deeper understanding of brain function requires a deeper understanding of behavior. Detailed behavioral measurements are now often collected using video cameras, resulting in an increased need for computer vision algorithms that extract useful information from video data. Here we introduce a new video analysis tool that combines the output of supervised pose estimation algorithms (e.g. DeepLabCut) with unsupervised dimensionality reduction methods to produce interpretable, low-dimensional representations of behavioral videos that extract more information than pose estimates alone. We demonstrate this tool by extracting interpretable behavioral features from videos of three different head-fixed mouse preparations, as well as a freely moving mouse in an open field arena, and show how these interpretable features can facilitate downstream behavioral and neural analyses. We also show how the behavioral features produced by our model improve the precision and interpretation of these downstream analyses compared to using the outputs of either fully supervised or fully unsupervised methods alone.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first hemodynamic-based heart sound generation model embedded in a complete real-time computational model of the cardiovascular system. Simulated heart sounds are similar to experimental and clinical measurements, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Our model can be used to investigate the relationships between heart sound acoustic features and hemodynamic factors/anatomical parameters.

HIV molecular epidemiology estimates the transmission patterns from clustering genetically similar viruses. The process involves connecting genetically similar genotyped viral sequences in the network implying epidemiological transmissions. This technique relies on genotype data which is collected only from HIV diagnosed and in-care populations and leaves many persons with HIV (PWH) who have no access to consistent care out of the tracking process. We use machine learning algorithms to learn the non-linear correlation patterns between patient metadata and transmissions between HIV-positive cases. This enables us to expand the transmission network reconstruction beyond the molecular network. We employed multiple commonly used supervised classification algorithms to analyze the San Diego Primary Infection Resource Consortium (PIRC) cohort dataset, consisting of genotypes and nearly 80 additional non-genetic features. First, we trained classification models to determine genetically unrelated individuals from related ones. Our results show that random forest and decision tree achieved over 80% in accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score by only using a subset of meta-features including age, birth sex, sexual orientation, race, transmission category, estimated date of infection, and first viral load date besides genetic data. Additionally, both algorithms achieved approximately 80% sensitivity and specificity. The Area Under Curve (AUC) is reported 97% and 94% for random forest and decision tree classifiers respectively. Next, we extended the models to identify clusters of similar viral sequences. Support vector machine demonstrated one order of magnitude improvement in accuracy of assigning the sequences to the correct cluster compared to dummy uniform random classifier. These results confirm that metadata carries important information about the dynamics of HIV transmission as embedded in transmission clusters. Hence, novel computational approaches are needed to apply the non-trivial knowledge collected from inter-individual genetic information to metadata from PWH in order to expand the estimated transmissions. We note that feature extraction alone will not be effective in identifying patterns of transmission and will result in random clustering of the data, but its utilization in conjunction with genetic data and the right algorithm can contribute to the expansion of the reconstructed network beyond individuals with genetic data.

The repurposing of biomedical data is inhibited by its fragmented and multi-formatted nature that requires redundant investment of time and resources by data scientists. This is particularly true for Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), one of the most intensely studied common childhood diseases. Intense investigation of the contribution of pancreatic β-islet and T-lymphocytes in T1D has been made. However, genetic contributions from B-lymphocytes, which are known to play a role in a subset of T1D patients, remain relatively understudied. We have addressed this issue through the creation of Biomedical Data Commons (BMDC), a knowledge graph that integrates data from multiple sources into a single queryable format. This increases the speed of analysis by multiple orders of magnitude. We develop a pipeline using B-lymphocyte multi-dimensional epigenome and connectome data and deploy BMDC to assess genetic variants in the context of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D). Pipeline-identified variants are primarily common, non-coding, poorly conserved, and are of unknown clinical significance. While variants and their chromatin connectivity are cell-type specific, they are associated with well-studied disease genes in T-lymphocytes. Candidates include established variants in the HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 and IL2RA loci that have previously been demonstrated to protect against T1D in humans and mice providing validation for this method. Others are included in the well-established T1D GRS2 genetic risk scoring method. More intriguingly, other prioritized variants are completely novel and form the basis for future mechanistic and clinical validation studies The BMDC community-based platform can be expanded and repurposed to increase the accessibility, reproducibility, and productivity of biomedical information for diverse applications including the prioritization of cell type-specific disease alleles from complex phenotypes.

The majority of olfaction studies focus on orthonasal stimulation where odors enter via the front nasal cavity, while retronasal olfaction, where odors enter the rear of the nasal cavity during feeding, is understudied. The coding of retronasal odors via coordinated spiking of neurons in the olfactory bulb (OB) is largely unknown despite evidence that higher level processing is different than orthonasal. To this end, we use multi-electrode array in vivo recordings of rat OB mitral cells (MC) in response to a food odor with both modes of stimulation, and find significant differences in evoked firing rates and spike count covariances (i.e., noise correlations). Differences in spiking activity often have implications for sensory coding, thus we develop a single-compartment biophysical OB model that is able to reproduce key properties of important OB cell types. Prior experiments in olfactory receptor neurons (ORN) showed retro stimulation yields slower and spatially smaller ORN inputs than with ortho, yet whether this is consequential for OB activity remains unknown. Indeed with these specifications for ORN inputs, our OB model captures the salient trends in our OB data. We also analyze how first and second order ORN input statistics dynamically transfer to MC spiking statistics with a phenomenological linear-nonlinear filter model, and find that retro inputs result in larger linear filters than ortho inputs. Finally, our models show that the temporal profile of ORN is crucial for capturing our data and is thus a distinguishing feature between ortho and retro stimulation, even at the OB. Using data-driven modeling, we detail how ORN inputs result in differences in OB dynamics and MC spiking statistics. These differences may ultimately shape how ortho and retro odors are coded.

