Restoring gene function by the induced skipping of deleterious exons has been shown to be effective for treating genetic disorders. However, many of the clinically successful therapies for exon skipping are transient oligonucleotide-based treatments that require frequent dosing. CRISPR-Cas9 based genome editing that causes exon skipping is a promising therapeutic modality that may offer permanent alleviation of genetic disease. We show that machine learning can select Cas9 guide RNAs that disrupt splice acceptors and cause the skipping of targeted exons. We experimentally measured the exon skipping frequencies of a diverse genome-integrated library of 791 splice sequences targeted by 1,063 guide RNAs in mouse embryonic stem cells. We found that our method, SkipGuide, is able to identify effective guide RNAs with a precision of 0.68 (50% threshold predicted exon skipping frequency) and 0.93 (70% threshold predicted exon skipping frequency). We anticipate that SkipGuide will be useful for selecting guide RNA candidates for evaluation of CRISPR-Cas9-mediated exon skipping therapy.

Motile organisms actively detect environmental signals and migrate to a preferable environment. Especially, small animals convert subtle spatial difference in sensory input into orientation behavioral output for directly steering toward a destination, but the neural mechanisms underlying steering behavior remain elusive. Here, we analyze a C. elegans thermotactic behavior in which a small number of neurons are shown to mediate steering toward a destination temperature. We construct a neuroanatomical model and use an evolutionary algorithm to find configurations of the model that reproduce empirical thermotactic behavior. We find that, in all the evolved models, steering curvature are modulated by temporally persistent thermal signals sensed beyond the time scale of sinusoidal locomotion of C. elegans. Persistent rise in temperature decreases steering curvature resulting in straight movement of model worms, whereas fall in temperature increases curvature resulting in crooked movement. This relation between temperature change and steering curvature reproduces the empirical thermotactic migration up thermal gradients and steering bias toward higher temperature. Further, spectrum decomposition of neural activities in model worms show that thermal signals are transmitted from a sensory neuron to motor neurons on the longer time scale than sinusoidal locomotion of C. elegans. Our results suggest that employments of temporally persistent sensory signals enable small animals to steer toward a destination in natural environment with variable, noisy, and subtle cues.

Nucleosome positioning is crucial for the genome's function. Though the role of DNA sequence in positioning nucleosomes is well understood, a detailed mechanistic understanding on the impact of transcription remains lacking. Using numerical simulations, we investigated the dependence of nucleosome density profiles on transcription level across multiple species. We found that the low nucleosome affinity of yeast, but not mouse, promoters contributes to the formation of phased nucleosomes arrays for inactive genes. For the active genes, a heterogeneous distribution of +1 nucleosomes, caused by a tug-of-war between two types of remodeling enzymes, is essential for reproducing their density profiles. In particular, while positioning enzymes are known to remodel the +1 nucleosome and align it toward the transcription start site (TSS), spacer enzymes that use a pair of nucleosomes as their substrate can shift the nucleosome array away from the TSS. Competition between these enzymes results in two types of nucleosome density profiles with well- and ill-positioned +1 nucleosome. Finally, we showed that Pol II assisted histone exchange, if occurring at a fast speed, can abolish the impact of remodeling enzymes. By elucidating the role of individual factors, our study reconciles the seemingly conflicting results on the overall impact of transcription in positioning nucleosomes across species.

The importance of unstructured biology has quickly grown during the last decades accompanying the explosion of the number of experimentally resolved protein structures. The idea that structural disorder might be a novel mechanism of protein interaction is widespread in the literature, although the number of statistically significant structural studies supporting this idea is surprisingly low. At variance with previous works, our conclusions rely exclusively on a large-scale analysis of all the 134337 X-ray crystallographic structures of the Protein Data Bank averaged over clusters of almost identical protein sequences. In this work, we explore the complexity of the organisation of all the interaction interfaces observed when a protein lies in alternative complexes, showing that interfaces progressively add up in a hierarchical way, which is reflected in a logarithmic law for the size of the union of the interface regions on the number of distinct interfaces. We further investigate the connection of this complexity with different measures of structural disorder: the standard missing residues and a new definition, called "soft disorder", that covers all the flexible and structurally amorphous residues of a protein. We show evidences that both the interaction interfaces and the soft disordered regions tend to involve roughly the same amino-acids of the protein, and preliminary results suggesting that soft disorder spots those surface regions where new interfaces are progressively accommodated by complex formation. In fact, our results suggest that structurally disordered regions not only carry crucial information about the location of alternative interfaces within complexes, but also about the order of the assembly. We verify these hypotheses in several examples, such as the DNA binding domains of P53 and P73, the C3 exoenzyme, and two known biological orders of assembly. We finally compare our measures of structural disorder with several disorder bioinformatics predictors, showing that these latter are optimised to predict the residues that are missing in all the alternative structures of a protein and they are not able to catch the progressive evolution of the disordered regions upon complex formation. Yet, the predicted residues, when not missing, tend to be characterised as soft disordered regions.

Links between affective states and risk-taking are often characterised using summary statistics from serial decision-making tasks. However, our understanding of these links, and the utility of decision-making as a marker of affect, needs to accommodate the fact that ongoing (e.g., within-task) experience of rewarding and punishing decision outcomes may alter future decisions and affective states. To date, the interplay between affect, ongoing reward and punisher experience, and decision-making has received little detailed investigation. Here, we examined the relationships between reward and loss experience, affect, and decision-making in humans using a novel judgement bias task analysed with a novel computational model. We demonstrated the influence of within-task favourability on decision-making, with more risk-averse/'pessimistic' decisions following more positive previous outcomes and a greater current average earning rate. Additionally, individuals reporting more negative affect tended to exhibit greater risk-seeking decision-making, and, based on our model, estimated time more poorly. We also found that individuals reported more positive affective valence during periods of the task when prediction errors and offered decision outcomes were more positive. Our results thus provide new evidence that (short-term) within-task rewarding and punishing experiences determine both future decision-making and subjectively experienced affective states.

The analysis of single-cell genomics data presents several statistical challenges, and extensive efforts have been made to produce methods for the analysis of this data that impute missing values, address sampling issues and quantify and correct for noise. In spite of such efforts, no consensus on best practices has been established and all current approaches vary substantially based on the available data and empirical tests. The k-Nearest Neighbor Graph (kNN-G) is often used to infer the identities of, and relationships between, cells and is the basis of many widely used dimensionality-reduction and projection methods. The kNN-G has also been the basis for imputation methods using, e.g., neighbor averaging and graph diffusion. However, due to the lack of an agreed-upon optimal objective function for choosing hyperparameters, these methods tend to oversmooth data, thereby resulting in a loss of information with regard to cell identity and the specific gene-to-gene patterns underlying regulatory mechanisms. In this paper, we investigate the tuning of kNN- and diffusion-based denoising methods with a novel non-stochastic method for optimally preserving biologically relevant informative variance in single-cell data. The framework, Denoising Expression data with a Weighted Affinity Kernel and Self-Supervision (DEWÄKSS), uses a self-supervised technique to tune its parameters. We demonstrate that denoising with optimal parameters selected by our objective function (i) is robust to preprocessing methods using data from established benchmarks, (ii) disentangles cellular identity and maintains robust clusters over dimension-reduction methods, (iii) maintains variance along several expression dimensions, unlike previous heuristic-based methods that tend to oversmooth data variance, and (iv) rarely involves diffusion but rather uses a fixed weighted kNN graph for denoising. Together, these findings provide a new understanding of kNN- and diffusion-based denoising methods. Code and example data for DEWÄKSS is available at https://gitlab.com/Xparx/dewakss/-/tree/Tjarnberg2020branch.

Phenomenological relations such as Ohm's or Fourier's law have a venerable history in physics but are still scarce in biology. This situation restrains predictive theory. Here, we build on bacterial "growth laws," which capture physiological feedback between translation and cell growth, to construct a minimal biophysical model for the combined action of ribosome-targeting antibiotics. Our model predicts drug interactions like antagonism or synergy solely from responses to individual drugs. We provide analytical results for limiting cases, which agree well with numerical results. We systematically refine the model by including direct physical interactions of different antibiotics on the ribosome. In a limiting case, our model provides a mechanistic underpinning for recent predictions of higher-order interactions that were derived using entropy maximization. We further refine the model to include the effects of antibiotics that mimic starvation and the presence of resistance genes. We describe the impact of a starvation-mimicking antibiotic on drug interactions analytically and verify it experimentally. Our extended model suggests a change in the type of drug interaction that depends on the strength of resistance, which challenges established rescaling paradigms. We experimentally show that the presence of unregulated resistance genes can lead to altered drug interaction, which agrees with the prediction of the model. While minimal, the model is readily adaptable and opens the door to predicting interactions of second and higher-order in a broad range of biological systems.

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

Lassa fever is an haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus (LASV). There is no vaccine approved against LASV and the only recommended antiviral treatment relies on ribavirin, despite limited evidence of efficacy. Recently, the nucleotide analogue favipiravir showed a high antiviral efficacy, with 100% survival obtained in an otherwise fully lethal non-human primate (NHP) model of Lassa fever. However the mechanism of action of the drug is not known and the absence of pharmacokinetic data limits the translation of these results to the human setting. Here we aimed to better understand the antiviral effect of favipiravir by developping the first mathematical model recapitulating Lassa viral dynamics and treatment. We analyzed the viral dynamics in 24 NHPs left untreated or treated with ribavirin or favipiravir, and we put the results in perspective with those obtained with the same drugs in the context of Ebola infection. Our model estimates favipiravir EC50 in vivo to 2.89 μg.mL-1, which is much lower than what was found against Ebola virus. The main mechanism of action of favipiravir was to decrease virus infectivity, with an efficacy of 91% at the highest dose. Based on our knowledge acquired on the drug pharmacokinetics in humans, our model predicts that favipiravir doses larger than 1200 mg twice a day should have the capability to strongly reduce the production infectious virus and provide a milestone towards a future use in humans.

Dual-reinforcement learning theory proposes behaviour is under the tutelage of a retrospective, value-caching, model-free (MF) system and a prospective-planning, model-based (MB), system. This architecture raises a question as to the degree to which, when devising a plan, a MB controller takes account of influences from its MF counterpart. We present evidence that such a sophisticated self-reflective MB planner incorporates an anticipation of the influences its own MF-proclivities exerts on the execution of its planned future actions. Using a novel bandit task, wherein subjects were periodically allowed to design their environment, we show that reward-assignments were constructed in a manner consistent with a MB system taking account of its MF propensities. Thus, in the task participants assigned higher rewards to bandits that were momentarily associated with stronger MF tendencies. Our findings have implications for a range of decision making domains that includes drug abuse, pre-commitment, and the tension between short and long-term decision horizons in economics.

