Sound localization relies on minute differences in the timing and intensity of sound arriving at both ears. Neurons of the lateral superior olive (LSO) in the brainstem process these interaural disparities by precisely detecting excitatory and inhibitory synaptic inputs. Aging generally induces selective loss of inhibitory synaptic transmission along the entire auditory pathways, including the reduction of inhibitory afferents to LSO. Electrophysiological recordings in animals, however, reported only minor functional changes in aged LSO. The perplexing discrepancy between anatomical and physiological observations suggests a role for activity-dependent plasticity that would help neurons retain their binaural tuning function despite loss of inhibitory inputs. To explore this hypothesis, we use a computational model of LSO to investigate mechanisms underlying the observed functional robustness against age-related loss of inhibitory inputs. The LSO model is an integrate-and-fire type enhanced with a small amount of low-voltage activated potassium conductance and driven with (in)homogeneous Poissonian inputs. Without synaptic input loss, model spike rates varied smoothly with interaural time and level differences, replicating empirical tuning properties of LSO. By reducing the number of inhibitory afferents to mimic age-related loss of inhibition, overall spike rates increased, which negatively impacted binaural tuning performance, measured as modulation depth and neuronal discriminability. To simulate a recovery process compensating for the loss of inhibitory fibers, the strength of remaining inhibitory inputs was increased. By this modification, effects of inhibition loss on binaural tuning were considerably weakened, leading to an improvement of functional performance. These neuron-level observations were further confirmed by population modeling, in which binaural tuning properties of multiple LSO neurons were varied according to empirical measurements. These results demonstrate the plausibility that homeostatic plasticity could effectively counteract known age-dependent loss of inhibitory fibers in LSO and suggest that behavioral degradation of sound localization might originate from changes occurring more centrally.

Place cells, spatially responsive hippocampal cells, provide the neural substrate supporting navigation and spatial memory. Historically most studies of these neurons have used electrophysiological recordings from implanted electrodes but optical methods, measuring intracellular calcium, are becoming increasingly common. Several methods have been proposed as a means to identify place cells based on their calcium activity but there is no common standard and it is unclear how reliable different approaches are. Here we tested four methods that have previously been applied to two-photon hippocampal imaging or electrophysiological data, using both model datasets and real imaging data. These methods use different parameters to identify place cells, including the peak activity in the place field, compared to other locations (the Peak method); the stability of cells' activity over repeated traversals of an environment (Stability method); a combination of these parameters with the size of the place field (Combination method); and the spatial information held by the cells (Information method). The methods performed differently from each other on both model and real data. In real datasets, vastly different numbers of place cells were identified using the four methods, with little overlap between the populations identified as place cells. Therefore, choice of place cell detection method dramatically affects the number and properties of identified cells. Ultimately, we recommend the Peak method be used in future studies to identify place cell populations, as this method is robust to moderate variations in place field within a session, and makes no inherent assumptions about the spatial information in place fields, unless there is an explicit theoretical reason for detecting cells with more narrowly defined properties.

This paper describes a data-driven simulation study that explores the relative impact of several low-cost and practical non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in an outpatient hospital dialysis unit. The interventions considered include: (i) voluntary self-isolation of healthcare personnel (HCPs) with symptoms; (ii) a program of active syndromic surveillance and compulsory isolation of HCPs; (iii) the use of masks or respirators by patients and HCPs; (iv) improved social distancing among HCPs; (v) increased physical separation of dialysis stations; and (vi) patient isolation combined with preemptive isolation of exposed HCPs. Our simulations show that under conditions that existed prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, extremely high rates of COVID-19 infection can result in a dialysis unit. In simulations under worst-case modeling assumptions, a combination of relatively inexpensive interventions such as requiring surgical masks for everyone, encouraging social distancing between healthcare professionals (HCPs), slightly increasing the physical distance between dialysis stations, and-once the first symptomatic patient is detected-isolating that patient, replacing the HCP having had the most exposure to that patient, and relatively short-term use of N95 respirators by other HCPs can lead to a substantial reduction in both the attack rate and the likelihood of any spread beyond patient zero. For example, in a scenario with R0 = 3.0, 60% presymptomatic viral shedding, and a dialysis patient being the infection source, the attack rate falls from 87.8% at baseline to 34.6% with this intervention bundle. Furthermore, the likelihood of having no additional infections increases from 6.2% at baseline to 32.4% with this intervention bundle.

If they undergo new mutations at each replication cycle, why are RNA viral genomes so fragile, with most mutations being either strongly deleterious or lethal? Here we provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the hypothesis that genetic fragility is partly an evolutionary response to the multiple population bottlenecks experienced by viral populations at various stages of their life cycles. Modelling within-host viral populations as multi-type branching processes, we show that mutational fragility lowers the rate at which Muller's ratchet clicks and increases the survival probability through multiple bottlenecks. In the context of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model, we find that the attack rate of fragile viral strains can exceed that of more robust strains, particularly at low infectivities and high mutation rates. Our findings highlight the importance of demographic events such as transmission bottlenecks in shaping the genetic architecture of viral pathogens.

Millions of people worldwide are affected by peripheral nerve injuries (PNI), involving billions of dollars in healthcare costs. Common outcomes for patients include paralysis and loss of sensation, often leading to lifelong pain and disability. Engineered Neural Tissue (EngNT) is being developed as an alternative to the current treatments for large-gap PNIs that show underwhelming functional recovery in many cases. EngNT repair constructs are composed of a stabilised hydrogel cylinder, surrounded by a sheath of material, to mimic the properties of nerve tissue. The technology also enables the spatial seeding of therapeutic cells in the hydrogel to promote nerve regeneration. The identification of mechanisms leading to maximal nerve regeneration and to functional recovery is a central challenge in the design of EngNT repair constructs. Using in vivo experiments in isolation is costly and time-consuming, offering a limited insight on the mechanisms underlying the performance of a given repair construct. To bridge this gap, we derive a cell-solute model and apply it to the case of EngNT repair constructs seeded with therapeutic cells which produce vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) under low oxygen conditions to promote vascularisation in the construct. The model comprises a set of coupled non-linear diffusion-reaction equations describing the evolving cell population along with its interactions with oxygen and VEGF fields during the first 24h after transplant into the nerve injury site. This model allows us to evaluate a wide range of repair construct designs (e.g. cell-seeding strategy, sheath material, culture conditions), the idea being that designs performing well over a short timescale could be shortlisted for in vivo trials. In particular, our results suggest that seeding cells beyond a certain density threshold is detrimental regardless of the situation considered, opening new avenues for future nerve tissue engineering.

Update of bioRxiv. 2020 Aug 10;:

Widespread school closures occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because closures are costly and damaging, many jurisdictions have since reopened schools with control measures in place. Early evidence indicated that schools were low risk and children were unlikely to be very infectious, but it is becoming clear that children and youth can acquire and transmit COVID-19 in school settings and that transmission clusters and outbreaks can be large. We describe the contrasting literature on school transmission, and argue that the apparent discrepancy can be reconciled by heterogeneity, or "overdispersion" in transmission, with many exposures yielding little to no risk of onward transmission, but some unfortunate exposures causing sizeable onward transmission. In addition, respiratory viral loads are as high in children and youth as in adults, pre- and asymptomatic transmission occur, and the possibility of aerosol transmission has been established. We use a stochastic individual-based model to find the implications of these combined observations for cluster sizes and control measures. We consider both individual and environment/activity contributions to the transmission rate, as both are known to contribute to variability in transmission. We find that even small heterogeneities in these contributions result in highly variable transmission cluster sizes in the classroom setting, with clusters ranging from 1 to 20 individuals in a class of 25. None of the mitigation protocols we modeled, initiated by a positive test in a symptomatic individual, are able to prevent large transmission clusters unless the transmission rate is low (in which case large clusters do not occur in any case). Among the measures we modeled, only rapid universal monitoring (for example by regular, onsite, pooled testing) accomplished this prevention. We suggest approaches and the rationale for mitigating these larger clusters, even if they are expected to be rare.

Parkinson's disease motor symptoms are associated with an increase in subthalamic nucleus beta band oscillatory power. However, these oscillations are phasic, and there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that beta burst duration may be of critical importance to motor symptoms. This makes insights into the dynamics of beta bursting generation valuable, in particular to refine closed-loop deep brain stimulation in Parkinson's disease. In this study, we ask the question "Can average burst duration reveal how dynamics change between the ON and OFF medication states?". Our analysis of local field potentials from the subthalamic nucleus demonstrates using linear surrogates that the system generating beta oscillations is more likely to act in a non-linear regime OFF medication and that the change in a non-linearity measure is correlated with motor impairment. In addition, we pinpoint the simplest dynamical changes that could be responsible for changes in the temporal patterning of beta oscillations between medication states by fitting to data biologically inspired models, and simpler beta envelope models. Finally, we show that the non-linearity can be directly extracted from average burst duration profiles under the assumption of constant noise in envelope models. This reveals that average burst duration profiles provide a window into burst dynamics, which may underlie the success of burst duration as a biomarker. In summary, we demonstrate a relationship between average burst duration profiles, dynamics of the system generating beta oscillations, and motor impairment, which puts us in a better position to understand the pathology and improve therapies such as deep brain stimulation.

Electrodermal activity (EDA) is a direct read-out of sweat-induced changes in the skin's electrical conductance. Sympathetically-mediated pulsatile changes in skin sweat measured as EDA resemble an integrate-and-fire process, which yields an inverse Gaussian model as the inter-pulse interval distribution. We have previously showed that the inter-pulse intervals in EDA follow an inverse Gaussian distribution. However, the statistical structure of EDA pulse amplitudes has not yet been characterized based on the physiology. Expanding upon the integrate-and-fire nature of sweat glands, we hypothesized that the amplitude of an EDA pulse is proportional to the excess volume of sweat produced compared to what is required to just reach the surface of the skin. We modeled this as the difference of two inverse Gaussian models for each pulse, one which represents the time required to produce just enough sweat to rise to the surface of the skin and one which represents the time requires to produce the actual volume of sweat. We proposed and tested a series of four simplifications of our hypothesis, ranging from a single difference of inverse Gaussians to a single simple inverse Gaussian. We also tested four additional models for comparison, including the lognormal and gamma distributions. All models were tested on EDA data from two subject cohorts, 11 healthy volunteers during 1 hour of quiet wakefulness and a different set of 11 healthy volunteers during approximately 3 hours of controlled propofol sedation. All four models which represent simplifications of our hypothesis outperformed other models across all 22 subjects, as measured by Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), as well as mean and maximum distance from the diagonal on a quantile-quantile plot. Our broader model set of four simplifications offered a useful framework to enhance further statistical descriptions of EDA pulse amplitudes. Some of the simplifications prioritize fit near the mode of the distribution, while others prioritize fit near the tail. With this new insight, we can summarize the physiologically-relevant amplitude information in EDA with at most four parameters. Our findings establish that physiologically based probability models provide parsimonious and accurate description of temporal and amplitude characteristics in EDA.

Erratum in PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Dec 20;17(12):e1009695.