Sleep is critical for memory consolidation, although the exact mechanisms mediating this process are unknown. Combining reduced network models and analysis of in vivo recordings, we tested the hypothesis that neuromodulatory changes in acetylcholine (ACh) levels during non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep mediate stabilization of network-wide firing patterns, with temporal order of neurons' firing dependent on their mean firing rate during wake. In both reduced models and in vivo recordings from mouse hippocampus, we find that the relative order of firing among neurons during NREM sleep reflects their relative firing rates during prior wake. Our modeling results show that this remapping of wake-associated, firing frequency-based representations is based on NREM-associated changes in neuronal excitability mediated by ACh-gated potassium current. We also show that learning-dependent reordering of sequential firing during NREM sleep, together with spike timing-dependent plasticity (STDP), reconfigures neuronal firing rates across the network. This rescaling of firing rates has been reported in multiple brain circuits across periods of sleep. Our model and experimental data both suggest that this effect is amplified in neural circuits following learning. Together our data suggest that sleep may bias neural networks from firing rate-based towards phase-based information encoding to consolidate memories.

Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.

With the increasing ability to use high-throughput next-generation sequencing to quantify the diversity of the human T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire, the ability to use TCR sequences to infer antigen-specificity could greatly aid potential diagnostics and therapeutics. Here, we use a machine-learning approach known as Restricted Boltzmann Machine to develop a sequence-based inference approach to identify antigen-specific TCRs. Our approach combines probabilistic models of TCR sequences with clone abundance information to extract TCR sequence motifs central to an antigen-specific response. We use this model to identify patient personalized TCR motifs that respond to individual tumor and infectious disease antigens, and to accurately discriminate specific from non-specific responses. Furthermore, the hidden structure of the model results in an interpretable representation space where TCRs responding to the same antigen cluster, correctly discriminating the response of TCR to different viral epitopes. The model can be used to identify condition specific responding TCRs. We focus on the examples of TCRs reactive to candidate neoantigens and selected epitopes in experiments of stimulated TCR clone expansion.

Brain networks can be explored by delivering brief pulses of electrical current in one area while measuring voltage responses in other areas. We propose a convergent paradigm to study brain dynamics, focusing on a single brain site to observe the average effect of stimulating each of many other brain sites. Viewed in this manner, visually-apparent motifs in the temporal response shape emerge from adjacent stimulation sites. This work constructs and illustrates a data-driven approach to determine characteristic spatiotemporal structure in these response shapes, summarized by a set of unique "basis profile curves" (BPCs). Each BPC may be mapped back to underlying anatomy in a natural way, quantifying projection strength from each stimulation site using simple metrics. Our technique is demonstrated for an array of implanted brain surface electrodes in a human patient. This framework enables straightforward interpretation of single-pulse brain stimulation data, and can be applied generically to explore the diverse milieu of interactions that comprise the connectome.

The ChIP-seq signal of histone modifications at promoters is a good predictor of gene expression in different cellular contexts, but whether this is also true at enhancers is not clear. To address this issue, we develop quantitative models to characterize the relationship of gene expression with histone modifications at enhancers or promoters. We use embryonic stem cells (ESCs), which contain a full spectrum of active and repressed (poised) enhancers, to train predictive models. As many poised enhancers in ESCs switch towards an active state during differentiation, predictive models can also be trained on poised enhancers throughout differentiation and in development. Remarkably, we determine that histone modifications at enhancers, as well as promoters, are predictive of gene expression in ESCs and throughout differentiation and development. Importantly, we demonstrate that their contribution to the predictive models varies depending on their location in enhancers or promoters. Moreover, we use a local regression (LOESS) to normalize sequencing data from different sources, which allows us to apply predictive models trained in a specific cellular context to a different one. We conclude that the relationship between gene expression and histone modifications at enhancers is universal and different from promoters. Our study provides new insight into how histone modifications relate to gene expression based on their location in enhancers or promoters.

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.

Despite the growing constellation of genetic loci linked to common traits, these loci have yet to account for most heritable variation, and most act through poorly understood mechanisms. Recent machine learning (ML) systems have used hierarchical biological knowledge to associate genetic mutations with phenotypic outcomes, yielding substantial predictive power and mechanistic insight. Here, we use an ontology-guided ML system to map single nucleotide variants (SNVs) focusing on 6 classic phenotypic traits in natural yeast populations. The 29 identified loci are largely novel and account for ~17% of the phenotypic variance, versus <3% for standard genetic analysis. Representative results show that sensitivity to hydroxyurea is linked to SNVs in two alternative purine biosynthesis pathways, and that sensitivity to copper arises through failure to detoxify reactive oxygen species in fatty acid metabolism. This work demonstrates a knowledge-based approach to amplifying and interpreting signals in population genetic studies.

Rats and mice use their whiskers to probe the environment. By rhythmically swiping their whiskers back and forth they can detect the existence of an object, locate it, and identify its texture. Localization can be accomplished by inferring the whisker's position. Rhythmic neurons that track the phase of the whisking cycle encode information about the azimuthal location of the whisker. These neurons are characterized by preferred phases of firing that are narrowly distributed. Consequently, pooling the rhythmic signal from several upstream neurons is expected to result in a much narrower distribution of preferred phases in the downstream population, which however has not been observed empirically. Here, we show how spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) can provide a solution to this conundrum. We investigated the effect of STDP on the utility of a neural population to transmit rhythmic information downstream using the framework of a modeling study. We found that under a wide range of parameters, STDP facilitated the transfer of rhythmic information despite the fact that all the synaptic weights remained dynamic. As a result, the preferred phase of the downstream neuron was not fixed, but rather drifted in time at a drift velocity that depended on the preferred phase, thus inducing a distribution of preferred phases. We further analyzed how the STDP rule governs the distribution of preferred phases in the downstream population. This link between the STDP rule and the distribution of preferred phases constitutes a natural test for our theory.