Natural environments, like soils or the mammalian gut, frequently contain microbial consortia competing within a niche, wherein many species contain genetically encoded mechanisms of interspecies competition. Recent computational work suggests that physical structures in the environment can stabilize local competition between species that would otherwise be subject to competitive exclusion under isotropic conditions. Here we employ Lotka-Volterra models to show that interfacial competition localizes to physical structures, stabilizing competitive ecological networks of many species, even with significant differences in the strength of competitive interactions between species. Within a limited range of parameter space, we show that for stable communities the length-scale of physical structure inversely correlates with the width of the distribution of competitive fitness, such that physical environments with finer structure can sustain a broader spectrum of interspecific competition. These results highlight the potentially stabilizing effects of physical structure on microbial communities and lay groundwork for engineering structures that stabilize and/or select for diverse communities of ecological, medical, or industrial utility.

Bistability is a common mechanism to ensure robust and irreversible cell cycle transitions. Whenever biological parameters or external conditions change such that a threshold is crossed, the system abruptly switches between different cell cycle states. Experimental studies have uncovered mechanisms that can make the shape of the bistable response curve change dynamically in time. Here, we show how such a dynamically changing bistable switch can provide a cell with better control over the timing of cell cycle transitions. Moreover, cell cycle oscillations built on bistable switches are more robust when the bistability is modulated in time. Our results are not specific to cell cycle models and may apply to other bistable systems in which the bistable response curve is time-dependent.

State-of-the-art rare variant association testing methods aggregate the contribution of rare variants in biologically relevant genomic regions to boost statistical power. However, testing single genes separately does not consider the complex interaction landscape of genes, nor the downstream effects of non-synonymous variants on protein structure and function. Here we present the NETwork Propagation-based Assessment of Genetic Events (NETPAGE), an integrative approach aimed at investigating the biological pathways through which rare variation results in complex disease phenotypes. We applied NETPAGE to sporadic, late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), using whole-genome sequencing from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort, as well as whole-exome sequencing from the AD Sequencing Project (ADSP). NETPAGE is based on network propagation, a framework that models information flow on a graph and simulates the percolation of genetic variation through tissue-specific gene interaction networks. The result of network propagation is a set of smoothed gene scores that can be tested for association with disease status through sparse regression. The application of NETPAGE to AD enabled the identification of a set of connected genes whose smoothed variation profile was robustly associated to case-control status, based on gene interactions in the hippocampus. Additionally, smoothed scores significantly correlated with risk of conversion to AD in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) subjects. Lastly, we investigated tissue-specific transcriptional dysregulation of the core genes in two independent RNA-seq datasets, as well as significant enrichments in terms of gene sets with known connections to AD. We present a framework that enables enhanced genetic association testing for a wide range of traits, diseases, and sample sizes.

We introduce a hybrid two-dimensional multiscale model of angiogenesis, the process by which endothelial cells (ECs) migrate from a pre-existing vascular bed in response to local environmental cues and cell-cell interactions, to create a new vascular network. Recent experimental studies have highlighted a central role of cell rearrangements in the formation of angiogenic networks. Our model accounts for this phenomenon via the heterogeneous response of ECs to their microenvironment. These cell rearrangements, in turn, dynamically remodel the local environment. The model reproduces characteristic features of angiogenic sprouting that include branching, chemotactic sensitivity, the brush border effect, and cell mixing. These properties, rather than being hardwired into the model, emerge naturally from the gene expression patterns of individual cells. After calibrating and validating our model against experimental data, we use it to predict how the structure of the vascular network changes as the baseline gene expression levels of the VEGF-Delta-Notch pathway, and the composition of the extracellular environment, vary. In order to investigate the impact of cell rearrangements on the vascular network structure, we introduce the mixing measure, a scalar metric that quantifies cell mixing as the vascular network grows. We calculate the mixing measure for the simulated vascular networks generated by ECs of different lineages (wild type cells and mutant cells with impaired expression of a specific receptor). Our results show that the time evolution of the mixing measure is directly correlated to the generic features of the vascular branching pattern, thus, supporting the hypothesis that cell rearrangements play an essential role in sprouting angiogenesis. Furthermore, we predict that lower cell rearrangement leads to an imbalance between branching and sprout elongation. Since the computation of this statistic requires only individual cell trajectories, it can be computed for networks generated in biological experiments, making it a potential biomarker for pathological angiogenesis.

Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A streptococcus; GAS) is an important human pathogen responsible for mild to severe, life-threatening infections. GAS expresses a wide range of virulence factors, including the M family proteins. The M proteins allow the bacteria to evade parts of the human immune defenses by triggering the formation of a dense coat of plasma proteins surrounding the bacteria, including IgGs. However, the molecular level details of the M1-IgG interaction have remained unclear. Here, we characterized the structure and dynamics of this interaction interface in human plasma on the surface of live bacteria using integrative structural biology, combining cross-linking mass spectrometry and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We show that the primary interaction is formed between the S-domain of M1 and the conserved IgG Fc-domain. In addition, we show evidence for a so far uncharacterized interaction between the A-domain and the IgG Fc-domain. Both these interactions mimic the protein G-IgG interface of group C and G streptococcus. These findings underline a conserved scavenging mechanism used by GAS surface proteins that block the IgG-receptor (FcγR) to inhibit phagocytic killing. We additionally show that we can capture Fab-bound IgGs in a complex background and identify XLs between the constant region of the Fab-domain and certain regions of the M1 protein engaged in the Fab-mediated binding. Our results elucidate the M1-IgG interaction network involved in inhibition of phagocytosis and reveal important M1 peptides that can be further investigated as future vaccine targets.

Intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) are prevalent in the eukaryotic proteome. Common functional roles of IDRs include forming flexible linkers or undergoing allosteric folding-upon-binding. Recent studies have suggested an additional functional role for IDRs: generating steric pressure on the plasma membrane during endocytosis, via molecular crowding. However, in order to accomplish useful functions, such crowding needs to be regulated in space (e.g., endocytic hotspots) and time (e.g., during vesicle formation). In this work, we explore binding-induced regulation of IDR steric volume. We simulate the IDRs of two proteins from Clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) to see if their conformational spaces are regulated via binding-induced expansion. Using Monte-Carlo computational modeling of excluded volumes, we generate large conformational ensembles (3 million) for the IDRs of Epsin and Eps15 and dock the conformers to the alpha subunit of Adaptor Protein 2 (AP2α), their CME binding partner. Our results show that as more molecules of AP2α are bound, the Epsin-derived ensemble shows a significant increase in global dimensions, measured as the radius of Gyration (RG) and the end-to-end distance (EED). Unlike Epsin, Eps15-derived conformers that permit AP2α binding at one motif were found to be more likely to accommodate binding of AP2α at other motifs, suggesting a tendency toward co-accessibility of binding motifs. Co-accessibility was not observed for any pair of binding motifs in Epsin. Thus, we speculate that the disordered regions of Epsin and Eps15 perform different roles during CME, with accessibility in Eps15 allowing it to act as a recruiter of AP2α molecules, while binding-induced expansion of the Epsin disordered region could impose steric pressure and remodel the plasma membrane during vesicle formation.

Investigating metabolic functional capability of a human gut microbiome enables the quantification of microbiome changes, which can cause a phenotypic change of host physiology and disease. One possible way to estimate the functional capability of a microbial community is through inferring metagenomic content from 16S rRNA gene sequences. Genome-scale models (GEMs) can be used as scaffold for functional estimation analysis at a systematic level, however up to date, there is no integrative toolbox based on GEMs for uncovering metabolic functions. Here, we developed the MetGEMs (metagenome-scale models) toolbox, an open-source application for inferring metabolic functions from 16S rRNA gene sequences to facilitate the study of the human gut microbiome by the wider scientific community. The developed toolbox was validated using shotgun metagenomic data and shown to be superior in predicting functional composition in human clinical samples compared to existing state-of-the-art tools. Therefore, the MetGEMs toolbox was subsequently applied for annotating putative enzyme functions and metabolic routes related in human disease using atopic dermatitis as a case study.

Phylogeographic inference allows reconstruction of past geographical spread of pathogens or living organisms by integrating genetic and geographic data. A popular model in continuous phylogeography-with location data provided in the form of latitude and longitude coordinates-describes spread as a Brownian motion (Brownian Motion Phylogeography, BMP) in continuous space and time, akin to similar models of continuous trait evolution. Here, we show that reconstructions using this model can be strongly affected by sampling biases, such as the lack of sampling from certain areas. As an attempt to reduce the effects of sampling bias on BMP, we consider the addition of sequence-free samples from under-sampled areas. While this approach alleviates the effects of sampling bias, in most scenarios this will not be a viable option due to the need for prior knowledge of an outbreak's spatial distribution. We therefore consider an alternative model, the spatial Λ-Fleming-Viot process (ΛFV), which has recently gained popularity in population genetics. Despite the ΛFV's robustness to sampling biases, we find that the different assumptions of the ΛFV and BMP models result in different applicabilities, with the ΛFV being more appropriate for scenarios of endemic spread, and BMP being more appropriate for recent outbreaks or colonizations.

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system's geographical hierarchy.

The chi-square periodogram (CSP), developed over 40 years ago, continues to be one of the most popular methods to estimate the period of circadian (circa 24-h) rhythms. Previous work has indicated the CSP is sometimes less accurate than other methods, but understanding of why and under what conditions remains incomplete. Using simulated rhythmic time-courses, we found that the CSP is prone to underestimating the period in a manner that depends on the true period and the length of the time-course. This underestimation bias is most severe in short time-courses (e.g., 3 days), but is also visible in longer simulated time-courses (e.g., 12 days) and in experimental time-courses of mouse wheel-running and ex vivo bioluminescence. We traced the source of the bias to discontinuities in the periodogram that are related to the number of time-points the CSP uses to calculate the observed variance for a given test period. By revising the calculation to avoid discontinuities, we developed a new version, the greedy CSP, that shows reduced bias and improved accuracy. Nonetheless, even the greedy CSP tended to be less accurate on our simulated time-courses than an alternative method, namely the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. Thus, although our study describes a major improvement to a classic method, it also suggests that users should generally avoid the CSP when estimating the period of biological rhythms.