Human immunogenetic variation in the form of HLA and KIR types has been shown to be strongly associated with a multitude of immune-related phenotypes. However, association studies involving immunogenetic loci most commonly involve simple analyses of classical HLA allelic diversity, resulting in limitations regarding the interpretability and reproducibility of results. We here present MiDAS, a comprehensive R package for immunogenetic data transformation and statistical analysis. MiDAS recodes input data in the form of HLA alleles and KIR types into biologically meaningful variables, allowing HLA amino acid fine mapping, analyses of HLA evolutionary divergence as well as experimentally validated HLA-KIR interactions. Further, MiDAS enables comprehensive statistical association analysis workflows with phenotypes of diverse measurement scales. MiDAS thus closes the gap between the inference of immunogenetic variation and its efficient utilization to make relevant discoveries related to immune and disease biology. It is freely available under a MIT license.

Drug-drug interactions account for up to 30% of adverse drug reactions. Increasing prevalence of electronic health records (EHRs) offers a unique opportunity to build machine learning algorithms to identify drug-drug interactions that drive adverse events. In this study, we investigated hospitalizations' data to study drug interactions with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS) that result in drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We propose a logistic regression based machine learning algorithm that unearths several known interactions from an EHR dataset of about 400,000 hospitalization. Our proposed modeling framework is successful in detecting 87.5% of the positive controls, which are defined by drugs known to interact with diclofenac causing an increased risk of DILI, and correctly ranks aggregate risk of DILI for eight commonly prescribed NSAIDs. We found that our modeling framework is particularly successful in inferring associations of drug-drug interactions from relatively small EHR datasets. Furthermore, we have identified a novel and potentially hepatotoxic interaction that might occur during concomitant use of meloxicam and esomeprazole, which are commonly prescribed together to allay NSAID-induced gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Empirically, we validate our approach against prior methods for signal detection on EHR datasets, in which our proposed approach outperforms all the compared methods across most metrics, such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).

As you read this text, your eyes make saccades that guide your fovea from one word to the next. Accuracy of these movements require the brain to monitor and learn from visual errors. A current model suggests that learning is supported by two different adaptive processes, one fast (high error sensitivity, low retention), and the other slow (low error sensitivity, high retention). Here, we searched for signatures of these hypothesized processes and found that following experience of a visual error, there was an adaptive change in the motor commands of the subsequent saccade. Surprisingly, this adaptation was not uniformly expressed throughout the movement. Rather, after experience of a single error, the adaptive response in the subsequent trial was limited to the deceleration period. After repeated exposure to the same error, the acceleration period commands also adapted, and exhibited resistance to forgetting during set-breaks. In contrast, the deceleration period commands adapted more rapidly, but suffered from poor retention during these same breaks. State-space models suggested that acceleration and deceleration periods were supported by a shared adaptive state which re-aimed the saccade, as well as two separate processes which resembled a two-state model: one that learned slowly and contributed primarily via acceleration period commands, and another that learned rapidly but contributed primarily via deceleration period commands.

Recent experiments in the developing mammalian visual cortex have revealed that gap junctions couple excitatory cells and potentially influence the formation of chemical synapses. In particular, cells that were coupled by a gap junction during development tend to share an orientation preference and are preferentially coupled by a chemical synapse in the adult cortex, a property that is diminished when gap junctions are blocked. In this work, we construct a simplified model of the developing mouse visual cortex including spike-timing-dependent plasticity of both the feedforward synaptic inputs and recurrent cortical synapses. We use this model to show that synchrony among gap-junction-coupled cells underlies their preference to form strong recurrent synapses and develop similar orientation preference; this effect decreases with an increase in coupling density. Additionally, we demonstrate that gap-junction coupling works, together with the relative timing of synaptic development of the feedforward and recurrent synapses, to determine the resulting cortical map of orientation preference.

PCR amplification plays an integral role in the measurement of mixed microbial communities via high-throughput DNA sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene. Yet PCR is also known to introduce multiple forms of bias in 16S rRNA studies. Here we present a paired modeling and experimental approach to characterize and mitigate PCR NPM-bias (PCR bias from non-primer-mismatch sources) in microbiota surveys. We use experimental data from mock bacterial communities to validate our approach and human gut microbiota samples to characterize PCR NPM-bias under real-world conditions. Our results suggest that PCR NPM-bias can skew estimates of microbial relative abundances by a factor of 4 or more, but that this bias can be mitigated using log-ratio linear models.

This paper uses constructs from machine learning to define pairs of learning tasks that either shared or did not share a common subspace. Human subjects then learnt these tasks using a feedback-based approach and we hypothesised that learning would be boosted for shared subspaces. Our findings broadly supported this hypothesis with either better performance on the second task if it shared the same subspace as the first, or positive correlations over task performance for shared subspaces. These empirical findings were compared to the behaviour of a Neural Network model trained using sequential Bayesian learning and human performance was found to be consistent with a minimal capacity variant of this model. Networks with an increased representational capacity, and networks without Bayesian learning, did not show these transfer effects. We propose that the concept of shared subspaces provides a useful framework for the experimental study of human multitask and transfer learning.

Formation of the ventral furrow in the Drosophila embryo relies on the apical constriction of cells in the ventral region to produce bending forces that drive tissue invagination. In our recent paper we observed that apical constrictions during the initial phase of ventral furrow formation produce elongated patterns of cellular constriction chains prior to invagination and argued that these are indicative of tensile stress feedback. Here, we quantitatively analyze the constriction patterns preceding ventral furrow formation and find that they are consistent with the predictions of our active-granular-fluid model of a monolayer of mechanically coupled stress-sensitive constricting particles. Our model shows that tensile feedback causes constriction chains to develop along underlying precursor tensile stress chains that gradually strengthen with subsequent cellular constrictions. As seen in both our model and available optogenetic experiments, this mechanism allows constriction chains to penetrate or circumvent zones of reduced cell contractility, thus increasing the robustness of ventral furrow formation to spatial variation of cell contractility by rescuing cellular constrictions in the disrupted regions.

A critical facet of adjusting one's behaviour after succeeding or failing at a task is assigning responsibility for the ultimate outcome. Humans have trait- and state-like tendencies to implicate aspects of their own behaviour (called 'internal' ascriptions) or facets of the particular task or Lady Luck ('chance'). However, how these tendencies interact with actual performance is unclear. We designed a novel task in which subjects had to learn the likelihood of achieving their goals, and the extent to which this depended on their efforts. High internality (Levenson I-score) was associated with decision making patterns that are less vulnerable to failure. Our computational analyses suggested that this depended heavily on the adjustment in the perceived achievability of riskier goals following failure. We found beliefs about chance not to be explanatory of choice behaviour in our task. Beliefs about powerful others were strong predictors of behaviour, but only when subjects lacked substantial influence over the outcome. Our results provide an evidentiary basis for heuristics and learning differences that underlie the formation and maintenance of control expectations by the self.

In crowding, perception of a target deteriorates in the presence of nearby flankers. Traditionally, it is thought that visual crowding obeys Bouma's law, i.e., all elements within a certain distance interfere with the target, and that adding more elements always leads to stronger crowding. Crowding is predominantly studied using sparse displays (a target surrounded by a few flankers). However, many studies have shown that this approach leads to wrong conclusions about human vision. Van der Burg and colleagues proposed a paradigm to measure crowding in dense displays using genetic algorithms. Displays were selected and combined over several generations to maximize human performance. In contrast to Bouma's law, only the target's nearest neighbours affected performance. Here, we tested various models to explain these results. We used the same genetic algorithm, but instead of selecting displays based on human performance we selected displays based on the model's outputs. We found that all models based on the traditional feedforward pooling framework of vision were unable to reproduce human behaviour. In contrast, all models involving a dedicated grouping stage explained the results successfully. We show how traditional models can be improved by adding a grouping stage.

Biomechanical forces intimately contribute to cardiac morphogenesis. However, volumetric imaging to investigate the cardiac mechanics with high temporal and spatial resolution remains an imaging challenge. We hereby integrated light-field microscopy (LFM) with light-sheet fluorescence microscopy (LSFM), coupled with a retrospective gating method, to simultaneously access myocardial contraction and intracardiac blood flow at 200 volumes per second. While LSFM allows for the reconstruction of the myocardial function, LFM enables instantaneous acquisition of the intracardiac blood cells traversing across the valves. We further adopted deformable image registration to quantify the ventricular wall displacement and particle tracking velocimetry to monitor intracardiac blood flow. The integration of LFM and LSFM enabled the time-dependent tracking of the individual blood cells and the differential rates of segmental wall displacement during a cardiac cycle. Taken together, we demonstrated a hybrid system, coupled with our image analysis pipeline, to simultaneously capture the myocardial wall motion with intracardiac blood flow during cardiac development.

Sample size calculations are an essential component of the design and evaluation of scientific studies. However, there is a lack of clear guidance for determining the sample size needed for phylogenetic studies, which are becoming an essential part of studying pathogen transmission. We introduce a statistical framework for determining the number of true infector-infectee transmission pairs identified by a phylogenetic study, given the size and population coverage of that study. We then show how characteristics of the criteria used to determine linkage and aspects of the study design can influence our ability to correctly identify transmission links, in sometimes counterintuitive ways. We test the overall approach using outbreak simulations and provide guidance for calculating the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage criteria, the key inputs to our approach. The framework is freely available as the R package phylosamp, and is broadly applicable to designing and evaluating a wide array of pathogen phylogenetic studies.

Theta and gamma rhythms and their cross-frequency coupling play critical roles in perception, attention, learning, and memory. Available data suggest that forebrain acetylcholine (ACh) signaling promotes theta-gamma coupling, although the mechanism has not been identified. Recent evidence suggests that cholinergic signaling is both temporally and spatially constrained, in contrast to the traditional notion of slow, spatially homogeneous, and diffuse neuromodulation. Here, we find that spatially constrained cholinergic stimulation can generate theta-modulated gamma rhythms. Using biophysically-based excitatory-inhibitory (E-I) neural network models, we simulate the effects of ACh on neural excitability by varying the conductance of a muscarinic receptor-regulated K+ current. In E-I networks with local excitatory connectivity and global inhibitory connectivity, we demonstrate that theta-gamma-coupled firing patterns emerge in ACh modulated network regions. Stable gamma-modulated firing arises within regions with high ACh signaling, while theta or mixed theta-gamma activity occurs at the peripheries of these regions. High gamma activity also alternates between different high-ACh regions, at theta frequency. Our results are the first to indicate a causal role for spatially heterogenous ACh signaling in the emergence of localized theta-gamma rhythmicity. Our findings also provide novel insights into mechanisms by which ACh signaling supports the brain region-specific attentional processing of sensory information.