Many countries are currently dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic and are searching for an exit strategy such that life in society can return to normal. To support this search, computational models are used to predict the spread of the virus and to assess the efficacy of policy measures before actual implementation. The model output has to be interpreted carefully though, as computational models are subject to uncertainties. These can stem from, e.g., limited knowledge about input parameters values or from the intrinsic stochastic nature of some computational models. They lead to uncertainties in the model predictions, raising the question what distribution of values the model produces for key indicators of the severity of the epidemic. Here we show how to tackle this question using techniques for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. We assess the uncertainties and sensitivities of four exit strategies implemented in an agent-based transmission model with geographical stratification. The exit strategies are termed Flattening the Curve, Contact Tracing, Intermittent Lockdown and Phased Opening. We consider two key indicators of the ability of exit strategies to avoid catastrophic health care overload: the maximum number of prevalent cases in intensive care (IC), and the total number of IC patient-days in excess of IC bed capacity. Our results show that uncertainties not directly related to the exit strategies are secondary, although they should still be considered in comprehensive analysis intended to inform policy makers. The sensitivity analysis discloses the crucial role of the intervention uptake by the population and of the capability to trace infected individuals. Finally, we explore the existence of a safe operating space. For Intermittent Lockdown we find only a small region in the model parameter space where the key indicators of the model stay within safe bounds, whereas this region is larger for the other exit strategies.

The maintenance of short-term memories is critical for survival in a dynamically changing world. Previous studies suggest that this memory can be stored in the form of persistent neural activity or using a synaptic mechanism, such as with short-term plasticity. Here, we compare the predictions of these two mechanisms to neural and behavioral measurements in a visual change detection task. Mice were trained to respond to changes in a repeated sequence of natural images while neural activity was recorded using two-photon calcium imaging. We also trained two types of artificial neural networks on the same change detection task as the mice. Following fixed pre-processing using a pretrained convolutional neural network, either a recurrent neural network (RNN) or a feedforward neural network with short-term synaptic depression (STPNet) was trained to the same level of performance as the mice. While both networks are able to learn the task, the STPNet model contains units whose activity are more similar to the in vivo data and produces errors which are more similar to the mice. When images are omitted, an unexpected perturbation which was absent during training, mice often do not respond to the omission but are more likely to respond to the subsequent image. Unlike the RNN model, STPNet produces a similar pattern of behavior. These results suggest that simple neural adaptation mechanisms may serve as an important bottom-up memory signal in this task, which can be used by downstream areas in the decision-making process.

The human brain tracks amplitude fluctuations of both speech and music, which reflects acoustic processing in addition to the encoding of higher-order features and one's cognitive state. Comparing neural tracking of speech and music envelopes can elucidate stimulus-general mechanisms, but direct comparisons are confounded by differences in their envelope spectra. Here, we use a novel method of frequency-constrained reconstruction of stimulus envelopes using EEG recorded during passive listening. We expected to see music reconstruction match speech in a narrow range of frequencies, but instead we found that speech was reconstructed better than music for all frequencies we examined. Additionally, models trained on all stimulus types performed as well or better than the stimulus-specific models at higher modulation frequencies, suggesting a common neural mechanism for tracking speech and music. However, speech envelope tracking at low frequencies, below 1 Hz, was associated with increased weighting over parietal channels, which was not present for the other stimuli. Our results highlight the importance of low-frequency speech tracking and suggest an origin from speech-specific processing in the brain.

DNA methylation provides one of the most widely studied biomarkers of ageing. Since the methylation of CpG dinucleotides function as switches in cellular mechanisms, it is plausible to assume that by proper adjustment of these switches age may be tuned. Though, adjusting hundreds of CpG methylation levels coherently may never be feasible and changing just a few positions may lead to biologically unstable state. A prominent example of methylation-based age estimators is provided by Horvath's clock, based on 353 CpG dinucleotides, showing a high correlation (not necessarily causation) with chronological age across multiple tissue types. On this small subset of CpG dinucleotides we demonstrate how the adjustment of one methylation level leads to a cascade of changes at other sites. Among the studied subset, we locate the most important CpGs (and related genes) that may have a large influence on the rest of the sub-system. According to our analysis, the structure of this network is way more hierarchical compared to what one would expect based on ensembles of uncorrelated connections. Therefore, only a handful of CpGs is enough to modify the system towards a desired state. When propagation of the change over the network is taken into account, the resulting modification in the predicted age can be significantly larger compared to the effect of isolated CpG perturbations. By adjusting the most influential single CpG site and following the propagation of methylation level changes we can reach up to 5.74 years in virtual age reduction, significantly larger than without taking into account of the network control. Extending our approach to the whole methylation network may identify key nodes that have controller role in the ageing process.