Chemical graph generators are software packages to generate computer representations of chemical structures adhering to certain boundary conditions. Their development is a research topic of cheminformatics. Chemical graph generators are used in areas such as virtual library generation in drug design, in molecular design with specified properties, called inverse QSAR/QSPR, as well as in organic synthesis design, retrosynthesis or in systems for computer-assisted structure elucidation (CASE). CASE systems again have regained interest for the structure elucidation of unknowns in computational metabolomics, a current area of computational biology.

Bacteria use two-component systems (TCSs) to sense environmental conditions and change gene expression in response to those conditions. To amplify cellular responses, many bacterial TCSs are under positive feedback control, i.e. increase their expression when activated. Escherichia coli Mg2+ -sensing TCS, PhoPQ, in addition to the positive feedback, includes a negative feedback loop via the upregulation of the MgrB protein that inhibits PhoQ. How the interplay of these feedback loops shapes steady-state and dynamical responses of PhoPQ TCS to change in Mg2+ remains poorly understood. In particular, how the presence of MgrB feedback affects the robustness of PhoPQ response to overexpression of TCS is unclear. It is also unclear why the steady-state response to decreasing Mg2+ is biphasic, i.e. plateaus over a range of Mg2+ concentrations, and then increases again at growth-limiting Mg2+. In this study, we use mathematical modeling to identify potential mechanisms behind these experimentally observed dynamical properties. The results make experimentally testable predictions for the regime with response robustness and propose a novel explanation of biphasic response constraining the mechanisms for modulation of PhoQ activity by Mg2+ and MgrB. Finally, we show how the interplay of positive and negative feedback loops affects the network's steady-state sensitivity and response dynamics. In the absence of MgrB feedback, the model predicts oscillations thereby suggesting a general mechanism of oscillatory or pulsatile dynamics in autoregulated TCSs. These results improve the understanding of TCS signaling and other networks with overlaid positive and negative feedback.

Anatomically and biophysically detailed data-driven neuronal models have become widely used tools for understanding and predicting the behavior and function of neurons. Due to the increasing availability of experimental data from anatomical and electrophysiological measurements as well as the growing number of computational and software tools that enable accurate neuronal modeling, there are now a large number of different models of many cell types available in the literature. These models were usually built to capture a few important or interesting properties of the given neuron type, and it is often unknown how they would behave outside their original context. In addition, there is currently no simple way of quantitatively comparing different models regarding how closely they match specific experimental observations. This limits the evaluation, re-use and further development of the existing models. Further, the development of new models could also be significantly facilitated by the ability to rapidly test the behavior of model candidates against the relevant collection of experimental data. We address these problems for the representative case of the CA1 pyramidal cell of the rat hippocampus by developing an open-source Python test suite, which makes it possible to automatically and systematically test multiple properties of models by making quantitative comparisons between the models and electrophysiological data. The tests cover various aspects of somatic behavior, and signal propagation and integration in apical dendrites. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we applied our tests to compare the behavior of several different rat hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cell models from the ModelDB database against electrophysiological data available in the literature, and evaluated how well these models match experimental observations in different domains. We also show how we employed the test suite to aid the development of models within the European Human Brain Project (HBP), and describe the integration of the tests into the validation framework developed in the HBP, with the aim of facilitating more reproducible and transparent model building in the neuroscience community.

A key parameter in epidemiological modeling which characterizes the spread of an infectious disease is the generation time, or more generally the distribution of infectiousness as a function of time since infection. There is increasing evidence supporting a prolonged viral shedding window for COVID-19, but the transmissibility in this phase is unclear. Based on this, we develop a generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Resistant (SEIR) model including an additional compartment of chronically infected individuals who can stay infectious for a longer duration than the reported generation time, but with infectivity reduced to varying degrees. Using the incidence and fatality data from different countries, we first show that such an assumption also yields a plausible model in explaining the data observed prior to the easing of the lockdown measures (relaxation). We then test the predictive power of this model for different durations and levels of prolonged infectiousness using the incidence data after the introduction of relaxation in Switzerland, and compare it with a model without the chronically infected population to represent the models conventionally used. We show that in case of a gradual easing on the lockdown measures, the predictions of the model including the chronically infected population vary considerably from those obtained under a model in which prolonged infectiousness is not taken into account. Although the existence of a chronically infected population still remains largely hypothetical, we believe that our results provide tentative evidence to consider a chronically infected population as an alternative modeling approach to better interpret the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.

Gene regulatory network inference is essential to uncover complex relationships among gene pathways and inform downstream experiments, ultimately enabling regulatory network re-engineering. Network inference from transcriptional time-series data requires accurate, interpretable, and efficient determination of causal relationships among thousands of genes. Here, we develop Bootstrap Elastic net regression from Time Series (BETS), a statistical framework based on Granger causality for the recovery of a directed gene network from transcriptional time-series data. BETS uses elastic net regression and stability selection from bootstrapped samples to infer causal relationships among genes. BETS is highly parallelized, enabling efficient analysis of large transcriptional data sets. We show competitive accuracy on a community benchmark, the DREAM4 100-gene network inference challenge, where BETS is one of the fastest among methods of similar performance and additionally infers whether causal effects are activating or inhibitory. We apply BETS to transcriptional time-series data of differentially-expressed genes from A549 cells exposed to glucocorticoids over a period of 12 hours. We identify a network of 2768 genes and 31,945 directed edges (FDR ≤ 0.2). We validate inferred causal network edges using two external data sources: Overexpression experiments on the same glucocorticoid system, and genetic variants associated with inferred edges in primary lung tissue in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) v6 project. BETS is available as an open source software package at https://github.com/lujonathanh/BETS.

After slowing down the spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19, many countries have started to relax their confinement measures in the face of critical damage to socioeconomic structures. At this stage, it is desirable to monitor the degree to which political measures or social affairs have exerted influence on the spread of disease. Though it is difficult to trace back individual transmission of infections whose incubation periods are long and highly variable, estimating the average spreading rate is possible if a proper mathematical model can be devised to analyze daily event-occurrences. To render an accurate assessment, we have devised a state-space method for fitting a discrete-time variant of the Hawkes process to a given dataset of daily confirmed cases. The proposed method detects changes occurring in each country and assesses the impact of social events in terms of the temporally varying reproduction number, which corresponds to the average number of cases directly caused by a single infected case. Moreover, the proposed method can be used to predict the possible consequences of alternative political measures. This information can serve as a reference for behavioral guidelines that should be adopted according to the varying risk of infection.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones (∼100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly-on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu-Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country.

Beta-lactam- and in particular carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae represent a major public health threat. Despite strong variation of resistance across geographical settings, there is limited understanding of the underlying drivers. To assess these drivers, we developed a transmission model of cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae. The model is parameterized using antibiotic consumption and demographic data from eleven European countries and fitted to the resistance rates for Klebsiella pneumoniae for these settings. The impact of potential drivers of resistance is then assessed in counterfactual analyses. Based on reported consumption data, the model could simultaneously fit the prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL and CRK) across eleven European countries over eleven years. The fit could explain the large between-country variability of resistance in terms of consumption patterns and fitted differences in hospital transmission rates. Based on this fit, a counterfactual analysis found that reducing nosocomial transmission and antibiotic consumption in the hospital had the strongest impact on ESBL and CRK prevalence. Antibiotic consumption in the community also affected ESBL prevalence but its relative impact was weaker than inpatient consumption. Finally, we used the model to estimate a moderate fitness cost of CRK and ESBL at the population level. This work highlights the disproportionate role of antibiotic consumption in the hospital and of nosocomial transmission for resistance in gram-negative bacteria at a European level. This indicates that infection control and antibiotic stewardship measures should play a major role in limiting resistance even at the national or regional level.

The connection between stimulus perception and time perception remains unknown. The present study combines human and rat psychophysics with sensory cortical neuronal firing to construct a computational model for the percept of elapsed time embedded within sense of touch. When subjects judged the duration of a vibration applied to the fingertip (human) or whiskers (rat), increasing stimulus intensity led to increasing perceived duration. Symmetrically, increasing vibration duration led to increasing perceived intensity. We modeled real spike trains recorded from vibrissal somatosensory cortex as input to dual leaky integrators-an intensity integrator with short time constant and a duration integrator with long time constant-generating neurometric functions that replicated the actual psychophysical functions of rats. Returning to human psychophysics, we then confirmed specific predictions of the dual leaky integrator model. This study offers a framework, based on sensory coding and subsequent accumulation of sensory drive, to account for how a feeling of the passage of time accompanies the tactile sensory experience.

Erratum in PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Oct 25;17(10):e1009551.

Glioblastoma is the most aggressive tumor of the central nervous system, due to its great infiltration capacity. Understanding the mechanisms that regulate the Glioblastoma invasion front is a major challenge with preeminent potential clinical relevances. In the infiltration front, the key features of tumor dynamics relate to biochemical and biomechanical aspects, which result in the extension of cellular protrusions known as tumor microtubes. The coordination of metalloproteases expression, extracellular matrix degradation, and integrin activity emerges as a leading mechanism that facilitates Glioblastoma expansion and infiltration in uncontaminated brain regions. We propose a novel multidisciplinary approach, based on in vivo experiments in Drosophila and mathematical models, that describes the dynamics of active and inactive integrins in relation to matrix metalloprotease concentration and tumor density at the Glioblastoma invasion front. The mathematical model is based on a non-linear system of evolution equations in which the mechanisms leading chemotaxis, haptotaxis, and front dynamics compete with the movement induced by the saturated flux in porous media. This approach is able to capture the relative influences of the involved agents and reproduce the formation of patterns, which drive tumor front evolution. These patterns have the value of providing biomarker information that is related to the direction of the dynamical evolution of the front and based on static measures of proteins in several tumor samples. Furthermore, we consider in our model biomechanical elements, like the tissue porosity, as indicators of the healthy tissue resistance to tumor progression.

Many cellular processes require cell polarization to be maintained as the cell changes shape, grows or moves. Without feedback mechanisms relaying information about cell shape to the polarity molecular machinery, the coordination between cell polarization and morphogenesis, movement or growth would not be possible. Here we theoretically and computationally study the role of a genetically-encoded mechanical feedback (in the Cell Wall Integrity pathway) as a potential coordination mechanism between cell morphogenesis and polarity during budding yeast mating projection growth. We developed a coarse-grained continuum description of the coupled dynamics of cell polarization and morphogenesis as well as 3D stochastic simulations of the molecular polarization machinery in the evolving cell shape. Both theoretical approaches show that in the absence of mechanical feedback (or in the presence of weak feedback), cell polarity cannot be maintained at the projection tip during growth, with the polarization cap wandering off the projection tip, arresting morphogenesis. In contrast, for mechanical feedback strengths above a threshold, cells can robustly maintain cell polarization at the tip and simultaneously sustain mating projection growth. These results indicate that the mechanical feedback encoded in the Cell Wall Integrity pathway can provide important positional information to the molecular machinery in the cell, thereby enabling the coordination of cell polarization and morphogenesis.