Slow-wave sleep cortical brain activity, conformed by slow-oscillations and sleep spindles, plays a key role in memory consolidation. The increase of the power of the slow-wave events, obtained by auditory sensory stimulation, positively correlates with memory consolidation performance. However, little is known about the experimental protocol maximizing this effect, which could be induced by the power of slow-oscillation, the number of sleep spindles, or the timing of both events' co-occurrence. Using a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, we studied the effect of several stimulation protocols, varying the pulse shape, duration, amplitude, and frequency, as well as a target-phase using a closed-loop approach. We evaluated the effect of these parameters on slow-oscillations (SO) and sleep-spindles (SP), considering: (i) the power at the frequency bands of interest, (ii) the number of SO and SP, (iii) co-occurrences between SO and SP, and (iv) synchronization of SP with the up-peak of the SO. The first three targets are maximized using a decreasing ramp pulse with a pulse duration of 50 ms. Also, we observed a reduction in the number of SO when increasing the stimulus energy by rising its amplitude. To assess the target-phase parameter, we applied closed-loop stimulation at 0°, 45°, and 90° of the phase of the narrow-band filtered ongoing activity, at 0.85 Hz as central frequency. The 0° stimulation produces better results in the power and number of SO and SP than the rhythmic or random stimulation. On the other hand, stimulating at 45° or 90° change the timing distribution of spindles centers but with fewer co-occurrences than rhythmic and 0° phase. Finally, we propose the application of closed-loop stimulation at the rising zero-cross point using pulses with a decreasing ramp shape and 50 ms of duration for future experimental work.

The condensin protein complex compacts chromatin during mitosis using its DNA-loop extrusion activity. Previous studies proposed scrunching and loop-capture models as molecular mechanisms for the loop extrusion process, both of which assume the binding of double-strand (ds) DNA to the hinge domain formed at the interface of the condensin subunits Smc2 and Smc4. However, how the hinge domain contacts dsDNA has remained unknown. Here, we conducted atomic force microscopy imaging of the budding yeast condensin holo-complex and used this data as basis for coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations to model the hinge structure in a transient open conformation. We then simulated the dsDNA binding to open and closed hinge conformations, predicting that dsDNA binds to the outside surface when closed and to the outside and inside surfaces when open. Our simulations also suggested that the hinge can close around dsDNA bound to the inside surface. Based on these simulation results, we speculate that the conformational change of the hinge domain might be essential for the dsDNA binding regulation and play roles in condensin-mediated DNA-loop extrusion.

Comment in Nature. 2022 Aug;608(7921):229-230.

We demonstrate a modeling and computational framework that allows for rapid screening of thousands of potential network designs for particular dynamic behavior. To illustrate this capability we consider the problem of hysteresis, a prerequisite for construction of robust bistable switches and hence a cornerstone for construction of more complex synthetic circuits. We evaluate and rank most three node networks according to their ability to robustly exhibit hysteresis where robustness is measured with respect to parameters over multiple dynamic phenotypes. Focusing on the highest ranked networks, we demonstrate how additional robustness and design constraints can be applied. We compare our results to more traditional methods based on specific parameterization of ordinary differential equation models and demonstrate a strong qualitative match at a small fraction of the computational cost.

We describe a mathematical model for the aggregation of starved first-stage C elegans larvae (L1s). We propose that starved L1s produce and respond chemotactically to two labile diffusible chemical signals, a short-range attractant and a longer range repellent. This model takes the mathematical form of three coupled partial differential equations, one that describes the movement of the worms and one for each of the chemical signals. Numerical solution of these equations produced a pattern of aggregates that resembled that of worm aggregates observed in experiments. We also describe the identification of a sensory receptor gene, srh-2, whose expression is induced under conditions that promote L1 aggregation. Worms whose srh-2 gene has been knocked out form irregularly shaped aggregates. Our model suggests this phenotype may be explained by the mutant worms slowing their movement more quickly than the wild type.

Influenza incidence forecasting is used to facilitate better health system planning and could potentially be used to allow at-risk individuals to modify their behavior during a severe seasonal influenza epidemic or a novel respiratory pandemic. For example, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs an annual competition to forecast influenza-like illness (ILI) at the regional and national levels in the US, based on a standard discretized incidence scale. Here, we use a suite of forecasting models to analyze type-specific incidence at the smaller spatial scale of clusters of nearby counties. We used data from point-of-care (POC) diagnostic machines over three seasons, in 10 clusters, capturing: 57 counties; 1,061,891 total specimens; and 173,909 specimens positive for Influenza A. Total specimens were closely correlated with comparable CDC ILI data. Mechanistic models were substantially more accurate when forecasting influenza A positive POC data than total specimen POC data, especially at longer lead times. Also, models that fit subpopulations of the cluster (individual counties) separately were better able to forecast clusters than were models that directly fit to aggregated cluster data. Public health authorities may wish to consider developing forecasting pipelines for type-specific POC data in addition to ILI data. Simple mechanistic models will likely improve forecast accuracy when applied at small spatial scales to pathogen-specific data before being scaled to larger geographical units and broader syndromic data. Highly local forecasts may enable new public health messaging to encourage at-risk individuals to temporarily reduce their social mixing during seasonal peaks and guide public health intervention policy during potentially severe novel influenza pandemics.

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease is higher in individuals with recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection compared to individuals with more remote, established infection. We aimed to define blood-based biomarkers to distinguish between recent and remote infection, which would allow targeting of recently infected individuals for preventive TB treatment. We hypothesized that integration of multiple immune measurements would outperform the diagnostic performance of a single biomarker. Analysis was performed on different components of the immune system, including adaptive and innate responses to mycobacteria, measured on recently and remotely M.tb infected adolescents. The datasets were standardized using variance stabilizing scaling and missing values were imputed using a multiple factor analysis-based approach. For data integration, we compared the performance of a Multiple Tuning Parameter Elastic Net (MTP-EN) to a standard EN model, which was built to the individual adaptive and innate datasets. Biomarkers with non-zero coefficients from the optimal single data EN models were then isolated to build logistic regression models. A decision tree and random forest model were used for statistical confirmation. We found no difference in the predictive performances of the optimal MTP-EN model and the EN model [average area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) = 0.93]. EN models built to the integrated dataset and the adaptive dataset yielded identically high AUROC values (average AUROC = 0.91), while the innate data EN model performed poorly (average AUROC = 0.62). Results also indicated that integration of adaptive and innate biomarkers did not outperform the adaptive biomarkers alone (Likelihood Ratio Test χ2 = 6.09, p = 0.808). From a total of 193 variables, the level of HLA-DR on ESAT6/CFP10-specific Th1 cytokine-expressing CD4 cells was the strongest biomarker for recent M.tb infection. The discriminatory ability of this variable was confirmed in both tree-based models. A single biomarker measuring M.tb-specific T cell activation yielded excellent diagnostic potential to distinguish between recent and remote M.tb infection.

The chemical master equation and its continuum approximations are indispensable tools in the modeling of chemical reaction networks. These are routinely used to capture complex nonlinear phenomena such as multimodality as well as transient events such as first-passage times, that accurately characterise a plethora of biological and chemical processes. However, some mechanisms, such as heterogeneous cellular growth or phenotypic selection at the population level, cannot be represented by the master equation and thus have been tackled separately. In this work, we propose a unifying framework that augments the chemical master equation to capture such auxiliary dynamics, and we develop and analyse a numerical solver that accurately simulates the system dynamics. We showcase these contributions by casting a diverse array of examples from the literature within this framework and applying the solver to both match and extend previous studies. Analytical calculations performed for each example validate our numerical results and benchmark the solver implementation.

Central place foraging pollinators tend to develop multi-destination routes (traplines) to exploit patchily distributed plant resources. While the formation of traplines by individual pollinators has been studied in detail, how populations of foragers use resources in a common area is an open question, difficult to address experimentally. We explored conditions for the emergence of resource partitioning among traplining bees using agent-based models built from experimental data of bumblebees foraging on artificial flowers. In the models, bees learn to develop routes as a consequence of feedback loops that change their probabilities of moving between flowers. While a positive reinforcement of movements leading to rewarding flowers is sufficient for the emergence of resource partitioning when flowers are evenly distributed, the addition of a negative reinforcement of movements leading to unrewarding flowers is necessary when flowers are patchily distributed. In environments with more complex spatial structures, the negative experiences of individual bees on flowers favour spatial segregation and efficient collective foraging. Our study fills a major gap in modelling pollinator behaviour and constitutes a unique tool to guide future experimental programs.

Immunomodulatory drugs could contribute to a functional cure for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Interleukin-15 (IL-15) promotes expansion and activation of CD8+ T cell and natural killer (NK) cell populations. In one study, an IL-15 superagonist, N-803, suppressed Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) in non-human primates (NHPs) who had received prior SIV vaccination. However, viral suppression attenuated with continued N-803 treatment, partially returning after long treatment interruption. While there is evidence of concurrent drug tolerance, immune regulation, and viral escape, the relative contributions of these mechanisms to the observed viral dynamics have not been quantified. Here, we utilize mathematical models of N-803 treatment in SIV-infected macaques to estimate contributions of these three key mechanisms to treatment outcomes: 1) drug tolerance, 2) immune regulation, and 3) viral escape. We calibrated our model to viral and lymphocyte responses from the above-mentioned NHP study. Our models track CD8+ T cell and NK cell populations with N-803-dependent proliferation and activation, as well as viral dynamics in response to these immune cell populations. We compared mathematical models with different combinations of the three key mechanisms based on Akaike Information Criterion and important qualitative features of the NHP data. Two minimal models were capable of reproducing the observed SIV response to N-803. In both models, immune regulation strongly reduced cytotoxic cell activation to enable viral rebound. Either long-term drug tolerance or viral escape (or some combination thereof) could account for changes to viral dynamics across long breaks in N-803 treatment. Theoretical explorations with the models showed that less-frequent N-803 dosing and concurrent immune regulation blockade (e.g. PD-L1 inhibition) may improve N-803 efficacy. However, N-803 may need to be combined with other immune therapies to countermand viral escape from the CD8+ T cell response. Our mechanistic model will inform such therapy design and guide future studies.

One of the oldest and most persistent questions in ecology and evolution is whether natural communities tend to evolve toward saturation and maximal diversity. Robert MacArthur's classical theory of niche packing and the theory of adaptive radiations both imply that populations will diversify and fully partition any available niche space. However, the saturation of natural populations is still very much an open area of debate and investigation. Additionally, recent evolutionary theory suggests the existence of alternative evolutionary stable states (ESSs), which implies that some stable communities may not be fully saturated. Using models with classical Lotka-Volterra ecological dynamics and three formulations of evolutionary dynamics (a model using adaptive dynamics, an individual-based model, and a partial differential equation model), we show that following an adaptive radiation, communities can often get stuck in low diversity states when limited by mutations of small phenotypic effect. These low diversity metastable states can also be maintained by limited resources and finite population sizes. When small mutations and finite populations are considered together, it is clear that despite the presence of higher-diversity stable states, natural populations are likely not fully saturating their environment and leaving potential niche space unfilled. Additionally, within-species variation can further reduce community diversity from levels predicted by models that assume species-level homogeneity.

In many animal phyla, eyes are small and provide only low-resolution vision for general orientation in the environment. Because these primitive eyes rarely have a defined image plane, traditional visual-optics principles cannot be applied. To assess the functional capacity of such eyes we have developed modelling principles based on ray tracing in 3D reconstructions of eye morphology, where refraction on the way to the photoreceptors and absorption in the photopigment are calculated incrementally for ray bundles from all angles within the visual field. From the ray tracing, we calculate the complete angular acceptance function of each photoreceptor in the eye, revealing the visual acuity for all parts of the visual field. We then use this information to generate visual filters that can be applied to high resolution images or videos to convert them to accurate representations of the spatial information seen by the animal. The method is here applied to the 0.1 mm eyes of the velvet worm Euperipatoides rowelli (Onychophora). These eyes of these terrestrial invertebrates consist of a curved cornea covering an irregular but optically homogeneous lens directly joining a retina packed with photoreceptive rhabdoms. 3D reconstruction from histological sections revealed an asymmetric eye, where the retina is deeper in the forward-pointing direction. The calculated visual acuity also reveals performance differences across the visual field, with a maximum acuity of about 0.11 cycles/deg in the forward direction despite laterally pointing eyes. The results agree with previous behavioural measurements of visual acuity, and suggest that velvet worm vision is adequate for orientation and positioning within the habitat.