The immaturity of pluripotent stem cell (PSC)-derived tissues has emerged as a universal problem for their biomedical applications. While efforts have been made to generate adult-like cells from PSCs, direct benchmarking of PSC-derived tissues against in vivo development has not been established. Thus, maturation status is often assessed on an ad-hoc basis. Single cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers a promising solution, though cross-study comparison is limited by dataset-specific batch effects. Here, we developed a novel approach to quantify PSC-derived cardiomyocyte (CM) maturation through transcriptomic entropy. Transcriptomic entropy is robust across datasets regardless of differences in isolation protocols, library preparation, and other potential batch effects. With this new model, we analyzed over 45 scRNA-seq datasets and over 52,000 CMs, and established a cross-study, cross-species CM maturation reference. This reference enabled us to directly compare PSC-CMs with the in vivo developmental trajectory and thereby to quantify PSC-CM maturation status. We further found that our entropy-based approach can be used for other cell types, including pancreatic beta cells and hepatocytes. Our study presents a biologically relevant and interpretable metric for quantifying PSC-derived tissue maturation, and is extensible to numerous tissue engineering contexts.

Two subpopulations of midbrain dopamine (DA) neurons are known to have different dynamic firing ranges in vitro that correspond to distinct projection targets: the originally identified conventional DA neurons project to the dorsal striatum and the lateral shell of the nucleus accumbens, whereas an atypical DA population with higher maximum firing frequencies projects to prefrontal regions and other limbic regions including the medial shell of nucleus accumbens. Using a computational model, we show that previously identified differences in biophysical properties do not fully account for the larger dynamic range of the atypical population and predict that the major difference is that originally identified conventional cells have larger occupancy of voltage-gated sodium channels in a long-term inactivated state that recovers slowly; stronger sodium and potassium conductances during action potential firing are also predicted for the conventional compared to the atypical DA population. These differences in sodium channel gating imply that longer intervals between spikes are required in the conventional population for full recovery from long-term inactivation induced by the preceding spike, hence the lower maximum frequency. These same differences can also change the bifurcation structure to account for distinct modes of entry into depolarization block: abrupt versus gradual. The model predicted that in cells that have entered depolarization block, it is much more likely that an additional depolarization can evoke an action potential in conventional DA population. New experiments comparing lateral to medial shell projecting neurons confirmed this model prediction, with implications for differential synaptic integration in the two populations.

Activity-dependent regulation of intrinsic excitability has been shown to greatly contribute to the overall plasticity of neuronal circuits. Such neuroadaptations are commonly investigated in patch clamp experiments using current step stimulation and the resulting input-output functions are analyzed to quantify alterations in intrinsic excitability. However, it is rarely addressed, how such changes translate to the function of neurons when they operate under natural synaptic inputs. Still, it is reasonable to expect that a strong correlation and near proportional relationship exist between static firing responses and those evoked by synaptic drive. We challenge this view by performing a high-yield electrophysiological analysis of cultured mouse hippocampal neurons using both standard protocols and simulated synaptic inputs via dynamic clamp. We find that under these conditions the neurons exhibit vastly different firing responses with surprisingly weak correlation between static and dynamic firing intensities. These contrasting responses are regulated by two intrinsic K-currents mediated by Kv1 and Kir channels, respectively. Pharmacological manipulation of the K-currents produces differential regulation of the firing output of neurons. Static firing responses are greatly increased in stuttering type neurons under blocking their Kv1 channels, while the synaptic responses of the same neurons are less affected. Pharmacological blocking of Kir-channels in delayed firing type neurons, on the other hand, exhibit the opposite effects. Our subsequent computational model simulations confirm the findings in the electrophysiological experiments and also show that adaptive changes in the kinetic properties of such currents can even produce paradoxical regulation of the firing output.

Immunotherapies provide effective treatments for previously untreatable tumors and identifying tumor-specific epitopes can help elucidate the molecular determinants of therapy response. Here, we describe a pipeline, ISOTOPE (ISOform-guided prediction of epiTOPEs In Cancer), for the comprehensive identification of tumor-specific splicing-derived epitopes. Using RNA sequencing and mass spectrometry for MHC-I associated proteins, ISOTOPE identified neoepitopes from tumor-specific splicing events that are potentially presented by MHC-I complexes. Analysis of multiple samples indicates that splicing alterations may affect the production of self-epitopes and generate more candidate neoepitopes than somatic mutations. Although there was no difference in the number of splicing-derived neoepitopes between responders and non-responders to immune therapy, higher MHC-I binding affinity was associated with a positive response. Our analyses highlight the diversity of the immunogenic impacts of tumor-specific splicing alterations and the importance of studying splicing alterations to fully characterize tumors in the context of immunotherapies. ISOTOPE is available at https://github.com/comprna/ISOTOPE.

Three-dimensional structures of proteins can provide important clues into the efficacy of personalized treatment. We perform a structural analysis of variants within three inherited lysosomal storage disorders, comparing variants responsive to pharmacological chaperone treatment to those unresponsive to such treatment. We find that predicted ΔΔG of mutation is higher on average for variants unresponsive to treatment, in the case of datasets for both Fabry disease and Pompe disease, in line with previous findings. Using both a single decision tree and an advanced machine learning approach based on the larger Fabry dataset, we correctly predict responsiveness of three Gaucher disease variants, and we provide predictions for untested variants. Many variants are predicted to be responsive to treatment, suggesting that drug-based treatments may be effective for a number of variants in Gaucher disease. In our analysis, we observe dependence on a topological feature reporting on contact arrangements which is likely connected to the order of folding of protein residues, and we provide a potential justification for this observation based on steady-state cellular kinetics.