Erratum in PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Jun 1;18(6):e1010224.

Computational methods for protein structure modelling are routinely used to complement experimental structure determination, thus they help to address a broad spectrum of scientific questions in biomedical research. The most accurate methods today are based on homology modelling, i.e. detecting a homologue to the desired target sequence that can be used as a template for modelling. Here we present a versatile open source homology modelling toolbox as foundation for flexible and computationally efficient modelling workflows. ProMod3 is a fully scriptable software platform that can perform all steps required to generate a protein model by homology. Its modular design aims at fast prototyping of novel algorithms and implementing flexible modelling pipelines. Common modelling tasks, such as loop modelling, sidechain modelling or generating a full protein model by homology, are provided as production ready pipelines, forming the starting point for own developments and enhancements. ProMod3 is the central software component of the widely used SWISS-MODEL web-server.

In vivo calcium imaging through microendoscopic lenses enables imaging of neuronal populations deep within the brains of freely moving animals. Previously, a constrained matrix factorization approach (CNMF-E) has been suggested to extract single-neuronal activity from microendoscopic data. However, this approach relies on offline batch processing of the entire video data and is demanding both in terms of computing and memory requirements. These drawbacks prevent its applicability to the analysis of large datasets and closed-loop experimental settings. Here we address both issues by introducing two different online algorithms for extracting neuronal activity from streaming microendoscopic data. Our first algorithm, OnACID-E, presents an online adaptation of the CNMF-E algorithm, which dramatically reduces its memory and computation requirements. Our second algorithm proposes a convolution-based background model for microendoscopic data that enables even faster (real time) processing. Our approach is modular and can be combined with existing online motion artifact correction and activity deconvolution methods to provide a highly scalable pipeline for microendoscopic data analysis. We apply our algorithms on four previously published typical experimental datasets and show that they yield similar high-quality results as the popular offline approach, but outperform it with regard to computing time and memory requirements. They can be used instead of CNMF-E to process pre-recorded data with boosted speeds and dramatically reduced memory requirements. Further, they newly enable online analysis of live-streaming data even on a laptop.

Mathematical models of metabolic networks utilize simulation to study system-level mechanisms and functions. Various approaches have been used to model the steady state behavior of metabolic networks using genome-scale reconstructions, but formulating dynamic models from such reconstructions continues to be a key challenge. Here, we present the Mass Action Stoichiometric Simulation Python (MASSpy) package, an open-source computational framework for dynamic modeling of metabolism. MASSpy utilizes mass action kinetics and detailed chemical mechanisms to build dynamic models of complex biological processes. MASSpy adds dynamic modeling tools to the COnstraint-Based Reconstruction and Analysis Python (COBRApy) package to provide an unified framework for constraint-based and kinetic modeling of metabolic networks. MASSpy supports high-performance dynamic simulation through its implementation of libRoadRunner: the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) simulation engine. Three examples are provided to demonstrate how to use MASSpy: (1) a validation of the MASSpy modeling tool through dynamic simulation of detailed mechanisms of enzyme regulation; (2) a feature demonstration using a workflow for generating ensemble of kinetic models using Monte Carlo sampling to approximate missing numerical values of parameters and to quantify biological uncertainty, and (3) a case study in which MASSpy is utilized to overcome issues that arise when integrating experimental data with the computation of functional states of detailed biological mechanisms. MASSpy represents a powerful tool to address challenges that arise in dynamic modeling of metabolic networks, both at small and large scales.

Sphingolipids are a vital component of plant cellular endomembranes and carry out multiple functional and regulatory roles. Different sphingolipid species confer rigidity to the membrane structure, facilitate trafficking of secretory proteins, and initiate programmed cell death. Although the regulation of the sphingolipid pathway is yet to be uncovered, increasing evidence has pointed to orosomucoid proteins (ORMs) playing a major regulatory role and potentially interacting with a number of components in the pathway, including both enzymes and sphingolipids. However, experimental exploration of new regulatory interactions is time consuming and often infeasible. In this work, a computational approach was taken to address this challenge. A metabolic network of the sphingolipid pathway in plants was reconstructed. The steady-state rates of reactions in the network were then determined through measurements of growth and cellular composition of the different sphingolipids in Arabidopsis seedlings. The Ensemble modeling framework was modified to accurately account for activation mechanisms and subsequently used to generate sets of kinetic parameters that converge to the measured steady-state fluxes in a thermodynamically consistent manner. In addition, the framework was appended with an additional module to automate screening the parameters and to output models consistent with previously reported network responses to different perturbations. By analyzing the network's response in the presence of different combinations of regulatory mechanisms, the model captured the experimentally observed repressive effect of ORMs on serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT). Furthermore, predictions point to a second regulatory role of ORM proteins, namely as an activator of class II (or LOH1 and LOH3) ceramide synthases. This activating role was found to be modulated by the concentration of free ceramides, where an accumulation of these sphingolipid species dampened the activating effect of ORMs on ceramide synthase. The predictions pave the way for future guided experiments and have implications in engineering crops with higher biotic stress tolerance.

Departures of normal blood flow and metabolite distribution from the cerebral microvasculature into neuronal tissue have been implicated with age-related neurodegeneration. Mathematical models informed by spatially and temporally distributed neuroimage data are becoming instrumental for reconstructing a coherent picture of normal and pathological oxygen delivery throughout the brain. Unfortunately, current mathematical models of cerebral blood flow and oxygen exchange become excessively large in size. They further suffer from boundary effects due to incomplete or physiologically inaccurate computational domains, numerical instabilities due to enormous length scale differences, and convergence problems associated with condition number deterioration at fine mesh resolutions. Our proposed simple finite volume discretization scheme for blood and oxygen microperfusion simulations does not require expensive mesh generation leading to the critical benefit that it drastically reduces matrix size and bandwidth of the coupled oxygen transfer problem. The compact problem formulation yields rapid and stable convergence. Moreover, boundary effects can effectively be suppressed by generating very large replica of the cortical microcirculation in silico using an image-based cerebrovascular network synthesis algorithm, so that boundaries of the perfusion simulations are far removed from the regions of interest. Massive simulations over sizeable portions of the cortex with feature resolution down to the micron scale become tractable with even modest computer resources. The feasibility and accuracy of the novel method is demonstrated and validated with in vivo oxygen perfusion data in cohorts of young and aged mice. Our oxygen exchange simulations quantify steep gradients near penetrating blood vessels and point towards pathological changes that might cause neurodegeneration in aged brains. This research aims to explain mechanistic interactions between anatomical structures and how they might change in diseases or with age. Rigorous quantification of age-related changes is of significant interest because it might aide in the search for imaging biomarkers for dementia and Alzheimer's disease.

A major goal in neuroscience is to understand how populations of neurons code for stimuli or actions. While the number of neurons that can be recorded simultaneously is increasing at a fast pace, in most cases these recordings cannot access a complete population: some neurons that carry relevant information remain unrecorded. In particular, it is hard to simultaneously record all the neurons of the same type in a given area. Recent progress have made possible to profile each recorded neuron in a given area thanks to genetic and physiological tools, and to pool together recordings from neurons of the same type across different experimental sessions. However, it is unclear how to infer the activity of a full population of neurons of the same type from these sequential recordings. Neural networks exhibit collective behaviour, e.g. noise correlations and synchronous activity, that are not directly captured by a conditionally-independent model that would just put together the spike trains from sequential recordings. Here we show that we can infer the activity of a full population of retina ganglion cells from sequential recordings, using a novel method based on copula distributions and maximum entropy modeling. From just the spiking response of each ganglion cell to a repeated stimulus, and a few pairwise recordings, we could predict the noise correlations using copulas, and then the full activity of a large population of ganglion cells of the same type using maximum entropy modeling. Remarkably, we could generalize to predict the population responses to different stimuli with similar light conditions and even to different experiments. We could therefore use our method to construct a very large population merging cells' responses from different experiments. We predicted that synchronous activity in ganglion cell populations saturates only for patches larger than 1.5mm in radius, beyond what is today experimentally accessible.

The study of response to cancer treatments has benefited greatly from the contribution of different omics data but their interpretation is sometimes difficult. Some mathematical models based on prior biological knowledge of signaling pathways facilitate this interpretation but often require fitting of their parameters using perturbation data. We propose a more qualitative mechanistic approach, based on logical formalism and on the sole mapping and interpretation of omics data, and able to recover differences in sensitivity to gene inhibition without model training. This approach is showcased by the study of BRAF inhibition in patients with melanomas and colorectal cancers who experience significant differences in sensitivity despite similar omics profiles. We first gather information from literature and build a logical model summarizing the regulatory network of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway surrounding BRAF, with factors involved in the BRAF inhibition resistance mechanisms. The relevance of this model is verified by automatically assessing that it qualitatively reproduces response or resistance behaviors identified in the literature. Data from over 100 melanoma and colorectal cancer cell lines are then used to validate the model's ability to explain differences in sensitivity. This generic model is transformed into personalized cell line-specific logical models by integrating the omics information of the cell lines as constraints of the model. The use of mutations alone allows personalized models to correlate significantly with experimental sensitivities to BRAF inhibition, both from drug and CRISPR targeting, and even better with the joint use of mutations and RNA, supporting multi-omics mechanistic models. A comparison of these untrained models with learning approaches highlights similarities in interpretation and complementarity depending on the size of the datasets. This parsimonious pipeline, which can easily be extended to other biological questions, makes it possible to explore the mechanistic causes of the response to treatment, on an individualized basis.

Mapping of high-throughput sequencing (HTS) reads to a single arbitrary reference genome is a frequently used approach in microbial genomics. However, the choice of a reference may represent a source of errors that may affect subsequent analyses such as the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and phylogenetic inference. In this work, we evaluated the effect of reference choice on short-read sequence data from five clinically and epidemiologically relevant bacteria (Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella pneumophila, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Serratia marcescens). Publicly available whole-genome assemblies encompassing the genomic diversity of these species were selected as reference sequences, and read alignment statistics, SNP calling, recombination rates, dN/dS ratios, and phylogenetic trees were evaluated depending on the mapping reference. The choice of different reference genomes proved to have an impact on almost all the parameters considered in the five species. In addition, these biases had potential epidemiological implications such as including/excluding isolates of particular clades and the estimation of genetic distances. These findings suggest that the single reference approach might introduce systematic errors during mapping that affect subsequent analyses, particularly for data sets with isolates from genetically diverse backgrounds. In any case, exploring the effects of different references on the final conclusions is highly recommended.