Inside individual cells, protein population counts are subject to molecular noise due to low copy numbers and the inherent probabilistic nature of biochemical processes. We investigate the effectiveness of proportional, integral and derivative (PID) based feedback controllers to suppress protein count fluctuations originating from two noise sources: bursty expression of the protein, and external disturbance in protein synthesis. Designs of biochemical reactions that function as PID controllers are discussed, with particular focus on individual controllers separately, and the corresponding closed-loop system is analyzed for stochastic controller realizations. Our results show that proportional controllers are effective in buffering protein copy number fluctuations from both noise sources, but this noise suppression comes at the cost of reduced static sensitivity of the output to the input signal. In contrast, integral feedback has no effect on the protein noise level from stochastic expression, but significantly minimizes the impact of external disturbances, particularly when the disturbance comes at low frequencies. Counter-intuitively, integral feedback is found to amplify external disturbances at intermediate frequencies. Next, we discuss the design of a coupled feedforward-feedback biochemical circuit that approximately functions as a derivate controller. Analysis using both analytical methods and Monte Carlo simulations reveals that this derivative controller effectively buffers output fluctuations from bursty stochastic expression, while maintaining the static input-output sensitivity of the open-loop system. In summary, this study provides a systematic stochastic analysis of biochemical controllers, and paves the way for their synthetic design and implementation to minimize deleterious fluctuations in gene product levels.

The EuroTransplant Kidney Allocation System (ETKAS) aims at allocating organs to patients on the waiting list fairly whilst optimizing HLA match grades. ETKAS currently considers the number of HLA-A, -B, -DR mismatches. Evidently, epitope matching is biologically and clinically more relevant. We here executed ETKAS-based computer simulations to evaluate the impact of epitope matching on allocation and compared the strategies. A virtual population of 400,000 individuals was generated using the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) haplotype frequency dataset of 2011. Using this population, a waiting list of 10,400 patients was constructed and maintained during simulation, matching the 2015 Eurotransplant Annual Report characteristics. Unacceptable antigens were assigned randomly relative to their frequency using HLAMatchmaker. Over 22,600 kidneys were allocated in 10 years in triplicate using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations on 32-CPU-core cloud-computing instances. T-cell epitopes were calculated using the www.pirche.com portal. Waiting list effects were evaluated against ETKAS for five epitope matching scenarios. Baseline simulations of ETKAS slightly overestimated reported average HLA match grades. The best balanced scenario maintained prioritisation of HLA A-B-DR fully matched donors while replacing the HLA match grade by PIRCHE-II score and exchanging the HLA mismatch probability (MMP) by epitope MMP. This setup showed no considerable impact on kidney exchange rates and waiting time. PIRCHE-II scores improved, whereas the average HLA match grade diminishes slightly, yet leading to an improved estimated graft survival. We conclude that epitope-based matching in deceased donor kidney allocation is feasible while maintaining equal balances on the waiting list.

Consciousness transiently fades away during deep sleep, more stably under anesthesia, and sometimes permanently due to brain injury. The development of an index to quantify the level of consciousness across these different states is regarded as a key problem both in basic and clinical neuroscience. We argue that this problem is ill-defined since such an index would not exhaust all the relevant information about a given state of consciousness. While the level of consciousness can be taken to describe the actual brain state, a complete characterization should also include its potential behavior against external perturbations. We developed and analyzed whole-brain computational models to show that the stability of conscious states provides information complementary to their similarity to conscious wakefulness. Our work leads to a novel methodological framework to sort out different brain states by their stability and reversibility, and illustrates its usefulness to dissociate between physiological (sleep), pathological (brain-injured patients), and pharmacologically-induced (anesthesia) loss of consciousness.

Loss of function mutations of SCN1A, the gene coding for the voltage-gated sodium channel NaV1.1, cause different types of epilepsy, whereas gain of function mutations cause sporadic and familial hemiplegic migraine type 3 (FHM-3). However, it is not clear yet how these opposite effects can induce paroxysmal pathological activities involving neuronal networks' hyperexcitability that are specific of epilepsy (seizures) or migraine (cortical spreading depolarization, CSD). To better understand differential mechanisms leading to the initiation of these pathological activities, we used a two-neuron conductance-based model of interconnected GABAergic and pyramidal glutamatergic neurons, in which we incorporated ionic concentration dynamics in both neurons. We modeled FHM-3 mutations by increasing the persistent sodium current in the interneuron and epileptogenic mutations by decreasing the sodium conductance in the interneuron. Therefore, we studied both FHM-3 and epileptogenic mutations within the same framework, modifying only two parameters. In our model, the key effect of gain of function FHM-3 mutations is ion fluxes modification at each action potential (in particular the larger activation of voltage-gated potassium channels induced by the NaV1.1 gain of function), and the resulting CSD-triggering extracellular potassium accumulation, which is not caused only by modifications of firing frequency. Loss of function epileptogenic mutations, on the other hand, increase GABAergic neurons' susceptibility to depolarization block, without major modifications of firing frequency before it. Our modeling results connect qualitatively to experimental data: potassium accumulation in the case of FHM-3 mutations and facilitated depolarization block of the GABAergic neuron in the case of epileptogenic mutations. Both these effects can lead to pyramidal neuron hyperexcitability, inducing in the migraine condition depolarization block of both the GABAergic and the pyramidal neuron. Overall, our findings suggest different mechanisms of network hyperexcitability for migraine and epileptogenic NaV1.1 mutations, implying that the modifications of firing frequency may not be the only relevant pathological mechanism.

Defects in axonal transport may partly underpin the differences between the observed pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and that of other non-amyloidogenic tauopathies. Particularly, pathological tau variants may have molecular properties that dysregulate motor proteins responsible for the anterograde-directed transport of tau in a disease-specific fashion. Here we develop the first computational model of tau-modified axonal transport that produces directional biases in the spread of tau pathology. We simulated the spatiotemporal profiles of soluble and insoluble tau species in a multicompartment, two-neuron system using biologically plausible parameters and time scales. Changes in the balance of tau transport feedback parameters can elicit anterograde and retrograde biases in the distributions of soluble and insoluble tau between compartments in the system. Aggregation and fragmentation parameters can also perturb this balance, suggesting a complex interplay between these distinct molecular processes. Critically, we show that the model faithfully recreates the characteristic network spread biases in both AD-like and non-AD-like mouse tauopathy models. Tau transport feedback may therefore help link microscopic differences in tau conformational states and the resulting variety in clinical presentations.

The organization of nucleosomes along the Eukaryotic genome is maintained over time despite disruptive events such as replication. During this complex process, histones and DNA can form a variety of non-canonical nucleosome conformations, but their precise molecular details and roles during nucleosome assembly remain unclear. In this study, employing coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations and Markov state modeling, we characterized the complete kinetics of nucleosome assembly. On the nucleosome-positioning 601 DNA sequence, we observe a rich transition network among various canonical and non-canonical tetrasome, hexasome, and nucleosome conformations. A low salt environment makes nucleosomes stable, but the kinetic landscape becomes more rugged, so that the system is more likely to be trapped in off-pathway partially assembled intermediates. Finally, we find that the co-operativity between DNA bending and histone association enables positioning sequence motifs to direct the assembly process, with potential implications for the dynamic organization of nucleosomes on real genomic sequences.

Metacognition is the ability to reflect on, and evaluate, our cognition and behaviour. Distortions in metacognition are common in mental health disorders, though the neural underpinnings of such dysfunction are unknown. One reason for this is that models of key components of metacognition, such as decision confidence, are generally specified at an algorithmic or process level. While such models can be used to relate brain function to psychopathology, they are difficult to map to a neurobiological mechanism. Here, we develop a biologically-plausible model of decision uncertainty in an attempt to bridge this gap. We first relate the model's uncertainty in perceptual decisions to standard metrics of metacognition, namely mean confidence level (bias) and the accuracy of metacognitive judgments (sensitivity). We show that dissociable shifts in metacognition are associated with isolated disturbances at higher-order levels of a circuit associated with self-monitoring, akin to neuropsychological findings that highlight the detrimental effect of prefrontal brain lesions on metacognitive performance. Notably, we are able to account for empirical confidence judgements by fitting the parameters of our biophysical model to first-order performance data, specifically choice and response times. Lastly, in a reanalysis of existing data we show that self-reported mental health symptoms relate to disturbances in an uncertainty-monitoring component of the network. By bridging a gap between a biologically-plausible model of confidence formation and observed disturbances of metacognition in mental health disorders we provide a first step towards mapping theoretical constructs of metacognition onto dynamical models of decision uncertainty. In doing so, we provide a computational framework for modelling metacognitive performance in settings where access to explicit confidence reports is not possible.

Radiologic images provide a way to monitor tumor development and its response to therapies in a longitudinal and minimally invasive fashion. However, they operate on a macroscopic scale (average value per voxel) and are not able to capture microscopic scale (cell-level) phenomena. Nevertheless, to examine the causes of frequent fast fluctuations in tissue oxygenation, models simulating individual cells' behavior are needed. Here, we provide a link between the average data values recorded for radiologic images and the cellular and vascular architecture of the corresponding tissues. Using hybrid agent-based modeling, we generate a set of tissue morphologies capable of reproducing oxygenation levels observed in radiologic images. We then use these in silico tissues to investigate whether oxygen fluctuations can be explained by changes in vascular oxygen supply or by modulations in cellular oxygen absorption. Our studies show that intravascular changes in oxygen supply reproduce the observed fluctuations in tissue oxygenation in all considered regions of interest. However, larger-magnitude fluctuations cannot be recreated by modifications in cellular absorption of oxygen in a biologically feasible manner. Additionally, we develop a procedure to identify plausible tissue morphologies for a given temporal series of average data from radiology images. In future applications, this approach can be used to generate a set of tissues comparable with radiology images and to simulate tumor responses to various anti-cancer treatments at the tissue-scale level.

Recent advances in T cell repertoire (TCR) sequencing allow for the characterization of repertoire properties, as well as the frequency and sharing of specific TCR. However, there is no efficient measure for the local density of a given TCR. TCRs are often described either through their Complementary Determining region 3 (CDR3) sequences, or theirV/J usage, or their clone size. We here show that the local repertoire density can be estimated using a combined representation of these components through distance conserving autoencoders and Kernel Density Estimates (KDE). We present ELATE-an Encoder-based LocAl Tcr dEnsity and show that the resulting density of a sample can be used as a novel measure to study repertoire properties. The cross-density between two samples can be used as a similarity matrix to fully characterize samples from the same host. Finally, the same projection in combination with machine learning algorithms can be used to predict TCR-peptide binding through the local density of known TCRs binding a specific target.