The PI3K/MTOR signalling network regulates a broad array of critical cellular processes, including cell growth, metabolism and autophagy. The mechanistic target of rapamycin (MTOR) kinase functions as a core catalytic subunit in two physically and functionally distinct complexes mTORC1 and mTORC2, which also share other common components including MLST8 (also known as GβL) and DEPTOR. Despite intensive research, how mTORC1 and 2 assembly and activity are coordinated, and how they are functionally linked remain to be fully characterized. This is due in part to the complex network wiring, featuring multiple feedback loops and intricate post-translational modifications. Here, we integrate predictive network modelling, in vitro experiments and -omics data analysis to elucidate the emergent dynamic behaviour of the PI3K/MTOR network. We construct new mechanistic models that encapsulate critical mechanistic details, including mTORC1/2 coordination by MLST8 (de)ubiquitination and the Akt-to-mTORC2 positive feedback loop. Model simulations validated by experimental studies revealed a previously unknown biphasic, threshold-gated dependence of mTORC1 activity on the key mTORC2 subunit SIN1, which is robust against cell-to-cell variation in protein expression. In addition, our integrative analysis demonstrates that ubiquitination of MLST8, which is reversed by OTUD7B, is regulated by IRS1/2. Our results further support the essential role of MLST8 in enabling both mTORC1 and 2's activity and suggest MLST8 as a viable therapeutic target in breast cancer. Overall, our study reports a new mechanistic model of PI3K/MTOR signalling incorporating MLST8-mediated mTORC1/2 formation and unveils a novel regulatory linkage between mTORC1 and mTORC2.

Replicability, the ability to replicate scientific findings, is a prerequisite for scientific discovery and clinical utility. Troublingly, we are in the midst of a replicability crisis. A key to replicability is that multiple measurements of the same item (e.g., experimental sample or clinical participant) under fixed experimental constraints are relatively similar to one another. Thus, statistics that quantify the relative contributions of accidental deviations-such as measurement error-as compared to systematic deviations-such as individual differences-are critical. We demonstrate that existing replicability statistics, such as intra-class correlation coefficient and fingerprinting, fail to adequately differentiate between accidental and systematic deviations in very simple settings. We therefore propose a novel statistic, discriminability, which quantifies the degree to which an individual's samples are relatively similar to one another, without restricting the data to be univariate, Gaussian, or even Euclidean. Using this statistic, we introduce the possibility of optimizing experimental design via increasing discriminability and prove that optimizing discriminability improves performance bounds in subsequent inference tasks. In extensive simulated and real datasets (focusing on brain imaging and demonstrating on genomics), only optimizing data discriminability improves performance on all subsequent inference tasks for each dataset. We therefore suggest that designing experiments and analyses to optimize discriminability may be a crucial step in solving the replicability crisis, and more generally, mitigating accidental measurement error.

Gamma oscillations are widely seen in the awake and sleeping cerebral cortex, but the exact role of these oscillations is still debated. Here, we used biophysical models to examine how Gamma oscillations may participate to the processing of afferent stimuli. We constructed conductance-based network models of Gamma oscillations, based on different cell types found in cerebral cortex. The models were adjusted to extracellular unit recordings in humans, where Gamma oscillations always coexist with the asynchronous firing mode. We considered three different mechanisms to generate Gamma, first a mechanism based on the interaction between pyramidal neurons and interneurons (PING), second a mechanism in which Gamma is generated by interneuron networks (ING) and third, a mechanism which relies on Gamma oscillations generated by pacemaker chattering neurons (CHING). We find that all three mechanisms generate features consistent with human recordings, but that the ING mechanism is most consistent with the firing rate change inside Gamma bursts seen in the human data. We next evaluated the responsiveness and resonant properties of these networks, contrasting Gamma oscillations with the asynchronous mode. We find that for both slowly-varying stimuli and precisely-timed stimuli, the responsiveness is generally lower during Gamma compared to asynchronous states, while resonant properties are similar around the Gamma band. We could not find conditions where Gamma oscillations were more responsive. We therefore predict that asynchronous states provide the highest responsiveness to external stimuli, while Gamma oscillations tend to overall diminish responsiveness.

Bee-mediated pollination greatly increases the size and weight of tomato fruits. Therefore, distinguishing between the local set of bees-those that are efficient pollinators-is essential to improve the economic returns for farmers. To achieve this, it is important to know the identity of the visiting bees. Nevertheless, the traditional taxonomic identification of bees is not an easy task, requiring the participation of experts and the use of specialized equipment. Due to these limitations, the development and implementation of new technologies for the automatic recognition of bees become relevant. Hence, we aim to verify the capacity of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in recognizing the taxonomic identity of visiting bees to tomato flowers based on the characteristics of their buzzing sounds. We compared the performance of the ML algorithms combined with the Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) and with classifications based solely on the fundamental frequency, leading to a direct comparison between the two approaches. In fact, some classifiers powered by the MFCC-especially the SVM-achieved better performance compared to the randomized and sound frequency-based trials. Moreover, the buzzing sounds produced during sonication were more relevant for the taxonomic recognition of bee species than analysis based on flight sounds alone. On the other hand, the ML classifiers performed better in recognizing bees genera based on flight sounds. Despite that, the maximum accuracy obtained here (73.39% by SVM) is still low compared to ML standards. Further studies analyzing larger recording samples, and applying unsupervised learning systems may yield better classification performance. Therefore, ML techniques could be used to automate the taxonomic recognition of flower-visiting bees of the cultivated tomato and other buzz-pollinated crops. This would be an interesting option for farmers and other professionals who have no experience in bee taxonomy but are interested in improving crop yields by increasing pollination.