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.

Both neurophysiological and psychophysical experiments have pointed out the crucial role of recurrent and feedback connections to process context-dependent information in the early visual cortex. While numerous models have accounted for feedback effects at either neural or representational level, none of them were able to bind those two levels of analysis. Is it possible to describe feedback effects at both levels using the same model? We answer this question by combining Predictive Coding (PC) and Sparse Coding (SC) into a hierarchical and convolutional framework applied to realistic problems. In the Sparse Deep Predictive Coding (SDPC) model, the SC component models the internal recurrent processing within each layer, and the PC component describes the interactions between layers using feedforward and feedback connections. Here, we train a 2-layered SDPC on two different databases of images, and we interpret it as a model of the early visual system (V1 & V2). We first demonstrate that once the training has converged, SDPC exhibits oriented and localized receptive fields in V1 and more complex features in V2. Second, we analyze the effects of feedback on the neural organization beyond the classical receptive field of V1 neurons using interaction maps. These maps are similar to association fields and reflect the Gestalt principle of good continuation. We demonstrate that feedback signals reorganize interaction maps and modulate neural activity to promote contour integration. Third, we demonstrate at the representational level that the SDPC feedback connections are able to overcome noise in input images. Therefore, the SDPC captures the association field principle at the neural level which results in a better reconstruction of blurred images at the representational level.

The mammalian visual system has been the focus of countless experimental and theoretical studies designed to elucidate principles of neural computation and sensory coding. Most theoretical work has focused on networks intended to reflect developing or mature neural circuitry, in both health and disease. Few computational studies have attempted to model changes that occur in neural circuitry as an organism ages non-pathologically. In this work we contribute to closing this gap, studying how physiological changes correlated with advanced age impact the computational performance of a spiking network model of primary visual cortex (V1). Our results demonstrate that deterioration of homeostatic regulation of excitatory firing, coupled with long-term synaptic plasticity, is a sufficient mechanism to reproduce features of observed physiological and functional changes in neural activity data, specifically declines in inhibition and in selectivity to oriented stimuli. This suggests a potential causality between dysregulation of neuron firing and age-induced changes in brain physiology and functional performance. While this does not rule out deeper underlying causes or other mechanisms that could give rise to these changes, our approach opens new avenues for exploring these underlying mechanisms in greater depth and making predictions for future experiments.

At very early embryonic stages, when embryos are composed of just a few cells, establishing the correct packing arrangements (contacts) between cells is essential for the proper development of the organism. As early as the 4-cell stage, the observed cellular packings in different species are distinct and, in many cases, differ from the equilibrium packings expected for simple adherent and deformable particles. It is unclear what are the specific roles that different physical parameters, such as the forces between blastomeres, their division times, orientation of cell division and embryonic confinement, play in the control of these packing configurations. Here we simulate the non-equilibrium dynamics of cells in early embryos and systematically study how these different parameters affect embryonic packings at the 4-cell stage. In the absence of embryo confinement, we find that cellular packings are not robust, with multiple packing configurations simultaneously possible and very sensitive to parameter changes. Our results indicate that the geometry of the embryo confinement determines the packing configurations at the 4-cell stage, removing degeneracy in the possible packing configurations and overriding division rules in most cases. Overall, these results indicate that physical confinement of the embryo is essential to robustly specify proper cellular arrangements at very early developmental stages.

Single-cell RNA-Sequencing (scRNA-seq) is the most widely used high-throughput technology to measure genome-wide gene expression at the single-cell level. One of the most common analyses of scRNA-seq data detects distinct subpopulations of cells through the use of unsupervised clustering algorithms. However, recent advances in scRNA-seq technologies result in current datasets ranging from thousands to millions of cells. Popular clustering algorithms, such as k-means, typically require the data to be loaded entirely into memory and therefore can be slow or impossible to run with large datasets. To address this problem, we developed the mbkmeans R/Bioconductor package, an open-source implementation of the mini-batch k-means algorithm. Our package allows for on-disk data representations, such as the common HDF5 file format widely used for single-cell data, that do not require all the data to be loaded into memory at one time. We demonstrate the performance of the mbkmeans package using large datasets, including one with 1.3 million cells. We also highlight and compare the computing performance of mbkmeans against the standard implementation of k-means and other popular single-cell clustering methods. Our software package is available in Bioconductor at https://bioconductor.org/packages/mbkmeans.

The Metabolically Coupled Replicator System (MCRS) model of early chemical evolution offers a plausible and efficient mechanism for the self-assembly and the maintenance of prebiotic RNA replicator communities, the likely predecessors of all life forms on Earth. The MCRS can keep different replicator species together due to their mandatory metabolic cooperation and limited mobility on mineral surfaces, catalysing reaction steps of a coherent reaction network that produces their own monomers from externally supplied compounds. The complexity of the MCRS chemical engine can be increased by assuming that each replicator species may catalyse more than a single reaction of metabolism, with different catalytic activities of the same RNA sequence being in a trade-off relation: one catalytic activity of a promiscuous ribozyme can increase only at the expense of the others on the same RNA strand. Using extensive spatially explicit computer simulations we have studied the possibility and the conditions of evolving ribozyme promiscuity in an initial community of single-activity replicators attached to a 2D surface, assuming an additional trade-off between replicability and catalytic activity. We conclude that our promiscuous replicators evolve under weak catalytic trade-off, relatively strong activity/replicability trade-off and low surface mobility of the replicators and the metabolites they produce, whereas catalytic specialists benefit from very strong catalytic trade-off, weak activity/replicability trade-off and high mobility. We argue that the combination of conditions for evolving promiscuity are more probable to occur for surface-bound RNA replicators, suggesting that catalytic promiscuity may have been a significant factor in the diversification of prebiotic metabolic reaction networks.

Learning transfer (i.e. accelerated learning over a series of structurally related learning tasks) differentiates species and age-groups, but the evolutionary and developmental implications of such differences are unclear. To this end, the relational schema induction paradigm employing tasks that share algebraic (group-like) structures was introduced to contrast stimulus-independent (relational) versus stimulus-dependent (associative) learning processes. However, a theory explaining this kind of relational learning transfer has not been forthcoming beyond a general appeal to some form of structure-mapping, as typically assumed in models of analogy. In this paper, we provide a theory of relational schema induction as a "reconstruction" process: the algebraic structure underlying transfer is reconstructed by comparing stimulus relations, learned within each task, for structural consistency across tasks-formally, the theory derives from a category theory version of Tannakian reconstruction. The theory also applies to non-human studies of relational concepts, thereby placing human and non-human transfer on common ground for sharper comparison and contrast. As the theory and paradigm do not depend on linguistic ability, we also have a way for pinpointing where aspects of human learning diverge from other species without begging the question of language.

The extraction of electrophysiological features that reliably forecast the occurrence of seizures is one of the most challenging goals in epilepsy research. Among possible approaches to tackle this problem is the use of active probing paradigms in which responses to stimuli are used to detect underlying system changes leading up to seizures. This work evaluates the theoretical and mechanistic underpinnings of this strategy using two coupled populations of the well-studied Wendling neural mass model. Different model settings are evaluated, shifting parameters (excitability, slow inhibition, or inter-population coupling gains) from normal towards ictal states while probing stimuli are applied every 2 seconds to the input of either one or both populations. The correlation between the extracted features and the ictogenic parameter shifting indicates if the impending transition to the ictal state may be identified in advance. Results show that not only can the response to the probing stimuli forecast seizures but this is true regardless of the altered ictogenic parameter. That is, similar feature changes are highlighted by probing stimuli responses in advance of the seizure including: increased response variance and lag-1 autocorrelation, decreased skewness, and increased mutual information between the outputs of both model subsets. These changes were mostly restricted to the stimulated population, showing a local effect of this perturbational approach. The transition latencies from normal activity to sustained discharges of spikes were not affected, suggesting that stimuli had no pro-ictal effects. However, stimuli were found to elicit interictal-like spikes just before the transition to the ictal state. Furthermore, the observed feature changes highlighted by probing the neuronal populations may reflect the phenomenon of critical slowing down, where increased recovery times from perturbations may signal the loss of a systems' resilience and are common hallmarks of an impending critical transition. These results provide more evidence that active probing approaches highlight information about underlying system changes involved in ictogenesis and may be able to play a role in assisting seizure forecasting methods which can be incorporated into early-warning systems that ultimately enable closing the loop for targeted seizure-controlling interventions.

Metabolic engineering in the post-genomic era is characterised by the development of new methods for metabolomics and fluxomics, supported by the integration of genetic engineering tools and mathematical modelling. Particularly, constraint-based stoichiometric models have been widely studied: (i) flux balance analysis (FBA) (in silico), and (ii) metabolic flux analysis (MFA) (in vivo). Recent studies have enabled the incorporation of thermodynamics and metabolomics data to improve the predictive capabilities of these approaches. However, an in-depth comparison and evaluation of these methods is lacking. This study presents a thorough analysis of two different in silico methods tested against experimental data (metabolomics and 13C-MFA) for the mesophile Escherichia coli. In particular, a modified version of the recently published matTFA toolbox was created, providing a broader range of physicochemical parameters. Validating against experimental data allowed the determination of the best physicochemical parameters to perform the TFA (Thermodynamics-based Flux Analysis). An analysis of flux pattern changes in the central carbon metabolism between 13C-MFA and TFA highlighted the limited capabilities of both approaches for elucidating the anaplerotic fluxes. In addition, a method based on centrality measures was suggested to identify important metabolites that (if quantified) would allow to further constrain the TFA. Finally, this study emphasised the need for standardisation in the fluxomics community: novel approaches are frequently released but a thorough comparison with currently accepted methods is not always performed.