Antibodies bind foreign antigens with high affinity and specificity leading to their neutralization and/or clearance by the immune system. The conserved N-glycan on IgG has significant impact on antibody effector function, with the endoglycosidases of Streptococcus pyogenes deglycosylating the IgG to evade the immune system, a process catalyzed by the endoglycosidase EndoS2. Studies have shown that two of the four domains of EndoS2, the carbohydrate binding module (CBM) and the glycoside hydrolase (GH) domain are critical for catalytic activity. To yield structural insights into contributions of the CBM and the GH domains as well as the overall flexibility of EndoS2 to the proteins' catalytic activity, models of EndoS2-Fc complexes were generated through enhanced-sampling molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations and site-identification by ligand competitive saturation (SILCS) docking followed by reconstruction and multi-microsecond MD simulations. Modeling results predict that EndoS2 initially interacts with the IgG through its CBM followed by interactions with the GH yielding catalytically competent states. These may involve the CBM and GH of EndoS2 simultaneously interacting with either the same Fc CH2/CH3 domain or individually with the two Fc CH2/CH3 domains, with EndoS2 predicted to assume closed conformations in the former case and open conformations in the latter. Apo EndoS2 is predicted to sample both the open and closed states, suggesting that either complex can directly form following initial IgG-EndoS2 encounter. Interactions of the CBM and GH domains with the IgG are predicted to occur through both its glycan and protein regions. Simulations also predict that the Fc glycan can directly transfer from the CBM to the GH, facilitating formation of catalytically competent complexes and how the 734 to 751 loop on the CBM can facilitate extraction of the glycan away from the Fc CH2/CH3 domain. The predicted models are compared and consistent with Hydrogen/Deuterium Exchange data. In addition, the complex models are consistent with the high specificity of EndoS2 for the glycans on IgG supporting the validity of the predicted models.

In Arabidopsis thaliana, the Light-Oxygen-Voltage (LOV) domain containing protein ZEITLUPE (ZTL) integrates light quality, intensity, and duration into regulation of the circadian clock. Recent structural and biochemical studies of ZTL indicate that the protein diverges from other members of the LOV superfamily in its allosteric mechanism, and that the divergent allosteric mechanism hinges upon conservation of two signaling residues G46 and V48 that alter dynamic motions of a Gln residue implicated in signal transduction in all LOV proteins. Here, we delineate the allosteric mechanism of ZTL via an integrated computational approach that employs atomistic simulations of wild type and allosteric variants of ZTL in the functional dark and light states, together with Markov state and supervised machine learning classification models. This approach has unveiled key factors of the ZTL allosteric mechanisms, and identified specific interactions and residues implicated in functional allosteric changes. The final results reveal atomic level insights into allosteric mechanisms of ZTL function that operate via a non-trivial combination of population-shift and dynamics-driven allosteric pathways.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.

The effective reproduction number Reff is a critical epidemiological parameter that characterizes the transmissibility of a pathogen. However, this parameter is difficult to estimate in the presence of silent transmission and/or significant temporal variation in case reporting. This variation can occur due to the lack of timely or appropriate testing, public health interventions and/or changes in human behavior during an epidemic. This is exactly the situation we are confronted with during this COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, we propose to estimate Reff for the SARS-CoV-2 (the etiological agent of the COVID-19), based on a model of its propagation considering a time-varying transmission rate. This rate is modeled by a Brownian diffusion process embedded in a stochastic model. The model is then fitted by Bayesian inference (particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method) using multiple well-documented hospital datasets from several regions in France and in Ireland. This mechanistic modeling framework enables us to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the transmission rate of the COVID-19 based only on the available data. Except for the specific model structure, it is non-specifically assumed that the transmission rate follows a basic stochastic process constrained by the observations. This approach allows us to follow both the course of the COVID-19 epidemic and the temporal evolution of its Reff(t). Besides, it allows to assess and to interpret the evolution of transmission with respect to the mitigation strategies implemented to control the epidemic waves in France and in Ireland. We can thus estimate a reduction of more than 80% for the first wave in all the studied regions but a smaller reduction for the second wave when the epidemic was less active, around 45% in France but just 20% in Ireland. For the third wave in Ireland the reduction was again significant (>70%).

Author information: (1)Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. (2)Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and its reverse process, mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET), are believed to play key roles in facilitating the metastatic cascade. Metastatic lesions often exhibit a similar epithelial-like state to that of the primary tumour, in particular, by forming carcinoma cell clusters via E-cadherin-mediated junctional complexes. However, the factors enabling mesenchymal-like micrometastatic cells to resume growth and reacquire an epithelial phenotype in the target organ microenvironment remain elusive. In this study, we developed a workflow using image-based cell profiling and machine learning to examine morphological, contextual and molecular states of individual breast carcinoma cells (MDA-MB-231). MDA-MB-231 heterogeneous response to the host organ microenvironment was modelled by substrates with controllable stiffness varying from 0.2kPa (soft tissues) to 64kPa (bone tissues). We identified 3 distinct morphological cell types (morphs) varying from compact round-shaped to flattened irregular-shaped cells with lamellipodia, predominantly populating 2-kPa and >16kPa substrates, respectively. These observations were accompanied by significant changes in E-cadherin and vimentin expression. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the bone-mimicking substrate (64kPa) induced multicellular cluster formation accompanied by E-cadherin cell surface localisation. MDA-MB-231 cells responded to different substrate stiffness by morphological adaptation, changes in proliferation rate and cytoskeleton markers, and cluster formation on bone-mimicking substrate. Our results suggest that the stiffest microenvironment can induce MET.

Cellular RNA levels typically fluctuate and are influenced by different transcription rates and RNA degradation rates. However, the understanding of the fundamental relationships between RNA abundance, environmental stimuli, RNA activities, and RNA age distributions is incomplete. Furthermore, the rates of RNA degradation and transcription are difficult to measure in transcriptomic experiments in living organisms, especially in studies involving humans. A model based on activity demands and RNA age was developed to explore the mechanisms of RNA level fluctuations. Using single-cell time-series gene expression experimental data, we assessed the transcription rates, RNA degradation rates, RNA life spans, RNA demand, accumulated transcription levels, and accumulated RNA degradation levels. This model could also predict RNA levels under simulation backgrounds, such as stimuli that induce regular oscillations in RNA abundance, stable RNA levels over time that result from long-term shortage of total RNA activity or from uncontrollable transcription, and relationships between RNA/protein levels and metabolic rates. This information contributes to existing knowledge.

Metabolic adaptations to complex perturbations, like the response to pharmacological treatments in multifactorial diseases such as cancer, can be described through measurements of part of the fluxes and concentrations at the systemic level and individual transporter and enzyme activities at the molecular level. In the framework of Metabolic Control Analysis (MCA), ensembles of linear constraints can be built integrating these measurements at both systemic and molecular levels, which are expressed as relative differences or changes produced in the metabolic adaptation. Here, combining MCA with Linear Programming, an efficient computational strategy is developed to infer additional non-measured changes at the molecular level that are required to satisfy these constraints. An application of this strategy is illustrated by using a set of fluxes, concentrations, and differentially expressed genes that characterize the response to cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 inhibition in colon cancer cells. Decreases and increases in transporter and enzyme individual activities required to reprogram the measured changes in fluxes and concentrations are compared with down-regulated and up-regulated metabolic genes to unveil those that are key molecular drivers of the metabolic response.

Comment in The influence of the crowding assumptions in biofilm simulations.

Transcription factors (TFs) often function as a module including both master factors and mediators binding at cis-regulatory regions to modulate nearby gene transcription. ChIP-seq profiling of multiple TFs makes it feasible to infer functional TF modules. However, when inferring TF modules based on co-localization of ChIP-seq peaks, often many weak binding events are missed, especially for mediators, resulting in incomplete identification of modules. To address this problem, we develop a ChIP-seq data-driven Gibbs Sampler to infer Modules (ChIP-GSM) using a Bayesian framework that integrates ChIP-seq profiles of multiple TFs. ChIP-GSM samples read counts of module TFs iteratively to estimate the binding potential of a module to each region and, across all regions, estimates the module abundance. Using inferred module-region probabilistic bindings as feature units, ChIP-GSM then employs logistic regression to predict active regulatory elements. Validation of ChIP-GSM predicted regulatory regions on multiple independent datasets sharing the same context confirms the advantage of using TF modules for predicting regulatory activity. In a case study of K562 cells, we demonstrate that the ChIP-GSM inferred modules form as groups, activate gene expression at different time points, and mediate diverse functional cellular processes. Hence, ChIP-GSM infers biologically meaningful TF modules and improves the prediction accuracy of regulatory region activities.

COVID-19 testing across India uses a mix of two types of tests. Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) are relatively inexpensive point-of-care lateral-flow-assay tests, but they are also less sensitive. The reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) test has close to 100% sensitivity and specificity in a laboratory setting, but delays in returning results, as well as increased costs relative to RATs, may vitiate this advantage. India-wide, about 49% of COVID-19 tests are RATs, but some Indian states, including the large states of Uttar Pradesh (pop. 227.9 million) and Bihar (pop. 121.3 million) use a much higher proportion of such tests. Here we show, using simulations based on epidemiological network models, that the judicious use of RATs can yield epidemiological outcomes comparable to those obtained through RT-PCR-based testing and isolation of positives, provided a few conditions are met. These are (a) that RAT test sensitivity is not too low, (b) that a reasonably large fraction of the population, of order 0.5% per day, can be tested, (c) that those testing positive are isolated for a sufficient duration, and that (d) testing is accompanied by other non-pharmaceutical interventions for increased effectiveness. We assess optimal testing regimes, taking into account test sensitivity and specificity, background seroprevalence and current test pricing. We find, surprisingly, that even 100% RAT test regimes should be acceptable, from both an epidemiological as well as a economic standpoint, provided the conditions outlined above are met.

Comment in Spatio-temporal modeling of the crowding conditions and metabolic variability in microbial communities.

Biomarkers predict World Trade Center-Lung Injury (WTC-LI); however, there remains unaddressed multicollinearity in our serum cytokines, chemokines, and high-throughput platform datasets used to phenotype WTC-disease. To address this concern, we used automated, machine-learning, high-dimensional data pruning, and validated identified biomarkers. The parent cohort consisted of male, never-smoking firefighters with WTC-LI (FEV1, %Pred< lower limit of normal (LLN); n = 100) and controls (n = 127) and had their biomarkers assessed. Cases and controls (n = 15/group) underwent untargeted metabolomics, then feature selection performed on metabolites, cytokines, chemokines, and clinical data. Cytokines, chemokines, and clinical biomarkers were validated in the non-overlapping parent-cohort via binary logistic regression with 5-fold cross validation. Random forests of metabolites (n = 580), clinical biomarkers (n = 5), and previously assayed cytokines, chemokines (n = 106) identified that the top 5% of biomarkers important to class separation included pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF), macrophage derived chemokine (MDC), systolic blood pressure, macrophage inflammatory protein-4 (MIP-4), growth-regulated oncogene protein (GRO), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), apolipoprotein-AII (Apo-AII), cell membrane metabolites (sphingolipids, phospholipids), and branched-chain amino acids. Validated models via confounder-adjusted (age on 9/11, BMI, exposure, and pre-9/11 FEV1, %Pred) binary logistic regression had AUCROC [0.90(0.84-0.96)]. Decreased PEDF and MIP-4, and increased Apo-AII were associated with increased odds of WTC-LI. Increased GRO, MCP-1, and simultaneously decreased MDC were associated with decreased odds of WTC-LI. In conclusion, automated data pruning identified novel WTC-LI biomarkers; performance was validated in an independent cohort. One biomarker-PEDF, an antiangiogenic agent-is a novel, predictive biomarker of particulate-matter-related lung disease. Other biomarkers-GRO, MCP-1, MDC, MIP-4-reveal immune cell involvement in WTC-LI pathogenesis. Findings of our automated biomarker identification warrant further investigation into these potential pharmacotherapy targets.