We discuss simple models for the transient storage in short-term memory of cortical patterns of activity, all based on the notion that their recall exploits the natural tendency of the cortex to hop from state to state-latching dynamics. We show that in one such model, and in simple spatial memory tasks we have given to human subjects, short-term memory can be limited to similar low capacity by interference effects, in tasks terminated by errors, and can exhibit similar sublinear scaling, when errors are overlooked. The same mechanism can drive serial recall if combined with weak order-encoding plasticity. Finally, even when storing randomly correlated patterns of activity the network demonstrates correlation-driven latching waves, which are reflected at the outer extremes of pattern space.

Working memory is a cognitive function involving the storage and manipulation of latent information over brief intervals of time, thus making it crucial for context-dependent computation. Here, we use a top-down modeling approach to examine network-level mechanisms of working memory, an enigmatic issue and central topic of study in neuroscience. We optimize thousands of recurrent rate-based neural networks on a working memory task and then perform dynamical systems analysis on the ensuing optimized networks, wherein we find that four distinct dynamical mechanisms can emerge. In particular, we show the prevalence of a mechanism in which memories are encoded along slow stable manifolds in the network state space, leading to a phasic neuronal activation profile during memory periods. In contrast to mechanisms in which memories are directly encoded at stable attractors, these networks naturally forget stimuli over time. Despite this seeming functional disadvantage, they are more efficient in terms of how they leverage their attractor landscape and paradoxically, are considerably more robust to noise. Our results provide new hypotheses regarding how working memory function may be encoded within the dynamics of neural circuits.

Interactions within a population shape the spread of infectious diseases but contact patterns between individuals are difficult to access. We hypothesised that key properties of these patterns can be inferred from multiple infection data in longitudinal follow-ups. We developed a simulator for epidemics with multiple infections on networks and analysed the resulting individual infection time series by introducing similarity metrics between hosts based on their multiple infection histories. We find that, depending on infection multiplicity and network sampling, multiple infection summary statistics can recover network properties such as degree distribution. Furthermore, we show that by mining simulation outputs for multiple infection patterns, one can detect immunological interference between pathogens (i.e. the fact that past infections in a host condition future probability of infection). The combination of individual-based simulations and analysis of multiple infection histories opens promising perspectives to infer and validate transmission networks and immunological interference for infectious diseases from longitudinal cohort data.

Computing global motion direction of extended visual objects is a hallmark of primate high-level vision. Although neurons selective for global motion have also been found in mouse visual cortex, it remains unknown whether rodents can combine multiple motion signals into global, integrated percepts. To address this question, we trained two groups of rats to discriminate either gratings (G group) or plaids (i.e., superpositions of gratings with different orientations; P group) drifting horizontally along opposite directions. After the animals learned the task, we applied a visual priming paradigm, where presentation of the target stimulus was preceded by the brief presentation of either a grating or a plaid. The extent to which rat responses to the targets were biased by such prime stimuli provided a measure of the spontaneous, perceived similarity between primes and targets. We found that gratings and plaids, when used as primes, were equally effective at biasing the perception of plaid direction for the rats of the P group. Conversely, for the G group, only the gratings acted as effective prime stimuli, while the plaids failed to alter the perception of grating direction. To interpret these observations, we simulated a decision neuron reading out the representations of gratings and plaids, as conveyed by populations of either component or pattern cells (i.e., local or global motion detectors). We concluded that the findings for the P group are highly consistent with the existence of a population of pattern cells, playing a functional role similar to that demonstrated in primates. We also explored different scenarios that could explain the failure of the plaid stimuli to elicit a sizable priming magnitude for the G group. These simulations yielded testable predictions about the properties of motion representations in rodent visual cortex at the single-cell and circuitry level, thus paving the way to future neurophysiology experiments.

A continuing challenge in modern medicine is the identification of safer and more efficacious drugs. Precision therapeutics, which have one molecular target, have been long promised to be safer and more effective than traditional therapies. This approach has proven to be challenging for multiple reasons including lack of efficacy, rapidly acquired drug resistance, and narrow patient eligibility criteria. An alternative approach is the development of drugs that address the overall disease network by targeting multiple biological targets ('polypharmacology'). Rational development of these molecules will require improved methods for predicting single chemical structures that target multiple drug targets. To address this need, we developed the Multi-Targeting Drug DREAM Challenge, in which we challenged participants to predict single chemical entities that target pro-targets but avoid anti-targets for two unrelated diseases: RET-based tumors and a common form of inherited Tauopathy. Here, we report the results of this DREAM Challenge and the development of two neural network-based machine learning approaches that were applied to the challenge of rational polypharmacology. Together, these platforms provide a potentially useful first step towards developing lead therapeutic compounds that address disease complexity through rational polypharmacology.