Assessing directional influences between neurons is instrumental to understand how brain circuits process information. To this end, Granger causality, a technique originally developed for time-continuous signals, has been extended to discrete spike trains. A fundamental assumption of this technique is that the temporal evolution of neuronal responses must be due only to endogenous interactions between recorded units, including self-interactions. This assumption is however rarely met in neurophysiological studies, where the response of each neuron is modulated by other exogenous causes such as, for example, other unobserved units or slow adaptation processes. Here, we propose a novel point-process Granger causality technique that is robust with respect to the two most common exogenous modulations observed in real neuronal responses: within-trial temporal variations in spiking rate and between-trial variability in their magnitudes. This novel method works by explicitly including both types of modulations into the generalized linear model of the neuronal conditional intensity function (CIF). We then assess the causal influence of neuron i onto neuron j by measuring the relative reduction of neuron j's point process likelihood obtained considering or removing neuron i. CIF's hyper-parameters are set on a per-neuron basis by minimizing Akaike's information criterion. In synthetic data sets, generated by means of random processes or networks of integrate-and-fire units, the proposed method recovered with high accuracy, sensitivity and robustness the underlying ground-truth connectivity pattern. Application of presently available point-process Granger causality techniques produced instead a significant number of false positive connections. In real spiking responses recorded from neurons in the monkey pre-motor cortex (area F5), our method revealed many causal relationships between neurons as well as the temporal structure of their interactions. Given its robustness our method can be effectively applied to real neuronal data. Furthermore, its explicit estimate of the effects of unobserved causes on the recorded neuronal firing patterns can help decomposing their temporal variations into endogenous and exogenous components.

MOTIVATION: A comprehensive characterization of the humoral response towards a specific antigen requires quantification of the B-cell receptor repertoire by next-generation sequencing (BCR-Seq), as well as the analysis of serum antibodies against this antigen, using proteomics. The proteomic analysis is challenging since it necessitates the mapping of antigen-specific peptides to individual B-cell clones. RESULTS: The PASA web server provides a robust computational platform for the analysis and integration of data obtained from proteomics of serum antibodies. PASA maps peptides derived from antibodies raised against a specific antigen to corresponding antibody sequences. It then analyzes and integrates proteomics and BCR-Seq data, thus providing a comprehensive characterization of the humoral response. The PASA web server is freely available at https://pasa.tau.ac.il and open to all users without a login requirement.

Mitochondria are vital organelles inside the cell and contribute to intracellular calcium (Ca2+) dynamics directly and indirectly via calcium exchange, ATP generation, and production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Arrhythmogenic Ca2+ alternans in cardiac myocytes has been observed in experiments under abnormal mitochondrial depolarization. However, complex signaling pathways and Ca2+ cycling between mitochondria and cytosol make it difficult in experiments to reveal the underlying mechanisms of Ca2+ alternans under abnormal mitochondrial depolarization. In this study, we use a newly developed spatiotemporal ventricular myocyte computer model that integrates mitochondrial Ca2+ cycling and complex signaling pathways to investigate the mechanisms of Ca2+ alternans during mitochondrial depolarization. We find that elevation of ROS in response to mitochondrial depolarization plays a critical role in promoting Ca2+ alternans. Further examination reveals that the redox effect of ROS on ryanodine receptors and sarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase synergistically promote alternans. Upregulation of mitochondrial Ca2+ uniporter promotes Ca2+ alternans via Ca2+-dependent mitochondrial permeability transition pore opening. Due to their relatively slow kinetics, oxidized Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II activation and ATP do not play significant roles acutely in the genesis of Ca2+ alternans after mitochondrial depolarization, but their roles can be significant in the long term, mainly through their effects on sarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase activity. In conclusion, mitochondrial depolarization promotes Ca2+ alternans acutely via the redox effect of ROS and chronically by ATP reduction. It suppresses Ca2+ alternans chronically through oxidized Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II activation.

Cancer treatments can be highly toxic and frequently only a subset of the patient population will benefit from a given treatment. Tumour genetic makeup plays an important role in cancer drug sensitivity. We suspect that gene expression markers could be used as a decision aid for treatment selection or dosage tuning. Using in vitro cancer cell line dose-response and gene expression data from the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) project, we build a dose-varying regression model. Unlike existing approaches, this allows us to estimate dosage-dependent associations with gene expression. We include the transcriptomic profiles as dose-invariant covariates into the regression model and assume that their effect varies smoothly over the dosage levels. A two-stage variable selection algorithm (variable screening followed by penalized regression) is used to identify genetic factors that are associated with drug response over the varying dosages. We evaluate the effectiveness of our method using simulation studies focusing on the choice of tuning parameters and cross-validation for predictive accuracy assessment. We further apply the model to data from five BRAF targeted compounds applied to different cancer cell lines under different dosage levels. We highlight the dosage-dependent dynamics of the associations between the selected genes and drug response, and we perform pathway enrichment analysis to show that the selected genes play an important role in pathways related to tumorigenesis and DNA damage response.

In human microbiota, the prevention or promotion of invasions can be crucial to human health. Invasion outcomes, in turn, are impacted by the composition of resident communities and interactions of resident members with the invader. Here we study how interactions influence invasion outcomes in microbial communities, when interactions are primarily mediated by chemicals that are released into or consumed from the environment. We use a previously developed dynamic model which explicitly includes species abundances and the concentrations of chemicals that mediate species interaction. Using this model, we assessed how species interactions impact invasion by simulating a new species being introduced into an existing resident community. We classified invasion outcomes as resistance, augmentation, displacement, or disruption depending on whether the richness of the resident community was maintained or decreased and whether the invader was maintained in the community or went extinct. We found that as the number of invaders introduced into the resident community increased, disruption rather than augmentation became more prevalent. With more facilitation of the invader by the resident community, resistance outcomes were replaced by displacement and augmentation. By contrast, with more facilitation among residents, displacement outcomes shifted to resistance. When facilitation of the resident community by the invader was eliminated, the majority of augmentation outcomes turned into displacement, while when inhibition of residents by invaders was eliminated, invasion outcomes were largely unaffected. Our results suggest that a better understanding of interactions within resident communities and between residents and invaders is crucial to predicting the success of invasions into microbial communities.

Erratum in PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Jun 2;18(6):e1010222.

Owing to their plasticity, intrinsically disordered and multidomain proteins require descriptions based on multiple conformations, thus calling for techniques and analysis tools that are capable of dealing with conformational ensembles rather than a single protein structure. Here, we introduce DEER-PREdict, a software program to predict Double Electron-Electron Resonance distance distributions as well as Paramagnetic Relaxation Enhancement rates from ensembles of protein conformations. DEER-PREdict uses an established rotamer library approach to describe the paramagnetic probes which are bound covalently to the protein.DEER-PREdict has been designed to operate efficiently on large conformational ensembles, such as those generated by molecular dynamics simulation, to facilitate the validation or refinement of molecular models as well as the interpretation of experimental data. The performance and accuracy of the software is demonstrated with experimentally characterized protein systems: HIV-1 protease, T4 Lysozyme and Acyl-CoA-binding protein. DEER-PREdict is open source (GPLv3) and available at github.com/KULL-Centre/DEERpredict and as a Python PyPI package pypi.org/project/DEERPREdict.

Erratum in PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Apr 7;17(4):e1008910.

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020 on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Our work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.

COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show-as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence-that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and out-of, lockdown effectively mitigates second-wave effects, while allowing continued, albeit reduced, economic activity. Periodicity confers (i) predictability, which is essential for economic sustainability, and (ii) robustness, since lockdown periods are not activated by uncertain measurements over short time scales. In turn-while not eliminating the virus-this fast switching policy is sustainable over time, and it mitigates the infection until a vaccine or treatment becomes available, while alleviating the social costs associated with long lockdowns. Typically, the policy might be in the form of 1-day of work followed by 6-days of lockdown every week (or perhaps 2 days working, 5 days off) and it can be modified at a slow-rate based on measurements filtered over longer time scales. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of high frequency switching interventions in post lockdown mitigation. All code is available on Github at https://github.com/V4p1d/FPSP_Covid19. A software tool has also been developed so that interested parties can explore the proof-of-concept system.

Repeated interaction promotes cooperation among rational individuals under the shadow of future, but it is hard to maintain cooperation when a large number of error-prone individuals are involved. One way to construct a cooperative Nash equilibrium is to find a 'friendly-rivalry' strategy, which aims at full cooperation but never allows the co-players to be better off. Recently it has been shown that for the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in the presence of error, a friendly rival can be designed with the following five rules: Cooperate if everyone did, accept punishment for your own mistake, punish defection, recover cooperation if you find a chance, and defect in all the other circumstances. In this work, we construct such a friendly-rivalry strategy for the iterated n-person public-goods game by generalizing those five rules. The resulting strategy makes a decision with referring to the previous m = 2n - 1 rounds. A friendly-rivalry strategy for n = 2 inherently has evolutionary robustness in the sense that no mutant strategy has higher fixation probability in this population than that of a neutral mutant. Our evolutionary simulation indeed shows excellent performance of the proposed strategy in a broad range of environmental conditions when n = 2 and 3.

Neuroplasticity is essential to learning and memory in the brain; it has therefore also been implicated in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, making measuring the state of neuroplasticity of foremost importance to clinical neuroscience. Long-term potentiation (LTP) is a key mechanism of neuroplasticity and has been studied extensively, and invasively in non-human animals. Translation to human application largely relies on the validation of non-invasive measures of LTP. The current study presents a generative thalamocortical computational model of visual cortex for investigating and replicating interlaminar connectivity changes using non-invasive EEG recording of humans. The model is combined with a commonly used visual sensory LTP paradigm and fit to the empirical EEG data using dynamic causal modelling. The thalamocortical model demonstrated remarkable accuracy recapitulating post-tetanus changes seen in invasive research, including increased excitatory connectivity from thalamus to layer IV and from layer IV to II/III, established major sites of LTP in visual cortex. These findings provide justification for the implementation of the presented thalamocortical model for ERP research, including to provide increased detail on the nature of changes that underlie LTP induced in visual cortex. Future applications include translating rodent findings to non-invasive research in humans concerning deficits to LTP that may underlie neurological and psychiatric disease.

Multicellular organization is particularly vulnerable to conflicts between different cell types when the body forms from initially isolated cells, as in aggregative multicellular microbes. Like other functions of the multicellular phase, coordinated collective movement can be undermined by conflicts between cells that spend energy in fuelling motion and 'cheaters' that get carried along. The evolutionary stability of collective behaviours against such conflicts is typically addressed in populations that undergo extrinsically imposed phases of aggregation and dispersal. Here, via a shift in perspective, we propose that aggregative multicellular cycles may have emerged as a way to temporally compartmentalize social conflicts. Through an eco-evolutionary mathematical model that accounts for individual and collective strategies of resource acquisition, we address regimes where different motility types coexist. Particularly interesting is the oscillatory regime that, similarly to life cycles of aggregative multicellular organisms, alternates on the timescale of several cell generations phases of prevalent solitary living and starvation-triggered aggregation. Crucially, such self-organized oscillations emerge as a result of evolution of cell traits associated to conflict escalation within multicellular aggregates.