During the last ten years, many research results have been referring to a particular type of cancer-associated fibroblasts associated with poor prognosis, invasiveness, metastasis and resistance to therapy in multiple cancer types, characterized by a gene expression signature with prominent presence of genes COL11A1, THBS2 and INHBA. Identifying the underlying biological mechanisms responsible for their creation may facilitate the discovery of targets for potential pan-cancer therapeutics. Using a novel computational approach for single-cell gene expression data analysis identifying the dominant cell populations in a sequence of samples from patients at various stages, we conclude that these fibroblasts are produced by a pan-cancer cellular transition originating from a particular type of adipose-derived stromal cells naturally present in the stromal vascular fraction of normal adipose tissue, having a characteristic gene expression signature. Focusing on a rich pancreatic cancer dataset, we provide a detailed description of the continuous modification of the gene expression profiles of cells as they transition from APOD-expressing adipose-derived stromal cells to COL11A1-expressing cancer-associated fibroblasts, identifying the key genes that participate in this transition. These results also provide an explanation to the well-known fact that the adipose microenvironment contributes to cancer progression.

We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied.

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) can visualize functional biomolecules near the physiological condition, but the observed data are limited to the surface height of specimens. Since the AFM images highly depend on the probe tip shape, for successful inference of molecular structures from the measurement, the knowledge of the probe shape is required, but is often missing. Here, we developed a method of the rigid-body fitting to AFM images, which simultaneously finds the shape of the probe tip and the placement of the molecular structure via an exhaustive search. First, we examined four similarity scores via twin-experiments for four test proteins, finding that the cosine similarity score generally worked best, whereas the pixel-RMSD and the correlation coefficient were also useful. We then applied the method to two experimental high-speed-AFM images inferring the probe shape and the molecular placement. The results suggest that the appropriate similarity score can differ between target systems. For an actin filament image, the cosine similarity apparently worked best. For an image of the flagellar protein FlhAC, we found the correlation coefficient gave better results. This difference may partly be attributed to the flexibility in the target molecule, ignored in the rigid-body fitting. The inferred tip shape and placement results can be further refined by other methods, such as the flexible fitting molecular dynamics simulations. The developed software is publicly available.

The large amount of biological data available in the current times, makes it necessary to use tools and applications based on sophisticated and efficient algorithms, developed in the area of bioinformatics. Further, access to high performance computing resources is necessary, to achieve results in reasonable time. To speed up applications and utilize available compute resources as efficient as possible, software developers make use of parallelization mechanisms, like multithreading. Many of the available tools in bioinformatics offer multithreading capabilities, but more compute power is not always helpful. In this study we investigated the behavior of well-known applications in bioinformatics, regarding their performance in the terms of scaling, different virtual environments and different datasets with our benchmarking tool suite BOOTABLE. The tool suite includes the tools BBMap, Bowtie2, BWA, Velvet, IDBA, SPAdes, Clustal Omega, MAFFT, SINA and GROMACS. In addition we added an application using the machine learning framework TensorFlow. Machine learning is not directly part of bioinformatics but applied to many biological problems, especially in the context of medical images (X-ray photographs). The mentioned tools have been analyzed in two different virtual environments, a virtual machine environment based on the OpenStack cloud software and in a Docker environment. The gained performance values were compared to a bare-metal setup and among each other. The study reveals, that the used virtual environments produce an overhead in the range of seven to twenty-five percent compared to the bare-metal environment. The scaling measurements showed, that some of the analyzed tools do not benefit from using larger amounts of computing resources, whereas others showed an almost linear scaling behavior. The findings of this study have been generalized as far as possible and should help users to find the best amount of resources for their analysis. Further, the results provide valuable information for resource providers to handle their resources as efficiently as possible and raise the user community's awareness of the efficient usage of computing resources.

Broad scale remote sensing promises to build forest inventories at unprecedented scales. A crucial step in this process is to associate sensor data into individual crowns. While dozens of crown detection algorithms have been proposed, their performance is typically not compared based on standard data or evaluation metrics. There is a need for a benchmark dataset to minimize differences in reported results as well as support evaluation of algorithms across a broad range of forest types. Combining RGB, LiDAR and hyperspectral sensor data from the USA National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform with multiple types of evaluation data, we created a benchmark dataset to assess crown detection and delineation methods for canopy trees covering dominant forest types in the United States. This benchmark dataset includes an R package to standardize evaluation metrics and simplify comparisons between methods. The benchmark dataset contains over 6,000 image-annotated crowns, 400 field-annotated crowns, and 3,000 canopy stem points from a wide range of forest types. In addition, we include over 10,000 training crowns for optional use. We discuss the different evaluation data sources and assess the accuracy of the image-annotated crowns by comparing annotations among multiple annotators as well as overlapping field-annotated crowns. We provide an example submission and score for an open-source algorithm that can serve as a baseline for future methods.

While advancements in genome sequencing have identified millions of somatic mutations in cancer, their functional impact is poorly understood. We previously developed the expression-based variant impact phenotyping (eVIP) method to use gene expression data to characterize the function of gene variants. The eVIP method uses a decision tree-based algorithm to predict the functional impact of somatic variants by comparing gene expression signatures induced by introduction of wild-type (WT) versus mutant cDNAs in cell lines. The method distinguishes between variants that are gain-of-function, loss-of-function, change-of-function, or neutral. We present eVIP2, software that allows for pathway analysis (eVIP Pathways) and usage with RNA-seq data. To demonstrate the eVIP2 software and approach, we characterized two recurrent frameshift variants in RNF43, a negative regulator of Wnt signaling, frequently mutated in colorectal, gastric, and endometrial cancer. RNF43 WT, RNF43 R117fs, RNF43 G659fs, or GFP control cDNA were overexpressed in HEK293T cells. Analysis with eVIP2 predicted that the frameshift at position 117 was a loss-of-function mutation, as expected. The second frameshift at position 659 has been previously described as a passenger mutation that maintains the RNF43 WT function as a negative regulator of Wnt. Surprisingly, eVIP2 predicted G659fs to be a change-of-function mutation. Additional eVIP Pathways analysis of RNF43 G659fs predicted 10 pathways to be significantly altered, including TNF-α via NFκB signaling, KRAS signaling, and hypoxia, highlighting the benefit of a more comprehensive approach when determining the impact of gene variant function. To validate these predictions, we performed reporter assays and found that each pathway activated by expression of RNF43 G659fs, but not expression of RNF43 WT, was identified as impacted by eVIP2, supporting that RNF43 G659fs is a change-of-function mutation and its effect on the identified pathways. Pathway activation was further validated by Western blot analysis. Lastly, we show primary colon adenocarcinoma patient samples with R117fs and G659fs variants have transcriptional profiles similar to BRAF missense mutations with activated RAS/MAPK signaling, consistent with KRAS signaling pathways being GOF in both variants. The eVIP2 method is an important step towards overcoming the current challenge of variant interpretation in the implementation of precision medicine. eVIP2 is available at https://github.com/BrooksLabUCSC/eVIP2.

Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014-2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer's rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer's rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5-2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.

There are currently 85,000 chemicals registered with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Toxic Substances Control Act, but only a small fraction have measured toxicological data. To address this gap, high-throughput screening (HTS) and computational methods are vital. As part of one such HTS effort, embryonic zebrafish were used to examine a suite of morphological and mortality endpoints at six concentrations from over 1,000 unique chemicals found in the ToxCast library (phase 1 and 2). We hypothesized that by using a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) or deep neural networks (DNN), and leveraging this large set of toxicity data we could efficiently predict toxic outcomes of untested chemicals. Utilizing a novel method in this space, we converted the 3D structural information into a weighted set of points while retaining all information about the structure. In vivo toxicity and chemical data were used to train two neural network generators. The first was a DNN (Go-ZT) while the second utilized cGAN architecture (GAN-ZT) to train generators to produce toxicity data. Our results showed that Go-ZT significantly outperformed the cGAN, support vector machine, random forest and multilayer perceptron models in cross-validation, and when tested against an external test dataset. By combining both Go-ZT and GAN-ZT, our consensus model improved the SE, SP, PPV, and Kappa, to 71.4%, 95.9%, 71.4% and 0.673, respectively, resulting in an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.837. Considering their potential use as prescreening tools, these models could provide in vivo toxicity predictions and insight into the hundreds of thousands of untested chemicals to prioritize compounds for HT testing.

In bacterial cells, protein expression is a highly stochastic process. Gene expression noise moreover propagates through the cell and adds to fluctuations in the cellular growth rate. A common intuition is that, due to their relatively high noise amplitudes, proteins with a low mean expression level are the most important drivers of fluctuations in physiological variables. In this work, we challenge this intuition by considering the effect of natural selection on noise propagation. Mathematically, the contribution of each protein species to the noise in the growth rate depends on two factors: the noise amplitude of the protein's expression level, and the sensitivity of the growth rate to fluctuations in that protein's concentration. We argue that natural selection, while shaping mean abundances to increase the mean growth rate, also affects cellular sensitivities. In the limit in which cells grow optimally fast, the growth rate becomes most sensitive to fluctuations in highly abundant proteins. This causes abundant proteins to overall contribute strongly to the noise in the growth rate, despite their low noise levels. We further explore this result in an experimental data set of protein abundances, and test key assumptions in an evolving, stochastic toy model of cellular growth.

Oligomers of the amyloid β-protein (Aβ) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) through their toxicity towards neurons. Understanding the process of oligomerization may contribute to the development of therapeutic agents, but this has been difficult due to the complexity of oligomerization and the metastability of the oligomers thus formed. To understand the kinetics of oligomer formation, and how that relates to the progression of AD, we developed models of the oligomerization process. Here, we use experimental data from cell viability assays and proxies for rate constants involved in monomer-dimer-trimer kinetics to develop a simple mathematical model linking Aβ assembly to oligomer-induced neuronal degeneration. This model recapitulates the rapid growth of disease incidence with age. It does so through incorporation of age-dependent changes in rates of Aβ monomer production and elimination. The model also describes clinical progression in genetic forms of AD (e.g., Down's syndrome), changes in hippocampal volume, AD risk after traumatic brain injury, and spatial spreading of the disease due to foci in which Aβ production is elevated. Continued incorporation of clinical and basic science data into the current model will make it an increasingly relevant model system for doing theoretical calculations that are not feasible in biological systems. In addition, terms in the model that have particularly large effects are likely to be especially useful therapeutic targets.