Apart from the canonical fingers, palm and thumb domains, the RNA dependent RNA polymerases (RdRp) from the viral order Nidovirales possess two additional domains. Of these, the function of the Nidovirus RdRp associated nucleotidyl transferase domain (NiRAN) remains unanswered. The elucidation of the 3D structure of RdRp from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), provided the first ever insights into the domain organisation and possible functional characteristics of the NiRAN domain. Using in silico tools, we predict that the NiRAN domain assumes a kinase or phosphotransferase like fold and binds nucleoside triphosphates at its proposed active site. Additionally, using molecular docking we have predicted the binding of three widely used kinase inhibitors and five well characterized anti-microbial compounds at the NiRAN domain active site along with their drug-likeliness. For the first time ever, using basic biochemical tools, this study shows the presence of a kinase like activity exhibited by the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp. Interestingly, a well-known kinase inhibitor- Sorafenib showed a significant inhibition and dampened viral load in SARS-CoV-2 infected cells. In line with the current global COVID-19 pandemic urgency and the emergence of newer strains with significantly higher infectivity, this study provides a new anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug target and potential lead compounds for drug repurposing against SARS-CoV-2.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) is one of several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) where there is evidence of asymptomatic human infection but there is uncertainty of the role it plays in transmission and maintenance. To explore possible consequences of asymptomatic infections, particularly in the context of elimination of transmission-a goal set to be achieved by 2030-we propose a novel dynamic transmission model to account for the asymptomatic population. This extends an established framework, basing infection progression on a number of experimental and observation gHAT studies. Asymptomatic gHAT infections include those in people with blood-dwelling trypanosomes, but no discernible symptoms, or those with parasites only detectable in skin. Given current protocols, asymptomatic infection with blood parasites may be diagnosed and treated, based on observable parasitaemia, in contrast to many other diseases for which treatment (and/or diagnosis) may be based on symptomatic infection. We construct a model in which exposed people can either progress to either asymptomatic skin-only parasite infection, which would not be diagnosed through active screening algorithms, or blood-parasite infection, which is likely to be diagnosed if tested. We add extra parameters to the baseline model including different self-cure, recovery, transmission and detection rates for skin-only or blood infections. Performing sensitivity analysis suggests all the new parameters introduced in the asymptomatic model can impact the infection dynamics substantially. Among them, the proportion of exposures resulting in initial skin or blood infection appears the most influential parameter. For some plausible parameterisations, an initial fall in infection prevalence due to interventions could subsequently stagnate even under continued screening due to the formation of a new, lower endemic equilibrium. Excluding this scenario, our results still highlight the possibility for asymptomatic infection to slow down progress towards elimination of transmission. Location-specific model fitting will be needed to determine if and where this could pose a threat.

A current strategy for obtaining haplotype information from several individuals involves short-read sequencing of pooled amplicons, where fragments from each individual is identified by a unique DNA barcode. In this paper, we report a new method to recover the phylogeny of haplotypes from short-read sequences obtained using pooled amplicons from a mixture of individuals, without barcoding. The method, AFPhyloMix, accepts an alignment of the mixture of reads against a reference sequence, obtains the single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNP) patterns along the alignment, and constructs the phylogenetic tree according to the SNP patterns. AFPhyloMix adopts a Bayesian inference model to estimate the phylogeny of the haplotypes and their relative abundances, given that the number of haplotypes is known. In our simulations, AFPhyloMix achieved at least 80% accuracy at recovering the phylogenies and relative abundances of the constituent haplotypes, for mixtures with up to 15 haplotypes. AFPhyloMix also worked well on a real data set of kangaroo mitochondrial DNA sequences.

The processing of agricultural wastes towards extraction of renewable resources is recently being considered as a promising alternative to conventional biofuel production. The degradation of agricultural residues is a complex chemical process that is currently time intensive and costly. Various pre-treatment methods are being investigated to determine the subsequent modification of the material and the main obstacles in increasing the enzymatic saccharification. In this study, we present a computational model that complements the experimental approaches. We decipher how the three-dimensional structure of the substrate impacts the saccharification dynamics. We model a cell wall microfibril composed of cellulose and surrounded by hemicellulose and lignin, with various relative abundances and arrangements. This substrate is subjected to digestion by different cocktails of well characterized enzymes. The saccharification dynamics is simulated in silico using a stochastic procedure based on a Gillespie algorithm. As we additionally implement a fitting procedure that optimizes the parameters of the simulation runs, we are able to reproduce experimental saccharification time courses for corn stover. Our model highlights the synergistic action of enzymes, and confirms the linear decrease of sugar conversion when either lignin content or crystallinity of the substrate increases. Importantly, we show that considering the crystallinity of cellulose in addition to the substrate composition is essential to interpret experimental saccharification data. Finally, our findings support the hypothesis of xylan being partially crystalline.

Reproduction is one of the requirements for evolution and a defining feature of life. Yet, across the tree of life, organisms reproduce in many different ways. Groups of cells (e.g., multicellular organisms, colonial microbes, or multispecies biofilms) divide by releasing propagules that can be single-celled or multicellular. What conditions determine the number and size of reproductive propagules? In multicellular organisms, existing theory suggests that single-cell propagules prevent the accumulation of deleterious mutations (e.g., cheaters). However, groups of cells, such as biofilms, sometimes contain multiple metabolically interdependent species. This creates a reproductive dilemma: small daughter groups, which prevent the accumulation of cheaters, are also unlikely to contain the species diversity that is required for ecological success. Here, we developed an individual-based, multilevel selection model to investigate how such multi-species groups can resolve this dilemma. By tracking the dynamics of groups of cells that reproduce by fragmenting into smaller groups, we identified fragmentation modes that can maintain cooperative interactions. We systematically varied the fragmentation mode and calculated the maximum mutation rate that communities can withstand before being driven to extinction by the accumulation of cheaters. We find that for groups consisting of a single species, the optimal fragmentation mode consists of releasing single-cell propagules. For multi-species groups we find various optimal strategies. With migration between groups, single-cell propagules are favored. Without migration, larger propagules sizes are optimal; in this case, group-size dependent fissioning rates can prevent the accumulation of cheaters. Our work shows that multi-species groups can evolve reproductive strategies that allow them to maintain cooperative interactions.