A streaming assembly pipeline utilising real-time Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT) sequencing data is important for saving sequencing resources and reducing time-to-result. A previous approach implemented in npScarf provided an efficient streaming algorithm for hybrid assembly but was relatively prone to mis-assemblies compared to other graph-based methods. Here we present npGraph, a streaming hybrid assembly tool using the assembly graph instead of the separated pre-assembly contigs. It is able to produce more complete genome assembly by resolving the path finding problem on the assembly graph using long reads as the traversing guide. Application to synthetic and real data from bacterial isolate genomes show improved accuracy while still maintaining a low computational cost. npGraph also provides a graphical user interface (GUI) which provides a real-time visualisation of the progress of assembly. The tool and source code is available at https://github.com/hsnguyen/assembly.

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

The household secondary attack risk (SAR), often called the secondary attack rate or secondary infection risk, is the probability of infectious contact from an infectious household member A to a given household member B, where we define infectious contact to be a contact sufficient to infect B if he or she is susceptible. Estimation of the SAR is an important part of understanding and controlling the transmission of infectious diseases. In practice, it is most often estimated using binomial models such as logistic regression, which implicitly attribute all secondary infections in a household to the primary case. In the simplest case, the number of secondary infections in a household with m susceptibles and a single primary case is modeled as a binomial(m, p) random variable where p is the SAR. Although it has long been understood that transmission within households is not binomial, it is thought that multiple generations of transmission can be neglected safely when p is small. We use probability generating functions and simulations to show that this is a mistake. The proportion of susceptible household members infected can be substantially larger than the SAR even when p is small. As a result, binomial estimates of the SAR are biased upward and their confidence intervals have poor coverage probabilities even if adjusted for clustering. Accurate point and interval estimates of the SAR can be obtained using longitudinal chain binomial models or pairwise survival analysis, which account for multiple generations of transmission within households, the ongoing risk of infection from outside the household, and incomplete follow-up. We illustrate the practical implications of these results in an analysis of household surveillance data collected by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic.

The impact of GABAergic transmission on neuronal excitability depends on the Cl--gradient across membranes. However, the Cl--fluxes through GABAA receptors alter the intracellular Cl- concentration ([Cl-]i) and in turn attenuate GABAergic responses, a process termed ionic plasticity. Recently it has been shown that coincident glutamatergic inputs significantly affect ionic plasticity. Yet how the [Cl-]i changes depend on the properties of glutamatergic inputs and their spatiotemporal relation to GABAergic stimuli is unknown. To investigate this issue, we used compartmental biophysical models of Cl- dynamics simulating either a simple ball-and-stick topology or a reconstructed CA3 neuron. These computational experiments demonstrated that glutamatergic co-stimulation enhances GABA receptor-mediated Cl- influx at low and attenuates or reverses the Cl- efflux at high initial [Cl-]i. The size of glutamatergic influence on GABAergic Cl--fluxes depends on the conductance, decay kinetics, and localization of glutamatergic inputs. Surprisingly, the glutamatergic shift in GABAergic Cl--fluxes is invariant to latencies between GABAergic and glutamatergic inputs over a substantial interval. In agreement with experimental data, simulations in a reconstructed CA3 pyramidal neuron with physiological patterns of correlated activity revealed that coincident glutamatergic synaptic inputs contribute significantly to the activity-dependent [Cl-]i changes. Whereas the influence of spatial correlation between distributed glutamatergic and GABAergic inputs was negligible, their temporal correlation played a significant role. In summary, our results demonstrate that glutamatergic co-stimulation had a substantial impact on ionic plasticity of GABAergic responses, enhancing the attenuation of GABAergic inhibition in the mature nervous systems, but suppressing GABAergic [Cl-]i changes in the immature brain. Therefore, glutamatergic shift in GABAergic Cl--fluxes should be considered as a relevant factor of short-term plasticity.

Tumors contain multiple subpopulations of genetically distinct cancer cells. Reconstructing their evolutionary history can improve our understanding of how cancers develop and respond to treatment. Subclonal reconstruction methods cluster mutations into groups that co-occur within the same subpopulations, estimate the frequency of cells belonging to each subpopulation, and infer the ancestral relationships among the subpopulations by constructing a clone tree. However, often multiple clone trees are consistent with the data and current methods do not efficiently capture this uncertainty; nor can these methods scale to clone trees with a large number of subclonal populations. Here, we formalize the notion of a partially-defined clone tree (partial clone tree for short) that defines a subset of the pairwise ancestral relationships in a clone tree, thereby implicitly representing the set of all clone trees that have these defined pairwise relationships. Also, we introduce a special partial clone tree, the Maximally-Constrained Ancestral Reconstruction (MAR), which summarizes all clone trees fitting the input data equally well. Finally, we extend commonly used clone tree validity conditions to apply to partial clone trees and describe SubMARine, a polynomial-time algorithm producing the subMAR, which approximates the MAR and guarantees that its defined relationships are a subset of those present in the MAR. We also extend SubMARine to work with subclonal copy number aberrations and define equivalence constraints for this purpose. Further, we extend SubMARine to permit noise in the estimates of the subclonal frequencies while retaining its validity conditions and guarantees. In contrast to other clone tree reconstruction methods, SubMARine runs in time and space that scale polynomially in the number of subclones. We show through extensive noise-free simulation, a large lung cancer dataset and a prostate cancer dataset that the subMAR equals the MAR in all cases where only a single clone tree exists and that it is a perfect match to the MAR in most of the other cases. Notably, SubMARine runs in less than 70 seconds on a single thread with less than one Gb of memory on all datasets presented in this paper, including ones with 50 nodes in a clone tree. On the real-world data, SubMARine almost perfectly recovers the previously reported trees and identifies minor errors made in the expert-driven reconstructions of those trees. The freely-available open-source code implementing SubMARine can be downloaded at https://github.com/morrislab/submarine.

The study of transcription remains one of the centerpieces of modern biology with implications in settings from development to metabolism to evolution to disease. Precision measurements using a host of different techniques including fluorescence and sequencing readouts have raised the bar for what it means to quantitatively understand transcriptional regulation. In particular our understanding of the simplest genetic circuit is sufficiently refined both experimentally and theoretically that it has become possible to carefully discriminate between different conceptual pictures of how this regulatory system works. This regulatory motif, originally posited by Jacob and Monod in the 1960s, consists of a single transcriptional repressor binding to a promoter site and inhibiting transcription. In this paper, we show how seven distinct models of this so-called simple-repression motif, based both on thermodynamic and kinetic thinking, can be used to derive the predicted levels of gene expression and shed light on the often surprising past success of the thermodynamic models. These different models are then invoked to confront a variety of different data on mean, variance and full gene expression distributions, illustrating the extent to which such models can and cannot be distinguished, and suggesting a two-state model with a distribution of burst sizes as the most potent of the seven for describing the simple-repression motif.

The fitness landscape is a concept commonly used to describe evolution towards optimal phenotypes. It can be reduced to mechanistic detail using genome-scale models (GEMs) from systems biology. We use recently developed GEMs of Metabolism and protein Expression (ME-models) to study the distribution of Escherichia coli phenotypes on the rate-yield plane. We found that the measured phenotypes distribute non-uniformly to form a highly stratified fitness landscape. Systems analysis of the ME-model simulations suggest that this stratification results from discrete ATP generation strategies. Accordingly, we define "aero-types", a phenotypic trait that characterizes how a balanced proteome can achieve a given growth rate by modulating 1) the relative utilization of oxidative phosphorylation, glycolysis, and fermentation pathways; and 2) the differential employment of electron-transport-chain enzymes. This global, quantitative, and mechanistic systems biology interpretation of fitness landscape formed upon proteome allocation offers a fundamental understanding of bacterial physiology and evolution dynamics.

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual's contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual's positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual's biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

The partial success of tumor immunotherapy induced by checkpoint blockade, which is not antigen-specific, suggests that the immune system of some patients contain antigen receptors able to specifically identify tumor cells. Here we focused on T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires associated with spontaneous breast cancer. We studied the alpha and beta chain CDR3 domains of TCR repertoires of CD4 T cells using deep sequencing of cell populations in mice and applied the results to published TCR sequence data obtained from human patients. We screened peripheral blood T cells obtained monthly from individual mice spontaneously developing breast tumors by 5 months. We then looked at identical TCR sequences in published human studies; we used TCGA data from tumors and healthy tissues of 1,256 breast cancer resections and from 4 focused studies including sequences from tumors, lymph nodes, blood and healthy tissues, and from single cell dataset of 3 breast cancer subjects. We now report that mice spontaneously developing breast cancer manifest shared, Public CDR3 regions in both their alpha and beta and that a significant number of women with early breast cancer manifest identical CDR3 sequences. These findings suggest that the development of breast cancer is associated, across species, with biomarker, exclusive TCR repertoires.

The mechanisms and design principles of regulatory systems establishing stable polarized protein patterns within cells are well studied. However, cells can also dynamically control their cell polarity. Here, we ask how an upstream signaling system can switch the orientation of a polarized pattern. We use a mathematical model of a core polarity system based on three proteins as the basis to study different mechanisms of signal-induced polarity switching. The analysis of this model reveals four general classes of switching mechanisms with qualitatively distinct behaviors: the transient oscillator switch, the reset switch, the prime-release switch, and the push switch. Each of these regulatory mechanisms effectively implements the function of a spatial toggle switch, however with different characteristics in their nonlinear and stochastic dynamics. We identify these characteristics and also discuss experimental signatures of each type of switching mechanism.

Computational protein design has the ambitious goal of crafting novel proteins that address challenges in biology and medicine. To overcome these challenges, the computational protein modeling suite Rosetta has been tailored to address various protein design tasks. Recently, statistical methods have been developed that identify correlated mutations between residues in a multiple sequence alignment of homologous proteins. These subtle inter-dependencies in the occupancy of residue positions throughout evolution are crucial for protein function, but we found that three current Rosetta design approaches fail to recover these co-evolutionary couplings. Thus, we developed the Rosetta method ResCue (residue-coupling enhanced) that leverages co-evolutionary information to favor sequences which recapitulate correlated mutations, as observed in nature. To assess the protocols via recapitulation designs, we compiled a benchmark of ten proteins each represented by two, structurally diverse states. We could demonstrate that ResCue designed sequences with an average sequence recovery rate of 70%, whereas three other protocols reached not more than 50%, on average. Our approach had higher recovery rates also for functionally important residues, which were studied in detail. This improvement has only a minor negative effect on the fitness of the designed sequences as assessed by Rosetta energy. In conclusion, our findings support the idea that informing protocols with co-evolutionary signals helps to design stable and native-like proteins that are compatible with the different conformational states required for a complex function.