Complex dendritic trees are a distinctive feature of neurons. Alterations to dendritic morphology are associated with developmental, behavioral and neurodegenerative changes. The highly-arborized PVD neuron of C. elegans serves as a model to study dendritic patterning; however, quantitative, objective and automated analyses of PVD morphology are missing. Here, we present a method for neuronal feature extraction, based on deep-learning and fitting algorithms. The extracted neuronal architecture is represented by a database of structural elements for abstracted analysis. We obtain excellent automatic tracing of PVD trees and uncover that dendritic junctions are unevenly distributed. Surprisingly, these junctions are three-way-symmetrical on average, while dendritic processes are arranged orthogonally. We quantify the effect of mutation in git-1, a regulator of dendritic spine formation, on PVD morphology and discover a localized reduction in junctions. Our findings shed new light on PVD architecture, demonstrating the effectiveness of our objective analyses of dendritic morphology and suggest molecular control mechanisms.

The T cell receptor (TCR-CD3) initiates T cell activation by binding to peptides of Major Histocompatibility Complexes (pMHC). The TCR-CD3 topology is well understood but the arrangement and dynamics of its cytoplasmic tails remains unknown, limiting our grasp of the signalling mechanism. Here, we use molecular dynamics simulations and modelling to investigate the entire TCR-CD3 embedded in a model membrane. Our study demonstrates conformational changes in the extracellular and transmembrane domains, and the arrangement of the TCR-CD3 cytoplasmic tails. The cytoplasmic tails formed highly interlaced structures while some tyrosines within the immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motifs (ITAMs) penetrated the hydrophobic core of the membrane. Interactions between the cytoplasmic tails and phosphatidylinositol phosphate lipids in the inner membrane leaflet led to the formation of a distinct anionic lipid fingerprint around the TCR-CD3. These results increase our understanding of the TCR-CD3 dynamics and the importance of membrane lipids in regulating T cell activation.

Graphs such as de Bruijn graphs and OLC (overlap-layout-consensus) graphs have been widely adopted for the de novo assembly of genomic short reads. This work studies another important problem in the field: how graphs can be used for high-performance compression of the large-scale sequencing data. We present a novel graph definition named Hamming-Shifting graph to address this problem. The definition originates from the technological characteristics of next-generation sequencing machines, aiming to link all pairs of distinct reads that have a small Hamming distance or a small shifting offset or both. We compute multiple lexicographically minimal k-mers to index the reads for an efficient search of the weight-lightest edges, and we prove a very high probability of successfully detecting these edges. The resulted graph creates a full mutual reference of the reads to cascade a code-minimized transfer of every child-read for an optimal compression. We conducted compression experiments on the minimum spanning forest of this extremely sparse graph, and achieved a 10 - 30% more file size reduction compared to the best compression results using existing algorithms. As future work, the separation and connectivity degrees of these giant graphs can be used as economical measurements or protocols for quick quality assessment of wet-lab machines, for sufficiency control of genomic library preparation, and for accurate de novo genome assembly.

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty ("immune selection") suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage. In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Within the computational neuroscience community, there has been a focus on simulating the electrical activity of neurons, while other components of brain tissue, such as glia cells and the extracellular space, are often neglected. Standard models of extracellular potentials are based on a combination of multicompartmental models describing neural electrodynamics and volume conductor theory. Such models cannot be used to simulate the slow components of extracellular potentials, which depend on ion concentration dynamics, and the effect that this has on extracellular diffusion potentials and glial buffering currents. We here present the electrodiffusive neuron-extracellular-glia (edNEG) model, which we believe is the first model to combine compartmental neuron modeling with an electrodiffusive framework for intra- and extracellular ion concentration dynamics in a local piece of neuro-glial brain tissue. The edNEG model (i) keeps track of all intraneuronal, intraglial, and extracellular ion concentrations and electrical potentials, (ii) accounts for action potentials and dendritic calcium spikes in neurons, (iii) contains a neuronal and glial homeostatic machinery that gives physiologically realistic ion concentration dynamics, (iv) accounts for electrodiffusive transmembrane, intracellular, and extracellular ionic movements, and (v) accounts for glial and neuronal swelling caused by osmotic transmembrane pressure gradients. The edNEG model accounts for the concentration-dependent effects on ECS potentials that the standard models neglect. Using the edNEG model, we analyze these effects by splitting the extracellular potential into three components: one due to neural sink/source configurations, one due to glial sink/source configurations, and one due to extracellular diffusive currents. Through a series of simulations, we analyze the roles played by the various components and how they interact in generating the total slow potential. We conclude that the three components are of comparable magnitude and that the stimulus conditions determine which of the components that dominate.

Knowledge of genes that are critical to a tissue's function remains difficult to ascertain and presents a major bottleneck toward a mechanistic understanding of genotype-phenotype links. Here, we present the first machine learning model-FUGUE-combining transcriptional and network features, to predict tissue-relevant genes across 30 human tissues. FUGUE achieves an average cross-validation auROC of 0.86 and auPRC of 0.50 (expected 0.09). In independent datasets, FUGUE accurately distinguishes tissue or cell type-specific genes, significantly outperforming the conventional metric based on tissue-specific expression alone. Comparison of tissue-relevant transcription factors across tissue recapitulate their developmental relationships. Interestingly, the tissue-relevant genes cluster on the genome within topologically associated domains and furthermore, are highly enriched for differentially expressed genes in the corresponding cancer type. We provide the prioritized gene lists in 30 human tissues and an open-source software to prioritize genes in a novel context given multi-sample transcriptomic data.

Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates.

Cells polarize their movement or growth toward external directional cues in many different contexts. For example, budding yeast cells grow toward potential mating partners in response to pheromone gradients. Directed growth is controlled by polarity factors that assemble into clusters at the cell membrane. The clusters assemble, disassemble, and move between different regions of the membrane before eventually forming a stable polarity site directed toward the pheromone source. Pathways that regulate clustering have been identified but the molecular mechanisms that regulate cluster mobility are not well understood. To gain insight into the contribution of chemical noise to cluster behavior we simulated clustering using the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) framework to account for molecular-level fluctuations. RDME simulations are a computationally efficient approximation, but their results can diverge from the underlying microscopic dynamics. We implemented novel concentration-dependent rate constants that improved the accuracy of RDME-based simulations, allowing us to efficiently investigate how cluster dynamics might be regulated. Molecular noise was effective in relocating clusters when the clusters contained low numbers of limiting polarity factors, and when Cdc42, the central polarity regulator, exhibited short dwell times at the polarity site. Cluster stabilization occurred when abundances or binding rates were altered to either lengthen dwell times or increase the number of polarity molecules in the cluster. We validated key results using full 3D particle-based simulations. Understanding the mechanisms cells use to regulate the dynamics of polarity clusters should provide insights into how cells dynamically track external directional cues.

The relationship between different levels of integration is a key feature for understanding the genotype-phenotype map. Here, we describe a novel method of integrated data analysis that incorporates protein abundance data into constraint-based modeling to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying phenotypic variation. Specifically, we studied yeast genetic diversity at three levels of phenotypic complexity in a population of yeast obtained by pairwise crosses of eleven strains belonging to two species, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and S. uvarum. The data included protein abundances, integrated traits (life-history/fermentation) and computational estimates of metabolic fluxes. Results highlighted that the negative correlation between production traits such as population carrying capacity (K) and traits associated with growth and fermentation rates (Jmax) is explained by a differential usage of energy production pathways: a high K was associated with high TCA fluxes, while a high Jmax was associated with high glycolytic fluxes. Enrichment analysis of protein sets confirmed our results. This powerful approach allowed us to identify the molecular and metabolic bases of integrated trait variation, and therefore has a broad applicability domain.

What humans do when exposed to uncertainty, incomplete information, and a dynamic environment influenced by other agents remains an open scientific challenge with important implications in both science and engineering applications. In these contexts, humans handle social situations by employing elaborate cognitive mechanisms such as theory of mind and risk sensitivity. Here we resort to a novel theoretical model, showing that both mechanisms leverage coordinated behaviors among self-regarding individuals. Particularly, we resort to cumulative prospect theory and level-k recursions to show how biases towards optimism and the capacity of planning ahead significantly increase coordinated, cooperative action. These results suggest that the reason why humans are good at coordination may stem from the fact that we are cognitively biased to do so.

Evidence accumulation models provide a dominant account of human decision-making, and have been particularly successful at explaining behavioral and neural data in laboratory paradigms using abstract, stationary stimuli. It has been proposed, but with limited in-depth investigation so far, that similar decision-making mechanisms are involved in tasks of a more embodied nature, such as movement and locomotion, by directly accumulating externally measurable sensory quantities of which the precise, typically continuously time-varying, magnitudes are important for successful behavior. Here, we leverage collision threat detection as a task which is ecologically relevant in this sense, but which can also be rigorously observed and modelled in a laboratory setting. Conventionally, it is assumed that humans are limited in this task by a perceptual threshold on the optical expansion rate-the visual looming-of the obstacle. Using concurrent recordings of EEG and behavioral responses, we disprove this conventional assumption, and instead provide strong evidence that humans detect collision threats by accumulating the continuously time-varying visual looming signal. Generalizing existing accumulator model assumptions from stationary to time-varying sensory evidence, we show that our model accounts for previously unexplained empirical observations and full distributions of detection response. We replicate a pre-response centroparietal positivity (CPP) in scalp potentials, which has previously been found to correlate with accumulated decision evidence. In contrast with these existing findings, we show that our model is capable of predicting the onset of the CPP signature rather than its buildup, suggesting that neural evidence accumulation is implemented differently, possibly in distinct brain regions, in collision detection compared to previously studied paradigms.

Sperm migration in the female genital tract controls sperm selection and, therefore, reproductive success as male gametes are conditioned for fertilization while their number is dramatically reduced. Mechanisms underlying sperm migration are mostly unknown, since in vivo investigations are mostly unfeasible for ethical or practical reasons. By presenting a spatio-temporal model of the mammalian female genital tract combined with agent-based description of sperm motion and interaction as well as parameterizing it with bovine data, we offer an alternative possibility for studying sperm migration in silico. The model incorporates genital tract geometry as well as biophysical principles of sperm motion observed in vitro such as positive rheotaxis and thigmotaxis. This model for sperm migration from vagina to oviducts was successfully tested against in vivo data from literature. We found that physical sperm characteristics such as velocity and directional stability as well as sperm-fluid interactions and wall alignment are critical for success, i.e. sperms reaching the oviducts. Therefore, we propose that these identified sperm parameters should be considered in detail for conditioning sperm in artificial selection procedures since the natural processes are normally bypassed in reproductive in vitro technologies. The tremendous impact of mucus flow to support sperm accumulation in the oviduct highlights the importance of a species-specific optimum time window for artificial insemination regarding ovulation. Predictions from our extendable in silico experimental system will improve assisted reproduction in humans, endangered species, and livestock.

Individualized anatomical information has been used as prior knowledge in Bayesian inference paradigms of whole-brain network models. However, the actual sensitivity to such personalized information in priors is still unknown. In this study, we introduce the use of fully Bayesian information criteria and leave-one-out cross-validation technique on the subject-specific information to assess different epileptogenicity hypotheses regarding the location of pathological brain areas based on a priori knowledge from dynamical system properties. The Bayesian Virtual Epileptic Patient (BVEP) model, which relies on the fusion of structural data of individuals, a generative model of epileptiform discharges, and a self-tuning Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, is used to infer the spatial map of epileptogenicity across different brain areas. Our results indicate that measuring the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of the BVEP model with informative priors enables reliable and efficient evaluation of potential hypotheses regarding the degree of epileptogenicity across different brain regions. In contrast, while using uninformative priors, the information criteria are unable to provide strong evidence about the epileptogenicity of brain areas. We also show that the fully Bayesian criteria correctly assess different hypotheses about both structural and functional components of whole-brain models that differ across individuals. The fully Bayesian information-theory based approach used in this study suggests a patient-specific strategy for epileptogenicity hypothesis testing in generative brain network models of epilepsy to improve surgical outcomes.