Many methods have been developed for statistical analysis of microbial community profiles, but due to the complex nature of typical microbiome measurements (e.g. sparsity, zero-inflation, non-independence, and compositionality) and of the associated underlying biology, it is difficult to compare or evaluate such methods within a single systematic framework. To address this challenge, we developed SparseDOSSA (Sparse Data Observations for the Simulation of Synthetic Abundances): a statistical model of microbial ecological population structure, which can be used to parameterize real-world microbial community profiles and to simulate new, realistic profiles of known structure for methods evaluation. Specifically, SparseDOSSA's model captures marginal microbial feature abundances as a zero-inflated log-normal distribution, with additional model components for absolute cell counts and the sequence read generation process, microbe-microbe, and microbe-environment interactions. Together, these allow fully known covariance structure between synthetic features (i.e. "taxa") or between features and "phenotypes" to be simulated for method benchmarking. Here, we demonstrate SparseDOSSA's performance for 1) accurately modeling human-associated microbial population profiles; 2) generating synthetic communities with controlled population and ecological structures; 3) spiking-in true positive synthetic associations to benchmark analysis methods; and 4) recapitulating an end-to-end mouse microbiome feeding experiment. Together, these represent the most common analysis types in assessment of real microbial community environmental and epidemiological statistics, thus demonstrating SparseDOSSA's utility as a general-purpose aid for modeling communities and evaluating quantitative methods. An open-source implementation is available at http://huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu/sparsedossa2.

Nanopore sequencing device analysis systems simultaneously generate multiple picoamperage current signals representing the passage of DNA or RNA nucleotides ratcheted through a biomolecule nanopore array by motor proteins. Squiggles are a noisy and time-distorted representation of an underlying nucleotide sequence, "gold standard model", due to experimental and algorithmic artefacts. Other research fields use dynamic time warped-space averaging (DTWA) algorithms to produce a consensus signal from multiple time-warped sources while preserving key features distorted by standard, linear-averaging approaches. We compared the ability of DTW Barycentre averaging (DBA), minimize mean (MM) and stochastic sub-gradient descent (SSG) DTWA algorithms to generate a consensus signal from squiggle-space ensembles of RNA molecules Enolase, Sequin R1-71-1 and Sequin R2-55-3 without knowledge of their associated gold standard model. We propose techniques to identify the leader and distorted squiggle features prior to DTWA consensus generation. New visualization and warping-path metrics are introduced to compare consensus signals and the best estimate of the "true" consensus, the study's gold standard model. The DBA consensus was the best match to the gold standard for both Sequin studies but was outperformed in the Enolase study. Given an underlying common characteristic across a squiggle ensemble, we objectively evaluate a novel "voting scheme" that improves the local similarity between the consensus signal and a given fraction of the squiggle ensemble. While the gold standard is not used during voting, the increase in the match of the final voted-on consensus to the underlying Enolase and Sequin gold standard sequences provides an indirect success measure for the proposed voting procedure in two ways: First is the decreased least squares warped distance between the final consensus and the gold model, and second, the voting generates a final consensus length closer to the known underlying RNA biomolecule length. The results suggest considerable potential in marrying squiggle analysis and voted-on DTWA consensus signals to provide low-noise, low-distortion signals. This will lead to improved accuracy in detecting nucleotides and their deviation model due to chemical modifications (a.k.a. epigenetic information). The proposed combination of ensemble voting and DTWA has application in other research fields involving time-distorted, high entropy signals.

Although most genes share their chromosomal neighbourhood with other genes, distribution of genes has not been explored in the context of individual organ development; the common focus of developmental biology studies. Because developmental processes are often associated with initially subtle changes in gene expression, here we explored whether neighbouring genes are informative in the identification of differentially expressed genes. First, we quantified the chromosomal neighbourhood patterns of genes having related functional roles in the mammalian genome. Although the majority of protein coding genes have at least five neighbours within 1 Mb window around each gene, very few of these neighbours regulate development of the same organ. Analyses of transcriptomes of developing mouse molar teeth revealed that whereas expression of genes regulating tooth development changes, their neighbouring genes show no marked changes, irrespective of their level of expression. Finally, we test whether inclusion of gene neighbourhood in the analyses of differential expression could provide additional benefits. For the analyses, we developed an algorithm, called DELocal that identifies differentially expressed genes by comparing their expression changes to changes in adjacent genes in their chromosomal regions. Our results show that DELocal removes detection bias towards large changes in expression, thereby allowing identification of even subtle changes in development. Future studies, including the detection of differential expression, may benefit from, and further characterize the significance of gene-gene neighbour relationships.

Behavioral phenotyping of model organisms has played an important role in unravelling the complexities of animal behavior. Techniques for classifying behavior often rely on easily identified changes in posture and motion. However, such approaches are likely to miss complex behaviors that cannot be readily distinguished by eye (e.g., behaviors produced by high dimensional dynamics). To explore this issue, we focus on the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans, where behaviors have been extensively recorded and classified. Using a dynamical systems lens, we identify high dimensional, nonlinear causal relationships between four basic shapes that describe worm motion (eigenmodes, also called "eigenworms"). We find relationships between all pairs of eigenmodes, but the timescales of the interactions vary between pairs and across individuals. Using these varying timescales, we create "interaction profiles" to represent an individual's behavioral dynamics. As desired, these profiles are able to distinguish well-known behavioral states: i.e., the profiles for foraging individuals are distinct from those of individuals exhibiting an escape response. More importantly, we find that interaction profiles can distinguish high dimensional behaviors among divergent mutant strains that were previously classified as phenotypically similar. Specifically, we find it is able to detect phenotypic behavioral differences not previously identified in strains related to dysfunction of hermaphrodite-specific neurons.

The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.