Working memory capacity can be improved by recoding the memorized information in a condensed form. Here, we tested the theory that human adults encode binary sequences of stimuli in memory using an abstract internal language and a recursive compression algorithm. The theory predicts that the psychological complexity of a given sequence should be proportional to the length of its shortest description in the proposed language, which can capture any nested pattern of repetitions and alternations using a limited number of instructions. Five experiments examine the capacity of the theory to predict human adults' memory for a variety of auditory and visual sequences. We probed memory using a sequence violation paradigm in which participants attempted to detect occasional violations in an otherwise fixed sequence. Both subjective complexity ratings and objective violation detection performance were well predicted by our theoretical measure of complexity, which simply reflects a weighted sum of the number of elementary instructions and digits in the shortest formula that captures the sequence in our language. While a simpler transition probability model, when tested as a single predictor in the statistical analyses, accounted for significant variance in the data, the goodness-of-fit with the data significantly improved when the language-based complexity measure was included in the statistical model, while the variance explained by the transition probability model largely decreased. Model comparison also showed that shortest description length in a recursive language provides a better fit than six alternative previously proposed models of sequence encoding. The data support the hypothesis that, beyond the extraction of statistical knowledge, human sequence coding relies on an internal compression using language-like nested structures.

DNA topoisomerase II-β (TOP2B) is fundamental to remove topological problems linked to DNA metabolism and 3D chromatin architecture, but its cut-and-reseal catalytic mechanism can accidentally cause DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) that can seriously compromise genome integrity. Understanding the factors that determine the genome-wide distribution of TOP2B is therefore not only essential for a complete knowledge of genome dynamics and organization, but also for the implications of TOP2-induced DSBs in the origin of oncogenic translocations and other types of chromosomal rearrangements. Here, we conduct a machine-learning approach for the prediction of TOP2B binding using publicly available sequencing data. We achieve highly accurate predictions, with accessible chromatin and architectural factors being the most informative features. Strikingly, TOP2B is sufficiently explained by only three features: DNase I hypersensitivity, CTCF and cohesin binding, for which genome-wide data are widely available. Based on this, we develop a predictive model for TOP2B genome-wide binding that can be used across cell lines and species, and generate virtual probability tracks that accurately mirror experimental ChIP-seq data. Our results deepen our knowledge on how the accessibility and 3D organization of chromatin determine TOP2B function, and constitute a proof of principle regarding the in silico prediction of sequence-independent chromatin-binding factors.

Glycolysis is a conserved central pathway in energy metabolism that converts glucose to pyruvate with net production of two ATP molecules. Because ATP is produced only in the lower part of glycolysis (LG), preceded by an initial investment of ATP in the upper glycolysis (UG), achieving robust start-up of the pathway upon activation presents a challenge: a sudden increase in glucose concentration can throw a cell into a self-sustaining imbalanced state in which UG outpaces LG, glycolytic intermediates accumulate and the cell is unable to maintain high ATP concentration needed to support cellular functions. Such metabolic imbalance can result in "substrate-accelerated death", a phenomenon observed in prokaryotes and eukaryotes when cells are exposed to an excess of substrate that previously limited growth. Here, we address why evolution has apparently not eliminated such a costly vulnerability and propose that it is a manifestation of an evolutionary trade-off, whereby the glycolysis pathway is adapted to quickly secure scarce or fluctuating resource at the expense of vulnerability in an environment with ample resource. To corroborate this idea, we perform individual-based eco-evolutionary simulations of a simplified yeast glycolysis pathway consisting of UG, LG, phosphate transport between a vacuole and a cytosol, and a general ATP demand reaction. The pathway is evolved in constant or fluctuating resource environments by allowing mutations that affect the (maximum) reaction rate constants, reflecting changing expression levels of different glycolytic enzymes. We demonstrate that under limited constant resource, populations evolve to a genotype that exhibits balanced dynamics in the environment it evolved in, but strongly imbalanced dynamics under ample resource conditions. Furthermore, when resource availability is fluctuating, imbalanced dynamics confers a fitness advantage over balanced dynamics: when glucose is abundant, imbalanced pathways can quickly accumulate the glycolytic intermediate FBP as intracellular storage that is used during periods of starvation to maintain high ATP concentration needed for growth. Our model further predicts that in fluctuating environments, competition for glucose can result in stable coexistence of balanced and imbalanced cells, as well as repeated cycles of population crashes and recoveries that depend on such polymorphism. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of ecological and evolutionary arguments for understanding seemingly maladaptive aspects of cellular metabolism.

The coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, uses -1 programmed ribosomal frameshifting (-1 PRF) to control the relative expression of viral proteins. As modulating -1 PRF can inhibit viral replication, the RNA pseudoknot stimulating -1 PRF may be a fruitful target for therapeutics treating COVID-19. We modeled the unusual 3-stem structure of the stimulatory pseudoknot of SARS-CoV-2 computationally, using multiple blind structural prediction tools followed by μs-long molecular dynamics simulations. The results were compared for consistency with nuclease-protection assays and single-molecule force spectroscopy measurements of the SARS-CoV-1 pseudoknot, to determine the most likely conformations. We found several possible conformations for the SARS-CoV-2 pseudoknot, all having an extended stem 3 but with different packing of stems 1 and 2. Several conformations featured rarely-seen threading of a single strand through junctions formed between two helices. These structural models may help interpret future experiments and support efforts to discover ligands inhibiting -1 PRF in SARS-CoV-2.

Fitting stochastic transmission models to electronic patient data can offer detailed insights into the transmission of healthcare-associated infections and improve infection control. Pathogen whole-genome sequencing may improve the precision of model inferences, but computational constraints have limited modelling applications predominantly to small datasets and specific outbreaks, whereas large-scale sequencing studies have mostly relied on simple rules for identifying/excluding plausible transmission. We present a novel approach for integrating detailed epidemiological data on patient contact networks in hospitals with large-scale pathogen sequencing data. We apply our approach to study Clostridioides difficile transmission using a dataset of 1223 infections in Oxfordshire, UK, 2007-2011. 262 (21% [95% credibility interval 20-22%]) infections were estimated to have been acquired from another known case. There was heterogeneity by sequence type (ST) in the proportion of cases acquired from another case with the highest rates in ST1 (ribotype-027), ST42 (ribotype-106) and ST3 (ribotype-001). These same STs also had higher rates of transmission mediated via environmental contamination/spores persisting after patient discharge/recovery; for ST1 these persisted longer than for most other STs except ST3 and ST42. We also identified variation in transmission between hospitals, medical specialties and over time; by 2011 nearly all transmission from known cases had ceased in our hospitals. Our findings support previous work suggesting only a minority of C. difficile infections are acquired from known cases but highlight a greater role for environmental contamination than previously thought. Our approach is applicable to other healthcare-associated infections. Our findings have important implications for effective control of C. difficile.

Plant mitochondrial genomes have distinctive features compared to those of animals; namely, they are large and divergent, with sizes ranging from hundreds of thousands of to a few million bases. Recombination among repetitive regions is thought to produce similar structures that differ slightly, known as "multipartite structures," which contribute to different phenotypes. Although many reference plant mitochondrial genomes represent almost all the genes in mitochondria, the full spectrum of their structures remains largely unknown. The emergence of long-read sequencing technology is expected to yield this landscape; however, many studies aimed to assemble only one representative circular genome, because properly understanding multipartite structures using existing assemblers is not feasible. To elucidate multipartite structures, we leveraged the information in existing reference genomes and classified long reads according to their corresponding structures. We developed a method that exploits two classic algorithms, partial order alignment (POA) and the hidden Markov model (HMM) to construct a sensitive read classifier. This method enables us to represent a set of reads as a POA graph and analyze it using the HMM. We can then calculate the likelihood of a read occurring in a given cluster, resulting in an iterative clustering algorithm. For synthetic data, our proposed method reliably detected one variation site out of 9,000-bp synthetic long reads with a 15% sequencing-error rate and produced accurate clustering. It was also capable of clustering long reads from six very similar sequences containing only slight differences. For real data, we assembled putative multipartite structures of mitochondrial genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana from nine accessions sequenced using PacBio Sequel. The results indicated that there are recurrent and strain-specific structures in A. thaliana mitochondrial genomes.

Nucleosome positioning in the genome is essential for the regulation of many nuclear processes. We currently have limited capability to predict nucleosome positioning in vivo, especially the locations and sizes of nucleosome depleted regions (NDRs). Here, we present a thermodynamic model that incorporates the intrinsic affinity of histones, competitive binding of sequence-specific factors, and nucleosome remodeling to predict nucleosome positioning in budding yeast. The model shows that the intrinsic affinity of histones, at near-saturating histone concentration, is not sufficient in generating NDRs in the genome. However, the binding of a few factors, especially RSC towards GC-rich and poly(A/T) sequences, allows us to predict ~ 66% of genome-wide NDRs. The model also shows that nucleosome remodeling activity is required to predict the correct NDR sizes. The validity of the model was further supported by the agreement between the predicted and the measured nucleosome positioning upon factor deletion or on exogenous sequences introduced into yeast. Overall, our model quantitatively evaluated the impact of different genetic components on NDR formation and illustrated the vital roles of sequence-specific factors and nucleosome remodeling in this process.

Experimental single-cell approaches are becoming widely used for many purposes, including investigation of the dynamic behaviour of developing biological systems. Consequently, a large number of computational methods for extracting dynamic information from such data have been developed. One example is RNA velocity analysis, in which spliced and unspliced RNA abundances are jointly modeled in order to infer a 'direction of change' and thereby a future state for each cell in the gene expression space. Naturally, the accuracy and interpretability of the inferred RNA velocities depend crucially on the correctness of the estimated abundances. Here, we systematically compare five widely used quantification tools, in total yielding thirteen different quantification approaches, in terms of their estimates of spliced and unspliced RNA abundances in five experimental droplet scRNA-seq data sets. We show that there are substantial differences between the quantifications obtained from different tools, and identify typical genes for which such discrepancies are observed. We further show that these abundance differences propagate to the downstream analysis, and can have a large effect on estimated velocities as well as the biological interpretation. Our results highlight that abundance quantification is a crucial aspect of the RNA velocity analysis workflow, and that both the definition of the genomic features of interest and the quantification algorithm itself require careful consideration.