During the last decade, a consensus has emerged that the stochastic triggering of an excitable system drives pseudopod formation and subsequent migration of amoeboid cells. The presence of chemoattractant stimuli alters the threshold for triggering this activity and can bias the direction of migration. Though noise plays an important role in these behaviors, mathematical models have typically ignored its origin and merely introduced it as an external signal into a series of reaction-diffusion equations. Here we consider a more realistic description based on a reaction-diffusion master equation formalism to implement these networks. In this scheme, noise arises naturally from a stochastic description of the various reaction and diffusion terms. Working on a three-dimensional geometry in which separate compartments are divided into a tetrahedral mesh, we implement a modular description of the system, consisting of G-protein coupled receptor signaling (GPCR), a local excitation-global inhibition mechanism (LEGI), and signal transduction excitable network (STEN). Our models implement detailed biochemical descriptions whenever this information is available, such as in the GPCR and G-protein interactions. In contrast, where the biochemical entities are less certain, such as the LEGI mechanism, we consider various possible schemes and highlight the differences between them. Our simulations show that even when the LEGI mechanism displays perfect adaptation in terms of the mean level of proteins, the variance shows a dose-dependence. This differs between the various models considered, suggesting a possible means for determining experimentally among the various potential networks. Overall, our simulations recreate temporal and spatial patterns observed experimentally in both wild-type and perturbed cells, providing further evidence for the excitable system paradigm. Moreover, because of the overall importance and ubiquity of the modules we consider, including GPCR signaling and adaptation, our results will be of interest beyond the field of directed migration.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute infection of the respiratory tract that emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It was quickly established that both the symptoms and the disease severity may vary from one case to another and several strains of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified. To gain a better understanding of the wide variety of SARS-CoV-2 strains and their associated symptoms, thousands of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been sequenced in dozens of countries. In this article, we introduce COVIDomic, a multi-omics online platform designed to facilitate the analysis and interpretation of the large amount of health data collected from patients with COVID-19. The COVIDomic platform provides a comprehensive set of bioinformatic tools for the multi-modal metatranscriptomic data analysis of COVID-19 patients to determine the origin of the coronavirus strain and the expected severity of the disease. An integrative analytical workflow, which includes microbial pathogens community analysis, COVID-19 genetic epidemiology and patient stratification, allows to analyze the presence of the most common microbial organisms, their antibiotic resistance, the severity of the infection and the set of the most probable geographical locations from which the studied strain could have originated. The online platform integrates a user friendly interface which allows easy visualization of the results. We envision this tool will not only have immediate implications for management of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, but will also improve our readiness to respond to other infectious outbreaks.

The identification of bacterial effectors is essential to understand how obligatory intracellular bacteria such as Ehrlichia spp. manipulate the host cell for survival and replication. Infection of mammals-including humans-by the intracellular pathogenic bacteria Ehrlichia spp. depends largely on the injection of virulence proteins that hijack host cell processes. Several hypothetical virulence proteins have been identified in Ehrlichia spp., but one so far has been experimentally shown to translocate into host cells via the type IV secretion system. However, the current challenge is to identify most of the type IV effectors (T4Es) to fully understand their role in Ehrlichia spp. virulence and host adaptation. Here, we predict the T4E repertoires of four sequenced Ehrlichia spp. and four other Anaplasmataceae as comparative models (pathogenic Anaplasma spp. and Wolbachia endosymbiont) using previously developed S4TE 2.0 software. This analysis identified 579 predicted T4Es (228 pT4Es for Ehrlichia spp. only). The effector repertoires of Ehrlichia spp. overlapped, thereby defining a conserved core effectome of 92 predicted effectors shared by all strains. In addition, 69 species-specific T4Es were predicted with non-canonical GC% mostly in gene sparse regions of the genomes and we observed a bias in pT4Es according to host-specificity. We also identified new protein domain combinations, suggesting novel effector functions. This work presenting the predicted effector collection of Ehrlichia spp. can serve as a guide for future functional characterisation of effectors and design of alternative control strategies against these bacteria.

During sleep, the brain undergoes dynamic and structural changes. In Drosophila, such changes have been observed in the central complex, a brain area important for sleep control and navigation. The connectivity of the central complex raises the question about how navigation, and specifically the head direction system, can operate in the face of sleep related plasticity. To address this question, we develop a model that integrates sleep homeostasis and head direction. We show that by introducing plasticity, the head direction system can function in a stable way by balancing plasticity in connected circuits that encode sleep pressure. With increasing sleep pressure, the head direction system nevertheless becomes unstable and a sleep phase with a different plasticity mechanism is introduced to reset network connectivity. The proposed integration of sleep homeostasis and head direction circuits captures features of their neural dynamics observed in flies and mice.

On March 23 2020, the UK enacted an intensive, nationwide lockdown to mitigate transmission of COVID-19. As restrictions began to ease, more localized interventions were used to target resurgences in transmission. Understanding the spatial scale of networks of human interaction, and how these networks change over time, is critical to targeting interventions at the most at-risk areas without unnecessarily restricting areas at low risk of resurgence. We use detailed human mobility data aggregated from Facebook users to determine how the spatially-explicit network of movements changed before and during the lockdown period, in response to the easing of restrictions, and to the introduction of locally-targeted interventions. We also apply community detection techniques to the weighted, directed network of movements to identify geographically-explicit movement communities and measure the evolution of these community structures through time. We found that the mobility network became more sparse and the number of mobility communities decreased under the national lockdown, a change that disproportionately affected long distance connections central to the mobility network. We also found that the community structure of areas in which locally-targeted interventions were implemented following epidemic resurgence did not show reorganization of community structure but did show small decreases in indicators of travel outside of local areas. We propose that communities detected using Facebook or other mobility data be used to assess the impact of spatially-targeted restrictions and may inform policymakers about the spatial extent of human movement patterns in the UK. These data are available in near real-time, allowing quantification of changes in the distribution of the population across the UK, as well as changes in travel patterns to inform our understanding of the impact of geographically-targeted interventions.

miRNAs belong to small non-coding RNAs that are related to a number of complicated biological processes. Considerable studies have suggested that miRNAs are closely associated with many human diseases. In this study, we proposed a computational model based on Similarity Constrained Matrix Factorization for miRNA-Disease Association Prediction (SCMFMDA). In order to effectively combine different disease and miRNA similarity data, we applied similarity network fusion algorithm to obtain integrated disease similarity (composed of disease functional similarity, disease semantic similarity and disease Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity) and integrated miRNA similarity (composed of miRNA functional similarity, miRNA sequence similarity and miRNA Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity). In addition, the L2 regularization terms and similarity constraint terms were added to traditional Nonnegative Matrix Factorization algorithm to predict disease-related miRNAs. SCMFMDA achieved AUCs of 0.9675 and 0.9447 based on global Leave-one-out cross validation and five-fold cross validation, respectively. Furthermore, the case studies on two common human diseases were also implemented to demonstrate the prediction accuracy of SCMFMDA. The out of top 50 predicted miRNAs confirmed by experimental reports that indicated SCMFMDA was effective for prediction of relationship between miRNAs and diseases.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.

The directionality of network information flow dictates how networks process information. A central component of information processing in both biological and artificial neural networks is their ability to perform synergistic integration-a type of computation. We established previously that synergistic integration varies directly with the strength of feedforward information flow. However, the relationships between both recurrent and feedback information flow and synergistic integration remain unknown. To address this, we analyzed the spiking activity of hundreds of neurons in organotypic cultures of mouse cortex. We asked how empirically observed synergistic integration-determined from partial information decomposition-varied with local functional network structure that was categorized into motifs with varying recurrent and feedback information flow. We found that synergistic integration was elevated in motifs with greater recurrent information flow beyond that expected from the local feedforward information flow. Feedback information flow was interrelated with feedforward information flow and was associated with decreased synergistic integration. Our results indicate that synergistic integration is distinctly influenced by the directionality of local information flow.

Surveillance is critical to mounting an appropriate and effective response to pandemics. However, aggregated case report data suffers from reporting delays and can lead to misleading inferences. Different from aggregated case report data, line list data is a table contains individual features such as dates of symptom onset and reporting for each reported case and a good source for modeling delays. Current methods for modeling reporting delays are not particularly appropriate for line list data, which typically has missing symptom onset dates that are non-ignorable for modeling reporting delays. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach that dynamically integrates imputation and estimation for line list data. Specifically, this Bayesian approach can accurately estimate the epidemic curve and instantaneous reproduction numbers, even with most symptom onset dates missing. The Bayesian approach is also robust to deviations from model assumptions, such as changes in the reporting delay distribution or incorrect specification of the maximum reporting delay. We apply the Bayesian approach to COVID-19 line list data in Massachusetts and find the reproduction number estimates correspond more closely to the control measures than the estimates based on the reported curve.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Metabolomics and proteomics, like other omics domains, usually face a data mining challenge in providing an understandable output to advance in biomarker discovery and precision medicine. Often, statistical analysis is one of the most difficult challenges and it is critical in the subsequent biological interpretation of the results. Because of this, combined with the computational programming skills needed for this type of analysis, several bioinformatic tools aimed at simplifying metabolomics and proteomics data analysis have emerged. However, sometimes the analysis is still limited to a few hidebound statistical methods and to data sets with limited flexibility. POMAShiny is a web-based tool that provides a structured, flexible and user-friendly workflow for the visualization, exploration and statistical analysis of metabolomics and proteomics data. This tool integrates several statistical methods, some of them widely used in other types of omics, and it is based on the POMA R/Bioconductor package, which increases the reproducibility and flexibility of analyses outside the web environment. POMAShiny and POMA are both freely available at https://github.com/nutrimetabolomics/POMAShiny and https://github.com/nutrimetabolomics/POMA, respectively.

In the real world, many relationships between events are uncertain and probabilistic. Uncertainty is also likely to be a more common feature of daily experience for youth because they have less experience to draw from than adults. Some studies suggest probabilistic learning may be inefficient in youths compared to adults, while others suggest it may be more efficient in youths in mid adolescence. Here we used a probabilistic reinforcement learning task to test how youth age 8-17 (N = 187) and adults age 18-30 (N = 110) learn about stable probabilistic contingencies. Performance increased with age through early-twenties, then stabilized. Using hierarchical Bayesian methods to fit computational reinforcement learning models, we show that all participants' performance was better explained by models in which negative outcomes had minimal to no impact on learning. The performance increase over age was driven by 1) an increase in learning rate (i.e. decrease in integration time scale); 2) a decrease in noisy/exploratory choices. In mid-adolescence age 13-15, salivary testosterone and learning rate were positively related. We discuss our findings in the context of other studies and hypotheses about adolescent brain development.